Post by alecs on May 24, 2023 8:44:34 GMT -8
Happy Wednesday, IFL Fans!
Welcome to Volume IX of my "Wager Wednesday" bit, in which I examine the current landscape of the upcoming week's games, based on lines and odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. As an advocate of accountability, I will recap my results - whether genius or moronic - from the prior week as well. With that, let's see how my picks from last week turned out:
• QC @ MASS – MASS +125 (I’ll leave it up to you, the readers, on whether you want to call this exploiting my moneyline hot streak to benefit my hometown team! In any event, it was a heck of a response game from Massachusetts, who played perfect offensively and made some strong plays defensively to separate themselves from the Steamwheelers. The Pirates defended the ship, and turned the tide of its season, with a 63-49 win.) $10.00 paid $22.50
• IOWA @ GB – OVER 94.5 (I am a firm believer in the “Trust the numbers” philosophy, and it worked out favorably for me on this bet. Sure, it was somewhat of a betting bailout, as Iowa scored a garbage time touchdown with mere seconds left to put the total over the amount needed in a game that Green Bay won 57-41. The 98 points fell a deuce short of the triple-digit figure I had in mind, but it gets the job done just as well.) $10.00 paid $19.09
• NAZ @ ARI – NAZ +110 (Chalk this one up as another dreadful road showing from the Wranglers. The Rattlers had nothing but merciless vengeance in mind for this game, and right off the bat they delivered that tone. It turned out to be an absolute dismantling, with Arizona leading 39-7 by halftime. Needless to say, they coasted to an easy win, 60-34.)
• FRI @ BAY – BAY +13.5 (I’m still salty that oddsmakers neglected to offer moneyline bets for this game, and we saw exactly why this was far too generous of a spread. Bay Area showed why they should be viewed as a top title contender by taking down the only remaining unbeaten team in the league. The Panthers defeated the Fighters 62-55 in what could turn out to be a preview of August’s Championship Game.) $10.00 paid $19.09
• SXF @ TUC – SXF -2.5 (The Sugar Skulls played like a team on a mission in Saturday’s game, gaining the decisive upper hand against a solid Sioux Falls team and never looking back. They led by multiple scores throughout the game, as Ramone Atkins engineered the Tucson offense with the level of precision that we saw earlier in the season. The 56-42 victory over the Storm put an end to Tucson’s three-game skid.)
• TUL @ VGS – OVER 89.5 (This was another bet that was looking fine at halftime, with 55 first half points to get the game started. Unfortunately, we saw just 23 points the rest of the way as both teams suddenly struggled offensively, and Vegas was content to milk the clock down as the game wore on. The Knight Hawks climbed back to an even 4-4 record with the 46-32 win against the Tulsa Oilers. Naturally, this was the only game of the week that failed to reach its expected point total.)
• DUKE @ SD – OVER 85.5 (The game started out somewhat slow, with Duke City going empty on their first two possessions early in the game. But the scoring from both teams picked up significantly late in the third quarter, and this bet hit just seconds into the fourth quarter. Nate Davis tossed six touchdowns in the #RevengeGame to lead San Diego to the 57-44 victory over his former Gladiators. The 101 total points smashed the threshold in a game that I would have played the over as high as 95.5.) $10.00 paid $19.09
I didn’t quite get to the five-win mark that I had my heart set out for, but it still qualifies as a fifth consecutive winning week! I was successful with four out of my seven wagers, highlighted by the recurring weekly plus-odds moneyline hit with the Pirates’ win over Quad City at +125! A set of $10 bets on each of these would have returned $79.77, translating into a net gain of $9.77 for Week 10. Overall this season, I am 26-of-48 (26-22) with a total result of roughly $59.14 of net gain. Anyone who has followed/tailed my betting in the past five weeks has seen MASSIVE returns, with a record of 20-12 and a net gain of $87.86 since Week 6!
The recommended 3-leg parlay of the week was unsuccessful, with the bad leg being the Tulsa/Vegas Over 89.5 pick (the teams combined for just 78). That spoiled the other two picks - Bay Area Spread and Duke City/San Diego Over 85.5 – which were winners. A bit of an annoyance when the only game of the week out of the seven that goes under the points kills the parlay.
YTD Breakdown of wagers by type:
Over/Under: 8-for-16
Spreads: 9-for-19
Moneyline: 9-for-13
We are graced with another full seven-game slate for Week 11, as all 14 teams will embark on the second half of the season. We’ve got a great streak of winning weeks going; can we push it to six and perhaps add 5 or more wins to our season total? Read on to find out!
