Post by alecs on Apr 26, 2023 8:57:44 GMT -8
Happy Wednesday, IFL Fans!
Welcome to Volume V of my "Wager Wednesday" bit, in which I examine the current landscape of the upcoming week's games, based on lines and odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. As an advocate of accountability, I will recap my results - whether genius or moronic - from the prior week as well. With that, let's see how my picks from last week turned out:
• SXF @ GB – UNDER 88.5 (Not only did these two teams pick up exactly where they left off in Week 5, the offenses went into overdrive in an old-fashioned shootout. Sioux Falls got their revenge in a 55-47 win, with the 102 combined points easily going over projection.)
• DUKE @ VGS – DUKE -1.5 (I stuck with this pick even with the Nate Davis trade, but the Gladiators offense stalled with the underwhelming rotation of Demry Croft and Aaron Aiken at the helm. Vegas played a complete game wire-to-wire en route to a 50-26 victory.)
• ARI @ FRI – FRI -6.5 (The showcase game of the week lived up to the hype, in a game where Arizona played themselves in a position to possibly win. In the end, Frisco proved too much, and the Fighters stayed perfect with a 52-42 win.) $10.00 paid $19.09
• TUL @ iOWA – OVER 80.5 (HALLELUJAH!! My first successful over-under pick of the season predictably involves the game that I saw the most volatility in. The offenses were on full display, as the Oilers earned their first win as a franchise, prevailing 54-48, for 102 combined points.) $10.00 paid $19.09
• MASS @ QC – QC -1 (Late-game magic bailed me out on this wager, with the classic E.J. Hilliard to Keyvan Rudd connection striking gold once again. Quad City’s game-winning touchdown with 3 seconds left gave the Steamwheelers the 49-44 win, and of course, the cover.) $10.00 paid $19.09
• SD @ TUC – TUC -14.5 (For the second straight season, the Strike Force pulled off the improbable upset in Tucson, thanks to a late-game mental lapse by two Tucson defensive backs on a game-tying Hail Mary attempt. The Strike Force claimed the win in double overtime, 51-44.)
• NAZ @ BAY – BAY +115 (I had suspected the Wranglers might struggle in their first road game of the season. I did not suspect they’d fall completely flat in a 47-13 walloping.) $10.00 paid $21.50
Overall, a successful week of betting despite the rough start on Friday, with 4-of-7 wagers proving to be winners. That includes my lone moneyline bet of the week with a +115 payout, as every other wager laid money at -110. A set of $10 bets on each of these would have returned $78.77, translating into a net gain of $8.77. Overall this season, I am 10-of-23 (10-13) with a total result of roughly $19.95 of net loss. For what it’s worth, my recommended 3-leg parlay from last week was a smashing success, converting $10 into $58.14 of cold hard cash! That victory is obviously not included with my cumulative single-game results.
YTD Breakdown of wagers by type:
Over/Under: 1-for-6
Spreads: 5-for-11
Moneyline: 4-for-6
Five games in this week’s schedule, as Tucson, Frisco, Green Bay, and Duke City each have the week off. Can I make it two winning weeks in a row for the first time this season? Read on to find out!
Friday 4/28: IOWA @ MASS (-21.5) | O/U 91.5 | No Moneyline bets as of initial posting
The pick: IOWA +21.5 spread
To be clear, I don’t believe Iowa wins this game. But the offense with Jonathan Bane has a puncher’s chance of making the game deceptively interesting, as the Pirates have yet to surrender under 40 points in a game this season. At 0-4, the Barnstormers are more desperate than ever to register win number one, which gives this matchup a sprinkle of trap game potential. Alejandro Bennifield could be close to a return as well, which might actually be a lateral move at this point considering the quality of play the Pirates have gotten from Anthony Russo (11 combined TD’s and just 2 turnovers). The visitors are capable of the cover here, take the three touchdowns of breathing room.
Friday 4/28: NAZ @ VGS (Pick ‘Em)| O/U 87.5 | Moneyline: NAZ -110, VGS -110
The pick: NAZ Moneyline -110
Opening this week as a Pick ‘Em proposition, this matchup is so intriguing to me, simply because both teams enter this game after strikingly opposite Week 6 performances. Vegas played nearly perfect football, while NAZ, well… didn’t. I’m going to give the defending champions the benefit of the doubt here, as I think they respond in their first trip to Vegas since raising the trophy at the Dollar Loan Center last August. As for the Knight Hawks, they’ve yet to piece together consecutive games with the level of efficiency we saw last week, so some regression to the mean is likely in order. We’re rolling the dice in Vegas, but on the visiting Wranglers!
