Post by alecs on Mar 6, 2024 9:30:08 GMT -8
Happy Wednesday, IFL Fans!
The calendar has finally turned over to March, unquestionably the best month in sports! We’ve got March Madness right around the corner, the NHL and NBA playoff pushes heating up, and more importantly for this post, the beginning of the new IFL season! The 16th season of the league will get underway in ten days, when the Northern Arizona Wranglers host the Arizona Rattlers to open the slate. A lot has transpired in the world of spring/indoor football since last August’s IFL Championship, and even more leaguewide storylines have emerged throughout the offseason. Which begs the inevitable question: How will it all shake out?
That’s what that I will bravely attempt to answer today. Using game statistics from a season ago, blended with adjustments based on offseason activity and other factors, I number-crunched and set up a simulation of the 2024 League standings. And because I’m a crazy person, I brought Excel to the brink of total collapse and ran the exercise 1,000 times to come up with a voluminous sample of outcomes, with the average win-loss record listed beside each team in the preview. The top four teams in each conference will advance to the playoffs, and with two new incoming transfers from the NAL (Jacksonville Sharks and San Antonio Gunslingers), that task becomes more difficult than ever. Who does the model predict will play postseason football?
Starting with the Western Conference:
1. Tucson Sugar Skulls (12-4, playoff percentage 90%)
Don’t think a lot of people will dispute this one, as Tucson essentially won the offseason the moment they traded for Drew Powell in November. The former MVP gets infused into a lineup that already has playoff experience from each of the past two seasons, so the winning formula is already firmly established. The Skulls will hold out hope that Powell is the final piece who can take them from fringe contender to serious threat for the title. They should be among the top favorites whenever the Futures market opens.
2. Arizona Rattlers (12-4, playoff percentage 90%)
On the other side of the fall’s blockbuster deal, the Rattlers acquired Ramone Atkins from Tucson (who has since signed with Nashville of the resurrected AFL). But it’s the other big-name quarterback they signed who will open as the Week 1 starter – reigning IFL Championship MVP Dalton Sneed. His storyline of 2024 will be whether he can retain the scorching efficiency that led him to last year’s title run with Bay Area; the signal-caller surrendered just four turnovers all of last season, including zero in the three playoff games. The competition will be fierce to remain among the West’s top two teams, but you can’t ever count out Kevin Guy’s battle-tested Rattlers.
3. Bay Area Panthers (10-6, playoff percentage 89%)
Moving along the Western quarterback carousel with a look at the defending champions, who the model predicts to be on pace for a double-digit win season despite Sneed bolting for the desert this fall. The torch in San Jose passes to Da’Quan Neal, brought over to the Bay after spending last season in Vegas. The Panthers also return several key players on both sides of the ball from their 2023 run, giving them a lot of continuity which should help them set the tone early on. And if Neal can stay on the field after some rough injury luck the past couple years, the sky is the limit for these California cats in their quest for a repeat.
4. San Diego Strike Force (8-8, playoff percentage 45%)
Outside of the top three teams in the West, the other playoff spot is up for the taking for the rest of the field. The model projects San Diego as the most likely team to round out the Western playoff picture, with Nate Davis back at the QB spot, along with an improving defense that could further elevate the team’s overall upside if that unit can tap into its potential. Even in seeing some notable players depart in free agency, like RB Eddie Vander and WR Kentrez Bell, the pieces are still in place for a potential run to a first postseason berth; the next step is achieving the level of execution needed to get there.
5. Northern Arizona Wranglers (7-9, playoff percentage 36%)
NAZ will enter 2024 with several questions to address, with a roster that currently contains several first-year players and local talents trying to make names for themselves. It’s a formula that can work if you find enough gems amongst the youngsters, and the Wranglers executed this strategy to perfection just a couple years ago. They’ll almost certainly have to kickstart their offense, which in 2023 was last in the IFL in points per game, to claim a third straight playoff appearance.
6. San Antonio Gunslingers (5-11, playoff percentage 20%)
Our first extended look at the IFL’s newest franchise, the ‘Guns were a playoff team in the 2023 NAL season, but dropped their first-round matchup to the Carolina Cobras. Notably, they amassed an 8-4 record despite a minus-37 point differential on the season. At present, the lone QB on the roster is Sam Castronova, who had built a reputation as one of the NAL’s finest signal-callers. Only time will tell what kind of supporting cast he’ll be suiting up with, and how the team will be able to adjust to a new league ruleset. Right now, San Antonio projects somewhere around 5th or 6th place on average, with an opportunity to grow the more we see them play and adjust.