*Odds and lines shown are at time of posting. They will be updated prior to kickoff if they change; however, any net gain/loss calculations will use the original values.
Friday 5/26: SXF (-12.5) @ IOWA | O/U 94.5 | No Moneyline Bets as of initial posting
The pick: OVER 94.5
The Storm will wrap up a three-game road trip on Friday night, hoping to avoid a winless 0-3 result when they play the Iowa Barnstormers. Once again, I’m looking at Iowa’s defense as a vulnerability, and considering they’ve let up more than 50 points in six of their eight games thus far, it’s reasonable to assert that a desperate Sioux Falls team makes that seven of nine. With Zach Reader finding a nice rhythm in his last two games, I also see Iowa playing respectably well enough to keep them in the running for most of this game, likely chasing points in a bid for a season-salvaging upset. Mark this as another game with triple-digit potential.
Friday 5/26: GB @ QC (-9.5) | O/U 102.5 | No Moneyline Bets as of initial posting
The pick: GB +9.5 Spread
This will be an important Eastern Conference game for both these teams (and the first of three meetings this season), as Green Bay looks to potentially leapfrog Sioux Falls in the standings if they can upset the Steamwheelers in Moline. The Blizzard offense has continued its surprisingly potent run, logging at least 47 points in each of their last five games, even with Rookie of the Year candidate Ja’rome Johnson injured for the last two weeks. If they can keep that streak going on Friday, it’s going to put a lot of pressure on Quad City to score enough points just to make this cover. Curiously, this game will start a stretch of six road games out of seven to close the season for Green Bay, so the sense of urgency absolutely has to be there for them early in this run.
Saturday 5/27: NAZ (-6.5) @ DUKE | O/U 79.5 | Moneyline: NAZ -215, DUKE +185
The pick: UNDER 79.5
Entering this game, the Wranglers are 5-3, which is tied for first in the West. The Gladiators are 3-5, which is tied for last. That’s only a two-game gap between first and last in this conference, and an upset bid could be an attractive wager for anyone who projects a second straight road disaster for Northern Arizona. I don’t see that happening though, and this is a game where the Wranglers defense should get back on track and limit the resurgent Charles McCullum to more modest numbers. Four of the Wranglers’ five wins this season have fallen under this total, and that grueling dogfight type of game is their most likely path to victory. I expect a NAZ win in which they hold Duke City under 30 points, especially with 2022 IFL Championship MVP Ja’Quan Artis re-signed this week and back on the Wranglers D-Line.
Saturday 5/27: SD @ FRI (-16.5) | O/U 97.5 | No Moneyline Bets as of initial posting
The pick: SD +16.5 Spread
An intriguing storyline to this game that many fans might overlook at first: For Nate Davis, this will actually be his second crack at playing against the Frisco Fighters this season (he played them in a 60-55 loss in Week 3 as the Gladiators starting QB). That familiarity, coupled with the current spread, makes this a very reasonable roll of the dice on the away underdog cover. Frisco will almost certainly play with an added gear following their first loss of the season last week, which makes this as deftly contrarian of a play as can be. But if there’s any QB in the league that has repeatedly demonstrated a capability to compete with the Fighters, it’s Davis. As long as he’s on his A-game, the Strike Force can contend.
Saturday 5/27: MASS (-11.5) @ TUL | O/U 94.5 | No Moneyline Bets as of initial posting
The pick: TUL +11.5 Spread
My pattern of betting for or against the Pirates on any given week makes about as much sense as the day-to-day weather in the New England area. Radiant sunshine one day, then dampening downpour the next, without any rhyme or reason. But take a look at the body of work for both teams while factoring in home and road splits. At BOK Center, Tulsa has managed to take both Frisco and Arizona, two title favorites, to the brink, losing narrowly in heartbreaking fashion on both occasions. Meanwhile, outside of the Bay State, the Pirates are 1-3, including a brutal 30-point beatdown at the hands of Iowa. There’s a wealth of recent history here to suggest the Oilers can secure their first home win in franchise history. This week could very well be it.
