Post by alecs on May 31, 2023 8:28:23 GMT -8
Happy Wednesday, IFL Fans!
Welcome to Volume X of my "Wager Wednesday" bit, in which I examine the current landscape of the upcoming week's games, based on lines and odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. As an advocate of accountability, I will recap my results - whether genius or moronic - from the prior week as well. With that, let's see how my picks from last week turned out:
• SXF @ IOWA – OVER 94.5 (The Barnstormers did literally everything they could to force a loss on this bet. The offense bottomed out for them, to the point where they trailed 42-6 at halftime. Fortunately for me, we got a vintage Sioux Falls 77-point outburst circa 2015, and Iowa did just enough to make this a 77-26 ballgame. That’s 103 combined points, and one extra betting victory banked!) $10.00 paid $19.09
• GB @ QC – GB +9.5 (This game followed in the footsteps of “Classic” Arena Football, with both teams constantly trading touchdown for touchdown, and only the occasional 4th-down stop sprinkled in every now and then. Quad City see-sawed between a one- and two-possession lead, and the wager came down to a late touchdown by Green Bay to cut the deficit to seven. Quad City got a first down, rather than a touchdown, on their final drive to end the game as 63-56 winners. The seven-point margin of victory was good enough for the GB cover.) $10.00 paid $19.09
• NAZ @ DUKE – UNDER 79.5 (As it turns out, Duke City moneyline ended up being the correct choice here, and it was my secondary pick in my analysis at the beginning of the week. While not a complete meltdown by the Wranglers, they could not make enough plays to get over the hump, and Duke City’s offense found some solid success against the league’s best scoring defense. The Gladiators won 47-40, for an 87-point total.)
• SD @ FRI – SD +16.5 (Sometimes in sports betting, the profitable path is the one less traveled. It’s tough to say exactly how many people backed the Strike Force on the spread, but kudos to you if you joined me in that group! San Diego surprised the league when they blitzed ahead to a 50-42 halftime lead in Frisco. But the Fighters played a brilliant second half that saw them outscore the Strike Force 28-6 the rest of the way, en route to the 70-56 win. But the 14-point margin was within San Diego’s cover range.) $10.00 paid $19.09
• MASS @ TUL – TUL +11.5 (I would have gone as far as Tulsa moneyline if it was an option, but I took the home cover instead. The Oilers played a great game against a tough opponent in Massachusetts, and even had a few opportunities to distance themselves in the game. Sadly for Tulsa, they came up just short in a 54-48 loss, but once again covered in a close game against another championship hopeful.) $10.00 paid $19.09
• VGS @ ARI – OVER 103.5 (The Rattlers turned in another brilliant outing in the Snake Pit, going over 60 points for a second straight game while also doing a far better job covering the Vegas quarterbacks, Da’Quan Neal and Joey Mancuso, particularly in the second half. That defensive intensity from Arizona, though, ultimately sealed the outcome of this bet, which in the end did not favor me. Arizona’s 63-39 victory combined for 102 points. I needed just two more points for the win.)
• BAY @ TUC – TUC +120 (Another fiercely contested game between two Western playoff contenders came right down to the very end to determine the winner. The deciding play was a two-point conversion attempt by Tucson to tie the game, which Bay Area denied. The Panthers re-claimed first place in the West, holding on to the 44-42 victory. My condolences to the over bettors for this one; the 86.5 O/U total left that group with the dreaded “by-the-hook” bad beat.)
In a week that saw two of my bets defeated by just two points, and another two saved by garbage time touchdowns for the infamous “backdoor cover”, Week 11 wound up as another winning week, the sixth such successful outing in a row! Again, the Indoor Football gods denied me of the 5+ win week, but four wins out of seven is still as respectable as ever, even without the usual moneyline hit this time around. A set of $10 bets on each of these would have returned $76.36, translating into a net gain of $6.36 for Week 11. Overall this season, I am 30-of-55 (30-25) with a total result of roughly $65.50 of net gain. Anyone who has followed/tailed my betting in the past six weeks has seen MASSIVE returns, with a record of 24-15 and a net gain of $94.23 since Week 6!
On another note… DING – DING – DING !!! The Recommended Three-Leg Parlay of the Week qualified as a successful trifecta! With Arizona winning, Tulsa covering at 11.5 points, and Sioux Falls/Iowa totaling over 94.5 points, we put together a betslip with a solid +426 payout! $10.00 would have returned $52.64 in total! Per usual, this result is not factored in with my single-game betting results, but still worthwhile to note!