7. Vegas Knight Hawks (5-11, playoff percentage 18%)
It’s a big season upcoming for Mike Davis and the third-year Knight Hawks, who are still seeking their first taste of postseason action. Either Jorge Reyna or Ja’rome Johnson will likely open as the starting QB – and they did sign Antonio Wimbush to bolster the running back spot – but the next step for Vegas will be to string together solid performances more consistently and more frequently than we have seen in their first two campaigns. Until they get to that point, it’s tough to project more than six or seven wins to them right now in what is likely to be a hyper-competitive Western Conference.
8. Duke City Gladiators (4-12, playoff percentage 12%)
The Gladiators did a respectable job of staying competitive for as long as they could last year after the Nate Davis trade, but the reality is that sub-par QB play could be a recurring storyline once again in 2024. Either Taz Wilson or Jayru Campbell will start the season under center, and even with the additions of 2021 Champions Justin Stockton and Laquvionte Gonzales, the sledding could be rough if neither QB can establish himself early on. At least they retained “The Most Interesting Man in the World” Ernesto Lacayo!
And now, for the projections in the Eastern Conference:
1. Frisco Fighters (13-3, playoff percentage 95%)
Without a shadow of a doubt, the Fighters should still be considered the class of the East despite knockouts in the semifinal round in each of their first three seasons. After all, they boast a ridiculous regular season win percentage above 80% (37-7), and with reigning league MVP T.J. Edwards re-signing last week, it’s all gas and no brakes in Frisco. No team in the East can provide a strong enough argument to rank above the Fighters, the question becomes if they can ultimately break down that playoff barrier that’s kept them away from a championship appearance to this point.
2. Massachusetts Pirates (10-6, playoff percentage 75%)
A potentially defining season awaits the Pirates in 2024, as they have found a new home in Lowell after spending their first five seasons in Worcester. Thus far, they’ve got a lone championship sandwiched in between two pairs of disappointing first-round exits. The story of 2023, though, was wretched road play. The Pirates lost their final four games last season – all on the road – while managing to stage an ill-advised impression of the 1979 Boston Bruins in the process. For 2024, they retain much of the core they’ve had so much success with, while also building and developing young talent throughout the rest of the roster. Like the Fighters, the track record speaks for itself, and it’s a tough one to bet against as Massachusetts seeks its sixth playoff berth in as many seasons of existence.
3. Jacksonville Sharks (9-7, playoff percentage 64%)
Enter yet another team that’s had a prolonged history of success throughout its entire history, dating all the way back to their first season in 2010 in the Arena Football League. That history includes August’s 2023 NAL Championship, and now they set their sights on a third different Arena/Indoor football trophy (along with a victory in ArenaBowl XXIV in 2011). The roster looks significantly different than the one that claimed greatness last August, but the Sharks have more than earned some benefit of the doubt as they embark on their inaugural IFL campaign. And with a fairly recent precedent of immediate NAL-to-IFL success (see: 2021 Pirates), it should come as no surprise if the Sharks push their IFL debut deep into the summer.
4. Green Bay Blizzard (8-8, playoff percentage 55%)
Green Bay has spent the past couple years on the outskirts of a playoff spot, and 2024 projects to be the year they finally get some bounces their way and make a concerted run at a playoff berth, which would be their first in the post-Covid era. Max Meylor will take over full-time QB duties, and linebacker James Brown returns to bolster a defense that’s trending upward. One name to keep an eye on: rookie RB E.J. Burgess. The former Franklin Pierce Raven (D2) had a standout career at Rindge and could carry some sneaky Offensive Rookie of the Year appeal.
5. Sioux Falls Storm (7-9, playoff percentage 51%)
A new era dawns in South Dakota, with Kurtiss Riggs retiring after a two-decades long run as the Storm head coach. Quarterback Lorenzo Brown has also retired, so it will be an entirely different feel for this team in 2024. They still have the talent to compete, particularly at wide receiver with the addition of Kentrez Bell, who was an all-league nomination last year with San Diego. It will be quite the test for first-year head coach Andre Fields to return the Storm to the level of success that’s come so frequently to them throughout the Riggs tenure, but the reigning Eastern Champions will certainly be a tough out for any opponent they're up against.
