Post by alecs on Mar 9, 2023 18:49:45 GMT -8
What's going on everyone!
Just about a week away from the Arizona vs. Quad City season opener, which means it's time for me to unveil my (likely incorrect) 2023 season projections! Before we get to the details of who will finish where, it's important to know about some of the rule changes going into effect for the season:
* The Deuce is now available on kickoff plays throughout the entire game, rather than just the last minute of each half. I can see this being a noteworthy boost to a couple teams, particularly the Duke City Gladiators. Unlike most other arenas in the league, the Rio Rancho Events Center does not have a giant overhanging scoreboard over the middle portion of the field, which should make it far easier for them to steal away a couple points when they decide to attempt deuces. Visiting kickers would also get this chance, which is a solid counterargument, but the Gladiators will have this for 8 home games this season.
* As an addendum to the revised Deuce rule, a kickoff that hits off the post/crossbar and back into the field of play is considered a live ball, eligible for either team to recover and advance. Rouge rule remains in effect if the receiving team recovers but fails to bring it out of the endzone. Overall, I like what the new rules bring to the table in terms of direct scoring potential, but I could also see a lot of dead balls and unreturnable kicks with unlimited deuce attempts, taking away a bit from the excitement of a more conventional kickoff play.
* The positive yardage rule for the final minute of the game has been scrapped. In the past, the leading team would have to gain yardage when possessing the ball in order for the clock to continue running, essentially forcing teams away from simply bottling up into a victory formation. This is the only major rule chance that I don't necessarily like, as the prior rule always kept games honest until the very end, and left open the possibility for a major defensive play to suddenly turn a game completely on its head.
Now that we're more or less up to speed on how the 2023 game will operate, let's delve into the projected standings! I ran a model of the season 1000 times, using adjusted results from last season and adding subjective changes to each team depending on offseason changes. Let's lead things off with the Western Conference first:
1. Arizona Rattlers (12-3)
We know this team is going to be atop the league's elite for as long as Drew Powell is under center. The question becomes, can they get a couple breaks to go their way in the postseason, as they take aim at their first title since 2017. In my mind, they are the preseason's odds-on favorite to go the distance. Projected Playoff Chance: 99%
2. Duke City Gladiators (9-6)
I liked what I saw from Duke City last season, despite a lopsided loss to Arizona in the 1st round of the playoffs, scrapping their way back from a slow start to get a playoff spot. Oh, and they happen to get Nate Davis back after losing him to a season-ending injury in last year's season opener. Projected Playoff Chance: 80%
3. Northern Arizona Wranglers (8-7)
The first major surprise of my prediction sees the defending Champions on the bottom half of the Western playoff picture. Losing Kaleb Barker and Ja'Quan Artis certainly won't help matters, but the Wranglers proved last year that they can find and get the most out of young talent. It'll be a fight, at least to start, but NAZ should get above .500 for a 2nd straight season. Projected Playoff Chance: 78%
4. Tucson Sugar Skulls (8-7)
The Skulls showed last year that, on their A-game, they can take down anyone in the league (for instance, a win over Arizona last season). They have an all-time great IFL coach in Dixie Wooten, and a dominant run game that will likely carry over into this year. Projected Playoff Chance: 70%
5. Vegas Knight Hawks (7-8)
The Knight Hawks will enter their sophomore season, looking to build upon the positive points from their inaugural 2022 season. Vegas made arguable the biggest splash of the offseason, adding RB Derrius Guice to their backfield rotation. If he can keep his head on straight, he'll make for an interesting watch throughout 2023. Projected Playoff Chance: 40%
6. San Diego Strike Force (5-10)
There was some speculation that SD could have folded after last year, but they are still here for 2023. The Strike Force will hope that Demry Croft can provide a stable answer at QB, while other additions like Kentrez Bell at receiver will look to make a positive impact. They're a trendy pick to steal a playoff spot, but I don't see enough right now to comfortably vault them into the conversation over the teams above them. Projected Playoff Chance: 25%
7. Bay Area Panthers (4-11)
New coach Darren Arbet will have a lofty task ahead of him, as the Panthers look to take a page out of the 2022 Wranglers story by pulling off a 1-win "worst" to Championship "first" turnaround. They at least have a capable signal-caller, acquiring Dalton Sneed, who made waves as a member of the Sioux Falls Storm last season. They'll need a lot to go right in order to viably contend. Projected Playoff Chance: 8%
The Eastern Conference looks something like this:
1. Frisco Fighters (11-4)
