Post by alecs on May 3, 2023 8:42:35 GMT -8
Happy Wednesday, IFL Fans!
Welcome to Volume VI of my "Wager Wednesday" bit, in which I examine the current landscape of the upcoming week's games, based on lines and odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. As an advocate of accountability, I will recap my results - whether genius or moronic - from the prior week as well. With that, let's see how my picks from last week turned out:
• IOWA @ MASS – IOWA +21.5 (The Barnstormers hung tough in this one after getting pushed into an early 27-0 hole. They got as close as 13 points, but got sloppy with a few second-half turnovers that thwarted any viable upset bid. Massachusetts registered the 56-36 victory, the 20-point margin of victory falling within Iowa’s cover range. As an aside, the over/under for the game was set at 91.5, so Under bettors suffered the bad beat with the game reaching 92 points and losing by the hook.) $10.00 paid $19.09
• NAZ @ VGS – NAZ Pk (A game like this illustrates how recency bias can make the betting mind stray. The Wranglers responded well after last week’s disastrous outing, dipping into their winning 2022 formula of stout defense and opportunistic playmaking on offense. Vegas, on the other hand, was unable to find the positive momentum that carried them to victory last week. Northern Arizona would come out on top, 36-27.) $10.00 paid $19.09
• QC @ SXF – SXF +200 (The moneyline has treated me quite well thus far this season, and Sioux Falls played a fantastic game against a red-hot Steamwheelers team that had been on a four-game win streak. The Storm defended home turf with a 59-47 win and tripled my money in the process!) $10.00 paid $30.00
• ARI @ TUL – OVER 95.5 (In a mind-boggling unexpected twist in a doozy of a game, the Oilers gifted the game to the Rattlers on an inexplicable pick-six on a questionable play call. At the time of the fateful play, the game was tied at 46, and a potential game-winning field goal would have fallen short of this number by the hook. Another betting bailout if I’ve ever seen one, but I’ll take them any way I can get them! Arizona would win, 53-46, on a game totaling 99 points.) $10.00 paid $19.09
• BAY @ SD – BAY -8.5 (Bay Area did wind up winning, but in a game that required the game-winning touchdown as time expired. The Panthers 54-51 win – a three point margin of victory - fell short of the 8.5 needed to cover.)
San Diego’s strong showing prevented the perfect week for me, but 4-of-5 winners still qualifies as my best week of the season thus far. For the second straight week, my only moneyline bet of the week paid in spades, with the Sioux Falls Storm win lacing my wallet with a net gain of $20 on that bet alone. A set of $10 bets on each of these would have returned $87.27, translating into a net gain of $37.27. Overall this season, I am a dead-even 14-of-28 (14-14) with a total result of roughly $17.32 of net gain. My recommended 3-leg parlay from last week sadly did not hit, as the Northern Arizona vs. Vegas game totaled just 63 points, where I needed over 87.5. A shame, because the other two legs were successful (Iowa vs. Mass Over 91.5 and Sioux Falls ML).
YTD Breakdown of wagers by type:
Over/Under: 2-for-7
Spreads: 6-for-13
Moneyline: 6-for-8 (I am treating the NAZ/VGS pick as a moneyline, as it appears on the original post, even though that betting option was removed a couple days before kickoff)
Week 8 of the IFL season contains six games over the course of three days (Friday through Sunday), with Arizona and San Diego on bye. Can I keep my positive momentum going and make it a third straight week with more hits than misses? Read on to find out!
Friday 5/5: MASS (-9.5) @ GB | O/U 100.5 | No Moneyline bets as of initial posting
The pick: GB +9.5 spread
Okay, okay, before you roll your eyes at me because I’m selecting “against” my hometown Pirates, allow me to explain the reasoning behind it. Historically, the Resch Center has been a house of horrors for the Pirates; they’ve lost both all-time meetings in Green Bay in heartbreaking fashions – an onside kick recovery led to a walk-off touchdown drive in 2021, and a Hail Mary to force overtime doomed them last year. Now fast forward to present, where Ja’rome Johnson has played himself into the Top-7 QB discussion as a dual threat, which the Pirates have had trouble containing so far on the season. Plus, Massachusetts has the “undefeated at home but winless on the road” narrative that they’ll try to buck, but it may be rougher sledding on Friday than most fans realize. I’d go Blizzard moneyline if it was being offered, but such is not the case. Consequently, I’ll settle for the home cover.
