Post by alecs on Apr 5, 2023 8:53:53 GMT -8
Happy Wednesday, IFL Fans!
Welcome to Volume II of my "Wager Wednesday" bit, in which I examine the current landscape of the upcoming week's games, based on lines and odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. As an advocate of accountability, I will recap my results - whether genius or moronic - from the prior week as well. With that, let's see how my picks from last week turned out:
So a 3-out-of-6 week for me, not too shabby after losing the first three picks. Thanks to the Tucson moneyline win, a set of $10 bets on each would have resulted in a net profit (albeit of just $3.68). That's enough to buy me a McChicken and fountain drink, I guess...
Will I be able to improve upon that efficiency in this week's 4-game slate? Read on to find out!
Saturday 4/8: TUL @ DUKE (-14.5) | O/U 76.5
The pick: DUKE -14.5
Last week, we saw the first of the Tulsa Oilers, and while their defense held up respectably well against Frisco to the tune of 35 points, they only put up 13 points themselves. I expect Tulsa to put up more than that against a more vulnerable Duke City defense, but the Gladiators should run away with this game, especially if the Oilers remain unable to find a stride offensively.
Saturday 4/8: TUC @ ARI (-4.5) | O/U 95.5 | Moneyline: TUC +155, ARI -180 *Changed from -3.5 prior to kickoff
The pick: ARI -4.5
This might be the easiest pick of the week in my opinion. The Rattlers will hold their home opener against a team working on just five days of rest. To be honest, I would play this as high as -9.5, which makes this a tremendous value pick for the home team.
Saturday 4/8: SD @ VGS (-12.5) | O/U 87.5
The pick: OVER 87.5
I'm sure this pick will raise some eyebrows for its defiantly contrarian nature, but I'm willing to give San Diego a mulligan for Monday's farce, as the eyes of the entire city were clearly on SD State's bid for a National Championship. With that firmly in the past, I think SD gets closer to their upside from the QC game where they scored 47. Vegas will look to continue its pace offensively; I like their ability to put as many as 60 in front of their faithful fans at The Dollar Loan Center.
Sunday 4/9: IOWA @ SXF (-8.5) | O/U 72.5 | Moneyline: IOWA +300, SXF -365
The pick: IOWA +8.5
Iowa was shell-shocked in GB, losing the game as well as starter DJ Peterson to injury. Unless the Barnstormers bring in someone new this week, it will be the Zach Reader show going forward. With Peterson potentially facing a long-term absence, Iowa's season is suddenly in dire straits, which should make them the more desperate team in this game. Whether that leads to a road victory remains to be seen, but as long as it stays a one-score game I like my chances.
Of course, if you'd like to chime in your opinions/predictions, comment below!
**Updated 4/8/23 at 1:40PM ET**
Welcome to Volume II of my "Wager Wednesday" bit, in which I examine the current landscape of the upcoming week's games, based on lines and odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. As an advocate of accountability, I will recap my results - whether genius or moronic - from the prior week as well. With that, let's see how my picks from last week turned out:
- IOWA @ GB - OVER 92.5 (GB won 44-25, for a total of 69 - in this case, not so nice)
- SXF @ QC - QC -7.5 (The Storm held QC to a 2-point win, 36-34)
- FRI @ DUKE - DUKE +350 (The Glads were close on this one, but ended up losing 60-55)
- VGS @ NAZ - NAZ +13.5 (The Wranglers used a late TD to seal the 48-42 victory, easily covering)
- BAY @ MASS - MASS +5.5 (The Pirates overcame a halftime deficit to beat the Panthers 59-52)
- TUC @ SD - TUC +155 (Tucson made life miserable for the Strike Force, surrendering just 16 points in an easy 35-16 win)
So a 3-out-of-6 week for me, not too shabby after losing the first three picks. Thanks to the Tucson moneyline win, a set of $10 bets on each would have resulted in a net profit (albeit of just $3.68). That's enough to buy me a McChicken and fountain drink, I guess...
Will I be able to improve upon that efficiency in this week's 4-game slate? Read on to find out!
Saturday 4/8: TUL @ DUKE (-14.5) | O/U 76.5
The pick: DUKE -14.5
Last week, we saw the first of the Tulsa Oilers, and while their defense held up respectably well against Frisco to the tune of 35 points, they only put up 13 points themselves. I expect Tulsa to put up more than that against a more vulnerable Duke City defense, but the Gladiators should run away with this game, especially if the Oilers remain unable to find a stride offensively.
Saturday 4/8: TUC @ ARI (-4.5) | O/U 95.5 | Moneyline: TUC +155, ARI -180 *Changed from -3.5 prior to kickoff
The pick: ARI -4.5
This might be the easiest pick of the week in my opinion. The Rattlers will hold their home opener against a team working on just five days of rest. To be honest, I would play this as high as -9.5, which makes this a tremendous value pick for the home team.
Saturday 4/8: SD @ VGS (-12.5) | O/U 87.5
The pick: OVER 87.5
I'm sure this pick will raise some eyebrows for its defiantly contrarian nature, but I'm willing to give San Diego a mulligan for Monday's farce, as the eyes of the entire city were clearly on SD State's bid for a National Championship. With that firmly in the past, I think SD gets closer to their upside from the QC game where they scored 47. Vegas will look to continue its pace offensively; I like their ability to put as many as 60 in front of their faithful fans at The Dollar Loan Center.
Sunday 4/9: IOWA @ SXF (-8.5) | O/U 72.5 | Moneyline: IOWA +300, SXF -365
The pick: IOWA +8.5
Iowa was shell-shocked in GB, losing the game as well as starter DJ Peterson to injury. Unless the Barnstormers bring in someone new this week, it will be the Zach Reader show going forward. With Peterson potentially facing a long-term absence, Iowa's season is suddenly in dire straits, which should make them the more desperate team in this game. Whether that leads to a road victory remains to be seen, but as long as it stays a one-score game I like my chances.
Of course, if you'd like to chime in your opinions/predictions, comment below!
**Updated 4/8/23 at 1:40PM ET**