Post by alecs on May 10, 2023 10:59:48 GMT -8
Happy Wednesday, IFL Fans!
Welcome to Volume VII of my "Wager Wednesday" bit, in which I examine the current landscape of the upcoming week's games, based on lines and odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. As an advocate of accountability, I will recap my results - whether genius or moronic - from the prior week as well. With that, let's see how my picks from last week turned out:
• MASS @ GB – GB +9.5 (A closely contested game in which neither team led by more than seven at any point, this was basically as close to a wire-for-wire betting win as they come. The Pirates slew the demons of the past with the overtime win, 50-49, on Isaac Zico’s walk-off two-point reception. Still a home cover for Green Bay, though.) $10.00 paid $19.09
• QC @ IOWA – UNDER 99.5 (This might have had a shot to go over if Iowa had stuck with Jonathan Bane as QB, and it surprised me that this line did not move at all during the week as a result. Despite a 60-point outburst from the Steamwheelers, Iowa only managed 34 points - with just seven in the first half - and their last touchdown coming in the dying seconds of garbage time. Quad City’s 60-34 win totaled 94 points; and while a bit closer than comfort, still stayed out of triple-digit territory.) $10.00 paid $19.09
• TUL @ SXF – OVER 96.5 (This bet was looking sooo very good at halftime, as the two teams combined for 61 points in the game’s first half. Then the third quarter happened. With no scoring. Whatsoever. Can’t really win an over bet if the teams go scoreless for a 15+ minute stretch of time. Sioux Falls would emerge victorious by a score of 52-35, with the 87 combined points falling short of the mark.)
• NAZ @ TUC – NAZ +165 (Oh, moneyline, how I love thee. A matchup that could preview as a first-round playoff matchup transpired as an unexpected defensive duel, where the teams combined for equally as many touchdowns as turnovers (seven). Northern Arizona jumped out to the better start, which in the end turned out to be the difference in this game. The Wranglers put the game away with a late touchdown in a 31-21 win.) $10.00 paid $26.50
• VGS @ BAY – UNDER 86.5 (So, yeah, this one was dead wrong. The Panthers did basically anything they wanted to against a Vegas defense that simply had no answers. This game eclipsed the 86.5 point threshold with three full minutes to spare… in the third quarter. Definitely a different game script from the rock fights we’ve seen so far this year at SAP Center. Bay Area’s 62-44 triumph obliterated the oddsmakers’ projection with 106 total points.)
• DUKE @ FRI – UNDER 94.5 (Even with Charles McCullum at QB, Duke City’s offense remained stuck in the mud at Frisco. The game turned out to be nothing more than another padded practice for Frisco, obliterating the Gladiators 67-15. The total of 82 points remained under the mark, closing out the week with a winning wager.) $10.00 paid $19.09
Make that three consecutive weeks with four successful picks (out of six), and once again the only moneyline bet struck gold at +165! I also had a strong gut feeling on overs/unders for this week and split two of those four predictions; not bad considering I was way below 50% on those entering this past week. A set of $10 bets on each of these would have returned $83.77, translating into a net gain of $23.77. Overall this season, I am 18-of-34 (18-16) with a total result of roughly $41.09 of net gain.
My recommended 3-leg parlay from last week fell one leg short, and this one really hurts because I had constructed it with the understanding that Bay Area’s game had been originally scheduled for Monday. That would have afforded me the possibility of cashing out early or hedging a tiny bit on the Over for the Knight Hawks-Panthers game, as both other legs hit – MASS/GB Under 101.5 and NAZ ML. But that sneaky schedule change, coupled with the Knight Hawks’ inability to stop the Panthers, killed that chance for a super payday.
YTD Breakdown of wagers by type:
Over/Under: 4-for-11
Spreads: 7-for-14
Moneyline: 7-for-9
Week 9 is the first of three consecutive weeks where all 14 teams will be in action across the IFL, providing every opportunity for me to continue this nice run from the past few weeks (12-6 in that span). How many of this week’s seven games will I be able to forecast correctly? Read on to find out!
