Post by alecs on May 17, 2023 11:27:13 GMT -8
Happy Wednesday, IFL Fans!
Welcome to Volume VIII of my "Wager Wednesday" bit, in which I examine the current landscape of the upcoming week's games, based on lines and odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. As an advocate of accountability, I will recap my results - whether genius or moronic - from the prior week as well. With that, let's see how my picks from last week turned out:
• SXF @ GB – SXF +140 (The moneyline fun was bound to come up short eventually, and this was the game to have it happen. Sioux Falls actually played reasonably well, recovering from an early 21-3 deficit and held a brief lead in the second half. But Quad City pulled it together and strung a 26-7 run to close out the game, taking the game by a 47-30 final.)
• SD @ GB – OVER 91.5 (This bet got a little bit scary when Blizzard starting QB Ja’rome Johnson was forced from the game with an apparent knee injury in the first quarter. But Max Meylor stepped up nicely and engineered a fine performance, as Green Bay defeated San Diego 61-50 in a really chippy contest that featured a lot of unnecessary penalties late in the game. The 111 points were more than enough for me to “just walk away” a winner.) $10.00 paid $19.09
• TUC @ DUKE – TUC -7.5 (Duke City snapped out of its funk in a huge way on Saturday night, as Charles McCullum turned back the clock and accounted for five Duke City touchdowns en route to a 56-49 win against Tucson, who have now lost three straight games.)
• MASS @ IOWA – IOWA +21.5 (Undeniably the surprise result of the week – and the season if we’re being honest – the Barnstormers went wire-for-wire and simply outclassed a Pirates team that looked irredeemably lost. Not only did Iowa cover, they blew the Pirates out 73-43.) $10.00 paid $19.09
• FRI @ TUL – FRI -30.5 (This game came extremely close to being the first loss of the season for Frisco, as a last-second game-winning field goal attempt by Tulsa just missed the mark. The Fighters keep the perfect season dream alive with the 39-37 win, but didn’t even come remotely close to the cover.)
• BAY @ ARI – NAZ +110 (The IFL fanbase declared this the “Game of the Week” and by golly it did not disappoint. A hotly contested affair where either team could have won, the Wranglers got a pivotal stop on defense late in the game, and converted on what would hold up as the game-winning touchdown to avenge their previous loss to the Panthers. 35-34 Wranglers stood as the final score.) $10.00 paid $21.00
• ARI @ VGS – OVER 93.5 (These teams spent the first three quarters trading touchdown for touchdown, with the first defensive stand coming late in the third quarter. The game would end up being another heartbreaking one-point loss for Arizona despite Drew Powell’s return, as Vegas held off the Rattlers to win 55-54, for a total of 109 points.) $10.00 paid $19.09
The “Four successful picks in a week” train continues to chug along for a fourth straight week and featured yet another successful plus-odds moneyline bet thanks to Northern Arizona. I also seem to be getting far better with these over/under projections, as both of those picks were spot on the money this past week (SD/GB and ARI/VGS). A set of $10 bets on each of these would have returned $78.27, translating into a net gain of $8.27 for Week 9. Overall this season, I am 22-of-41 (22-19) with a total result of roughly $49.36 of net gain. Anyone who has followed/tailed my betting in the past four weeks has seen MASSIVE returns, with a record of 16-9 and a net gain of $78.09 since Week 6!
The recommended 3-leg parlay of the week did not convert, with only one successful leg (NAZ Moneyline) out of the three needed (SD Moneyline and SXF Moneyline both lost). Admittedly, this parlay was more of a speculative dart throw than the educated guesses that my previous parlays had been constructed as.
YTD Breakdown of wagers by type:
Over/Under: 6-for-13
Spreads: 8-for-17
Moneyline: 8-for-11
Week 10 will once again feature all 14 teams in the league, with six Saturday showdowns and a standalone Sunday contest scheduled. Will this be the week that I can string together five or more successful picks on the betslip? Read on to find out!
*Odds and lines shown are at time of posting. They will be updated prior to kickoff if they change; however, any net gain/loss calculations will use the original values.
