Post by alecs on Jun 7, 2023 8:42:21 GMT -8
Happy Wednesday, IFL Fans!
Welcome to Volume XI of my "Wager Wednesday" bit, in which I examine the current landscape of the upcoming week's games, based on lines and odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. As an advocate of accountability, I will recap my results - whether genius or moronic - from the prior week as well. With that, let's see how my picks from last week turned out:
• TUC @ VGS – TUC +125 (Woah, Nellie! The Opening Act of Week 12 provided insane entertainment value from start to finish, particularly on the bettors’ front. Vegas had the upper hand for the majority of the contest, but the Sugar Skulls showed persistence and stayed within striking distance every step of the way. Their lone defensive stop of the evening deep in the final quarter allowed them to take their first lead of the game with about 30 seconds to go. And Stevie Artigue was the victim of a perfectly executed “Icing the Kicker” endgame strategy, with his potential game-winner missing wide from short range. The Sugar Skulls thus stole the 42-41 road victory. I pay my respects to any over bettors who needed that final field goal to go in, with the point total set at 85.5. A made kick would have won by the hook.) $10.00 paid $22.50
• FRI @ MASS – MASS +7.5 (For context, this game had by far the highest over/under of the weekend at 108.5. That wildly high number turned out to be… far too low. Both teams ended up lighting the scoreboard ablaze all night long, but it was Massachusetts with a couple of key interceptions late – and an absolutely absurd FIVE deuces from kicker Josh Gable – that pushed them past their conference rival. The 72-58 Pirates win now makes the 1-2-3 race in the East a must-watch battle during the final five games of the season.) $10.00 paid $19.09
• GB @ IOWA – OVER 92.5 (Uhhhh… what?? I’d suspect a ton of people were as slack jawed as I was by how this wager turned out. The plodding pace and the continued struggles of Iowa’s offense resulted in the game coming up a ridiculous 30+ points short of the projection. As a result, Green Bay did not require its usually high-octane offensive outing, limiting Iowa to 17 points while coasting to a farily easygoing 43-17 win. The 60 total points was obviously not enough for over bettors.)
• DUKE @ BAY – BAY -12.5 (This was perhaps the scariest of the wagers for me while watching live, with Duke City showing remarkable resolve entering the fourth quarter down just three points. The Gladiator magic unfortunately ran out with two late-game interceptions by Charles McCullum, one resulting in the Bay Area touchdown that ultimately won this bet, and the second allowing the Panthers to drain the rest of the clock. Bay Area’s 69-52 victory covered the point spread at its 17-point margin.) $10.00 paid $19.09
• ARI @ NAZ – NAZ +160 (File this one with the select few candidates for “Game of the Year”. 60 minutes was not enough to decide the winner, with the Wranglers coming up clutch with the game-tying touchdown plus two-point conversion to force the extra frame. Both teams scored a touchdown and two-point conversion in the first overtime, but in the second overtime, the decision by NAZ to go for two after their touchdown backfired. Arizona took its double-OT possession in for a touchdown, and Shane McInerney calmly hit the game-winning PAT to clinch the win for the Rattlers. 63-62 was the final; Arizona’s third straight win, and Northern Arizona’s third straight loss.)
• TUL @ SD – SD -8.5 (Entering this game, Tulsa had dropped its three road losses by 21, 17, and 14 points. They looked far better than those results would have indicated on Sunday, playing well enough for a legitimate upset bid and even carried as high as a 13-point fourth quarter lead. But as has been the case all season, they were short that one or two closing plays needed to claim victory, none more agonizing than the last-second missed 18-yard field goal by Jeremy Reynolds that would have won them the game. Instead, Tulsa drops to 1-9 with the 56-55 loss to the Strike Force. Despite the win, San Diego did not cover its 8.5 point spread.)
Week 12 marked the first time since Week 5 where I failed to accumulate four wins, though I did manage to split the six-game weekend with three wins and three losses. The highlight of the week was Tucson’s thrilling road win at Vegas, which gave me a handsome +125 moneyline hit. A set of $10 bets on each of these would have returned $60.68, translating into a net gain of a whopping 68 cents for Week 12. (We were on the verge of greatness, guys, we were that close.) Overall this season, I am 33-of-61 (33-28) with a total result of roughly $66.18 of net gain. Anyone who has followed/tailed my betting in the past seven weeks has seen MASSIVE returns, with a record of 27-18 and a net gain of $94.91 since Week 6!
