Post by alecs on Apr 19, 2023 9:47:24 GMT -8
Happy Wednesday, IFL Fans!
Welcome to Volume IV of my "Wager Wednesday" bit, in which I examine the current landscape of the upcoming week's games, based on lines and odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. As an advocate of accountability, I will recap my results - whether genius or moronic - from the prior week as well. With that, let's see how my picks from last week turned out:
• MASS @ FRI – MASS +220 (I had a feeling this game would come down to the Pirates defense, and that’s precisely what happened. Unfortunately for me, the Pirates allowed TD’s on 8-of-9 Frisco possessions, with the lone stop coming late in the 4th quarter. Frisco would dominate with a 56-39 win, establishing themselves as the team to beat the rest of the way.)
• QC @ TUL – TUL +17.5 (It was Quad City providing the fireworks display to open up the BOK Center, hanging 68 points on an Oilers team that would have needed 51 or more for a chance at the backdoor cover. Final score was 68-42, good for a 26-point win for QC.)
• DUKE @ ARI – ARI +115 (Arizona’s defense showed out strong after a dicey start to the season, forcing multiple turnovers on Nate Davis and the Gladiators en route to a 48-37 win.) $10.00 paid $21.50
• GB @ SXF – UNDER 85.5 (On a line that I would have played at 81.5, the outcome of this one came down to Green Bay’s final score of the game, a TD pass with 10 seconds left, which put the game at 88 points scored and lost the bet. I was hoping for the winning score to be a field goal, as a 44-41 final would have equaled 85 points, which would have won it for me by the hook. Green bay would hang on, 47-41.)
• TUC @ BAY – TUC +170 (The Sugar Skulls were able to overcome an early 16-0 hole on the road, playing some tenacious defense from that point onward. After a sluggish start on offense in the 1st half, they made just enough plays to defeat the Panthers by a score of 34-30.) $10.00 paid $27.00
• SD @ NAZ – OVER 81.5 (All I have to say about this one: Dear San Diego, what in the hot crispy Kentucky Fried [REDACTED] was that??? The 9 points scored is the lowest by a team in a single game since Week 1 last year. When one team proves to be utterly incompetent, the Under will easily hit every time. 48-9 was the score, for 57 points.)
For a second straight week, I accumulated more misses than hits, as 4 losses outweigh my 2 wins. Thankfully, the two bets that I did get correct were moneyline bets with better than even money payouts. A set of $10 bets on each of these would have returned $48.50, yielding a net loss of $11.50. Overall this season, I am 6-of-16, with a total result of roughly $28.73 of net loss.
YTD Breakdown of wagers by type:
Over/Under: 0-for-4
Spreads: 3-for-7
Moneyline: 3-for-5
This is the week when the IFL season officially goes in full swing; all 14 teams will take the field over the course of this coming weekend. That presents a great opportunity for me to potentially climb back into net gain territory on the season; will I be able to capitalize? Read on to find out!
*Odds and lines shown are at time of posting. They will be updated prior to kickoff if they change; however, any net gain/loss calculations will use the original values.
Friday 4/21: SXF @ GB (-2.5) | O/U 88.5 | Moneyline: SXF +115, GB -135
The pick: UNDER 88.5
I’m returning to the well with the Under on this matchup, the rare immediate home-and-home scenario after these teams played an instant classic on Sunday night. Operating on just four full days of rest, I wouldn’t expect the offenses to stay as efficient as they were in Sunday’s game, especially where most of the touchdowns scored were big chunk plays of 15 yards or more. These teams know each other well and should be able to adjust accordingly to prevent those from happening as often. For context, last week’s O/U was at 85.5, so to see this one up by a full 3 points is reason enough to try this pick again.
Friday 4/21: DUKE (-1) @ VGS | O/U 85.5 | DUKE -115, VGS -105
The pick: DUKE -1.5 spread
Vegas will be the fresher team off a bye week, but are quickly staring at a potential crossroads of their season. Aside from a season-opening win against a battered Iowa team, they haven’t done much to move the needle for me, especially with a brutal home loss to San Diego under their belt. Duke City, meanwhile, has managed a respectable 2-2 start despite a tough opening schedule that has featured Northern Arizona (eight point win), Frisco (five point loss), and Arizona (11 point loss). Right now, the Gladiators look to be the better team on paper, regardless of what DaQuan Neal’s status winds up being for the Knight Hawks. Look for Duke City to respond in a big way after last week’s loss, despite trading Nate Davis to San Diego earlier this week.