Saturday 5/27: VGS @ ARI (-6.5) | O/U 103.5 | Moneyline: VGS +190, ARI -225
The pick: OVER 103.5
These conference rivals met just 14 days ago, and Saturday’s rematch will go down in the Snake Pit. I’m not sure about the plausibility of a second straight upset for Vegas, especially on the road, but the Rattlers defense will have to do a far better job of containing Da’Quan Neal in order to exact their revenge. With both starting quarterbacks fully healthy now, the weekly floor for both offenses sits at around 45 points per game, and neither defense had much of an answer at the Dollar Loan Center two weeks ago. I’m expecting another shootout that will likely catch the total we got last time around (109 in the 55-54 Vegas win). Play the points and watch two elite IFL quarterbacks put on another brilliant showcase!
Saturday 5/27: BAY (-3.5) @ TUC | O/U 86.5 | Moneyline: BAY -140, TUC +120
The pick: TUC +120 Moneyline
Round Two of the season series between Bay Area and Tucson carries with it some fairly high stakes. Tucson won the first meeting in San Jose in Week 5, and if they can repeat that result in the home fixture, they could end Week 11 as the standalone first place team in the West with a little help (if NAZ were to be upset by Duke City). One shaky stat for the Panthers is their 1-2 road record, and that lone win came on a last-second make-or-break touchdown in San Diego. They will need to improve upon their performance in venues not named SAP Center to remain a top seed, as five of their final seven games are outside The Bay. Ride the Skulls as plus-odds home underdogs to grab a second straight win!
Recommended 3-leg parlay:
“Friday’s Pick”: Sioux Falls vs. Iowa – OVER 94.5 (-110)
“Saturday Lock Pick”: Vegas vs. Arizona – Rattlers Moneyline (-225)
“Saturday Value Pick”: Massachusetts vs. Tulsa – Oilers +11.5 Spread (-110)
Parlay Odds: +426 ($10.00 would win ~$42.64)
IFL Championship Winner Odds:
Green = Odds Increased from last week
Red = Odds Decreased from last week
Frisco Fighters +200
Bay Area Panthers +600
Quad City Steamwheelers +650
Massachusetts Pirates +700
Arizona Rattlers +700
Tucson Sugar Skulls +850
Northern Arizona Wranglers +900
Sioux Falls Storm +1200
Vegas Knight Hawks +1500
San Diego Strike Force +2000
Green Bay Blizzard +2500
Duke City Gladiators +5000
Iowa Barnstormers +7500
Tulsa Oilers +7500
Welcome to Volume IX of my "Wager Wednesday" bit, in which I examine the current landscape of the upcoming week's games, based on lines and odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. As an advocate of accountability, I will recap my results - whether genius or moronic - from the prior week as well. With that, let's see how my picks from last week turned out:
• QC @ MASS – MASS +125 (I’ll leave it up to you, the readers, on whether you want to call this exploiting my moneyline hot streak to benefit my hometown team! In any event, it was a heck of a response game from Massachusetts, who played perfect offensively and made some strong plays defensively to separate themselves from the Steamwheelers. The Pirates defended the ship, and turned the tide of its season, with a 63-49 win.) $10.00 paid $22.50
• IOWA @ GB – OVER 94.5 (I am a firm believer in the “Trust the numbers” philosophy, and it worked out favorably for me on this bet. Sure, it was somewhat of a betting bailout, as Iowa scored a garbage time touchdown with mere seconds left to put the total over the amount needed in a game that Green Bay won 57-41. The 98 points fell a deuce short of the triple-digit figure I had in mind, but it gets the job done just as well.) $10.00 paid $19.09
• NAZ @ ARI – NAZ +110 (Chalk this one up as another dreadful road showing from the Wranglers. The Rattlers had nothing but merciless vengeance in mind for this game, and right off the bat they delivered that tone. It turned out to be an absolute dismantling, with Arizona leading 39-7 by halftime. Needless to say, they coasted to an easy win, 60-34.)
• FRI @ BAY – BAY +13.5 (I’m still salty that oddsmakers neglected to offer moneyline bets for this game, and we saw exactly why this was far too generous of a spread. Bay Area showed why they should be viewed as a top title contender by taking down the only remaining unbeaten team in the league. The Panthers defeated the Fighters 62-55 in what could turn out to be a preview of August’s Championship Game.) $10.00 paid $19.09
• SXF @ TUC – SXF -2.5 (The Sugar Skulls played like a team on a mission in Saturday’s game, gaining the decisive upper hand against a solid Sioux Falls team and never looking back. They led by multiple scores throughout the game, as Ramone Atkins engineered the Tucson offense with the level of precision that we saw earlier in the season. The 56-42 victory over the Storm put an end to Tucson’s three-game skid.)