A second consecutive semifinal loss prevented a high-flying Frisco team from advancing to the Championship, but they're in great shape to pick up their dominant ways that they've exhibited from the franchise's inception. Lots of moving parts on the roster, but TJ Edwards remains in line to start at QB. Projected Playoff Chance: 98%
2. Iowa Barnstormers (9-6)
Iowa's another team that I'm particularly high on this season, and they have the makings to be a dark horse contender in 2023. Several of their star players are back from the 2022 squad, including QB D.J. Peterson and RB Antonio Wimbush, and they'll have that hunger factor that they're hoping propels them to a playoff victory, something that's eluded them since their 2018 championship. Projected Playoff Chance: 83%
3. Massachusetts Pirates (9-6)
I honestly think that 2nd through 4th in the East is a complete crapshoot, where you could arrange those teams in any order and have a compelling case for it. For my hometown heroes, I'll split the difference with a 3rd-place finish in the conference. The Pirates will hope that the return of high-end veterans like Alejandro Bennifield and Thomas Owens, paired with their other rookie signings, can keep them on their winning ways, as they try for a 2nd title in 3 seasons. Projected Playoff Chance: 80%
4. Quad City Steamwheelers (9-6)
The reigning Eastern Conference champs will understandably be a popular pick to finish the 2023 season strong. They have lots of players returning from that 2022 team that came just two points short of its first championship since its early AF2 days. You could honestly place them at 2nd here and it would be a realistic prediction. Projected Playoff Chance: 75%
5. Sioux Falls Storm (7-8)
Like we saw last year, we may have that scenario where one legitimate contender doesn't make it through to the postseason. The Storm, despite getting QB Lorenzo Brown back in the fold, pose too many questions on the defensive side of the ball for me to ignore. If they can improve there, it elevates their season outlook to where they can make some noise. Projected Playoff Chance: 45%
6. Tulsa Oilers (5-10)
The new kids on the block enter their inaugural season as perhaps the biggest unknown factor of the season. They'll rely mostly on their local, young talent to guide them through the season. If enough pieces fall into place, they could flirt with a playoff spot. But that is a lot of ifs, and expansion teams typically have a learning year in their first go around. Projected Playoff Chance: 14%
7. Green Bay Blizzard (3-12)
It projects to be a long season for Green Bay, as the 2022 team stuck around the playoff hunt for a while, largely due to a top-3 defense carrying an inconsistent offense. With losing impact players like Mamadou Mbye, it's going to be tough for that unit to replicate that level of performance. And if the offense can't find steam, 3 wins might be too optimistic. Projected Playoff Chance: 5%
IFL PLAYOFFS
#1 Arizona over #4 Tucson
#2 Duke City over #3 Northern Arizona
#1 Frisco over #4 Quad City
#3 Massachusetts over #2 Iowa
#1 Arizona over #2 Duke City
#3 Massachusetts over #1 Frisco
2023 IFL NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP
#3 Massachusetts over #1 Arizona
Just about a week away from the Arizona vs. Quad City season opener, which means it's time for me to unveil my (likely incorrect) 2023 season projections! Before we get to the details of who will finish where, it's important to know about some of the rule changes going into effect for the season:
* The Deuce is now available on kickoff plays throughout the entire game, rather than just the last minute of each half. I can see this being a noteworthy boost to a couple teams, particularly the Duke City Gladiators. Unlike most other arenas in the league, the Rio Rancho Events Center does not have a giant overhanging scoreboard over the middle portion of the field, which should make it far easier for them to steal away a couple points when they decide to attempt deuces. Visiting kickers would also get this chance, which is a solid counterargument, but the Gladiators will have this for 8 home games this season.
* As an addendum to the revised Deuce rule, a kickoff that hits off the post/crossbar and back into the field of play is considered a live ball, eligible for either team to recover and advance. Rouge rule remains in effect if the receiving team recovers but fails to bring it out of the endzone. Overall, I like what the new rules bring to the table in terms of direct scoring potential, but I could also see a lot of dead balls and unreturnable kicks with unlimited deuce attempts, taking away a bit from the excitement of a more conventional kickoff play.
* The positive yardage rule for the final minute of the game has been scrapped. In the past, the leading team would have to gain yardage when possessing the ball in order for the clock to continue running, essentially forcing teams away from simply bottling up into a victory formation. This is the only major rule chance that I don't necessarily like, as the prior rule always kept games honest until the very end, and left open the possibility for a major defensive play to suddenly turn a game completely on its head.