Saturday 5/20: QC (-3.5) @ MASS | O/U 100.5 | Moneyline: QC -145, MASS +125
The pick: MASS +125 Moneyline
We went over this in Week 3, when the Pirates were handicapped as home underdogs against Bay Area, and I’ll echo the same message again since oddsmakers have reached that same verdict for this game. Why are we laying points on the Pirates at home?? Yes, I realize they got squashed by previously winless Iowa last week, but true contending teams are able to put those clunkers in the past and move forward with confidence (look no further than NAZ’s response after getting levelled by Bay Area in Week 6). Hometown bias aside, I firmly believe the team is capable of doing just that. We’re also at the stage in the season when we can safely say that if the Pirates drop this game, they’ll fall too far back to recover and earn a playoff game at home, so at the very least this game should be close to the end. And it’s one that the Pirates are certainly capable of pulling off, especially back in Worcester.
Saturday 5/20: IOWA @ GB (-6.5) | O/U 94.5 | Moneyline: IOWA +210, GB -250
The pick: OVER 94.5
Iowa is coming off an emphatic first win of the season, a masterclass 73-43 rout of a rock solid Pirates team. But now they return to the Resch Center, where in Week 3 their season turned for the worst when starting QB Darius James Peterson suffered a season-ending ACL injury. Meanwhile, Green Bay has a QB injury issue of its own, with Ja’rome Johnson going down in the first quarter of last week’s game versus San Diego. As of Thursday evening, Johnson has been placed on Short-Term IR, ruling him out for this game. Max Meylor is expected to draw the start in his absence after filling in last week. Even so, regardless of who’s at quarterback for either team, both defenses have been among the leakiest in the league, with both teams surrendering over 50 per game, meaning that the path to triple-digit combined points is a probable one.
Saturday 5/20: NAZ @ ARI (-1) | O/U 81.5 | Moneyline: NAZ -105, ARI -115
The pick: NAZ +110 Moneyline
It might be time to hover the hand over the “Panic” button for the Rattler faithful. I don’t think anyone had them below .500 (3-4) seven games into the season. Granted, two of those losses have been one-point defeats, and they were without reigning MVP Drew Powell up until he returned last week from injury. But in the same breath, they also could have (and probably should have) lost at Tulsa, but they got bailed out by a baffling play call. This is the first matchup between the Wranglers and Rattlers since last year’s Western Conference Championship, so it should be fueled with plenty of emotion and physicality, with memories of that game firmly in mind on both sides. I’m going Wranglers moneyline because, well, it’s won each of the last three weeks, so how can I possibly go against it now? Thankfully, I locked this bet in before the line moved on Saturday afternoon. Now the wager is laying 5 percent juice.
Saturday 5/20: FRI (-13.5) @ BAY | O/U 96.5 | No Moneylilne Bets as of initial posting
The pick: BAY +13.5 Spread
When lines opened this afternoon, I was absolutely floored by two observations: the fact that this game doesn’t have moneyline betting, and how heavily Frisco is favored on the road against a top Western Conference contender. That said, there’s a lot to like here backing the Panthers, as they are my 2nd ranked team in the IFL in my individual power ranking entering this week. I’m not even factoring Frisco’s closer-than-comfort win at Tulsa last week too heavily into this; I genuinely think Bay Area has as good a chance as any team right now to hand Frisco its first loss. A team the caliber of Bay Area should not be two-touchdown home dogs, even against the high-and-mighty Fighters. Take the home points.
Saturday 5/20: SXF (-2.5) @ TUC | O/U 81.5 | Moneyline: SXF -135, TUC +115
The pick: SXF -2.5 Spread
This is a matchup that carries a lot of intrigue, especially since the two foes aren’t particularly familiar with one another. The Sugar Skulls are losers of their last three games, and while none of those losses were horrendous blowouts (7 in 2OT, 10, 7), Tucson is clearly having trouble finding those clutch closing plays late in games. And this seems to be the type of rut where the Skulls have been - and could continue to be - their own worst enemy, which makes it difficult to back them right now. I like the Storm to come away with this win, and the minimal 2.5-point spread is one where I’m willing to lay the points.
