Post by Kasey on Apr 9, 2020 17:04:39 GMT -8
As I sit in in my office, I ponder the complete lack of normalcy among the rest of the offices in the firm We comprises the floor of this downtown law firm. With the exception of a few essential comings and goings, the traffic of attorneys, assistants, clerks and clients is nearly at a standstill.
As a a two-year veteran of this firm, and the only of 14 attorneys living in downtown Portland, I've been the only occupant here for much of this time. That is, myself and one assistant of another attorney who also lives nearby. Everyone else is working from home, with the exceptions of weekly check-ins from our office manager. I'm holding down the fort, so to speak. The conference room has gone unused for weeks now. In the age of the coronavirus, this is our new normal; if only for a time.
At some point, the real normal will return. Meetings with clients will resume, research will be done. Attorneys will be heading off to Court appointments and other business in the pursuit of justice. That's the day – or shall I say – the beginning of days this floor will look like it's old self again. While it's terrific to complete work without distraction, I look forward to those times because something now … well, something just is not right.
No one knows exactly when that might be. From the information I've gathered from the higher ups, it will likely happen gradually. Inevitably, we all just want it to happen, though we know it could take several months.
And it's not just the work of my office or in the offices of the surrounding buildings, city, state, country and world. It's the play as well. Right now, COVID-19 has effectively taken away all of our fun.
I ponder the sports teams and sports leagues I adore following. All of them made very responsible decisions to postpone, suspend or cancel their seasons. The IFL, MLB, MLS and NWSL were just getting started on their seasons. The NBA, WHL and NHL were set to finish theirs and go into the ever-coveted playoffs. The NFL may be the most fortunate, as it has a bit of time before its August pre-season kicks off. That's four months to monitor the situation and come up with a plan depending upon the advice of health officials both locally and nationally.
What is that return for these leagues going to look like? For one, it's a good bet the stands will be empty, at least initially. The U.S. President says it's going to happen quickly. That is not only unlikely, it's really not even up to him. Each league is going to have to follow the lead of the governors of states in which teams are based.
For instance, the NBA may eye a return as soon as sometime in May in order to complete the season with playoffs or in another format. In looking at the NBA model, if say, Governor Gavin Newsom of California does not clear the way for a safe return of the necessary crowd sizes in his state, there will be no playoff basketball taking place in Los Angeles. With the Lakers and Clippers both being playoff bound, it's unimaginable that the NBA would go ahead and hold playoffs in the league's favorite market. The league's bias toward the Lakers in particular aside, that's just another hurdle.
Now, take the California model and apply it to every other state with a limit of persons which can gather. Those are some pretty hefty markets when you consider putting something together to get players back on the court. Don't forget, it's not just fans which make up a crowd. It's players, coaches, training staffs, arena staffs, team staffs, media and, well the list does go on.
The same applies to every other sport and to every other league. What of the IFL's San Diego Strike Force and Oakland Panthers? How about Washington's newly returned Spokane Shock? And Arizona's Rattlers and Tucson Sugar Skulls? The Frisco (Texas) Fighters? North Dakota's Bismarck Bucks and South Dakota's Sioux Falls Storm might be all right. Iowa's Barnstormers and Cedar Rapids River Kings might have a shot. The Quad City Steamwheelers and Duke City Gladiators? Well, not so much.
The bottom line here is that there is no bottom line when it comes to dealing with individual states.
By all credible accounts, coronavirus testing in the United States is still lagging behind. Even with that, the numbers are staggering. Testing just is not available for everyone who needs to be tested. No, at this point, we have a very small sampling of the numbers of confirmed infected and deaths.
It's not going to get better anytime soon. Reports that the numbers in New York and New Jersey, two of the states most affected by the virus, has “leveled off” is nothing but Fool's Gold. At this point, the only thing which has leveled off is the ability to test and the availability to test. It won't be until then when we know the real numbers which are undoubtedly out there.
That's not hyperbole. That's simple fact. These numbers will be going up, and they will be going up significantly. There is absolutely no question of that.
That puts the potential return of any sports league in jeopardy. We just don't know. Each league is putting forth contingency plans for any scenario. That's great. That's what they should be doing. That's what I do with each case I work for a client. The only issue is which of those contingency plans will come into play if/when the leagues get a go-ahead from those states in which it has venues.
Governors have groups working with health officials in each state to advise them of the best course of action. If those reports indicate the situation is getting worse, which is much, much more likely than the alternative, sports as we know it could be shut down for several months yet to come; perhaps even longer.
This all may sound pessimistic. There is a reason for that – this is a very pessimistic situation. The coronavirus doesn't care if you like football, basketball, hockey, baseball, soccer or any other sport. It's just fine affecting our enjoyment of all of them. It's not too picky in that fashion. It would be great to turn that pessimism into optimism, but we're really not at that point. In my own state of Oregon, it's projected that late April is when we'll see the apex of the line on a graph of confirmed cases. That, given the lack of available tests, is overly optimistic. From my research and from what I'm told by qualified experts, you could probably add about four weeks to that estimate.
I hope that's not the case, but I would be surprised if it does not fall into that pattern.
Overall, we may see some form of the NFL begin its season on time, or near to it. As for the other leagues, my prediction is that they will not. But hey, that's just a prediction, right? Nearly all of us predict the winner of the Super Bowl every year, but does that prevent us from actually watching the game?
As we strive to get back to some normalcy in the wake of this virus, it's great to be optimistic. However, it's more prudent to be realistic, even if that involves a solid dose of pessimism. That is, after all, where we are.
It's going to take some time, but our teams and leagues will be back at some point. We'll be in the stands watching, cheering and maybe even screaming at our least-favorite referee. But, we will get there.
Just as this corridor, through which I am about to leave my office for the day, will get back to it's own sense of normalcy as well.
~MKM
In Kassandra's Words began on the Blazers Blogger Network and continues here on this site. Relocating this blog allows me to include Blazers blogs, but to also expand it to other sports and teams, as well as matters of the forum itself. I encourage comments. However, I request that comments be directed toward the topic presented.
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