Friday 5/12: SXF @ QC (-3.5) | O/U 97.5 | Moneyline: SXF +140, QC -165
The pick: SXF +140 Moneyline
Friday Night will hold the rubber match of this Storm-Steamwheelers regular season series, with both teams notching a win at home so far (Quad City in Week 3, Sioux Falls in Week 7). It’s entirely possible that this could be a matchup we see in the playoffs as well, with both teams playing at a high level throughout this season. The Storm surrender just under 40 points per game and already held Quad City underneath that total in the first meeting in Moline. Don’t get me wrong, Quad City is a great team, but some of the advanced metrics indicate they’re more Top-6 than Top-3, so I love Sioux Falls to complete the trifecta and make it a third straight cover against the Wheelers, with a very realistic chance of stealing the win.
Saturday 5/13: SD @ GB (-3.5) | O/U 91.5 | Moneyline: SD +140, GB -165
The pick: OVER 91.5
Both teams enter this week ranked outside the top 4 in their respective conferences, and as we near the halfway mark of the season, this feels like a must-win for both squads as they look to turn their season around. It’s a deceptively weird game to say it could have “Game of the Year” potential, but I firmly believe we’ll have a classic on our hands. The most recent losses for both teams came on the final play of the game against two championship caliber squads (SD vs. Bay Area two weeks ago, and GB vs. Mass last week). This game should feature plenty of points as the teams trade punches and do everything they can to secure a pivotal win.
Saturday 5/13: TUC (-7.5) @ DUKE | O/U 79.5 | Moneyline: TUC -260, DUKE +220
The pick: TUC -7.5 Spread
It’s a good thing that the Sugar Skulls executed their season-opening three game road trip to perfection, because they’ve dropped their last two games at home. Despite that, Tucson gets a nice bounce-back opportunity against a Duke City team still attempting to find its identity in the post-Nate Davis era. Part of Tucson’s recent struggles can be traced back to the rocky play of Ramone Atkins, but I’m expecting him to put forth a much cleaner effort – hopefully devoid of turnovers – against the Gladiators in a #RevengeGame. Remember, Tucson has defeated Arizona and Bay Area earlier this year, so the team’s upside is still there. This pick reflects that belief.
Saturday 5/13: MASS (-21.5) @ IOWA | O/U 98.5 | No Moneyline bets as of initial posting
The pick: IOWA +21.5 Spread
The Pirates and Barnstormers renew their rivalry for the second time in three weeks, with Massachusetts victorious in Worcester 56-36 on April 28. And while Iowa’s showing last week was dismal, it did allow them to let loose in the second half, so we got to see a little rushing upside from Zach Reader. If Iowa can begin the game with that same “nothing to lose” style of play, things could get interesting in Des Moines. The Pirates are 1-2 on the road this year, needing overtime to barely scrape by GB last week. Take the home points.
Saturday 5/13: FRI (-30.5) @ TUL | O/U 93.5 | No Moneyline bets as of initial posting
The pick: FRI -30.5 Spread
I mean, this game shouldn’t require that much thought. Frisco is the best team in the IFL (coming off a 67-15 destruction of Duke City), while Tulsa is an expansion team that’s still learning the ropes at times. The first matchup was decided by “only” 22 points, but Frisco did not need anything close to their “A” game to make that happen. The Fighters should have absolutely no trouble staying perfect on the season and should easily make this number (albeit a sky-high one) against an Oiler team prone to ill-timed mistakes.
Saturday 5/13: BAY (-2.5) @ NAZ | O/U 83.5 | Moneyline: BAY -130, NAZ +110
The pick: NAZ +110 Moneyline
If we still had the “IFL Game of the Week” to showcase, this would have to be the one for Week 9. Both teams are 4-2, with the winner earning sole possession of the top spot in the Western Conference. The Panthers and Wranglers have met once already in SAP Center, with the Panthers dominating the Week 6 game 47-13. This game should look nothing like that one, as I think the Wranglers will be out for blood. The Panthers have also played a very home-heavy schedule so far, having not been tested much outside of San Jose yet. Another heavyweight bout with the Wranglers at plus odds, and at home to boot? Yes, please!
