Post by alecs on Apr 12, 2023 8:47:37 GMT -8
Happy Wednesday, IFL Fans!
Welcome to Volume III of my "Wager Wednesday" bit, in which I examine the current landscape of the upcoming week's games, based on lines and odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. As an advocate of accountability, I will recap my results - whether genius or moronic - from the prior week as well. With that, let's see how my picks from last week turned out:
• TUL @ DUKE - DUKE -14.5 (Tulsa made this pick interesting for a while, but the Gladiators came up with plays late to cover the spread, winning 57-36)
• TUC @ ARI – ARI -4.5 (Drew Powell winding up on Short-Term IR kind of hurt me here, but I still would have stuck with this pick if I had to do it again with that knowledge. Tucson won the game thanks to a strong 2nd half, 54-48)
• SD @ VGS – OVER 87.5 (A slow-starting first half really doomed this bet from the beginning, but Stevie Artigue’s pivotal missed PAT late robbed us of the possibility of overtime saving me here. San Diego won, 37-36, for a total of 73 points.)
• IOWA @ SXF – IOWA +8.5 (I was expecting a much stronger effort from Iowa, who never really got it going offensively. Lacking the firepower and willpower to succeed, they weren’t even close to covering, with Sioux Falls easily winning, 54-24)
Not a good week, with only 1-out-of-4 hits. Missing QB’s played a huge part (Powell for Arizona, Neal for Vegas, Peterson for Iowa), but I’ve got to stand by my choices and chalk up this week as a loss. A set of $10 bets on each of these would have only brought back the winning $19.09 from the Duke City game, yielding a net loss of $20.91. Overall this season, I am 4-of-10, with a total result of roughly $17 of net loss.
Nonetheless, it’s back to the drawing board, as we prepare for a 6-game slate in Week 5. Iowa and Vegas have the week off, but the other 12 teams in the league will all be in action. Can I bring in a net gain to redeem myself from last week? Read on to find out!
Saturday 4/15: MASS @ FRI (-5.5) | O/U 110.5 | Moneyline: MASS +180, FRI -210
The pick: MASS +180 moneyline {Spread changed from -6.5, MASS +205, FRI -245}
Look, picking against Frisco may wind up being a fool’s errand, as it typically does. After all, the Fighters have an all-time record of 29-7 (including postseason) as a franchise. The way I’m seeing this, though, the Pirates have somewhat quietly become that classic “thorn on the side” of Frisco, accounting for three of those seven losses, most of any IFL team. This pick may come down to which Pirates defense shows up throughout the game, as their points surrendered by half have varied wildly thus far (7, 34, 38, 14). The only safe bet on this game is that it promises to be a spectacular showcase!
Update 4/14: Oddsmakers have shifted betting odds, as bets have apparently heavily favored the Pirates, despite Alejandro Bennifield being placed on Short-Term IR.
Saturday 4/15: QC (-17.5) @ TUL | O/U 91.5 | No Moneyline Bets available as of 4/14 update
The pick: TUL +17.5 spread
Just about a month into the season, Tulsa will finally get the chance to play in front of their home fans at the BOK Center. At the start of this week, I anticipated Tulsa’s handicap here would be huge, and it’s a worthwhile gamble to take as it stands now. Quad City is 0-3 ATS (against the spread) so far this year, with every game determined by 7 points or less, and they’ve generally struggled on the road since last season (their playoff run notwithstanding). I’m confident that Tulsa will continue coming up with positive plays they can build on going forward. Take the home team and the bundle of points!
Saturday 4/15: DUKE (-2.5) @ ARI | O/U 104.5 | Moneyline: DUKE -135, ARI +115
The pick: ARI +115 moneyline
Drew Powell, as many know, is on the injured list, which (as I learned the hard way last week) makes this pick more risky than usual. However, I have a really hard time envisioning a situation where a Kevin Guy-led squad loses three in a row, especially against a hated rival and at home. Jorge Reyna was far from perfect in relief, but I saw enough good out of him last week (6 TDs, only one turnover) to go back to the well here. My only worry here is Arizona’s unusually susceptible defense, which has given up 53, 47, and 54 points in their three games thus far this season. Especially where Duke City is as capable as any team of lighting the scoreboard up with 50+ whenever they want.