The Recommended Three-Leg Parlay of the Week got downed by two bad legs this past week (GB/IOWA Over 92.5 and DUKE/BAY Under 95.5), and remarkably it was the leg with the longest odds as the lone success (TUC Moneyline at +125). Hoping that this upcoming week provides a little more luck.
YTD Breakdown of wagers by type:
Over/Under: 9-for-20
Spreads: 14-for-25
Moneyline: 10-for-16
Week 13 brings back the full 14-team slate that we all love. As these teams hit the home stretch of the regular season, the time I have left to secure a 5+ win week continues to dwindle. Could it finally happen for me on Lucky Week 13? Read on to find out!
*Odds and lines shown are at time of posting. They will be updated prior to kickoff if they change; however, any net gain/loss calculations will use the original values.
Friday 6/9: QC (-4) @ GB | O/U 105.5 | Moneyline: QC -155, GB +135
The pick: GB +4 Spread
With over a month left to play in the regular season, this game somehow serves as the home finale for the Blizzard. All four of their remaining games after this one will take place on the road. Consequently, this game almost has to be a win in order for the Blizzard to viably set up a run to the playoffs. That’s not the easiest task in the world going up against the current #2-seeded Quad City Steamwheelers, who enter this game rested after last week’s bye. We have seen that Green Bay is capable of playing at a level high enough to make a legitimate bid at defeating Quad City; the Blizzard came within seven points in Moline a couple weeks ago. At the Resch Center, I feel solid about returning to the well with the GB cover pick, just as I did 14 days ago. And at the four-point underdog spread, we would be safe if the game’s outcome came down to a kick, which three games last week did precisely that.
Saturday 6/10: VGS @ MASS (-10.5) | O/U 102.5 | No Moneyline Bets as of posting
The pick: Over 102.5
After a painstaking home loss to Tucson last week, Vegas will travel east for a road date with the Pirates. The Knight Hawks will look to repeat the same feat that they accomplished in 2022: Be the first team to hand Massachusetts a home loss on the season. Each of the last four Pirates games has eclipsed the century mark for total points, as their defense has resembled more of a “quality-over-quantity” unit. They have given up a lot of points, but have also come through with the few clutch stops and takeaways when needed. The status of Da’Quan Neal will be worth monitoring this week (he left last week’s game late in the fourth quarter with an apparent ankle injury), but if the Knight Hawks can get one of Davonte Sapp-Lynch (Short-Term IR) or Derrius Guice (inactive last week) back for this game, that would give them another weapon with which to attack the generous run defense of the Pirates, and that could help keep the game interesting and fast-paced. The question becomes, does Vegas have a shot of slowing down a Pirates offense averaging 63 points a game in the last three weeks? Barring any surprising injury or transaction news leading up to Saturday, it’s hard to see that happening.
As predicted, Davonte Sapp-Lynch was activated off IR this week, and should be expected to suit up for this contest.
Saturday 6/10: FRI (-5.5) @ SXF | O/U 100.5 | Moneyline: FRI -190, SXF +160
The pick: Over 100.5
There’s a lot to like about going with this pick, as the league-wide trend for the past month has been convincingly more overs hitting than unders. Frisco has suddenly dropped two of its last three games but managed to scored 55, 70, and 58 points in those outings. Rather, it has been the defense that has surprisingly sprung a leak, and that is something that a rested Sioux Falls team could potentially look to capitalize on. It’s not hard to see this game evolving as a classic shootout between two teams that have shown sky-high 70+ point offensive ceilings already this season. Look for big plays aplenty from both sides looking to improve upon their playoff prospects.
Saturday 6/10: IOWA @ TUL (-9.5) | O/U 97.5 | No Moneyline Bets as of posting
The pick: TUL -9.5 Spread
Ah, yes, nothing screams excitement quite like the second edition of the Eastern Conference “Toilet Bowl”, where we will give one of these underwhelming squads a second win on the season. The thing is, though, that one of these 1-9 clubs has actually looked competent in these past few weeks. Tulsa has done a lot right in that span, but victory has always seemed to evade them, including last week’s heartbreaking loss by a single point in San Diego. The Oilers put up 55 points in that game, Iowa only has 43 in their past two games combined. That 73-43 win that the Barnstormers had over the Pirates earlier in the season is looking more like a mirage from an alternative universe with each passing week. I foresee the Oiler faithful finally being able to celebrate a home win, which would be the first in franchise history. Even if a moneyline option was here, the juice would be way too high, so I’ll lay the points and back the team that has proven far more reliable.