Saturday 5/13: ARI (-5.5) @ VGS | O/U 93.5 | Moneyline: ARI -190, VGS +160
The pick: OVER 93.5
The Knight Hawks return home after getting pounced by the Panthers last week, and will face an Arizona team fresh off a bye week and hungry to make a mid-season run to the top of the West. Four out of the six Rattlers games so far this season have gone over this total, with another at 93 points (at Bay Area in Week 2). And if this is the week when Drew Powell makes his much-anticipated return, that might hike this total into the 96-97 range. I'm locking this in now before a potential announcement of his status.
UPDATE: As suspected, Drew Powell was activated off Short-Term IR on Thursday. Whether he starts technically remains up in the air, but it's hard to imagine that the Rattlers would activate him and keep Jorge Reyna starting. Surprising that only the spread has changed by a single point, while the O/U has not changed.
Recommended 3-leg parlay:
Friday’s Pick: Sioux Falls vs. Quad City – Storm Moneyline (+140)
Saturday’s 1st Pick: San Diego vs. Green Bay – Strike Force Moneyline (+140)
Saturday’s 2nd Pick: Bay Area vs. Northern Arizona – Wranglers Moneyline (+110)
Parlay Odds: +1109 ($10.00 would win ~$110.96)
IFL Championship Winner Odds:
Green = Odds Increased from last week
Red = Odds Decreased from last week
Frisco Fighters +150
Arizona Rattlers +600
Quad City Steamwheelers +600
Massachusetts Pirates +700
Tucson Sugar Skulls +800
Bay Area Panthers +950
Sioux Falls Storm +1000
Northern Arizona Wranglers +1100
San Diego Strike Force +2000
Vegas Knight Hawks +2000
Green Bay Blizzard +3000
Duke City Gladiators +5000
Tulsa Oilers +6000
Iowa Barnstormers +7500
UPDATED 5/12/23 at 7:30PM ET
Welcome to Volume VII of my "Wager Wednesday" bit, in which I examine the current landscape of the upcoming week's games, based on lines and odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. As an advocate of accountability, I will recap my results - whether genius or moronic - from the prior week as well. With that, let's see how my picks from last week turned out:
• MASS @ GB – GB +9.5 (A closely contested game in which neither team led by more than seven at any point, this was basically as close to a wire-for-wire betting win as they come. The Pirates slew the demons of the past with the overtime win, 50-49, on Isaac Zico’s walk-off two-point reception. Still a home cover for Green Bay, though.) $10.00 paid $19.09
• QC @ IOWA – UNDER 99.5 (This might have had a shot to go over if Iowa had stuck with Jonathan Bane as QB, and it surprised me that this line did not move at all during the week as a result. Despite a 60-point outburst from the Steamwheelers, Iowa only managed 34 points - with just seven in the first half - and their last touchdown coming in the dying seconds of garbage time. Quad City’s 60-34 win totaled 94 points; and while a bit closer than comfort, still stayed out of triple-digit territory.) $10.00 paid $19.09
• TUL @ SXF – OVER 96.5 (This bet was looking sooo very good at halftime, as the two teams combined for 61 points in the game’s first half. Then the third quarter happened. With no scoring. Whatsoever. Can’t really win an over bet if the teams go scoreless for a 15+ minute stretch of time. Sioux Falls would emerge victorious by a score of 52-35, with the 87 combined points falling short of the mark.)
• NAZ @ TUC – NAZ +165 (Oh, moneyline, how I love thee. A matchup that could preview as a first-round playoff matchup transpired as an unexpected defensive duel, where the teams combined for equally as many touchdowns as turnovers (seven). Northern Arizona jumped out to the better start, which in the end turned out to be the difference in this game. The Wranglers put the game away with a late touchdown in a 31-21 win.) $10.00 paid $26.50
• VGS @ BAY – UNDER 86.5 (So, yeah, this one was dead wrong. The Panthers did basically anything they wanted to against a Vegas defense that simply had no answers. This game eclipsed the 86.5 point threshold with three full minutes to spare… in the third quarter. Definitely a different game script from the rock fights we’ve seen so far this year at SAP Center. Bay Area’s 62-44 triumph obliterated the oddsmakers’ projection with 106 total points.)