***O/U was previously 101.5***
Saturday 5/6: QC (-16.5) @ IOWA | O/U 99.5 | No Moneyline bets as of initial posting
The pick: UNDER 99.5
Quad City gets a great bounce-back spot after having their four-game winning streak snapped last Saturday in Sioux Falls. Meanwhile, the Barnstormers quarterback carousel will continue, as they released Jonathan Bane on Tuesday and acquired Noah Johnson from Frisco**. Johnson was put on RTR (Refuse to Report) on Thursday, which means we’re either getting the underwhelming Zach Reader or the brand-new Henry Ogala as Iowa’s starting QB. They might have a tough time cracking 30 in this game. I'd play this under to as low as 90.5.
Saturday 5/6: TUL @ SXF (-15.5) | O/U 96.5 | No Moneyline bets as of initial posting
The pick: OVER 96.5
Sioux Falls has reached the 50-burger mark in three of their five games this season and now get to face a bottom-dwelling Tulsa Oilers team that lost a devastating heartbreaker to Arizona last week. The Oilers offense has seen a revitalization since Vinnie Espinoza took the reins as the starting QB, and the fact that they were basically stride-for-stride with Arizona shows that they cannot be treated as pushovers any longer. There’s no reason why this total shouldn’t be 100 or more; I adamantly suggest locking this in now before it potentially moves to triple digits.
Saturday 5/6: NAZ @ TUC (-5.5) | O/U 78.5 | Moneyline: NAZ +165, TUC -195
The pick: NAZ +165 Moneyline
These teams went toe-to-toe in last year’s playoffs and look to be on a collision course for another postseason encounter come July. Saturday’s showdown will mark the end of a 3-game road stand for the Wranglers, while Tucson had a bye last week, giving them two weeks to recuperate after a startling double-OT loss against San Diego. It’s a bit shocking to me to see such an evenly-matched game on paper favor one team by this much, even though Tucson is at home. That makes a straight up Wrangler win a very attractive bet to me, give me NAZ for a second straight road win.
Sunday 5/7: DUKE @ FRI (-23.5) | O/U 94.5 | No Moneyline bets as of initial posting
The pick: UNDER 94.5
This will be the second meeting between the Fighters and the Gladiators this season, but we live in a much different world now than we did when Frisco took the matchup on April 1st. The obvious difference is that Nate Davis is now a member of the Strike Force, leaving Demry Croft and Aaron Aiken as the QB options for Duke City. Those two have struggled mightily regardless of which uniform they’ve worn, and now they have to play against the #1 scoring defense in the IFL… in their barn. I could easily see this game playing out where Frisco can just coast to an easy win, similar to their 35-13 win over Tulsa in Week 2. As dominant as the Fighters have been, I worry a bit about that potential game script coming to reality once more, so I feel much better with the under in this one.
Saturday 5/6: VGS @ BAY (-5.5) | O/U 86.5 | Moneyline: VGS +160, BAY -190
The pick: UNDER 86.5
Bay Area made a bit of franchise history last week, as they take their first ever multi-game winning streak into Monday’s home intra-conference matchup against Vegas, who had a letdown game last week against the Wranglers. So far this season, putting up points against the Panthers is significantly tougher at SAP Center, and the numbers back that up: 94 points allowed in 3 home games (31.3 pt/g) and 110 points allowed in 2 road games (55.0 pt/g). Expect a higher level of execution from Bay Area going up against a Vegas team that plays closer to its floor more often than it does its ceiling. I’ll be keeping my eye out for a possible Da’Quan Neal return announcement, which would impact the lines and odds if the Knight Hawks activate him and start him over Joey Mancuso. Also, each of Vegas’ last three games have fallen comfortably under this total (73 vs. SD, 76 vs. DUKE, 63 vs. NAZ).
***Game was moved from Monday 5/8***
Recommended 3-leg parlay:
Friday’s Pick: Massachusetts vs. Green Bay - UNDER 101.5 (-110)
Saturday’s Pick: Northern Arizona vs. Tucson – Wranglers Moneyline (+165)
Saturday's 2nd Pick: Vegas vs. Bay Area – UNDER 86.5 (-110)
Parlay Odds: +865 ($10 would win ~86.58)
Agree or disagree on any of the bets? Any parlays that you've got a strong gut feeling about? Sound off in the comments below!