Saturday 4/22: ARI @ FRI (-6.5) | O/U 102.5 | Moneyline: ARI +200, FRI -240
The pick: FRI -6.5 spread
I don’t think there’s any question that the Fighters are the undisputed class of the IFL right now, with last week’s convincing win over Massachusetts the latest token to that argument. Frisco has won every game by at least 5 points – with that 5-point win coming on the road at Duke City. Drew Powell may or may not be back for this one, but not even the potential return of the 2-time defending IFL MVP can sway me from this selection. That’s just how dominant Frisco is playing at the moment, so I’m confident locking them in before a potential jump to -7.5.
Saturday 4/22: TUL @ IOWA (Pick ‘Em) | O/U 80.5 | Moneyline: TUL -110, IOWA -110
The pick: OVER 80.5
Perhaps against our best wishes, someone is going to win this battle between the two lowest-ranked teams in the IFL. Of course, the range of possible outcomes varies wildly whenever two bad teams collide, which makes this game the biggest betting risk regardless of which way you go. Iowa signed QB Jonathan Bane during their bye week, who played in the NAL last season for the Carolina Cobras. He’ll have a shot to start after Zach Reader failed to convincingly seize the opportunity in Iowa’s loss at Sioux Falls two weeks ago. Both teams surrender over 50 points per game, providing both offenses a great opportunity to put up some points. Notably, this is the first game of the season – at least that I’ve seen – that is a true Pick ‘Em, as both teams are -110 on the moneyline as of posting.
Saturday 4/22: MASS @ QC (-1) | O/U 105.5 | Moneyline: MASS -105, QC -115
The pick: QC -1 spread
I’ve seen enough from the Pirates’ defense to confidently say that the 2023 version lacks the punch that 2021 had, or even 2022 for that matter. Which is bad news for the Bay State Buccos, considering their next opponent is led by QB E.J. Hilliard, who’s playing at a First-Team All-IFL level right now. The Pirates have never been known as a shootout type of team, which might have to be their formula to potentially win this game, and perhaps for the remainder of 2023 moving forward, unless a star emerges quickly on the defensive side of the ball. Give me a second straight Steamwheeler cover, though this is as close to a Pick ‘Em as you’ll get.
Saturday 4/22: SD @ TUC (-14.5) | O/U 75.5 | No Moneyline bets available as of posting
The pick: TUC -14.5 spread
The final home opener of the season will finally go down in Tucson this weekend, as the Sugar Skulls welcome a San Diego team coming off an embarrassing 48-9 letdown at Northern Arizona. The Strike Force offense has looked completely lost for most of this season, with neither Demry Croft nor Aaron Aiken providing anything close to startable QB play. Even with San Diego's trade for Nate Davis from Duke City this week, this should comfortably be a win for Tucson, as long as they set the tone right away, similar to what the Wranglers were able to do last week. If San Diego somehow plays to their “average” of 27 points per game, Tucson would need at least 42 for the cover. In front of their home fans, that should be more than doable. Notably, these two teams met earlier in the season, when the Skulls won 35-16 in San Diego. Take the favorite and the home points.
Sunday 4/23: NAZ (-2.5) @ BAY, | O/U 90.5 | Moneyline: NAZ -135, BAY +115
The pick: BAY +115 Moneyline
Oddsmakers have suddenly become bearish on Bay Area, after the Panthers have dropped consecutive games as favorites against Massachusetts and Tucson. Now is the opportune time to strike on that market movement, as the Wranglers have yet to be tested on the road. And it’s not as if Bay Area has played poorly, as those losses came by 7 and 4 points against two Top-5 teams in the league. I’d expect another one-score game, and for the Panthers to find the needed gear to close the game out late.
Recommended 3-leg parlay:
“Lock” pick: Frisco moneyline (-240)
“Mid-Range” pick: Massachusetts at Quad City – Under 105.5 (-110)
“Value-Boosting” pick: Bay Area moneyline (+115)
Parlay odds: +481 ($10 wins ~$48.14)
Will I (finally) succeed on an Over/Under pick this week? Do you suspect any surprising results or predictions of upset specials? Make your voice heard with a comment below!