• DUKE @ FRI – UNDER 94.5 (Even with Charles McCullum at QB, Duke City’s offense remained stuck in the mud at Frisco. The game turned out to be nothing more than another padded practice for Frisco, obliterating the Gladiators 67-15. The total of 82 points remained under the mark, closing out the week with a winning wager.) $10.00 paid $19.09
Make that three consecutive weeks with four successful picks (out of six), and once again the only moneyline bet struck gold at +165! I also had a strong gut feeling on overs/unders for this week and split two of those four predictions; not bad considering I was way below 50% on those entering this past week. A set of $10 bets on each of these would have returned $83.77, translating into a net gain of $23.77. Overall this season, I am 18-of-34 (18-16) with a total result of roughly $41.09 of net gain.
My recommended 3-leg parlay from last week fell one leg short, and this one really hurts because I had constructed it with the understanding that Bay Area’s game had been originally scheduled for Monday. That would have afforded me the possibility of cashing out early or hedging a tiny bit on the Over for the Knight Hawks-Panthers game, as both other legs hit – MASS/GB Under 101.5 and NAZ ML. But that sneaky schedule change, coupled with the Knight Hawks’ inability to stop the Panthers, killed that chance for a super payday.
YTD Breakdown of wagers by type:
Over/Under: 4-for-11
Spreads: 7-for-14
Moneyline: 7-for-9
Week 9 is the first of three consecutive weeks where all 14 teams will be in action across the IFL, providing every opportunity for me to continue this nice run from the past few weeks (12-6 in that span). How many of this week’s seven games will I be able to forecast correctly? Read on to find out!
Friday 5/12: SXF @ QC (-3.5) | O/U 97.5 | Moneyline: SXF +140, QC -165
The pick: SXF +140 Moneyline
Friday Night will hold the rubber match of this Storm-Steamwheelers regular season series, with both teams notching a win at home so far (Quad City in Week 3, Sioux Falls in Week 7). It’s entirely possible that this could be a matchup we see in the playoffs as well, with both teams playing at a high level throughout this season. The Storm surrender just under 40 points per game and already held Quad City underneath that total in the first meeting in Moline. Don’t get me wrong, Quad City is a great team, but some of the advanced metrics indicate they’re more Top-6 than Top-3, so I love Sioux Falls to complete the trifecta and make it a third straight cover against the Wheelers, with a very realistic chance of stealing the win.
Saturday 5/13: SD @ GB (-3.5) | O/U 91.5 | Moneyline: SD +140, GB -165
The pick: OVER 91.5
Both teams enter this week ranked outside the top 4 in their respective conferences, and as we near the halfway mark of the season, this feels like a must-win for both squads as they look to turn their season around. It’s a deceptively weird game to say it could have “Game of the Year” potential, but I firmly believe we’ll have a classic on our hands. The most recent losses for both teams came on the final play of the game against two championship caliber squads (SD vs. Bay Area two weeks ago, and GB vs. Mass last week). This game should feature plenty of points as the teams trade punches and do everything they can to secure a pivotal win.
Saturday 5/13: TUC (-7.5) @ DUKE | O/U 79.5 | Moneyline: TUC -260, DUKE +220
The pick: TUC -7.5 Spread
It’s a good thing that the Sugar Skulls executed their season-opening three game road trip to perfection, because they’ve dropped their last two games at home. Despite that, Tucson gets a nice bounce-back opportunity against a Duke City team still attempting to find its identity in the post-Nate Davis era. Part of Tucson’s recent struggles can be traced back to the rocky play of Ramone Atkins, but I’m expecting him to put forth a much cleaner effort – hopefully devoid of turnovers – against the Gladiators in a #RevengeGame. Remember, Tucson has defeated Arizona and Bay Area earlier this year, so the team’s upside is still there. This pick reflects that belief.