6. Quad City Steamwheelers (7-9, playoff percentage 38%)
The 2022 Eastern Conference Champs entered last season with sky-high expectations, and they were delivering in the early part of the season. But a brutal string of injuries and other strokes of misfortune caused Quad City to run out of steam by the end of the season, as evidenced by their whimpering first-round loss at Frisco. And without E.J. Hilliard listed on the 2024 roster, the hopes ride on new faces like Eddie Vander and Todd Athey to come in and produce right off the bat. Cory Ross is among the best coaches in the business, so it shouldn’t come as a surprise if he can round his squad into shape.
7. Tulsa Oilers (6-10, playoff percentage 12%)
Lots of hope for Tulsa’s franchise entering 2024, particularly with the two-year league trend of “worst-to-first” still running. The Oilers look to supplement last year’s core with more high-impact additions brought in via free agency, trying to become the third consecutive team to win a title the season following a dead-last finish. They’ll have to earn it the hard way, going up against the league’s most difficult schedule, but they certainly can’t be counted out if a team or two currently projected above them falters.
8. Iowa Barnstormers (5-11, playoff percentage 10%)
Every year, there seems to be at least one or two teams that just get snake-bitten en route to a lost season. The Iowa Barnstormers are the quintessential team that comes to mind when reflecting on 2023. After an early season-ending injury to D.J. Peterson, Iowa was clearly overmatched for the majority of the season (even though they had the two highest point outputs of 2023 in spike games against the Pirates and Steamwheelers). Peterson will make his long-awaited return to the lineup to start the season. The problem is, he’ll need to gel with an entirely new cast of players joining him on offense. And the defense still has some improvements to make after surrendering over 50 points per game a season ago.
Projected Playoff Bracket:
[1] Tucson over [4] San Diego
[2] Arizona over [3] Bay Area
[1] Frisco over [4] Green Bay
[2] Massachusetts over [3] Jacksonville
[1] Tucson over [2] Arizona
[1] Frisco over [2] Massachusetts
IFL Championship: [1] Tucson over [1] Frisco
I’m prepared for a lot of surprises throughout the next nineteen weeks of action, looking forward to the many twists and turns along the way!
Don’t forget to check back in next Wednesday for the launch of Season 2 of “Wager Wednesday”, which will feature a complementary video segment live on my YouTube channel, a new feature to look forward to this season. More info to come on that as we get closer to it.
The calendar has finally turned over to March, unquestionably the best month in sports! We’ve got March Madness right around the corner, the NHL and NBA playoff pushes heating up, and more importantly for this post, the beginning of the new IFL season! The 16th season of the league will get underway in ten days, when the Northern Arizona Wranglers host the Arizona Rattlers to open the slate. A lot has transpired in the world of spring/indoor football since last August’s IFL Championship, and even more leaguewide storylines have emerged throughout the offseason. Which begs the inevitable question: How will it all shake out?
That’s what that I will bravely attempt to answer today. Using game statistics from a season ago, blended with adjustments based on offseason activity and other factors, I number-crunched and set up a simulation of the 2024 League standings. And because I’m a crazy person, I brought Excel to the brink of total collapse and ran the exercise 1,000 times to come up with a voluminous sample of outcomes, with the average win-loss record listed beside each team in the preview. The top four teams in each conference will advance to the playoffs, and with two new incoming transfers from the NAL (Jacksonville Sharks and San Antonio Gunslingers), that task becomes more difficult than ever. Who does the model predict will play postseason football?
Starting with the Western Conference:
1. Tucson Sugar Skulls (12-4, playoff percentage 90%)
Don’t think a lot of people will dispute this one, as Tucson essentially won the offseason the moment they traded for Drew Powell in November. The former MVP gets infused into a lineup that already has playoff experience from each of the past two seasons, so the winning formula is already firmly established. The Skulls will hold out hope that Powell is the final piece who can take them from fringe contender to serious threat for the title. They should be among the top favorites whenever the Futures market opens.
2. Arizona Rattlers (12-4, playoff percentage 90%)
On the other side of the fall’s blockbuster deal, the Rattlers acquired Ramone Atkins from Tucson (who has since signed with Nashville of the resurrected AFL). But it’s the other big-name quarterback they signed who will open as the Week 1 starter – reigning IFL Championship MVP Dalton Sneed. His storyline of 2024 will be whether he can retain the scorching efficiency that led him to last year’s title run with Bay Area; the signal-caller surrendered just four turnovers all of last season, including zero in the three playoff games. The competition will be fierce to remain among the West’s top two teams, but you can’t ever count out Kevin Guy’s battle-tested Rattlers.