IFL Championship Winner Odds:
Frisco Fighters +200
Quad City Steamwheelers +600
Arizona Rattlers +600
Tucson Sugar Skulls +650
Mass Pirates +700
Bay Area Panthers +950
Sioux Falls Storm +1100
NAZ Wranglers +1200
Vegas Knight Hawks +1600
SD Strike Force +1800
Duke City Gladiators +2500
Green Bay Blizzard +3500
Tulsa Oilers +5500
Iowa Barnstormers +7500
***UPDATED ON SATURDAY 5/6/23 at 1:20 AM ET***
Welcome to Volume VI of my "Wager Wednesday" bit, in which I examine the current landscape of the upcoming week's games, based on lines and odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. As an advocate of accountability, I will recap my results - whether genius or moronic - from the prior week as well. With that, let's see how my picks from last week turned out:
• IOWA @ MASS – IOWA +21.5 (The Barnstormers hung tough in this one after getting pushed into an early 27-0 hole. They got as close as 13 points, but got sloppy with a few second-half turnovers that thwarted any viable upset bid. Massachusetts registered the 56-36 victory, the 20-point margin of victory falling within Iowa’s cover range. As an aside, the over/under for the game was set at 91.5, so Under bettors suffered the bad beat with the game reaching 92 points and losing by the hook.) $10.00 paid $19.09
• NAZ @ VGS – NAZ Pk (A game like this illustrates how recency bias can make the betting mind stray. The Wranglers responded well after last week’s disastrous outing, dipping into their winning 2022 formula of stout defense and opportunistic playmaking on offense. Vegas, on the other hand, was unable to find the positive momentum that carried them to victory last week. Northern Arizona would come out on top, 36-27.) $10.00 paid $19.09
• QC @ SXF – SXF +200 (The moneyline has treated me quite well thus far this season, and Sioux Falls played a fantastic game against a red-hot Steamwheelers team that had been on a four-game win streak. The Storm defended home turf with a 59-47 win and tripled my money in the process!) $10.00 paid $30.00
• ARI @ TUL – OVER 95.5 (In a mind-boggling unexpected twist in a doozy of a game, the Oilers gifted the game to the Rattlers on an inexplicable pick-six on a questionable play call. At the time of the fateful play, the game was tied at 46, and a potential game-winning field goal would have fallen short of this number by the hook. Another betting bailout if I’ve ever seen one, but I’ll take them any way I can get them! Arizona would win, 53-46, on a game totaling 99 points.) $10.00 paid $19.09
• BAY @ SD – BAY -8.5 (Bay Area did wind up winning, but in a game that required the game-winning touchdown as time expired. The Panthers 54-51 win – a three point margin of victory - fell short of the 8.5 needed to cover.)
San Diego’s strong showing prevented the perfect week for me, but 4-of-5 winners still qualifies as my best week of the season thus far. For the second straight week, my only moneyline bet of the week paid in spades, with the Sioux Falls Storm win lacing my wallet with a net gain of $20 on that bet alone. A set of $10 bets on each of these would have returned $87.27, translating into a net gain of $37.27. Overall this season, I am a dead-even 14-of-28 (14-14) with a total result of roughly $17.32 of net gain. My recommended 3-leg parlay from last week sadly did not hit, as the Northern Arizona vs. Vegas game totaled just 63 points, where I needed over 87.5. A shame, because the other two legs were successful (Iowa vs. Mass Over 91.5 and Sioux Falls ML).
YTD Breakdown of wagers by type:
Over/Under: 2-for-7
Spreads: 6-for-13
Moneyline: 6-for-8 (I am treating the NAZ/VGS pick as a moneyline, as it appears on the original post, even though that betting option was removed a couple days before kickoff)
Week 8 of the IFL season contains six games over the course of three days (Friday through Sunday), with Arizona and San Diego on bye. Can I keep my positive momentum going and make it a third straight week with more hits than misses? Read on to find out!
Friday 5/5: MASS (-9.5) @ GB | O/U 100.5 | No Moneyline bets as of initial posting
The pick: GB +9.5 spread
Okay, okay, before you roll your eyes at me because I’m selecting “against” my hometown Pirates, allow me to explain the reasoning behind it. Historically, the Resch Center has been a house of horrors for the Pirates; they’ve lost both all-time meetings in Green Bay in heartbreaking fashions – an onside kick recovery led to a walk-off touchdown drive in 2021, and a Hail Mary to force overtime doomed them last year. Now fast forward to present, where Ja’rome Johnson has played himself into the Top-7 QB discussion as a dual threat, which the Pirates have had trouble containing so far on the season. Plus, Massachusetts has the “undefeated at home but winless on the road” narrative that they’ll try to buck, but it may be rougher sledding on Friday than most fans realize. I’d go Blizzard moneyline if it was being offered, but such is not the case. Consequently, I’ll settle for the home cover.