Sunday 4/16: GB @ SXF (-7.5) | O/U 85.5 | No Moneyline Bets available as of posting
The pick: UNDER 85.5
With apologies to Storm fans, I feel like I haven’t talked enough yet this season about Sioux Falls. Well, now’s my time to make up for it, as they’ve impressed me to begin the season, particularly defensively (36 points allowed at Quad City, 24 points allowed vs. Iowa). Anchored by former Blizzard LB James Brown (#RevengeGame narrative), the Storm defense should be able to keep up their stout ways, as Green Bay doesn’t exactly pose an intimidating challenge on offense. Both teams will want to dictate the terms with a more calculated pace-of-play, a great ingredient to an Under recipe.
Sunday 4/16: TUC @ BAY (-3.5) | O/U 99.5 | Moneyline: TUC +145, BAY -170
The pick: TUC +145 moneyline
If you’re a fan of the running game in indoor football, then boy do I have the game for you! Between Ramone Atkins and Mike Jones for Tucson, and Dalton Sneed and Justin Rankin for Bay Area, there should be plenty of opportunities for the ground-and-pound enthusiasts to enjoy. The game may come down to the classic adage “Whichever defense comes up with the most stops will win”, which both teams have demonstrated the ability to accomplish this season. I’ll put my dollars and my faith in Tucson as a value moneyline option, who actually started this week at +170 ML.
Sunday 4/16: SD @ NAZ (-6.5) | O/U 81.5 | Moneyline: SD +220, NAZ -260
The pick: OVER 81.5
San Diego has been the toughest team in the league to get a clear read on this season, with one dud sandwiched in between two respectable outings so far. One pivotal aspect of this wager is that the Findlay Toyota Center is very deuce-friendly (no overhanging scoreboard), which could make a noticeable difference than if the game was played elsewhere. Additionally, even with how slow the last Strike Force game started (only 23 first-half points), that game managed to get to 73 by the end. Both teams hitting 40+ points should be attainable here.
Feel free to sound your thoughts and predictions below!
*Updated 4/14/2023 at 9:35PM ET*
Welcome to Volume III of my "Wager Wednesday" bit, in which I examine the current landscape of the upcoming week's games, based on lines and odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. As an advocate of accountability, I will recap my results - whether genius or moronic - from the prior week as well. With that, let's see how my picks from last week turned out:
• TUL @ DUKE - DUKE -14.5 (Tulsa made this pick interesting for a while, but the Gladiators came up with plays late to cover the spread, winning 57-36)
• TUC @ ARI – ARI -4.5 (Drew Powell winding up on Short-Term IR kind of hurt me here, but I still would have stuck with this pick if I had to do it again with that knowledge. Tucson won the game thanks to a strong 2nd half, 54-48)
• SD @ VGS – OVER 87.5 (A slow-starting first half really doomed this bet from the beginning, but Stevie Artigue’s pivotal missed PAT late robbed us of the possibility of overtime saving me here. San Diego won, 37-36, for a total of 73 points.)
• IOWA @ SXF – IOWA +8.5 (I was expecting a much stronger effort from Iowa, who never really got it going offensively. Lacking the firepower and willpower to succeed, they weren’t even close to covering, with Sioux Falls easily winning, 54-24)
Not a good week, with only 1-out-of-4 hits. Missing QB’s played a huge part (Powell for Arizona, Neal for Vegas, Peterson for Iowa), but I’ve got to stand by my choices and chalk up this week as a loss. A set of $10 bets on each of these would have only brought back the winning $19.09 from the Duke City game, yielding a net loss of $20.91. Overall this season, I am 4-of-10, with a total result of roughly $17 of net loss.
Nonetheless, it’s back to the drawing board, as we prepare for a 6-game slate in Week 5. Iowa and Vegas have the week off, but the other 12 teams in the league will all be in action. Can I bring in a net gain to redeem myself from last week? Read on to find out!