3. Bay Area Panthers (10-6, playoff percentage 89%)
Moving along the Western quarterback carousel with a look at the defending champions, who the model predicts to be on pace for a double-digit win season despite Sneed bolting for the desert this fall. The torch in San Jose passes to Da’Quan Neal, brought over to the Bay after spending last season in Vegas. The Panthers also return several key players on both sides of the ball from their 2023 run, giving them a lot of continuity which should help them set the tone early on. And if Neal can stay on the field after some rough injury luck the past couple years, the sky is the limit for these California cats in their quest for a repeat.
4. San Diego Strike Force (8-8, playoff percentage 45%)
Outside of the top three teams in the West, the other playoff spot is up for the taking for the rest of the field. The model projects San Diego as the most likely team to round out the Western playoff picture, with Nate Davis back at the QB spot, along with an improving defense that could further elevate the team’s overall upside if that unit can tap into its potential. Even in seeing some notable players depart in free agency, like RB Eddie Vander and WR Kentrez Bell, the pieces are still in place for a potential run to a first postseason berth; the next step is achieving the level of execution needed to get there.
5. Northern Arizona Wranglers (7-9, playoff percentage 36%)
NAZ will enter 2024 with several questions to address, with a roster that currently contains several first-year players and local talents trying to make names for themselves. It’s a formula that can work if you find enough gems amongst the youngsters, and the Wranglers executed this strategy to perfection just a couple years ago. They’ll almost certainly have to kickstart their offense, which in 2023 was last in the IFL in points per game, to claim a third straight playoff appearance.
6. San Antonio Gunslingers (5-11, playoff percentage 20%)
Our first extended look at the IFL’s newest franchise, the ‘Guns were a playoff team in the 2023 NAL season, but dropped their first-round matchup to the Carolina Cobras. Notably, they amassed an 8-4 record despite a minus-37 point differential on the season. At present, the lone QB on the roster is Sam Castronova, who had built a reputation as one of the NAL’s finest signal-callers. Only time will tell what kind of supporting cast he’ll be suiting up with, and how the team will be able to adjust to a new league ruleset. Right now, San Antonio projects somewhere around 5th or 6th place on average, with an opportunity to grow the more we see them play and adjust.
7. Vegas Knight Hawks (5-11, playoff percentage 18%)
It’s a big season upcoming for Mike Davis and the third-year Knight Hawks, who are still seeking their first taste of postseason action. Either Jorge Reyna or Ja’rome Johnson will likely open as the starting QB – and they did sign Antonio Wimbush to bolster the running back spot – but the next step for Vegas will be to string together solid performances more consistently and more frequently than we have seen in their first two campaigns. Until they get to that point, it’s tough to project more than six or seven wins to them right now in what is likely to be a hyper-competitive Western Conference.
8. Duke City Gladiators (4-12, playoff percentage 12%)
The Gladiators did a respectable job of staying competitive for as long as they could last year after the Nate Davis trade, but the reality is that sub-par QB play could be a recurring storyline once again in 2024. Either Taz Wilson or Jayru Campbell will start the season under center, and even with the additions of 2021 Champions Justin Stockton and Laquvionte Gonzales, the sledding could be rough if neither QB can establish himself early on. At least they retained “The Most Interesting Man in the World” Ernesto Lacayo!
And now, for the projections in the Eastern Conference:
1. Frisco Fighters (13-3, playoff percentage 95%)
Without a shadow of a doubt, the Fighters should still be considered the class of the East despite knockouts in the semifinal round in each of their first three seasons. After all, they boast a ridiculous regular season win percentage above 80% (37-7), and with reigning league MVP T.J. Edwards re-signing last week, it’s all gas and no brakes in Frisco. No team in the East can provide a strong enough argument to rank above the Fighters, the question becomes if they can ultimately break down that playoff barrier that’s kept them away from a championship appearance to this point.
2. Massachusetts Pirates (10-6, playoff percentage 75%)
A potentially defining season awaits the Pirates in 2024, as they have found a new home in Lowell after spending their first five seasons in Worcester. Thus far, they’ve got a lone championship sandwiched in between two pairs of disappointing first-round exits. The story of 2023, though, was wretched road play. The Pirates lost their final four games last season – all on the road – while managing to stage an ill-advised impression of the 1979 Boston Bruins in the process. For 2024, they retain much of the core they’ve had so much success with, while also building and developing young talent throughout the rest of the roster. Like the Fighters, the track record speaks for itself, and it’s a tough one to bet against as Massachusetts seeks its sixth playoff berth in as many seasons of existence.