***O/U was previously 101.5***
Saturday 5/6: QC (-16.5) @ IOWA | O/U 99.5 | No Moneyline bets as of initial posting
The pick: UNDER 99.5
Quad City gets a great bounce-back spot after having their four-game winning streak snapped last Saturday in Sioux Falls. Meanwhile, the Barnstormers quarterback carousel will continue, as they released Jonathan Bane on Tuesday and acquired Noah Johnson from Frisco**. Johnson was put on RTR (Refuse to Report) on Thursday, which means we’re either getting the underwhelming Zach Reader or the brand-new Henry Ogala as Iowa’s starting QB. They might have a tough time cracking 30 in this game. I'd play this under to as low as 90.5.
Saturday 5/6: TUL @ SXF (-15.5) | O/U 96.5 | No Moneyline bets as of initial posting
The pick: OVER 96.5
Sioux Falls has reached the 50-burger mark in three of their five games this season and now get to face a bottom-dwelling Tulsa Oilers team that lost a devastating heartbreaker to Arizona last week. The Oilers offense has seen a revitalization since Vinnie Espinoza took the reins as the starting QB, and the fact that they were basically stride-for-stride with Arizona shows that they cannot be treated as pushovers any longer. There’s no reason why this total shouldn’t be 100 or more; I adamantly suggest locking this in now before it potentially moves to triple digits.
Saturday 5/6: NAZ @ TUC (-5.5) | O/U 78.5 | Moneyline: NAZ +165, TUC -195
The pick: NAZ +165 Moneyline
These teams went toe-to-toe in last year’s playoffs and look to be on a collision course for another postseason encounter come July. Saturday’s showdown will mark the end of a 3-game road stand for the Wranglers, while Tucson had a bye last week, giving them two weeks to recuperate after a startling double-OT loss against San Diego. It’s a bit shocking to me to see such an evenly-matched game on paper favor one team by this much, even though Tucson is at home. That makes a straight up Wrangler win a very attractive bet to me, give me NAZ for a second straight road win.
Sunday 5/7: DUKE @ FRI (-23.5) | O/U 94.5 | No Moneyline bets as of initial posting
The pick: UNDER 94.5
This will be the second meeting between the Fighters and the Gladiators this season, but we live in a much different world now than we did when Frisco took the matchup on April 1st. The obvious difference is that Nate Davis is now a member of the Strike Force, leaving Demry Croft and Aaron Aiken as the QB options for Duke City. Those two have struggled mightily regardless of which uniform they’ve worn, and now they have to play against the #1 scoring defense in the IFL… in their barn. I could easily see this game playing out where Frisco can just coast to an easy win, similar to their 35-13 win over Tulsa in Week 2. As dominant as the Fighters have been, I worry a bit about that potential game script coming to reality once more, so I feel much better with the under in this one.
Saturday 5/6: VGS @ BAY (-5.5) | O/U 86.5 | Moneyline: VGS +160, BAY -190
The pick: UNDER 86.5
Bay Area made a bit of franchise history last week, as they take their first ever multi-game winning streak into Monday’s home intra-conference matchup against Vegas, who had a letdown game last week against the Wranglers. So far this season, putting up points against the Panthers is significantly tougher at SAP Center, and the numbers back that up: 94 points allowed in 3 home games (31.3 pt/g) and 110 points allowed in 2 road games (55.0 pt/g). Expect a higher level of execution from Bay Area going up against a Vegas team that plays closer to its floor more often than it does its ceiling. I’ll be keeping my eye out for a possible Da’Quan Neal return announcement, which would impact the lines and odds if the Knight Hawks activate him and start him over Joey Mancuso. Also, each of Vegas’ last three games have fallen comfortably under this total (73 vs. SD, 76 vs. DUKE, 63 vs. NAZ).
***Game was moved from Monday 5/8***
Recommended 3-leg parlay:
Friday’s Pick: Massachusetts vs. Green Bay - UNDER 101.5 (-110)
Saturday’s Pick: Northern Arizona vs. Tucson – Wranglers Moneyline (+165)
Saturday's 2nd Pick: Vegas vs. Bay Area – UNDER 86.5 (-110)
Parlay Odds: +865 ($10 would win ~86.58)
Agree or disagree on any of the bets? Any parlays that you've got a strong gut feeling about? Sound off in the comments below!
IFL Championship Winner Odds:
Frisco Fighters +200
Quad City Steamwheelers +600
Arizona Rattlers +600
Tucson Sugar Skulls +650
Mass Pirates +700
Bay Area Panthers +950
Sioux Falls Storm +1100
NAZ Wranglers +1200
Vegas Knight Hawks +1600
SD Strike Force +1800
Duke City Gladiators +2500
Green Bay Blizzard +3500
Tulsa Oilers +5500
Iowa Barnstormers +7500
***UPDATED ON SATURDAY 5/6/23 at 1:20 AM ET***