**Updated on 4/21/2023, at 9:00 PM ET**
Welcome to Volume IV of my "Wager Wednesday" bit, in which I examine the current landscape of the upcoming week's games, based on lines and odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. As an advocate of accountability, I will recap my results - whether genius or moronic - from the prior week as well. With that, let's see how my picks from last week turned out:
• MASS @ FRI – MASS +220 (I had a feeling this game would come down to the Pirates defense, and that’s precisely what happened. Unfortunately for me, the Pirates allowed TD’s on 8-of-9 Frisco possessions, with the lone stop coming late in the 4th quarter. Frisco would dominate with a 56-39 win, establishing themselves as the team to beat the rest of the way.)
• QC @ TUL – TUL +17.5 (It was Quad City providing the fireworks display to open up the BOK Center, hanging 68 points on an Oilers team that would have needed 51 or more for a chance at the backdoor cover. Final score was 68-42, good for a 26-point win for QC.)
• DUKE @ ARI – ARI +115 (Arizona’s defense showed out strong after a dicey start to the season, forcing multiple turnovers on Nate Davis and the Gladiators en route to a 48-37 win.) $10.00 paid $21.50
• GB @ SXF – UNDER 85.5 (On a line that I would have played at 81.5, the outcome of this one came down to Green Bay’s final score of the game, a TD pass with 10 seconds left, which put the game at 88 points scored and lost the bet. I was hoping for the winning score to be a field goal, as a 44-41 final would have equaled 85 points, which would have won it for me by the hook. Green bay would hang on, 47-41.)
• TUC @ BAY – TUC +170 (The Sugar Skulls were able to overcome an early 16-0 hole on the road, playing some tenacious defense from that point onward. After a sluggish start on offense in the 1st half, they made just enough plays to defeat the Panthers by a score of 34-30.) $10.00 paid $27.00
• SD @ NAZ – OVER 81.5 (All I have to say about this one: Dear San Diego, what in the hot crispy Kentucky Fried [REDACTED] was that??? The 9 points scored is the lowest by a team in a single game since Week 1 last year. When one team proves to be utterly incompetent, the Under will easily hit every time. 48-9 was the score, for 57 points.)
For a second straight week, I accumulated more misses than hits, as 4 losses outweigh my 2 wins. Thankfully, the two bets that I did get correct were moneyline bets with better than even money payouts. A set of $10 bets on each of these would have returned $48.50, yielding a net loss of $11.50. Overall this season, I am 6-of-16, with a total result of roughly $28.73 of net loss.
YTD Breakdown of wagers by type:
Over/Under: 0-for-4
Spreads: 3-for-7
Moneyline: 3-for-5
This is the week when the IFL season officially goes in full swing; all 14 teams will take the field over the course of this coming weekend. That presents a great opportunity for me to potentially climb back into net gain territory on the season; will I be able to capitalize? Read on to find out!
*Odds and lines shown are at time of posting. They will be updated prior to kickoff if they change; however, any net gain/loss calculations will use the original values.
Friday 4/21: SXF @ GB (-2.5) | O/U 88.5 | Moneyline: SXF +115, GB -135
The pick: UNDER 88.5
I’m returning to the well with the Under on this matchup, the rare immediate home-and-home scenario after these teams played an instant classic on Sunday night. Operating on just four full days of rest, I wouldn’t expect the offenses to stay as efficient as they were in Sunday’s game, especially where most of the touchdowns scored were big chunk plays of 15 yards or more. These teams know each other well and should be able to adjust accordingly to prevent those from happening as often. For context, last week’s O/U was at 85.5, so to see this one up by a full 3 points is reason enough to try this pick again.
Friday 4/21: DUKE (-1) @ VGS | O/U 85.5 | DUKE -115, VGS -105
The pick: DUKE -1.5 spread
Vegas will be the fresher team off a bye week, but are quickly staring at a potential crossroads of their season. Aside from a season-opening win against a battered Iowa team, they haven’t done much to move the needle for me, especially with a brutal home loss to San Diego under their belt. Duke City, meanwhile, has managed a respectable 2-2 start despite a tough opening schedule that has featured Northern Arizona (eight point win), Frisco (five point loss), and Arizona (11 point loss). Right now, the Gladiators look to be the better team on paper, regardless of what DaQuan Neal’s status winds up being for the Knight Hawks. Look for Duke City to respond in a big way after last week’s loss, despite trading Nate Davis to San Diego earlier this week.