Saturday 5/20: TUL @ VGS (-11.5) | O/U 89.5 | No Moneyline Bets as of initial posting
The pick: OVER 89.5
The Knight Hawks have played themselves right back into the Western Conference mix, thanks to last week’s 55-54 upset over the Arizona Rattlers. With Da’Quan Neal now at full strength, the Vegas offense re-gains that additional punch to it. That is bad news for a Tulsa defense surrendering more than 50 points per game, not to mention the Oilers have simply not been good on the road (their win at Iowa notwithstanding). The past two games involving Vegas have hit 106 and 109 points, and I originally projected this total to sit in the 95.5 range. Pick the points barrage with confidence!
Sunday 5/21: DUKE @ SD (-3.5) | O/U 85.5 | Moneyline: DUKE +130, SD -150
The pick: OVER 85.5
Here is yet another game where this total is absolutely puzzling to me. For starters, this is the Nate Davis #RevengeGame against his former Gladiators for the first time since the infamous trade a month ago, so how are we not expecting fireworks here? Secondly, Duke City very clearly found something on the offensive side of the ball if they hung 56 on Tucson’s stout defense last week, and nothing about that performance suggested it was a fluke. Just like the Tulsa/Vegas game, I was expecting this total to be way higher than its opening value. Take the over, and enjoy the show!
Recommended 3-leg parlay:
“Lock Pick”: Frisco vs. Bay Area – Panthers +13.5 Spread (-110)
“Confident Pick”: Tulsa vs. Vegas – OVER 89.5 (-110)
“Sunday’s Pick”: Duke City vs. San Diego – OVER 85.5 (-110)
Parlay Odds: +595 ($10.00 would win ~$59.57)
IFL Championship Winner Odds:
Green = Odds Increased from last week
Red = Odds Decreased from last week
Frisco Fighters +160
Quad City Steamwheelers +550
Northern Arizona Wranglers +800
Bay Area Panthers +800
Arizona Rattlers +800
Tucson Sugar Skulls +900
Massachusetts Pirates +950
Sioux Falls Storm +1000
Vegas Knight Hawks +1600
San Diego Strike Force +2000
Green Bay Blizzard +2800
Duke City Gladiators +4500
Iowa Barnstormers +6500
Tulsa Oilers +7000
UPDATED SATURDAY 5/20/23 at 4:50PM ET
Welcome to Volume VIII of my "Wager Wednesday" bit, in which I examine the current landscape of the upcoming week's games, based on lines and odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. As an advocate of accountability, I will recap my results - whether genius or moronic - from the prior week as well. With that, let's see how my picks from last week turned out:
• SXF @ GB – SXF +140 (The moneyline fun was bound to come up short eventually, and this was the game to have it happen. Sioux Falls actually played reasonably well, recovering from an early 21-3 deficit and held a brief lead in the second half. But Quad City pulled it together and strung a 26-7 run to close out the game, taking the game by a 47-30 final.)
• SD @ GB – OVER 91.5 (This bet got a little bit scary when Blizzard starting QB Ja’rome Johnson was forced from the game with an apparent knee injury in the first quarter. But Max Meylor stepped up nicely and engineered a fine performance, as Green Bay defeated San Diego 61-50 in a really chippy contest that featured a lot of unnecessary penalties late in the game. The 111 points were more than enough for me to “just walk away” a winner.) $10.00 paid $19.09
• TUC @ DUKE – TUC -7.5 (Duke City snapped out of its funk in a huge way on Saturday night, as Charles McCullum turned back the clock and accounted for five Duke City touchdowns en route to a 56-49 win against Tucson, who have now lost three straight games.)
• MASS @ IOWA – IOWA +21.5 (Undeniably the surprise result of the week – and the season if we’re being honest – the Barnstormers went wire-for-wire and simply outclassed a Pirates team that looked irredeemably lost. Not only did Iowa cover, they blew the Pirates out 73-43.) $10.00 paid $19.09
• FRI @ TUL – FRI -30.5 (This game came extremely close to being the first loss of the season for Frisco, as a last-second game-winning field goal attempt by Tulsa just missed the mark. The Fighters keep the perfect season dream alive with the 39-37 win, but didn’t even come remotely close to the cover.)