Now that we're more or less up to speed on how the 2023 game will operate, let's delve into the projected standings! I ran a model of the season 1000 times, using adjusted results from last season and adding subjective changes to each team depending on offseason changes. Let's lead things off with the Western Conference first:
1. Arizona Rattlers (12-3)
We know this team is going to be atop the league's elite for as long as Drew Powell is under center. The question becomes, can they get a couple breaks to go their way in the postseason, as they take aim at their first title since 2017. In my mind, they are the preseason's odds-on favorite to go the distance. Projected Playoff Chance: 99%
2. Duke City Gladiators (9-6)
I liked what I saw from Duke City last season, despite a lopsided loss to Arizona in the 1st round of the playoffs, scrapping their way back from a slow start to get a playoff spot. Oh, and they happen to get Nate Davis back after losing him to a season-ending injury in last year's season opener. Projected Playoff Chance: 80%
3. Northern Arizona Wranglers (8-7)
The first major surprise of my prediction sees the defending Champions on the bottom half of the Western playoff picture. Losing Kaleb Barker and Ja'Quan Artis certainly won't help matters, but the Wranglers proved last year that they can find and get the most out of young talent. It'll be a fight, at least to start, but NAZ should get above .500 for a 2nd straight season. Projected Playoff Chance: 78%
4. Tucson Sugar Skulls (8-7)
The Skulls showed last year that, on their A-game, they can take down anyone in the league (for instance, a win over Arizona last season). They have an all-time great IFL coach in Dixie Wooten, and a dominant run game that will likely carry over into this year. Projected Playoff Chance: 70%
5. Vegas Knight Hawks (7-8)
The Knight Hawks will enter their sophomore season, looking to build upon the positive points from their inaugural 2022 season. Vegas made arguable the biggest splash of the offseason, adding RB Derrius Guice to their backfield rotation. If he can keep his head on straight, he'll make for an interesting watch throughout 2023. Projected Playoff Chance: 40%
6. San Diego Strike Force (5-10)
There was some speculation that SD could have folded after last year, but they are still here for 2023. The Strike Force will hope that Demry Croft can provide a stable answer at QB, while other additions like Kentrez Bell at receiver will look to make a positive impact. They're a trendy pick to steal a playoff spot, but I don't see enough right now to comfortably vault them into the conversation over the teams above them. Projected Playoff Chance: 25%
7. Bay Area Panthers (4-11)
New coach Darren Arbet will have a lofty task ahead of him, as the Panthers look to take a page out of the 2022 Wranglers story by pulling off a 1-win "worst" to Championship "first" turnaround. They at least have a capable signal-caller, acquiring Dalton Sneed, who made waves as a member of the Sioux Falls Storm last season. They'll need a lot to go right in order to viably contend. Projected Playoff Chance: 8%
The Eastern Conference looks something like this:
1. Frisco Fighters (11-4)
A second consecutive semifinal loss prevented a high-flying Frisco team from advancing to the Championship, but they're in great shape to pick up their dominant ways that they've exhibited from the franchise's inception. Lots of moving parts on the roster, but TJ Edwards remains in line to start at QB. Projected Playoff Chance: 98%
2. Iowa Barnstormers (9-6)
Iowa's another team that I'm particularly high on this season, and they have the makings to be a dark horse contender in 2023. Several of their star players are back from the 2022 squad, including QB D.J. Peterson and RB Antonio Wimbush, and they'll have that hunger factor that they're hoping propels them to a playoff victory, something that's eluded them since their 2018 championship. Projected Playoff Chance: 83%
3. Massachusetts Pirates (9-6)
I honestly think that 2nd through 4th in the East is a complete crapshoot, where you could arrange those teams in any order and have a compelling case for it. For my hometown heroes, I'll split the difference with a 3rd-place finish in the conference. The Pirates will hope that the return of high-end veterans like Alejandro Bennifield and Thomas Owens, paired with their other rookie signings, can keep them on their winning ways, as they try for a 2nd title in 3 seasons. Projected Playoff Chance: 80%
4. Quad City Steamwheelers (9-6)
The reigning Eastern Conference champs will understandably be a popular pick to finish the 2023 season strong. They have lots of players returning from that 2022 team that came just two points short of its first championship since its early AF2 days. You could honestly place them at 2nd here and it would be a realistic prediction. Projected Playoff Chance: 75%
5. Sioux Falls Storm (7-8)
Like we saw last year, we may have that scenario where one legitimate contender doesn't make it through to the postseason. The Storm, despite getting QB Lorenzo Brown back in the fold, pose too many questions on the defensive side of the ball for me to ignore. If they can improve there, it elevates their season outlook to where they can make some noise. Projected Playoff Chance: 45%
6. Tulsa Oilers (5-10)
The new kids on the block enter their inaugural season as perhaps the biggest unknown factor of the season. They'll rely mostly on their local, young talent to guide them through the season. If enough pieces fall into place, they could flirt with a playoff spot. But that is a lot of ifs, and expansion teams typically have a learning year in their first go around. Projected Playoff Chance: 14%
7. Green Bay Blizzard (3-12)
It projects to be a long season for Green Bay, as the 2022 team stuck around the playoff hunt for a while, largely due to a top-3 defense carrying an inconsistent offense. With losing impact players like Mamadou Mbye, it's going to be tough for that unit to replicate that level of performance. And if the offense can't find steam, 3 wins might be too optimistic. Projected Playoff Chance: 5%
IFL PLAYOFFS
#1 Arizona over #4 Tucson
#2 Duke City over #3 Northern Arizona
#1 Frisco over #4 Quad City
#3 Massachusetts over #2 Iowa
#1 Arizona over #2 Duke City
#3 Massachusetts over #1 Frisco
2023 IFL NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP
#3 Massachusetts over #1 Arizona