Post by alecs on Jun 28, 2023 8:50:46 GMT -8
Happy Wednesday, IFL Fans!
Welcome to Volume XIV of my "Wager Wednesday" bit, in which I examine the current landscape of the upcoming week's games, based on lines and odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. As an advocate of accountability, I will recap my results - whether genius or moronic - from the prior week as well. With that, let's see how my picks from last week turned out:
• GB @ SXF – GB +130 (We were super close to getting a come-from-behind victory on this one. Sioux Falls dominated with their running game, posting seven rushing touchdowns as a team, but Green Bay hung around and got a late takeaway to give them a chance to tie the game, at which point they were down by eight. They got the touchdown, but the two-point conversion was overturned after initially being called a completed catch. In a baffling kickoff, Green Bay elected not to attempt the onside kick, killing any hope of overtime. Sioux Falls prevailed 47-45.)
• TUL @ MASS – MASS -12.5 (Anyone watching this game will agree when I say that the outcome of this wager was far closer than it appears on paper. In a game where Tulsa actually gave the Massachusetts offense fits in the second half, the Oilers had an opportunity for a possible backdoor cover. A buzzer-beating toss to the endzone was ruled incomplete, which would have been a crushing blow for any -13.5 bettors, as the line had changed just moments before kickoff. Fortunately for anyone who backed the Pirates, regardless of which number you locked in at, your faith was rewarded with a winning wager. The 43-24 win for Massachusetts did the job either way.) $10.00 paid $19.09
• IOWA @ QC – QC -4.5 (I’m not even going to pretend to lie, this might be the easiest money I’ve made on any sports bet. The result of the Barnstormers/Steamwheelers game was the antithesis of last week’s shocker, with Quad City bouncing back in a massive way. E.J. Hilliard and the offense overwhelmed an Iowa defense that is now the only unit in the league surrendering over 50 points per game, and Daniel Smith had his first “meh” game under center for Iowa. 63-35 stood as the final score of Quad City’s blowout revenge win.) $10.00 paid $19.09
• BAY @ FRI – OVER 108.5 (Right away, this bet was put behind the eight-ball when Dalton Sneed was announced as a late scratch due to illness. But the bet actually got off to a reasonable start, as the Panthers led 38-30 with 11 minutes to go in the third quarter. Then we hit the classic snag that all over bettors dread – the elongated scoring drought. The next touchdown wouldn’t take place until the other side of the fourth quarter, over 12 minutes elapsing without a single point, and Bay Area didn’t find the endzone for the rest of the game, either. Frisco ended up securing win number 11 on the season by a 45-38 final, and the 83 combined points were well short of the required amount for us to win.)
• VGS @ DUKE – VGS -1.5 (Just like Bay Area/Frisco, I couldn’t have asked for a better start to this game. Vegas blitzed out to an early 22-2 lead, but Duke City remained undeterred and completely swept the rug out from underneath the Knight Hawks. Unsuccessful Vegas possessions and Duke City scores continued to pile one on top of the other, to the point where the Gladiators amassed an incredible 38 unanswered points. The game would go on to end on a 51-8 run by Duke City, and the Gladiators keep their slim postseason hopes alive thanks to the 53-30 victory.)
• SD @ ARI – UNDER 109.5 (This game had the highest total of the week, but yikes, it got super close near the end. We actually entered the final frame with just 64 combined points – 36-28 Arizona was the score at the time. The fourth quarter saw a staggering 41 points scored between the two sides, and San Diego even had a late opportunity to recover an onside kick, which Arizona recovered to seal the win. The Rattlers’ sixth consecutive win came by a final score of 57-48, with 105 combined points barely staying below the O/U figure.) $10.00 paid $19.09
• TUC @ NAZ – TUC +105 (The gritty nature of this rivalry is so entertaining to watch, because each score feels like it’s at a premium worth far more than it would in an average IFL game. The battle of these two defensive stalwarts would be decided by Tucson, who managed to chase Garrett Kettle out of his second consecutive game. The defending champs fall below .500, and the Sugar Skulls climb closer to a playoff berth, with Tucson’s 42-28 triumph.) $10.00 paid $20.50
This turned out to be far from an easy week of action, and it required a perfect duo of victories in the 9:00pm ET games to reach our four-win goal, but we managed the winning week, our eighth such result in the past ten weeks! We hand-picked another successful moneyline bet (Tucson over NAZ), as is tradition, for a solid +105 payout! If nothing else, we have become extremely consistent, and winning more bets in a week than losing, even if that’s by a slim margin on a weekly basis, adds up over the long run. A set of $10 bets on each of these would have returned $77.77, translating into a net gain of $7.77 for Week 15 (should be a bigger jackpot than that, don’t you think?!) Overall this season, I am 44-of-81 (44-37) with a total result of roughly $87.10 of net gain. Anyone who has followed/tailed my betting in the past ten weeks has seen convincingly positive returns, with a record of 38-27 and a net gain of $115.83 since Week 6!
