Post by spiderfan on Jan 9, 2023 13:47:00 GMT -8
Howdy Sports to Coast, Spiderfan your official NFL analyst here, coming to you with the Week 18 edition Red Hot Gridiron. With it being the final week of the regular season, we have a ton to get to, so without further ado, let us begin!
One Team's End is Another Team's Beginning
The 7 or so hours that began in the late afternoon window and ended with the conclusion of Sunday Night Football were something else. The race for the #7 seed in the NFC was kind of complicated, yet not nearly as elaborate as the AFC, as I explained last week
For the NFC it comes down to 2 games: Rams-Seahawks and Lions-Packers. If the Rams beat the Seahawks, the Seahawks are eliminated and the Lions-Packers becomes a win and in game for the Lions and Packers respectively. However, if the Seahawks beat the Rams, then the Lions are eliminated regardless of if they win against the Packers. If the Packers win against the Lions, both the Lions and Seahawks are eliminated, and the Packers clinch the #7 seed.
Thinking bigger picture after the dust settled and I really began to think about all that transpired (and set aside the joy I experienced as a Seahawks fan), I realized that both games featured squads where one was on an upswing and the other on the downswing. Let me explain:
In the case of Rams-Seahawks, the Seahawks have assembled a young core of guys who will be starters or star players for years to come (Tariq Woolen, Kenneth Walker, amongst others) and be aided by starters and potential star players from next year's draft (The Seahawks have the #5 pick in both of the 1st 2 rounds because of the Broncos). Meanwhile, the Rams have core of older players (Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Aaron Donald, amongst others) and don't have the draft picks to replenish the roster (having traded them to get Matthew Stafford and others). Because of the trajectory of both squads even though Seahawks HC Pete Carroll is the oldest head coach in the NFL at 71, he shows no signs of planning to retire. Contrast that to Rams HC Sean McVay who is only 36 and according to various media reports is seriously considering retirement.
In the case of Lions-Packers, you have a Lions team that almost made the playoffs in Year 2 of a major rebuilding project, a top 5 offense, an improving defense, and similar to the Seahawks has high draft capital that will likely make them better (The Lions have the #6 pick in the 1st round next year). Meanwhile, the Packers are a team that looked outright bad for 2/3rds of the season, lack a quality roster, and are in limbo because while Packers QB Aaron Rodgers keeps thinking about retirement, they have a replacement ready in Jordan Love who the management wants to see, yet don't have an opportunity to see because of Rodgers continuing to play. If/when Rodgers retires or leaves, the Packers will likely begin a rebuild of themselves, while the Lions will be in firm playoff contention, a flip of situation from recent years.
It all goes to show you that success can be a fleeting thing in the NFL, so enjoy it while you can.
The Patriots Sunk, So The Dolphins Could Swim (Get it cause Dolphins SWIM)
The race for the #7 seed in the AFC had less big picture abstractness. Here was the situation going into Sunday:
In the AFC it becomes a food chain situation. The Patriots are currently the #7 seed and they play the Bills. If the Patriots beat the Bills, then the Patriots clinch the #7 seed. However if the Bills beat the Patriots, the next up the chain is the Dolphins who play the Jets. If the Bills beat the Patriots and the Dolphins beat the Jets then the Dolphins clinch the #7 seed. However, if the Bills beat the Patriots AND the Jets beat the Dolphins, then next up the chain is the Steelers who play the Browns. If the Bills beat the Patriots AND the Jets beat the Dolphins AND the Steelers beat the Browns, then the Steelers clinch the #7 seed. If the Patriots, Dolphins, and Steelers all lose, then the food chain resets to the Patriots getting the #7 seed UNLESS the Jaguars lose to the Titans in which case the Jaguars would clinch the #7 seed (Titans-Jaguars is for all practical purposes a win and in game for both teams, but if the Titans lose they are immediately eliminated, while the Jaguars wouldn't be eliminated until either the Patriots, Dolphins, or Steelers win).
In the aftermath, various media reports have the Patriots re-hiring former OC Bill O'Brien to be their OC after the completely failed experiment that everyone but Bill Belichick expected to be a completely failed experiment of having Matt Patricia, a former DEFENSIVE coordinator try to call OFFENSIVE plays. As for the Dolphins, HC Mike McDaniel should be safe after reports came out that he was on the chopping block after blowing the 8-3 start to the Dolphins season. Whether Tua plays in the playoffs is still in the air as of this column's posting.
As for #1 Seed...
In the AFC, the Chiefs blew out the Raiders and in the NFC the Eagles beat the Giants backups, both of which were predictable outcomes. As I've said before the Eagles are the Super Bowl favorites in my opinion. For the AFC, as of right now I think the Super Bowl representative will either be the Chiefs or the Bengals, as I don't think the Bills will make the Super Bowl with Von Miller having torn his ACL earlier in the year.
Fired Out of the Coaching Cannon
The Panthers, Colts, and Broncos had already fired their head coaches earlier this season. The question following Week 18 was how many more would be fired. The answer was two.
After only one season at the helm, the Texans fired Lovie Smith after a campaign that was even worse than last years (4-13 to 3-13-1). What's hilarious is that all the Texans had to do was lose one more game and they would secure the #1 pick. They won on Sunday against the Colts. Even though the Texans would never admit it, I can't help but get the feeling that costing the Texans the #1 pick is what cost Lovie Smith his job, although it wouldn't surprise me if the Texans leak out that had absolutely nothing to do with it to make themselves look better. As for Lovie's replacement? My prediction (and I pretty much always get these wrong, but what the heck I'll predict anyway) is that the Texans end up hiring 49ers DC and former Houston Texans DE DeMeco Ryans.
The other firing to talk about is the Cardinals firing of Kliff Kingsbury. As regular readers know, I kept thinking that the Cardinals might keep him because of the extension they gave him last year. As it turns out Cardinals ownership was willing to pay all that money out. The catch is that according to reports the Cardinals are seriously considering DC Vance Joseph to replace Kingsbury, someone who will likely end up being cheaper than anyone from outside the organization, since Joseph will just be happy to be a NFL HC again. I think the Cardinals will end up hiring Joseph for that reason. With GM Steve Kiem leaving the organization, the Cardinals are also seriously considering promoting from within for their GM spot.
With Kingsbury out, the Cardinals should trade Kyler Murray. They won't, but they should. If Murray only had brief success and ultimately didn't get along with Kingsbury (someone who had known Murray since he was a kid and came to Arizona as a package deal with Murray), then Murray isn't going to work with anyone else in the long term. The Cardinals should get rid of him now before the rest of the NFL world figures that out.
Other Thoughts
-My other coaching predictions is that Sean Payton ends up as the HC of the Broncos, Jim Harbaugh ends up as the HC of the Colts, and Steve Wilks is retained as HC of the Panthers.
-The NFC South champion did end up with a losing record after all with the Buccaneers losing to the Falcons. Hooray for losing record playoff teams!
-Congratulations to the Jacksonville Jaguars for making the playoffs for the first time in 5 years!
-Congratulations to the Chicago Bears for getting the #1 pick!
-The Broncos were finally due to break their losing streak and they did. Good for them... I guess?
-Carson Wentz has to be the biggest buzzkill in the NFL. The Commanders were on the verge of going to the postseason, then he plays a terrible game against the Browns costing the Commanders their playoff spot, and the game right after he's benched (again), they dominate a team that is going to the playoffs.
-Get well soon Damar Hamlin!
With all of that said that is it for the regular season. As always I hope ya enjoyed and I hope to see ya again in the playoffs. Remember, football is the greatest game in the world. This is spiderfan out.