• BAY @ ARI – NAZ +110 (The IFL fanbase declared this the “Game of the Week” and by golly it did not disappoint. A hotly contested affair where either team could have won, the Wranglers got a pivotal stop on defense late in the game, and converted on what would hold up as the game-winning touchdown to avenge their previous loss to the Panthers. 35-34 Wranglers stood as the final score.) $10.00 paid $21.00
• ARI @ VGS – OVER 93.5 (These teams spent the first three quarters trading touchdown for touchdown, with the first defensive stand coming late in the third quarter. The game would end up being another heartbreaking one-point loss for Arizona despite Drew Powell’s return, as Vegas held off the Rattlers to win 55-54, for a total of 109 points.) $10.00 paid $19.09
The “Four successful picks in a week” train continues to chug along for a fourth straight week and featured yet another successful plus-odds moneyline bet thanks to Northern Arizona. I also seem to be getting far better with these over/under projections, as both of those picks were spot on the money this past week (SD/GB and ARI/VGS). A set of $10 bets on each of these would have returned $78.27, translating into a net gain of $8.27 for Week 9. Overall this season, I am 22-of-41 (22-19) with a total result of roughly $49.36 of net gain. Anyone who has followed/tailed my betting in the past four weeks has seen MASSIVE returns, with a record of 16-9 and a net gain of $78.09 since Week 6!
The recommended 3-leg parlay of the week did not convert, with only one successful leg (NAZ Moneyline) out of the three needed (SD Moneyline and SXF Moneyline both lost). Admittedly, this parlay was more of a speculative dart throw than the educated guesses that my previous parlays had been constructed as.
YTD Breakdown of wagers by type:
Over/Under: 6-for-13
Spreads: 8-for-17
Moneyline: 8-for-11
Week 10 will once again feature all 14 teams in the league, with six Saturday showdowns and a standalone Sunday contest scheduled. Will this be the week that I can string together five or more successful picks on the betslip? Read on to find out!
*Odds and lines shown are at time of posting. They will be updated prior to kickoff if they change; however, any net gain/loss calculations will use the original values.
Saturday 5/20: QC (-3.5) @ MASS | O/U 100.5 | Moneyline: QC -145, MASS +125
The pick: MASS +125 Moneyline
We went over this in Week 3, when the Pirates were handicapped as home underdogs against Bay Area, and I’ll echo the same message again since oddsmakers have reached that same verdict for this game. Why are we laying points on the Pirates at home?? Yes, I realize they got squashed by previously winless Iowa last week, but true contending teams are able to put those clunkers in the past and move forward with confidence (look no further than NAZ’s response after getting levelled by Bay Area in Week 6). Hometown bias aside, I firmly believe the team is capable of doing just that. We’re also at the stage in the season when we can safely say that if the Pirates drop this game, they’ll fall too far back to recover and earn a playoff game at home, so at the very least this game should be close to the end. And it’s one that the Pirates are certainly capable of pulling off, especially back in Worcester.
Saturday 5/20: IOWA @ GB (-6.5) | O/U 94.5 | Moneyline: IOWA +210, GB -250
The pick: OVER 94.5
Iowa is coming off an emphatic first win of the season, a masterclass 73-43 rout of a rock solid Pirates team. But now they return to the Resch Center, where in Week 3 their season turned for the worst when starting QB Darius James Peterson suffered a season-ending ACL injury. Meanwhile, Green Bay has a QB injury issue of its own, with Ja’rome Johnson going down in the first quarter of last week’s game versus San Diego. As of Thursday evening, Johnson has been placed on Short-Term IR, ruling him out for this game. Max Meylor is expected to draw the start in his absence after filling in last week. Even so, regardless of who’s at quarterback for either team, both defenses have been among the leakiest in the league, with both teams surrendering over 50 per game, meaning that the path to triple-digit combined points is a probable one.
Saturday 5/20: NAZ @ ARI (-1) | O/U 81.5 | Moneyline: NAZ -105, ARI -115
The pick: NAZ +110 Moneyline
It might be time to hover the hand over the “Panic” button for the Rattler faithful. I don’t think anyone had them below .500 (3-4) seven games into the season. Granted, two of those losses have been one-point defeats, and they were without reigning MVP Drew Powell up until he returned last week from injury. But in the same breath, they also could have (and probably should have) lost at Tulsa, but they got bailed out by a baffling play call. This is the first matchup between the Wranglers and Rattlers since last year’s Western Conference Championship, so it should be fueled with plenty of emotion and physicality, with memories of that game firmly in mind on both sides. I’m going Wranglers moneyline because, well, it’s won each of the last three weeks, so how can I possibly go against it now? Thankfully, I locked this bet in before the line moved on Saturday afternoon. Now the wager is laying 5 percent juice.