Week 15’s Recommended Three-Leg Parlay mustered only one success of the trio, with that being Tucson’s moneyline hit. Green Bay came within two points of forcing overtime and a possible win, while Arizona fell victim to San Diego’s backdoor cover, beating their 13.5 point spread (57-48 Arizona win). The pair of wrong choices on the parlay slip looks worse than it really was, with both bad legs losing by a combined seven points if you think about it that way. Parlay betting be cruel like that sometimes.
YTD Breakdown of wagers by type:
Over/Under: 12-for-26
Spreads: 19-of-34
Moneyline: 13-for-21
Week 16 gives us a heavily abbreviated four-game, eight-team schedule that leaves six teams on bye as the calendar turns to July (QC, IOWA, BAY, NAZ, SD, DUKE). So there’s not much room for error when it comes to gunning for another victorious week (we’d need to go either 4-0 or 3-1 for a true winning week). Can we still find some luck this weekend despite the small sample size? Read on to find out!
*Odds and lines shown are at time of posting. They will be updated prior to kickoff if they change; however, any net gain/loss calculations will use the original values.
Saturday 7/1: SXF @ FRI (-7) | O/U 97.5 | Moneyline: SXF +165, FRI -195
The pick: FRI -7 Spread
Saturday’s game, as it currently stands, offers us a preview of the Eastern Conference’s #1 versus #4 semifinal matchup. The Storm head to Frisco vying for a massive upset that would all but secure their spot in the postseason, while Frisco looks to potentially lock down home field advantage if they can pull this game out (and if Massachusetts loses Sunday’s contest at Arizona). The first game between these two teams hit the century mark (54-51 Frisco win in Week 13), but I think we’ll get a tighter game this time around in Comerica Center. If the Fighters do their homework and gameplan their defense around Sioux Falls’ running game, they’re more than capable of forcing the Storm to beat them through the air, which is where the Fighters can really attack Lorenzo Brown. Notably, this line opened at FRI -11.5 on Monday prior to a sizable change of 4.5 points overnight. I can’t find fault in anyone who wishes to hold off locking their pick in until the league’s transaction page tells a possible story later this afternoon (something up with T.J. Edwards, perhaps??) For what it’s worth, I still would have recommended Frisco at the original spread, so “buying” 4.5 points for free sounds like a dang good deal to me!
Saturday 7/1: GB (-6.5) @ TUL | O/U 89.5 | Moneyline: GB -190, TUL +160
The pick: TUL +6.5 Spread
Look, the Oilers are 1-12, and there’s something to be said if a team – albeit one in its inaugural season – could only manage one victory in its first thirteen games. But something seems different about this Tulsa team despite that bothersome lack of results. Somehow, they pass the eye test, and they’ve been genuinely competitive for the most part, especially in games at home. And under normal circumstances, Oilers moneyline would unquestionably be my pick here. However, Green Bay needs to win this game, entering Week 16 outside of a playoff spot and likely needing to win out their last three games to have a shot at clinching. My model is very high on the Blizzard in this game, projecting a lofty 88% win probability for the visitors. The data suggests the Blizzard should win, but BOK Center as the equalizing factor sways my bet in favor of the Oilers covering this spread. I’d feel a lot better if this were +7.5 or +8.5, but I’ll trust the season-long trend of one-possession games in Oklahoma.
Saturday 7/1: VGS @ TUC (-7.5) | O/U 85.5 | Moneyline: VGS +200, TUC -240
The pick: TUC -7.5 Spread
Installment Two of this series comes roughly a month after the first meeting, with Tucson winning 42-41 after a shanked go-ahead field goal attempt by Vegas lost them the game at the Dollar Loan Center. I’ll be interested to see if Knight Hawks HC Mike Davis can keep his team’s effort level up after getting eliminated in last week’s costly loss at Duke City. Meanwhile, Tucson could solidify its spot in the playoffs with a win, as they control their own playoff fate at this point. We’ve seen practically the entire spectrum of week-to-week outcomes for Vegas throughout this season, but it’s been near impossible to get a pulse on exactly which level we see each week. Now, with Vegas’s season winding down, and Tucson’s heating up for a likely postseason run, Tucson should be able to take care of business and defend the Bone Yard. The only thing I don’t entirely trust is the sporadic inconsistency of the Sugar Skulls, which makes me very tempted to chicken out and pick the Skulls on the moneyline. Can’t do it laying -240 juice, though, so let’s hope the Skulls set the tone early and cover.