Saturday 5/13: MASS (-21.5) @ IOWA | O/U 98.5 | No Moneyline bets as of initial posting
The pick: IOWA +21.5 Spread
The Pirates and Barnstormers renew their rivalry for the second time in three weeks, with Massachusetts victorious in Worcester 56-36 on April 28. And while Iowa’s showing last week was dismal, it did allow them to let loose in the second half, so we got to see a little rushing upside from Zach Reader. If Iowa can begin the game with that same “nothing to lose” style of play, things could get interesting in Des Moines. The Pirates are 1-2 on the road this year, needing overtime to barely scrape by GB last week. Take the home points.
Saturday 5/13: FRI (-30.5) @ TUL | O/U 93.5 | No Moneyline bets as of initial posting
The pick: FRI -30.5 Spread
I mean, this game shouldn’t require that much thought. Frisco is the best team in the IFL (coming off a 67-15 destruction of Duke City), while Tulsa is an expansion team that’s still learning the ropes at times. The first matchup was decided by “only” 22 points, but Frisco did not need anything close to their “A” game to make that happen. The Fighters should have absolutely no trouble staying perfect on the season and should easily make this number (albeit a sky-high one) against an Oiler team prone to ill-timed mistakes.
Saturday 5/13: BAY (-2.5) @ NAZ | O/U 83.5 | Moneyline: BAY -130, NAZ +110
The pick: NAZ +110 Moneyline
If we still had the “IFL Game of the Week” to showcase, this would have to be the one for Week 9. Both teams are 4-2, with the winner earning sole possession of the top spot in the Western Conference. The Panthers and Wranglers have met once already in SAP Center, with the Panthers dominating the Week 6 game 47-13. This game should look nothing like that one, as I think the Wranglers will be out for blood. The Panthers have also played a very home-heavy schedule so far, having not been tested much outside of San Jose yet. Another heavyweight bout with the Wranglers at plus odds, and at home to boot? Yes, please!
Saturday 5/13: ARI (-5.5) @ VGS | O/U 93.5 | Moneyline: ARI -190, VGS +160
The pick: OVER 93.5
The Knight Hawks return home after getting pounced by the Panthers last week, and will face an Arizona team fresh off a bye week and hungry to make a mid-season run to the top of the West. Four out of the six Rattlers games so far this season have gone over this total, with another at 93 points (at Bay Area in Week 2). And if this is the week when Drew Powell makes his much-anticipated return, that might hike this total into the 96-97 range. I'm locking this in now before a potential announcement of his status.
UPDATE: As suspected, Drew Powell was activated off Short-Term IR on Thursday. Whether he starts technically remains up in the air, but it's hard to imagine that the Rattlers would activate him and keep Jorge Reyna starting. Surprising that only the spread has changed by a single point, while the O/U has not changed.
Recommended 3-leg parlay:
Friday’s Pick: Sioux Falls vs. Quad City – Storm Moneyline (+140)
Saturday’s 1st Pick: San Diego vs. Green Bay – Strike Force Moneyline (+140)
Saturday’s 2nd Pick: Bay Area vs. Northern Arizona – Wranglers Moneyline (+110)
Parlay Odds: +1109 ($10.00 would win ~$110.96)
IFL Championship Winner Odds:
Green = Odds Increased from last week
Red = Odds Decreased from last week
Frisco Fighters +150
Arizona Rattlers +600
Quad City Steamwheelers +600
Massachusetts Pirates +700
Tucson Sugar Skulls +800
Bay Area Panthers +950
Sioux Falls Storm +1000
Northern Arizona Wranglers +1100
San Diego Strike Force +2000
Vegas Knight Hawks +2000
Green Bay Blizzard +3000
Duke City Gladiators +5000
Tulsa Oilers +6000
Iowa Barnstormers +7500
UPDATED 5/12/23 at 7:30PM ET