• TUL @ VGS – OVER 89.5 (This was another bet that was looking fine at halftime, with 55 first half points to get the game started. Unfortunately, we saw just 23 points the rest of the way as both teams suddenly struggled offensively, and Vegas was content to milk the clock down as the game wore on. The Knight Hawks climbed back to an even 4-4 record with the 46-32 win against the Tulsa Oilers. Naturally, this was the only game of the week that failed to reach its expected point total.)
• DUKE @ SD – OVER 85.5 (The game started out somewhat slow, with Duke City going empty on their first two possessions early in the game. But the scoring from both teams picked up significantly late in the third quarter, and this bet hit just seconds into the fourth quarter. Nate Davis tossed six touchdowns in the #RevengeGame to lead San Diego to the 57-44 victory over his former Gladiators. The 101 total points smashed the threshold in a game that I would have played the over as high as 95.5.) $10.00 paid $19.09
I didn’t quite get to the five-win mark that I had my heart set out for, but it still qualifies as a fifth consecutive winning week! I was successful with four out of my seven wagers, highlighted by the recurring weekly plus-odds moneyline hit with the Pirates’ win over Quad City at +125! A set of $10 bets on each of these would have returned $79.77, translating into a net gain of $9.77 for Week 10. Overall this season, I am 26-of-48 (26-22) with a total result of roughly $59.14 of net gain. Anyone who has followed/tailed my betting in the past five weeks has seen MASSIVE returns, with a record of 20-12 and a net gain of $87.86 since Week 6!
The recommended 3-leg parlay of the week was unsuccessful, with the bad leg being the Tulsa/Vegas Over 89.5 pick (the teams combined for just 78). That spoiled the other two picks - Bay Area Spread and Duke City/San Diego Over 85.5 – which were winners. A bit of an annoyance when the only game of the week out of the seven that goes under the points kills the parlay.
YTD Breakdown of wagers by type:
Over/Under: 8-for-16
Spreads: 9-for-19
Moneyline: 9-for-13
We are graced with another full seven-game slate for Week 11, as all 14 teams will embark on the second half of the season. We’ve got a great streak of winning weeks going; can we push it to six and perhaps add 5 or more wins to our season total? Read on to find out!
*Odds and lines shown are at time of posting. They will be updated prior to kickoff if they change; however, any net gain/loss calculations will use the original values.
Friday 5/26: SXF (-12.5) @ IOWA | O/U 94.5 | No Moneyline Bets as of initial posting
The pick: OVER 94.5
The Storm will wrap up a three-game road trip on Friday night, hoping to avoid a winless 0-3 result when they play the Iowa Barnstormers. Once again, I’m looking at Iowa’s defense as a vulnerability, and considering they’ve let up more than 50 points in six of their eight games thus far, it’s reasonable to assert that a desperate Sioux Falls team makes that seven of nine. With Zach Reader finding a nice rhythm in his last two games, I also see Iowa playing respectably well enough to keep them in the running for most of this game, likely chasing points in a bid for a season-salvaging upset. Mark this as another game with triple-digit potential.
Friday 5/26: GB @ QC (-9.5) | O/U 102.5 | No Moneyline Bets as of initial posting
The pick: GB +9.5 Spread
This will be an important Eastern Conference game for both these teams (and the first of three meetings this season), as Green Bay looks to potentially leapfrog Sioux Falls in the standings if they can upset the Steamwheelers in Moline. The Blizzard offense has continued its surprisingly potent run, logging at least 47 points in each of their last five games, even with Rookie of the Year candidate Ja’rome Johnson injured for the last two weeks. If they can keep that streak going on Friday, it’s going to put a lot of pressure on Quad City to score enough points just to make this cover. Curiously, this game will start a stretch of six road games out of seven to close the season for Green Bay, so the sense of urgency absolutely has to be there for them early in this run.
Saturday 5/27: NAZ (-6.5) @ DUKE | O/U 79.5 | Moneyline: NAZ -215, DUKE +185
The pick: UNDER 79.5
Entering this game, the Wranglers are 5-3, which is tied for first in the West. The Gladiators are 3-5, which is tied for last. That’s only a two-game gap between first and last in this conference, and an upset bid could be an attractive wager for anyone who projects a second straight road disaster for Northern Arizona. I don’t see that happening though, and this is a game where the Wranglers defense should get back on track and limit the resurgent Charles McCullum to more modest numbers. Four of the Wranglers’ five wins this season have fallen under this total, and that grueling dogfight type of game is their most likely path to victory. I expect a NAZ win in which they hold Duke City under 30 points, especially with 2022 IFL Championship MVP Ja’Quan Artis re-signed this week and back on the Wranglers D-Line.