Saturday 4/29: QC (-6.5) @ SXF | O/U 92.5 | Moneyline: QC -240, SXF +200
The pick: SXF Moneyline +200
These two teams match up for the 2nd time this season, with the Steamwheelers narrowly edging out the Storm 36-34 in Moline a few weeks ago. Now with South Dakota as the venue for the game, I see lots of value here picking the Storm outright. It is risky picking against a Quad City team on a 4-game winning streak, but two of those wins were against a pre-Nate Davis San Diego and expansion Tulsa, and they needed a late touchdown to barely sneak by Mass at home last week. Very justifiable triple-your-money dart throw in my opinion. On a separate note, Lorenzo Brown versus E.J. Hilliard might be the best head-to-head QB matchup this week.
Saturday 4/29: ARI (-14.5) @ TUL | O/U 95.5 | No Moneyline bets as of initial posting
The pick: OVER 95.5
Congratulations to the Tulsa Oilers on their first ever win as a franchise last week! Their reward: Play against Arizona this week. The Oilers’ defense has struggled mightily after a promising start to the season, and their 52.0 PA/g ranks second worst in the IFL only to Iowa. Not exactly an ideal matchup going against the Rattlers, especially with Drew Powell nearing a return. His pending status is reason enough to lock this over pick in early in the week, before a potential increase if he is ruled active and/or taken off Short-Term IR.
Sunday 4/30: BAY (-8.5) @ SD | O/U 85.5 | Moneyline: BAY -285, SD +240
The pick: BAY -8.5 spread
The Strike Force continue to completely baffle me, and perhaps the rest of the league. Oscillating week-to-week between very good and really really bad, the trend would indicate a clunker of a game this week. It’s hard to imagine that’ll be the case if Nate Davis gets his first start for the Strike Force on Sunday night, but the Panthers re-established themselves as real contenders with last week’s onslaught of the Wranglers, putting their championship upside on full display against the reigning champs. The better team roars on the road.
Recommended 3-leg parlay: (Last week’s parlay was perfect and hit for a payout of $58.14)
“Lock” pick: Northern Arizona at Vegas – Over 87.5 (-110)
“Mid-Range” pick: Iowa at Massachusetts – Over 91.5 (-110)
“Value-Boosting” pick: Sioux Falls Moneyline (+200)
Parlay Odds: +993 ($10 would win ~$99.33)
Welcome to Volume V of my "Wager Wednesday" bit, in which I examine the current landscape of the upcoming week's games, based on lines and odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. As an advocate of accountability, I will recap my results - whether genius or moronic - from the prior week as well. With that, let's see how my picks from last week turned out:
• SXF @ GB – UNDER 88.5 (Not only did these two teams pick up exactly where they left off in Week 5, the offenses went into overdrive in an old-fashioned shootout. Sioux Falls got their revenge in a 55-47 win, with the 102 combined points easily going over projection.)
• DUKE @ VGS – DUKE -1.5 (I stuck with this pick even with the Nate Davis trade, but the Gladiators offense stalled with the underwhelming rotation of Demry Croft and Aaron Aiken at the helm. Vegas played a complete game wire-to-wire en route to a 50-26 victory.)
• ARI @ FRI – FRI -6.5 (The showcase game of the week lived up to the hype, in a game where Arizona played themselves in a position to possibly win. In the end, Frisco proved too much, and the Fighters stayed perfect with a 52-42 win.) $10.00 paid $19.09
• TUL @ iOWA – OVER 80.5 (HALLELUJAH!! My first successful over-under pick of the season predictably involves the game that I saw the most volatility in. The offenses were on full display, as the Oilers earned their first win as a franchise, prevailing 54-48, for 102 combined points.) $10.00 paid $19.09
• MASS @ QC – QC -1 (Late-game magic bailed me out on this wager, with the classic E.J. Hilliard to Keyvan Rudd connection striking gold once again. Quad City’s game-winning touchdown with 3 seconds left gave the Steamwheelers the 49-44 win, and of course, the cover.) $10.00 paid $19.09
• SD @ TUC – TUC -14.5 (For the second straight season, the Strike Force pulled off the improbable upset in Tucson, thanks to a late-game mental lapse by two Tucson defensive backs on a game-tying Hail Mary attempt. The Strike Force claimed the win in double overtime, 51-44.)