3. Jacksonville Sharks (9-7, playoff percentage 64%)
Enter yet another team that’s had a prolonged history of success throughout its entire history, dating all the way back to their first season in 2010 in the Arena Football League. That history includes August’s 2023 NAL Championship, and now they set their sights on a third different Arena/Indoor football trophy (along with a victory in ArenaBowl XXIV in 2011). The roster looks significantly different than the one that claimed greatness last August, but the Sharks have more than earned some benefit of the doubt as they embark on their inaugural IFL campaign. And with a fairly recent precedent of immediate NAL-to-IFL success (see: 2021 Pirates), it should come as no surprise if the Sharks push their IFL debut deep into the summer.
4. Green Bay Blizzard (8-8, playoff percentage 55%)
Green Bay has spent the past couple years on the outskirts of a playoff spot, and 2024 projects to be the year they finally get some bounces their way and make a concerted run at a playoff berth, which would be their first in the post-Covid era. Max Meylor will take over full-time QB duties, and linebacker James Brown returns to bolster a defense that’s trending upward. One name to keep an eye on: rookie RB E.J. Burgess. The former Franklin Pierce Raven (D2) had a standout career at Rindge and could carry some sneaky Offensive Rookie of the Year appeal.
5. Sioux Falls Storm (7-9, playoff percentage 51%)
A new era dawns in South Dakota, with Kurtiss Riggs retiring after a two-decades long run as the Storm head coach. Quarterback Lorenzo Brown has also retired, so it will be an entirely different feel for this team in 2024. They still have the talent to compete, particularly at wide receiver with the addition of Kentrez Bell, who was an all-league nomination last year with San Diego. It will be quite the test for first-year head coach Andre Fields to return the Storm to the level of success that’s come so frequently to them throughout the Riggs tenure, but the reigning Eastern Champions will certainly be a tough out for any opponent they're up against.
6. Quad City Steamwheelers (7-9, playoff percentage 38%)
The 2022 Eastern Conference Champs entered last season with sky-high expectations, and they were delivering in the early part of the season. But a brutal string of injuries and other strokes of misfortune caused Quad City to run out of steam by the end of the season, as evidenced by their whimpering first-round loss at Frisco. And without E.J. Hilliard listed on the 2024 roster, the hopes ride on new faces like Eddie Vander and Todd Athey to come in and produce right off the bat. Cory Ross is among the best coaches in the business, so it shouldn’t come as a surprise if he can round his squad into shape.
7. Tulsa Oilers (6-10, playoff percentage 12%)
Lots of hope for Tulsa’s franchise entering 2024, particularly with the two-year league trend of “worst-to-first” still running. The Oilers look to supplement last year’s core with more high-impact additions brought in via free agency, trying to become the third consecutive team to win a title the season following a dead-last finish. They’ll have to earn it the hard way, going up against the league’s most difficult schedule, but they certainly can’t be counted out if a team or two currently projected above them falters.
8. Iowa Barnstormers (5-11, playoff percentage 10%)
Every year, there seems to be at least one or two teams that just get snake-bitten en route to a lost season. The Iowa Barnstormers are the quintessential team that comes to mind when reflecting on 2023. After an early season-ending injury to D.J. Peterson, Iowa was clearly overmatched for the majority of the season (even though they had the two highest point outputs of 2023 in spike games against the Pirates and Steamwheelers). Peterson will make his long-awaited return to the lineup to start the season. The problem is, he’ll need to gel with an entirely new cast of players joining him on offense. And the defense still has some improvements to make after surrendering over 50 points per game a season ago.
Projected Playoff Bracket:
[1] Tucson over [4] San Diego
[2] Arizona over [3] Bay Area
[1] Frisco over [4] Green Bay
[2] Massachusetts over [3] Jacksonville
[1] Tucson over [2] Arizona
[1] Frisco over [2] Massachusetts
IFL Championship: [1] Tucson over [1] Frisco
I’m prepared for a lot of surprises throughout the next nineteen weeks of action, looking forward to the many twists and turns along the way!
Don’t forget to check back in next Wednesday for the launch of Season 2 of “Wager Wednesday”, which will feature a complementary video segment live on my YouTube channel, a new feature to look forward to this season. More info to come on that as we get closer to it.