YTD Breakdown of wagers by type:
Over/Under: 9-for-19
Spreads: 12-for-22
Moneyline: 9-for-14
For Week 12, Quad City and Sioux Falls will be the teams on bye, leaving us 12 teams and six matchups to work with. That means it will have to be a true winning week for me to continue the hot streak of 4+ win outings. Can I make that happen, and possibly set that ever-elusive single-week wins high mark in the process? Read on to find out!
*Odds and lines shown are at time of posting. They will be updated prior to kickoff if they change; however, any net gain/loss calculations will use the original values.
Saturday 6/3: TUC @ VGS (-3) | O/U 85.5 | Moneyline: TUC +125, VGS -145
The pick: TUC +125 Moneyline
So far this season, these have been the two most inconsistent teams in the Western Conference, so let’s try to forecast what happens when we put both of them on the same field, shall we? What we do know is that oddsmakers like Vegas as the home team in this one. But I prefer Tucson as the team with the higher weekly upside, and my model sees the Sugar Skulls taking the win over the Knight Hawks in about 65% of simulations, which implies that it’s Tucson that should really be the favorites here. Consequently, we’re going to try the Skulls at plus-odds again this week despite narrowly losing out by two points last week. Note that this is the first game listed of the week, with the starting time bumped up to 3:05PM ET from its originally scheduled 10:05PM ET kickoff. Important to note if you’re planning on constructing a parlay.
Saturday 6/3: FRI (-7.5) @ MASS | O/U 108.5 | Moneyline: FRI -240, MASS +200
The pick: MASS +7.5 Spread
Here’s my obligatory weird fact of the week: For as solid as the Pirates have been since entering the IFL, they actually have not built a three-game winning streak since their splendid 14-game run spanning through 2021 and the first few games of 2022. It doesn’t get much tougher than a matchup against the 8-1 Fighters to finally break that drought. In the DCU Center, this is totally a winnable game for the Pirates, but it’s going to take their best defensive effort of the season to pull it off, which we did not see in the first meeting back in Frisco (56-39 loss for Mass). That said, I will continue to apply my logic of “Don’t lay points on the Pirates at home” and pick the spread with confidence.
Saturday 6/3: GB (-10.5) @ IOWA | O/U 92.5 | No Moneyline Bets as of initial posting
The pick: OVER 92.5
If you’ve been reading my “Wager Wednesday” posts for a few weeks now, you’re probably going to pick up some common themes with these selections. Specifically, if the game in question involves the Iowa Barnstormers, bet the over, especially if it’s set below triple-digits. Like we saw last week, we do have to worry just a bit about the boom-or-bust nature of Iowa’s offense. But that Blizzard offense – contrary to their team name – is on absolute fire right now. And this game should serve as the last-gasp for any playoff hopes that Iowa still has to prevent 2023 from officially becoming a lost season. This total should be closer to 96.5, take advantage of the oddsmakers’ conservative line.
Saturday 6/3: DUKE @ BAY (-12.5) | O/U 95.5 | No Moneyline Bets as of initial posting
The pick: BAY -12.5 Spread
At this point, we can’t call them “Fluke City” any longer. If you’ve scored at least 44 points in each of your last three games, you’ve proven that you’re well past that stage. Charles McCullum has given new life to a Gladiators team that has won two of three and will embark on a trip to San Jose to face the Western Conference leading Panthers. This figures to be a bad matchup for Duke City, though, especially on the road. It’s tough to call this a “regression to the mean” type of game for the Gladiators offense, but Bay Area should be able to string together at least a few defensive stops and/or takeaways. And with their offense looking unbeatable when firing on all cylinders, I like a Panthers cover here despite laying double-digit points.