Saturday 4/15: MASS @ FRI (-5.5) | O/U 110.5 | Moneyline: MASS +180, FRI -210
The pick: MASS +180 moneyline {Spread changed from -6.5, MASS +205, FRI -245}
Look, picking against Frisco may wind up being a fool’s errand, as it typically does. After all, the Fighters have an all-time record of 29-7 (including postseason) as a franchise. The way I’m seeing this, though, the Pirates have somewhat quietly become that classic “thorn on the side” of Frisco, accounting for three of those seven losses, most of any IFL team. This pick may come down to which Pirates defense shows up throughout the game, as their points surrendered by half have varied wildly thus far (7, 34, 38, 14). The only safe bet on this game is that it promises to be a spectacular showcase!
Update 4/14: Oddsmakers have shifted betting odds, as bets have apparently heavily favored the Pirates, despite Alejandro Bennifield being placed on Short-Term IR.
Saturday 4/15: QC (-17.5) @ TUL | O/U 91.5 | No Moneyline Bets available as of 4/14 update
The pick: TUL +17.5 spread
Just about a month into the season, Tulsa will finally get the chance to play in front of their home fans at the BOK Center. At the start of this week, I anticipated Tulsa’s handicap here would be huge, and it’s a worthwhile gamble to take as it stands now. Quad City is 0-3 ATS (against the spread) so far this year, with every game determined by 7 points or less, and they’ve generally struggled on the road since last season (their playoff run notwithstanding). I’m confident that Tulsa will continue coming up with positive plays they can build on going forward. Take the home team and the bundle of points!
Saturday 4/15: DUKE (-2.5) @ ARI | O/U 104.5 | Moneyline: DUKE -135, ARI +115
The pick: ARI +115 moneyline
Drew Powell, as many know, is on the injured list, which (as I learned the hard way last week) makes this pick more risky than usual. However, I have a really hard time envisioning a situation where a Kevin Guy-led squad loses three in a row, especially against a hated rival and at home. Jorge Reyna was far from perfect in relief, but I saw enough good out of him last week (6 TDs, only one turnover) to go back to the well here. My only worry here is Arizona’s unusually susceptible defense, which has given up 53, 47, and 54 points in their three games thus far this season. Especially where Duke City is as capable as any team of lighting the scoreboard up with 50+ whenever they want.
Sunday 4/16: GB @ SXF (-7.5) | O/U 85.5 | No Moneyline Bets available as of posting
The pick: UNDER 85.5
With apologies to Storm fans, I feel like I haven’t talked enough yet this season about Sioux Falls. Well, now’s my time to make up for it, as they’ve impressed me to begin the season, particularly defensively (36 points allowed at Quad City, 24 points allowed vs. Iowa). Anchored by former Blizzard LB James Brown (#RevengeGame narrative), the Storm defense should be able to keep up their stout ways, as Green Bay doesn’t exactly pose an intimidating challenge on offense. Both teams will want to dictate the terms with a more calculated pace-of-play, a great ingredient to an Under recipe.
Sunday 4/16: TUC @ BAY (-3.5) | O/U 99.5 | Moneyline: TUC +145, BAY -170
The pick: TUC +145 moneyline
If you’re a fan of the running game in indoor football, then boy do I have the game for you! Between Ramone Atkins and Mike Jones for Tucson, and Dalton Sneed and Justin Rankin for Bay Area, there should be plenty of opportunities for the ground-and-pound enthusiasts to enjoy. The game may come down to the classic adage “Whichever defense comes up with the most stops will win”, which both teams have demonstrated the ability to accomplish this season. I’ll put my dollars and my faith in Tucson as a value moneyline option, who actually started this week at +170 ML.
Sunday 4/16: SD @ NAZ (-6.5) | O/U 81.5 | Moneyline: SD +220, NAZ -260
The pick: OVER 81.5
San Diego has been the toughest team in the league to get a clear read on this season, with one dud sandwiched in between two respectable outings so far. One pivotal aspect of this wager is that the Findlay Toyota Center is very deuce-friendly (no overhanging scoreboard), which could make a noticeable difference than if the game was played elsewhere. Additionally, even with how slow the last Strike Force game started (only 23 first-half points), that game managed to get to 73 by the end. Both teams hitting 40+ points should be attainable here.
Feel free to sound your thoughts and predictions below!
*Updated 4/14/2023 at 9:35PM ET*