• NAZ @ BAY – BAY +115 (I had suspected the Wranglers might struggle in their first road game of the season. I did not suspect they’d fall completely flat in a 47-13 walloping.) $10.00 paid $21.50
Overall, a successful week of betting despite the rough start on Friday, with 4-of-7 wagers proving to be winners. That includes my lone moneyline bet of the week with a +115 payout, as every other wager laid money at -110. A set of $10 bets on each of these would have returned $78.77, translating into a net gain of $8.77. Overall this season, I am 10-of-23 (10-13) with a total result of roughly $19.95 of net loss. For what it’s worth, my recommended 3-leg parlay from last week was a smashing success, converting $10 into $58.14 of cold hard cash! That victory is obviously not included with my cumulative single-game results.
YTD Breakdown of wagers by type:
Over/Under: 1-for-6
Spreads: 5-for-11
Moneyline: 4-for-6
Five games in this week’s schedule, as Tucson, Frisco, Green Bay, and Duke City each have the week off. Can I make it two winning weeks in a row for the first time this season? Read on to find out!
Friday 4/28: IOWA @ MASS (-21.5) | O/U 91.5 | No Moneyline bets as of initial posting
The pick: IOWA +21.5 spread
To be clear, I don’t believe Iowa wins this game. But the offense with Jonathan Bane has a puncher’s chance of making the game deceptively interesting, as the Pirates have yet to surrender under 40 points in a game this season. At 0-4, the Barnstormers are more desperate than ever to register win number one, which gives this matchup a sprinkle of trap game potential. Alejandro Bennifield could be close to a return as well, which might actually be a lateral move at this point considering the quality of play the Pirates have gotten from Anthony Russo (11 combined TD’s and just 2 turnovers). The visitors are capable of the cover here, take the three touchdowns of breathing room.
Friday 4/28: NAZ @ VGS (Pick ‘Em)| O/U 87.5 | Moneyline: NAZ -110, VGS -110
The pick: NAZ Moneyline -110
Opening this week as a Pick ‘Em proposition, this matchup is so intriguing to me, simply because both teams enter this game after strikingly opposite Week 6 performances. Vegas played nearly perfect football, while NAZ, well… didn’t. I’m going to give the defending champions the benefit of the doubt here, as I think they respond in their first trip to Vegas since raising the trophy at the Dollar Loan Center last August. As for the Knight Hawks, they’ve yet to piece together consecutive games with the level of efficiency we saw last week, so some regression to the mean is likely in order. We’re rolling the dice in Vegas, but on the visiting Wranglers!
Saturday 4/29: QC (-6.5) @ SXF | O/U 92.5 | Moneyline: QC -240, SXF +200
The pick: SXF Moneyline +200
These two teams match up for the 2nd time this season, with the Steamwheelers narrowly edging out the Storm 36-34 in Moline a few weeks ago. Now with South Dakota as the venue for the game, I see lots of value here picking the Storm outright. It is risky picking against a Quad City team on a 4-game winning streak, but two of those wins were against a pre-Nate Davis San Diego and expansion Tulsa, and they needed a late touchdown to barely sneak by Mass at home last week. Very justifiable triple-your-money dart throw in my opinion. On a separate note, Lorenzo Brown versus E.J. Hilliard might be the best head-to-head QB matchup this week.
Saturday 4/29: ARI (-14.5) @ TUL | O/U 95.5 | No Moneyline bets as of initial posting
The pick: OVER 95.5
Congratulations to the Tulsa Oilers on their first ever win as a franchise last week! Their reward: Play against Arizona this week. The Oilers’ defense has struggled mightily after a promising start to the season, and their 52.0 PA/g ranks second worst in the IFL only to Iowa. Not exactly an ideal matchup going against the Rattlers, especially with Drew Powell nearing a return. His pending status is reason enough to lock this over pick in early in the week, before a potential increase if he is ruled active and/or taken off Short-Term IR.
Sunday 4/30: BAY (-8.5) @ SD | O/U 85.5 | Moneyline: BAY -285, SD +240
The pick: BAY -8.5 spread
The Strike Force continue to completely baffle me, and perhaps the rest of the league. Oscillating week-to-week between very good and really really bad, the trend would indicate a clunker of a game this week. It’s hard to imagine that’ll be the case if Nate Davis gets his first start for the Strike Force on Sunday night, but the Panthers re-established themselves as real contenders with last week’s onslaught of the Wranglers, putting their championship upside on full display against the reigning champs. The better team roars on the road.
Recommended 3-leg parlay: (Last week’s parlay was perfect and hit for a payout of $58.14)
“Lock” pick: Northern Arizona at Vegas – Over 87.5 (-110)
“Mid-Range” pick: Iowa at Massachusetts – Over 91.5 (-110)
“Value-Boosting” pick: Sioux Falls Moneyline (+200)
Parlay Odds: +993 ($10 would win ~$99.33)