Saturday 6/10: DUKE @ TUC (-6.5) | O/U 89.5 | Moneyline: DUKE +170, TUC -200
The pick: Under 89.5
The previous encounter in Week 9 between the Gladiators and Sugar Skulls featured 105 points scored in Albuquerque, with Duke City claiming the 56-49 win. I have to think that gets toned down in a game where Tucson wants to slow the pace at home and not allow Duke City to continue its impressive offensive surge. Ramone Atkins will get a second chance at defeating his former team, with whom he won Offensive Rookie of the Year a season ago. A win for the Sugar Skulls would keep them in a Western Conference playoff position, and their past two games have settled in the mid 80’s for combined point total. If they can find success dictating the game’s speed to their liking and come up with a defensive performance closer to or better than their season average (39.9 points per game), they should win while holding the game’s combined total beneath this projection.
Sunday 6/11: NAZ (-1) @ SD | O/U 87.5 | Moneyline: NAZ -115, SD -105
The pick: NAZ -115 Moneyline
Dang, I very much want to pick San Diego here at home, I really do. At surface level, it makes sense, right? The Wranglers have lost three straight and are suddenly seeking answers from within, and the Strike Force know they can vault themselves in a provisional playoff spot with a victory. The stars are aligning just right, but I just cannot bring myself to do it. Not with how penalty-ridden and mistake-prone the Strike Force are, particularly defensively. And let’s be honest – they had no business winning against Tulsa last week, benefitting from a missed 18-yard chip shot field goal. This is the game for Northern Arizona where the pressure to win will be the highest it has been all season long. Look for the battle-tested Wranglers to rise to that challenge and attack Nate Davis, who seems to be playing through a noticeable amount of pain recently. I’ll accept the 15% juice on a straight up win rather than 10% juice on the spread. If NAZ did win by a single point, the wager would be a push. We play for the win here, folks!
Sunday 6/11: BAY @ ARI (-4.5) | O/U 107.5 | Moneyline: BAY +145, ARI -170
The pick: BAY +130 Moneyline
The bona fide matchup of the week will pit the two hottest teams in the Western Conference against each other in the desert on Sunday night. This is shaping up to be the most likely outcome for Western Conference Final, with both teams separating themselves from the rest of the pack in recent weeks. The Panthers took the first game of this season series in Week 2, defeating Arizona 47-46 at SAP Center. My model is projecting a 52% win probability for the visiting Panthers, which presents significant value on backing them as a candidate for the road upset. At its 107.5 point O/U, this is another game with wild shootout potential, and the winner could come down to which team flinches first. Pound-for-pound, this pick is a toss-up, and of course I’ll pick the side with the higher payout. The Arbet/Guy head coaching matchup gives nostalgic shades of early 2010’s AFL glamour.
We got a last-second change in lines here. Arizona moves from a 3.5 to 4.5 favorite, while their moneyline payout decrease to -170 from -150.