Saturday 6/3: ARI (-5.5) @ NAZ | O/U 87.5 | Moneyline: ARI -190, NAZ +160
The pick: NAZ +160 Moneyline
Man, it feels unnatural to pick against Arizona here, as they are back in top shape since Drew Powell’s return in Week 9. The Rattlers have topped 60 points in each of the last two weeks in blowout victories, one of which was against this same Wranglers squad two weeks ago. Ultimately, the change in venue for this game, coupled with the value of the moneyline, are my deciding factors here. Despite the Wranglers losing their last two and surrendering a total of 107 points in those losses, they are still the league’s leading scoring defense at 36.7 points per game, and they have another level when playing at the Findlay Toyota Center. Even if they were to give up something in the 42-ish range, they would still have a solid chance for a strong win if they make the needed plays with the ball in their possession. I’m all about underlying value, and this pick embodies that at its current +160 payout potential.
Sunday 6/4: TUL @ SD (-8.5) | O/U 91.5 | Moneyline: TUL +210, SD -250
The pick: SD -8.5 Spread
The Oilers have not been able to carry their quality of play into road games thus far in their inaugural season, and they now have the daunting task of stopping Nate Davis and the Strike Force, who last Saturday put a legitimate scare into Frisco. Aside from their lone win over the Barnstormers in Iowa, Tulsa’s average margin of defeat in road games is 18.5 points, compared to just 5.0 points in their last three home games. Entering the week at 3-6, San Diego desperately needs a win to keep pace in the Western Conference playoff race, and this matchup should serve as a great starting point for a late push into contention. I’ll eat the point spread and trust that the better team takes care of business at Pechanga Arena.
Recommended 3-leg parlay:
“Saturday Afternoon Pick” : Tucson vs. Vegas – Sugar Skulls Moneyline (+125)
“Saturday’s Over Pick” : Green Bay vs. Iowa – OVER 92.5 (-110)
“Saturday’s Under Pick” : Duke City vs. Bay Area – UNDER 95.5 (-110)
Parlay Odds: +720 ($10.00 would win $72.00)
IFL Championship Winner Odds:
Green = Odds Increased from last week
Red = Odds Decreased from last week
Frisco Fighters +200
Bay Area Panthers +550
Quad City Steamwheelers +650
Massachusetts Pirates +700
Arizona Rattlers +700
Northern Arizona Wranglers +950
Tucson Sugar Skulls +1100
Sioux Falls Storm +1100
Vegas Knight Hawks +1700
San Diego Strike Force +2500
Green Bay Blizzard +2500
Duke City Gladiators +5000
Iowa Barnstormers +8000
Tulsa Oilers +8000
Welcome to Volume X of my "Wager Wednesday" bit, in which I examine the current landscape of the upcoming week's games, based on lines and odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. As an advocate of accountability, I will recap my results - whether genius or moronic - from the prior week as well. With that, let's see how my picks from last week turned out:
• SXF @ IOWA – OVER 94.5 (The Barnstormers did literally everything they could to force a loss on this bet. The offense bottomed out for them, to the point where they trailed 42-6 at halftime. Fortunately for me, we got a vintage Sioux Falls 77-point outburst circa 2015, and Iowa did just enough to make this a 77-26 ballgame. That’s 103 combined points, and one extra betting victory banked!) $10.00 paid $19.09
• GB @ QC – GB +9.5 (This game followed in the footsteps of “Classic” Arena Football, with both teams constantly trading touchdown for touchdown, and only the occasional 4th-down stop sprinkled in every now and then. Quad City see-sawed between a one- and two-possession lead, and the wager came down to a late touchdown by Green Bay to cut the deficit to seven. Quad City got a first down, rather than a touchdown, on their final drive to end the game as 63-56 winners. The seven-point margin of victory was good enough for the GB cover.) $10.00 paid $19.09
• NAZ @ DUKE – UNDER 79.5 (As it turns out, Duke City moneyline ended up being the correct choice here, and it was my secondary pick in my analysis at the beginning of the week. While not a complete meltdown by the Wranglers, they could not make enough plays to get over the hump, and Duke City’s offense found some solid success against the league’s best scoring defense. The Gladiators won 47-40, for an 87-point total.)