Saturday 5/20: FRI (-13.5) @ BAY | O/U 96.5 | No Moneylilne Bets as of initial posting
The pick: BAY +13.5 Spread
When lines opened this afternoon, I was absolutely floored by two observations: the fact that this game doesn’t have moneyline betting, and how heavily Frisco is favored on the road against a top Western Conference contender. That said, there’s a lot to like here backing the Panthers, as they are my 2nd ranked team in the IFL in my individual power ranking entering this week. I’m not even factoring Frisco’s closer-than-comfort win at Tulsa last week too heavily into this; I genuinely think Bay Area has as good a chance as any team right now to hand Frisco its first loss. A team the caliber of Bay Area should not be two-touchdown home dogs, even against the high-and-mighty Fighters. Take the home points.
Saturday 5/20: SXF (-2.5) @ TUC | O/U 81.5 | Moneyline: SXF -135, TUC +115
The pick: SXF -2.5 Spread
This is a matchup that carries a lot of intrigue, especially since the two foes aren’t particularly familiar with one another. The Sugar Skulls are losers of their last three games, and while none of those losses were horrendous blowouts (7 in 2OT, 10, 7), Tucson is clearly having trouble finding those clutch closing plays late in games. And this seems to be the type of rut where the Skulls have been - and could continue to be - their own worst enemy, which makes it difficult to back them right now. I like the Storm to come away with this win, and the minimal 2.5-point spread is one where I’m willing to lay the points.
Saturday 5/20: TUL @ VGS (-11.5) | O/U 89.5 | No Moneyline Bets as of initial posting
The pick: OVER 89.5
The Knight Hawks have played themselves right back into the Western Conference mix, thanks to last week’s 55-54 upset over the Arizona Rattlers. With Da’Quan Neal now at full strength, the Vegas offense re-gains that additional punch to it. That is bad news for a Tulsa defense surrendering more than 50 points per game, not to mention the Oilers have simply not been good on the road (their win at Iowa notwithstanding). The past two games involving Vegas have hit 106 and 109 points, and I originally projected this total to sit in the 95.5 range. Pick the points barrage with confidence!
Sunday 5/21: DUKE @ SD (-3.5) | O/U 85.5 | Moneyline: DUKE +130, SD -150
The pick: OVER 85.5
Here is yet another game where this total is absolutely puzzling to me. For starters, this is the Nate Davis #RevengeGame against his former Gladiators for the first time since the infamous trade a month ago, so how are we not expecting fireworks here? Secondly, Duke City very clearly found something on the offensive side of the ball if they hung 56 on Tucson’s stout defense last week, and nothing about that performance suggested it was a fluke. Just like the Tulsa/Vegas game, I was expecting this total to be way higher than its opening value. Take the over, and enjoy the show!
Recommended 3-leg parlay:
“Lock Pick”: Frisco vs. Bay Area – Panthers +13.5 Spread (-110)
“Confident Pick”: Tulsa vs. Vegas – OVER 89.5 (-110)
“Sunday’s Pick”: Duke City vs. San Diego – OVER 85.5 (-110)
Parlay Odds: +595 ($10.00 would win ~$59.57)
IFL Championship Winner Odds:
Green = Odds Increased from last week
Red = Odds Decreased from last week
Frisco Fighters +160
Quad City Steamwheelers +550
Northern Arizona Wranglers +800
Bay Area Panthers +800
Arizona Rattlers +800
Tucson Sugar Skulls +900
Massachusetts Pirates +950
Sioux Falls Storm +1000
Vegas Knight Hawks +1600
San Diego Strike Force +2000
Green Bay Blizzard +2800
Duke City Gladiators +4500
Iowa Barnstormers +6500
Tulsa Oilers +7000
UPDATED SATURDAY 5/20/23 at 4:50PM ET