Recommended 3-leg parlay:
“Friday’s Pick” : Quad City vs. Green Bay – Blizzard Moneyline (+135)
“Saturday’s Pick” : Frisco vs. Sioux Falls – OVER 100.5 (-110)
“Sunday’s Pick” : Northern Arizona vs. San Diego – Wranglers -1 Spread (-110)
Parlay Odds: +756 ($10.00 would win ~$75.64)
IFL Championship Winner Odds:
Green = Odds Increased from last week
Red = Odds Decreased from last week
Frisco Fighters +300
Bay Area Panthers +500
Massachusetts Pirates +500
Arizona Rattlers +500
Quad City Steamwheelers +650
Northern Arizona Wranglers +1000
Tucson Sugar Skulls +1100
Sioux Falls Storm +1100
Vegas Knight Hawks +2000
San Diego Strike Force +2500
Green Bay Blizzard +2500
Duke City Gladiators +5000
Tulsa Oilers +8000
Iowa Barnstormers +10000
UPDATED 6/11/2023 at 6:00 PM ET
Welcome to Volume XI of my "Wager Wednesday" bit, in which I examine the current landscape of the upcoming week's games, based on lines and odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. As an advocate of accountability, I will recap my results - whether genius or moronic - from the prior week as well. With that, let's see how my picks from last week turned out:
• TUC @ VGS – TUC +125 (Woah, Nellie! The Opening Act of Week 12 provided insane entertainment value from start to finish, particularly on the bettors’ front. Vegas had the upper hand for the majority of the contest, but the Sugar Skulls showed persistence and stayed within striking distance every step of the way. Their lone defensive stop of the evening deep in the final quarter allowed them to take their first lead of the game with about 30 seconds to go. And Stevie Artigue was the victim of a perfectly executed “Icing the Kicker” endgame strategy, with his potential game-winner missing wide from short range. The Sugar Skulls thus stole the 42-41 road victory. I pay my respects to any over bettors who needed that final field goal to go in, with the point total set at 85.5. A made kick would have won by the hook.) $10.00 paid $22.50
• FRI @ MASS – MASS +7.5 (For context, this game had by far the highest over/under of the weekend at 108.5. That wildly high number turned out to be… far too low. Both teams ended up lighting the scoreboard ablaze all night long, but it was Massachusetts with a couple of key interceptions late – and an absolutely absurd FIVE deuces from kicker Josh Gable – that pushed them past their conference rival. The 72-58 Pirates win now makes the 1-2-3 race in the East a must-watch battle during the final five games of the season.) $10.00 paid $19.09
• GB @ IOWA – OVER 92.5 (Uhhhh… what?? I’d suspect a ton of people were as slack jawed as I was by how this wager turned out. The plodding pace and the continued struggles of Iowa’s offense resulted in the game coming up a ridiculous 30+ points short of the projection. As a result, Green Bay did not require its usually high-octane offensive outing, limiting Iowa to 17 points while coasting to a farily easygoing 43-17 win. The 60 total points was obviously not enough for over bettors.)
• DUKE @ BAY – BAY -12.5 (This was perhaps the scariest of the wagers for me while watching live, with Duke City showing remarkable resolve entering the fourth quarter down just three points. The Gladiator magic unfortunately ran out with two late-game interceptions by Charles McCullum, one resulting in the Bay Area touchdown that ultimately won this bet, and the second allowing the Panthers to drain the rest of the clock. Bay Area’s 69-52 victory covered the point spread at its 17-point margin.) $10.00 paid $19.09
• ARI @ NAZ – NAZ +160 (File this one with the select few candidates for “Game of the Year”. 60 minutes was not enough to decide the winner, with the Wranglers coming up clutch with the game-tying touchdown plus two-point conversion to force the extra frame. Both teams scored a touchdown and two-point conversion in the first overtime, but in the second overtime, the decision by NAZ to go for two after their touchdown backfired. Arizona took its double-OT possession in for a touchdown, and Shane McInerney calmly hit the game-winning PAT to clinch the win for the Rattlers. 63-62 was the final; Arizona’s third straight win, and Northern Arizona’s third straight loss.)
• TUL @ SD – SD -8.5 (Entering this game, Tulsa had dropped its three road losses by 21, 17, and 14 points. They looked far better than those results would have indicated on Sunday, playing well enough for a legitimate upset bid and even carried as high as a 13-point fourth quarter lead. But as has been the case all season, they were short that one or two closing plays needed to claim victory, none more agonizing than the last-second missed 18-yard field goal by Jeremy Reynolds that would have won them the game. Instead, Tulsa drops to 1-9 with the 56-55 loss to the Strike Force. Despite the win, San Diego did not cover its 8.5 point spread.)
Week 12 marked the first time since Week 5 where I failed to accumulate four wins, though I did manage to split the six-game weekend with three wins and three losses. The highlight of the week was Tucson’s thrilling road win at Vegas, which gave me a handsome +125 moneyline hit. A set of $10 bets on each of these would have returned $60.68, translating into a net gain of a whopping 68 cents for Week 12. (We were on the verge of greatness, guys, we were that close.) Overall this season, I am 33-of-61 (33-28) with a total result of roughly $66.18 of net gain. Anyone who has followed/tailed my betting in the past seven weeks has seen MASSIVE returns, with a record of 27-18 and a net gain of $94.91 since Week 6!