• SD @ FRI – SD +16.5 (Sometimes in sports betting, the profitable path is the one less traveled. It’s tough to say exactly how many people backed the Strike Force on the spread, but kudos to you if you joined me in that group! San Diego surprised the league when they blitzed ahead to a 50-42 halftime lead in Frisco. But the Fighters played a brilliant second half that saw them outscore the Strike Force 28-6 the rest of the way, en route to the 70-56 win. But the 14-point margin was within San Diego’s cover range.) $10.00 paid $19.09
• MASS @ TUL – TUL +11.5 (I would have gone as far as Tulsa moneyline if it was an option, but I took the home cover instead. The Oilers played a great game against a tough opponent in Massachusetts, and even had a few opportunities to distance themselves in the game. Sadly for Tulsa, they came up just short in a 54-48 loss, but once again covered in a close game against another championship hopeful.) $10.00 paid $19.09
• VGS @ ARI – OVER 103.5 (The Rattlers turned in another brilliant outing in the Snake Pit, going over 60 points for a second straight game while also doing a far better job covering the Vegas quarterbacks, Da’Quan Neal and Joey Mancuso, particularly in the second half. That defensive intensity from Arizona, though, ultimately sealed the outcome of this bet, which in the end did not favor me. Arizona’s 63-39 victory combined for 102 points. I needed just two more points for the win.)
• BAY @ TUC – TUC +120 (Another fiercely contested game between two Western playoff contenders came right down to the very end to determine the winner. The deciding play was a two-point conversion attempt by Tucson to tie the game, which Bay Area denied. The Panthers re-claimed first place in the West, holding on to the 44-42 victory. My condolences to the over bettors for this one; the 86.5 O/U total left that group with the dreaded “by-the-hook” bad beat.)
In a week that saw two of my bets defeated by just two points, and another two saved by garbage time touchdowns for the infamous “backdoor cover”, Week 11 wound up as another winning week, the sixth such successful outing in a row! Again, the Indoor Football gods denied me of the 5+ win week, but four wins out of seven is still as respectable as ever, even without the usual moneyline hit this time around. A set of $10 bets on each of these would have returned $76.36, translating into a net gain of $6.36 for Week 11. Overall this season, I am 30-of-55 (30-25) with a total result of roughly $65.50 of net gain. Anyone who has followed/tailed my betting in the past six weeks has seen MASSIVE returns, with a record of 24-15 and a net gain of $94.23 since Week 6!
On another note… DING – DING – DING !!! The Recommended Three-Leg Parlay of the Week qualified as a successful trifecta! With Arizona winning, Tulsa covering at 11.5 points, and Sioux Falls/Iowa totaling over 94.5 points, we put together a betslip with a solid +426 payout! $10.00 would have returned $52.64 in total! Per usual, this result is not factored in with my single-game betting results, but still worthwhile to note!
YTD Breakdown of wagers by type:
Over/Under: 9-for-19
Spreads: 12-for-22
Moneyline: 9-for-14
For Week 12, Quad City and Sioux Falls will be the teams on bye, leaving us 12 teams and six matchups to work with. That means it will have to be a true winning week for me to continue the hot streak of 4+ win outings. Can I make that happen, and possibly set that ever-elusive single-week wins high mark in the process? Read on to find out!
*Odds and lines shown are at time of posting. They will be updated prior to kickoff if they change; however, any net gain/loss calculations will use the original values.
Saturday 6/3: TUC @ VGS (-3) | O/U 85.5 | Moneyline: TUC +125, VGS -145
The pick: TUC +125 Moneyline
So far this season, these have been the two most inconsistent teams in the Western Conference, so let’s try to forecast what happens when we put both of them on the same field, shall we? What we do know is that oddsmakers like Vegas as the home team in this one. But I prefer Tucson as the team with the higher weekly upside, and my model sees the Sugar Skulls taking the win over the Knight Hawks in about 65% of simulations, which implies that it’s Tucson that should really be the favorites here. Consequently, we’re going to try the Skulls at plus-odds again this week despite narrowly losing out by two points last week. Note that this is the first game listed of the week, with the starting time bumped up to 3:05PM ET from its originally scheduled 10:05PM ET kickoff. Important to note if you’re planning on constructing a parlay.
Saturday 6/3: FRI (-7.5) @ MASS | O/U 108.5 | Moneyline: FRI -240, MASS +200
The pick: MASS +7.5 Spread
Here’s my obligatory weird fact of the week: For as solid as the Pirates have been since entering the IFL, they actually have not built a three-game winning streak since their splendid 14-game run spanning through 2021 and the first few games of 2022. It doesn’t get much tougher than a matchup against the 8-1 Fighters to finally break that drought. In the DCU Center, this is totally a winnable game for the Pirates, but it’s going to take their best defensive effort of the season to pull it off, which we did not see in the first meeting back in Frisco (56-39 loss for Mass). That said, I will continue to apply my logic of “Don’t lay points on the Pirates at home” and pick the spread with confidence.