Saturday 5/27: SD @ FRI (-16.5) | O/U 97.5 | No Moneyline Bets as of initial posting
The pick: SD +16.5 Spread
An intriguing storyline to this game that many fans might overlook at first: For Nate Davis, this will actually be his second crack at playing against the Frisco Fighters this season (he played them in a 60-55 loss in Week 3 as the Gladiators starting QB). That familiarity, coupled with the current spread, makes this a very reasonable roll of the dice on the away underdog cover. Frisco will almost certainly play with an added gear following their first loss of the season last week, which makes this as deftly contrarian of a play as can be. But if there’s any QB in the league that has repeatedly demonstrated a capability to compete with the Fighters, it’s Davis. As long as he’s on his A-game, the Strike Force can contend.
Saturday 5/27: MASS (-11.5) @ TUL | O/U 94.5 | No Moneyline Bets as of initial posting
The pick: TUL +11.5 Spread
My pattern of betting for or against the Pirates on any given week makes about as much sense as the day-to-day weather in the New England area. Radiant sunshine one day, then dampening downpour the next, without any rhyme or reason. But take a look at the body of work for both teams while factoring in home and road splits. At BOK Center, Tulsa has managed to take both Frisco and Arizona, two title favorites, to the brink, losing narrowly in heartbreaking fashion on both occasions. Meanwhile, outside of the Bay State, the Pirates are 1-3, including a brutal 30-point beatdown at the hands of Iowa. There’s a wealth of recent history here to suggest the Oilers can secure their first home win in franchise history. This week could very well be it.
Saturday 5/27: VGS @ ARI (-6.5) | O/U 103.5 | Moneyline: VGS +190, ARI -225
The pick: OVER 103.5
These conference rivals met just 14 days ago, and Saturday’s rematch will go down in the Snake Pit. I’m not sure about the plausibility of a second straight upset for Vegas, especially on the road, but the Rattlers defense will have to do a far better job of containing Da’Quan Neal in order to exact their revenge. With both starting quarterbacks fully healthy now, the weekly floor for both offenses sits at around 45 points per game, and neither defense had much of an answer at the Dollar Loan Center two weeks ago. I’m expecting another shootout that will likely catch the total we got last time around (109 in the 55-54 Vegas win). Play the points and watch two elite IFL quarterbacks put on another brilliant showcase!
Saturday 5/27: BAY (-3.5) @ TUC | O/U 86.5 | Moneyline: BAY -140, TUC +120
The pick: TUC +120 Moneyline
Round Two of the season series between Bay Area and Tucson carries with it some fairly high stakes. Tucson won the first meeting in San Jose in Week 5, and if they can repeat that result in the home fixture, they could end Week 11 as the standalone first place team in the West with a little help (if NAZ were to be upset by Duke City). One shaky stat for the Panthers is their 1-2 road record, and that lone win came on a last-second make-or-break touchdown in San Diego. They will need to improve upon their performance in venues not named SAP Center to remain a top seed, as five of their final seven games are outside The Bay. Ride the Skulls as plus-odds home underdogs to grab a second straight win!
Recommended 3-leg parlay:
“Friday’s Pick”: Sioux Falls vs. Iowa – OVER 94.5 (-110)
“Saturday Lock Pick”: Vegas vs. Arizona – Rattlers Moneyline (-225)
“Saturday Value Pick”: Massachusetts vs. Tulsa – Oilers +11.5 Spread (-110)
Parlay Odds: +426 ($10.00 would win ~$42.64)
IFL Championship Winner Odds:
Green = Odds Increased from last week
Red = Odds Decreased from last week
Frisco Fighters +200
Bay Area Panthers +600
Quad City Steamwheelers +650
Massachusetts Pirates +700
Arizona Rattlers +700
Tucson Sugar Skulls +850
Northern Arizona Wranglers +900
Sioux Falls Storm +1200
Vegas Knight Hawks +1500
San Diego Strike Force +2000
Green Bay Blizzard +2500
Duke City Gladiators +5000
Iowa Barnstormers +7500
Tulsa Oilers +7500