The Recommended Three-Leg Parlay of the Week got downed by two bad legs this past week (GB/IOWA Over 92.5 and DUKE/BAY Under 95.5), and remarkably it was the leg with the longest odds as the lone success (TUC Moneyline at +125). Hoping that this upcoming week provides a little more luck.
YTD Breakdown of wagers by type:
Over/Under: 9-for-20
Spreads: 14-for-25
Moneyline: 10-for-16
Week 13 brings back the full 14-team slate that we all love. As these teams hit the home stretch of the regular season, the time I have left to secure a 5+ win week continues to dwindle. Could it finally happen for me on Lucky Week 13? Read on to find out!
*Odds and lines shown are at time of posting. They will be updated prior to kickoff if they change; however, any net gain/loss calculations will use the original values.
Friday 6/9: QC (-4) @ GB | O/U 105.5 | Moneyline: QC -155, GB +135
The pick: GB +4 Spread
With over a month left to play in the regular season, this game somehow serves as the home finale for the Blizzard. All four of their remaining games after this one will take place on the road. Consequently, this game almost has to be a win in order for the Blizzard to viably set up a run to the playoffs. That’s not the easiest task in the world going up against the current #2-seeded Quad City Steamwheelers, who enter this game rested after last week’s bye. We have seen that Green Bay is capable of playing at a level high enough to make a legitimate bid at defeating Quad City; the Blizzard came within seven points in Moline a couple weeks ago. At the Resch Center, I feel solid about returning to the well with the GB cover pick, just as I did 14 days ago. And at the four-point underdog spread, we would be safe if the game’s outcome came down to a kick, which three games last week did precisely that.
Saturday 6/10: VGS @ MASS (-10.5) | O/U 102.5 | No Moneyline Bets as of posting
The pick: Over 102.5
After a painstaking home loss to Tucson last week, Vegas will travel east for a road date with the Pirates. The Knight Hawks will look to repeat the same feat that they accomplished in 2022: Be the first team to hand Massachusetts a home loss on the season. Each of the last four Pirates games has eclipsed the century mark for total points, as their defense has resembled more of a “quality-over-quantity” unit. They have given up a lot of points, but have also come through with the few clutch stops and takeaways when needed. The status of Da’Quan Neal will be worth monitoring this week (he left last week’s game late in the fourth quarter with an apparent ankle injury), but if the Knight Hawks can get one of Davonte Sapp-Lynch (Short-Term IR) or Derrius Guice (inactive last week) back for this game, that would give them another weapon with which to attack the generous run defense of the Pirates, and that could help keep the game interesting and fast-paced. The question becomes, does Vegas have a shot of slowing down a Pirates offense averaging 63 points a game in the last three weeks? Barring any surprising injury or transaction news leading up to Saturday, it’s hard to see that happening.
As predicted, Davonte Sapp-Lynch was activated off IR this week, and should be expected to suit up for this contest.
Saturday 6/10: FRI (-5.5) @ SXF | O/U 100.5 | Moneyline: FRI -190, SXF +160
The pick: Over 100.5
There’s a lot to like about going with this pick, as the league-wide trend for the past month has been convincingly more overs hitting than unders. Frisco has suddenly dropped two of its last three games but managed to scored 55, 70, and 58 points in those outings. Rather, it has been the defense that has surprisingly sprung a leak, and that is something that a rested Sioux Falls team could potentially look to capitalize on. It’s not hard to see this game evolving as a classic shootout between two teams that have shown sky-high 70+ point offensive ceilings already this season. Look for big plays aplenty from both sides looking to improve upon their playoff prospects.
Saturday 6/10: IOWA @ TUL (-9.5) | O/U 97.5 | No Moneyline Bets as of posting
The pick: TUL -9.5 Spread
Ah, yes, nothing screams excitement quite like the second edition of the Eastern Conference “Toilet Bowl”, where we will give one of these underwhelming squads a second win on the season. The thing is, though, that one of these 1-9 clubs has actually looked competent in these past few weeks. Tulsa has done a lot right in that span, but victory has always seemed to evade them, including last week’s heartbreaking loss by a single point in San Diego. The Oilers put up 55 points in that game, Iowa only has 43 in their past two games combined. That 73-43 win that the Barnstormers had over the Pirates earlier in the season is looking more like a mirage from an alternative universe with each passing week. I foresee the Oiler faithful finally being able to celebrate a home win, which would be the first in franchise history. Even if a moneyline option was here, the juice would be way too high, so I’ll lay the points and back the team that has proven far more reliable.