Saturday 6/3: GB (-10.5) @ IOWA | O/U 92.5 | No Moneyline Bets as of initial posting
The pick: OVER 92.5
If you’ve been reading my “Wager Wednesday” posts for a few weeks now, you’re probably going to pick up some common themes with these selections. Specifically, if the game in question involves the Iowa Barnstormers, bet the over, especially if it’s set below triple-digits. Like we saw last week, we do have to worry just a bit about the boom-or-bust nature of Iowa’s offense. But that Blizzard offense – contrary to their team name – is on absolute fire right now. And this game should serve as the last-gasp for any playoff hopes that Iowa still has to prevent 2023 from officially becoming a lost season. This total should be closer to 96.5, take advantage of the oddsmakers’ conservative line.
Saturday 6/3: DUKE @ BAY (-12.5) | O/U 95.5 | No Moneyline Bets as of initial posting
The pick: BAY -12.5 Spread
At this point, we can’t call them “Fluke City” any longer. If you’ve scored at least 44 points in each of your last three games, you’ve proven that you’re well past that stage. Charles McCullum has given new life to a Gladiators team that has won two of three and will embark on a trip to San Jose to face the Western Conference leading Panthers. This figures to be a bad matchup for Duke City, though, especially on the road. It’s tough to call this a “regression to the mean” type of game for the Gladiators offense, but Bay Area should be able to string together at least a few defensive stops and/or takeaways. And with their offense looking unbeatable when firing on all cylinders, I like a Panthers cover here despite laying double-digit points.
Saturday 6/3: ARI (-5.5) @ NAZ | O/U 87.5 | Moneyline: ARI -190, NAZ +160
The pick: NAZ +160 Moneyline
Man, it feels unnatural to pick against Arizona here, as they are back in top shape since Drew Powell’s return in Week 9. The Rattlers have topped 60 points in each of the last two weeks in blowout victories, one of which was against this same Wranglers squad two weeks ago. Ultimately, the change in venue for this game, coupled with the value of the moneyline, are my deciding factors here. Despite the Wranglers losing their last two and surrendering a total of 107 points in those losses, they are still the league’s leading scoring defense at 36.7 points per game, and they have another level when playing at the Findlay Toyota Center. Even if they were to give up something in the 42-ish range, they would still have a solid chance for a strong win if they make the needed plays with the ball in their possession. I’m all about underlying value, and this pick embodies that at its current +160 payout potential.
Sunday 6/4: TUL @ SD (-8.5) | O/U 91.5 | Moneyline: TUL +210, SD -250
The pick: SD -8.5 Spread
The Oilers have not been able to carry their quality of play into road games thus far in their inaugural season, and they now have the daunting task of stopping Nate Davis and the Strike Force, who last Saturday put a legitimate scare into Frisco. Aside from their lone win over the Barnstormers in Iowa, Tulsa’s average margin of defeat in road games is 18.5 points, compared to just 5.0 points in their last three home games. Entering the week at 3-6, San Diego desperately needs a win to keep pace in the Western Conference playoff race, and this matchup should serve as a great starting point for a late push into contention. I’ll eat the point spread and trust that the better team takes care of business at Pechanga Arena.
Recommended 3-leg parlay:
“Saturday Afternoon Pick” : Tucson vs. Vegas – Sugar Skulls Moneyline (+125)
“Saturday’s Over Pick” : Green Bay vs. Iowa – OVER 92.5 (-110)
“Saturday’s Under Pick” : Duke City vs. Bay Area – UNDER 95.5 (-110)
Parlay Odds: +720 ($10.00 would win $72.00)
IFL Championship Winner Odds:
Green = Odds Increased from last week
Red = Odds Decreased from last week
Frisco Fighters +200
Bay Area Panthers +550
Quad City Steamwheelers +650
Massachusetts Pirates +700
Arizona Rattlers +700
Northern Arizona Wranglers +950
Tucson Sugar Skulls +1100
Sioux Falls Storm +1100
Vegas Knight Hawks +1700
San Diego Strike Force +2500
Green Bay Blizzard +2500
Duke City Gladiators +5000
Iowa Barnstormers +8000
Tulsa Oilers +8000