Saturday 4/22: ARI @ FRI (-6.5) | O/U 102.5 | Moneyline: ARI +200, FRI -240
The pick: FRI -6.5 spread
I don’t think there’s any question that the Fighters are the undisputed class of the IFL right now, with last week’s convincing win over Massachusetts the latest token to that argument. Frisco has won every game by at least 5 points – with that 5-point win coming on the road at Duke City. Drew Powell may or may not be back for this one, but not even the potential return of the 2-time defending IFL MVP can sway me from this selection. That’s just how dominant Frisco is playing at the moment, so I’m confident locking them in before a potential jump to -7.5.
Saturday 4/22: TUL @ IOWA (Pick ‘Em) | O/U 80.5 | Moneyline: TUL -110, IOWA -110
The pick: OVER 80.5
Perhaps against our best wishes, someone is going to win this battle between the two lowest-ranked teams in the IFL. Of course, the range of possible outcomes varies wildly whenever two bad teams collide, which makes this game the biggest betting risk regardless of which way you go. Iowa signed QB Jonathan Bane during their bye week, who played in the NAL last season for the Carolina Cobras. He’ll have a shot to start after Zach Reader failed to convincingly seize the opportunity in Iowa’s loss at Sioux Falls two weeks ago. Both teams surrender over 50 points per game, providing both offenses a great opportunity to put up some points. Notably, this is the first game of the season – at least that I’ve seen – that is a true Pick ‘Em, as both teams are -110 on the moneyline as of posting.
Saturday 4/22: MASS @ QC (-1) | O/U 105.5 | Moneyline: MASS -105, QC -115
The pick: QC -1 spread
I’ve seen enough from the Pirates’ defense to confidently say that the 2023 version lacks the punch that 2021 had, or even 2022 for that matter. Which is bad news for the Bay State Buccos, considering their next opponent is led by QB E.J. Hilliard, who’s playing at a First-Team All-IFL level right now. The Pirates have never been known as a shootout type of team, which might have to be their formula to potentially win this game, and perhaps for the remainder of 2023 moving forward, unless a star emerges quickly on the defensive side of the ball. Give me a second straight Steamwheeler cover, though this is as close to a Pick ‘Em as you’ll get.
Saturday 4/22: SD @ TUC (-14.5) | O/U 75.5 | No Moneyline bets available as of posting
The pick: TUC -14.5 spread
The final home opener of the season will finally go down in Tucson this weekend, as the Sugar Skulls welcome a San Diego team coming off an embarrassing 48-9 letdown at Northern Arizona. The Strike Force offense has looked completely lost for most of this season, with neither Demry Croft nor Aaron Aiken providing anything close to startable QB play. Even with San Diego's trade for Nate Davis from Duke City this week, this should comfortably be a win for Tucson, as long as they set the tone right away, similar to what the Wranglers were able to do last week. If San Diego somehow plays to their “average” of 27 points per game, Tucson would need at least 42 for the cover. In front of their home fans, that should be more than doable. Notably, these two teams met earlier in the season, when the Skulls won 35-16 in San Diego. Take the favorite and the home points.
Sunday 4/23: NAZ (-2.5) @ BAY, | O/U 90.5 | Moneyline: NAZ -135, BAY +115
The pick: BAY +115 Moneyline
Oddsmakers have suddenly become bearish on Bay Area, after the Panthers have dropped consecutive games as favorites against Massachusetts and Tucson. Now is the opportune time to strike on that market movement, as the Wranglers have yet to be tested on the road. And it’s not as if Bay Area has played poorly, as those losses came by 7 and 4 points against two Top-5 teams in the league. I’d expect another one-score game, and for the Panthers to find the needed gear to close the game out late.
Recommended 3-leg parlay:
“Lock” pick: Frisco moneyline (-240)
“Mid-Range” pick: Massachusetts at Quad City – Under 105.5 (-110)
“Value-Boosting” pick: Bay Area moneyline (+115)
Parlay odds: +481 ($10 wins ~$48.14)
Will I (finally) succeed on an Over/Under pick this week? Do you suspect any surprising results or predictions of upset specials? Make your voice heard with a comment below!
**Updated on 4/21/2023, at 9:00 PM ET**