Saturday 6/10: DUKE @ TUC (-6.5) | O/U 89.5 | Moneyline: DUKE +170, TUC -200
The pick: Under 89.5
The previous encounter in Week 9 between the Gladiators and Sugar Skulls featured 105 points scored in Albuquerque, with Duke City claiming the 56-49 win. I have to think that gets toned down in a game where Tucson wants to slow the pace at home and not allow Duke City to continue its impressive offensive surge. Ramone Atkins will get a second chance at defeating his former team, with whom he won Offensive Rookie of the Year a season ago. A win for the Sugar Skulls would keep them in a Western Conference playoff position, and their past two games have settled in the mid 80’s for combined point total. If they can find success dictating the game’s speed to their liking and come up with a defensive performance closer to or better than their season average (39.9 points per game), they should win while holding the game’s combined total beneath this projection.
Sunday 6/11: NAZ (-1) @ SD | O/U 87.5 | Moneyline: NAZ -115, SD -105
The pick: NAZ -115 Moneyline
Dang, I very much want to pick San Diego here at home, I really do. At surface level, it makes sense, right? The Wranglers have lost three straight and are suddenly seeking answers from within, and the Strike Force know they can vault themselves in a provisional playoff spot with a victory. The stars are aligning just right, but I just cannot bring myself to do it. Not with how penalty-ridden and mistake-prone the Strike Force are, particularly defensively. And let’s be honest – they had no business winning against Tulsa last week, benefitting from a missed 18-yard chip shot field goal. This is the game for Northern Arizona where the pressure to win will be the highest it has been all season long. Look for the battle-tested Wranglers to rise to that challenge and attack Nate Davis, who seems to be playing through a noticeable amount of pain recently. I’ll accept the 15% juice on a straight up win rather than 10% juice on the spread. If NAZ did win by a single point, the wager would be a push. We play for the win here, folks!
Sunday 6/11: BAY @ ARI (-4.5) | O/U 107.5 | Moneyline: BAY +145, ARI -170
The pick: BAY +130 Moneyline
The bona fide matchup of the week will pit the two hottest teams in the Western Conference against each other in the desert on Sunday night. This is shaping up to be the most likely outcome for Western Conference Final, with both teams separating themselves from the rest of the pack in recent weeks. The Panthers took the first game of this season series in Week 2, defeating Arizona 47-46 at SAP Center. My model is projecting a 52% win probability for the visiting Panthers, which presents significant value on backing them as a candidate for the road upset. At its 107.5 point O/U, this is another game with wild shootout potential, and the winner could come down to which team flinches first. Pound-for-pound, this pick is a toss-up, and of course I’ll pick the side with the higher payout. The Arbet/Guy head coaching matchup gives nostalgic shades of early 2010’s AFL glamour.
We got a last-second change in lines here. Arizona moves from a 3.5 to 4.5 favorite, while their moneyline payout decrease to -170 from -150.
Recommended 3-leg parlay:
“Friday’s Pick” : Quad City vs. Green Bay – Blizzard Moneyline (+135)
“Saturday’s Pick” : Frisco vs. Sioux Falls – OVER 100.5 (-110)
“Sunday’s Pick” : Northern Arizona vs. San Diego – Wranglers -1 Spread (-110)
Parlay Odds: +756 ($10.00 would win ~$75.64)
IFL Championship Winner Odds:
Green = Odds Increased from last week
Red = Odds Decreased from last week
Frisco Fighters +300
Bay Area Panthers +500
Massachusetts Pirates +500
Arizona Rattlers +500
Quad City Steamwheelers +650
Northern Arizona Wranglers +1000
Tucson Sugar Skulls +1100
Sioux Falls Storm +1100
Vegas Knight Hawks +2000
San Diego Strike Force +2500
Green Bay Blizzard +2500
Duke City Gladiators +5000
Tulsa Oilers +8000
Iowa Barnstormers +10000
UPDATED 6/11/2023 at 6:00 PM ET