Sunday 7/2: MASS @ ARI (-5.5) | O/U 107.5 | Moneyline: MASS +140, ARI -165
The pick: ARI -5.5 Spread
The rematch of the 2021 United Bowl carries with it some sky-high stakes. Something is going to have to give between the Pirates five-game win streak and the Rattlers six-game streak, with both teams playing championship-worthy football right now. As much as I love my hometown Bay State Buccos, I simply can’t justify backing a team that’s 0-5 this season against the spread on the road, particularly when they’re going up against the championship front-runners in my opinion. Sunday’s game should hopefully be more competitive than the 59-29 bare-buttocks beating that Arizona handed the Pirates last year, but in the Snake Pit this is Arizona’s game to lose. Drew Powell could have yet another field day against one of the league’s most merciful run defense units.
Recommended 3-leg parlay:
“Saturday’s Speculative Pick” – Green Bay vs. Tulsa – Oilers Moneyline (+160)
“Saturday’s Lock Pick” – Vegas vs. Tucson – Sugar Skulls Moneyline (-240)
“Sunday’s Pick” – Massachusetts vs. Arizona – UNDER 107.5 (-110)
Parlay Odds +603 ($10.00 would win ~$60.31)
IFL Championship Winner Odds:
Green = Odds Increased from last week
Red = Odds Decreased from last week
Frisco Fighters +300
Arizona Rattlers +300
Massachusetts Pirates +475
Bay Area Panthers +550
Quad City Steamwheelers +750
Tucson Sugar Skulls +1100
Sioux Falls Storm +1200
Northern Arizona Wranglers +1300
Green Bay Blizzard +2500
San Diego Strike Force +2500
Vegas Knight Hawks +3500*
Duke City Gladiators +4500
Iowa Barnstormers +8000*
Tulsa Oilers +12000*
(*Tulsa, Iowa, and Vegas should technically be off the table, since they are now mathematically eliminated from playoff contention after Week 15)
Good luck to all you bettors out there! Let’s print out the big bucks!!
Welcome to Volume XIV of my "Wager Wednesday" bit, in which I examine the current landscape of the upcoming week's games, based on lines and odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. As an advocate of accountability, I will recap my results - whether genius or moronic - from the prior week as well. With that, let's see how my picks from last week turned out:
• GB @ SXF – GB +130 (We were super close to getting a come-from-behind victory on this one. Sioux Falls dominated with their running game, posting seven rushing touchdowns as a team, but Green Bay hung around and got a late takeaway to give them a chance to tie the game, at which point they were down by eight. They got the touchdown, but the two-point conversion was overturned after initially being called a completed catch. In a baffling kickoff, Green Bay elected not to attempt the onside kick, killing any hope of overtime. Sioux Falls prevailed 47-45.)
• TUL @ MASS – MASS -12.5 (Anyone watching this game will agree when I say that the outcome of this wager was far closer than it appears on paper. In a game where Tulsa actually gave the Massachusetts offense fits in the second half, the Oilers had an opportunity for a possible backdoor cover. A buzzer-beating toss to the endzone was ruled incomplete, which would have been a crushing blow for any -13.5 bettors, as the line had changed just moments before kickoff. Fortunately for anyone who backed the Pirates, regardless of which number you locked in at, your faith was rewarded with a winning wager. The 43-24 win for Massachusetts did the job either way.) $10.00 paid $19.09
• IOWA @ QC – QC -4.5 (I’m not even going to pretend to lie, this might be the easiest money I’ve made on any sports bet. The result of the Barnstormers/Steamwheelers game was the antithesis of last week’s shocker, with Quad City bouncing back in a massive way. E.J. Hilliard and the offense overwhelmed an Iowa defense that is now the only unit in the league surrendering over 50 points per game, and Daniel Smith had his first “meh” game under center for Iowa. 63-35 stood as the final score of Quad City’s blowout revenge win.) $10.00 paid $19.09
• BAY @ FRI – OVER 108.5 (Right away, this bet was put behind the eight-ball when Dalton Sneed was announced as a late scratch due to illness. But the bet actually got off to a reasonable start, as the Panthers led 38-30 with 11 minutes to go in the third quarter. Then we hit the classic snag that all over bettors dread – the elongated scoring drought. The next touchdown wouldn’t take place until the other side of the fourth quarter, over 12 minutes elapsing without a single point, and Bay Area didn’t find the endzone for the rest of the game, either. Frisco ended up securing win number 11 on the season by a 45-38 final, and the 83 combined points were well short of the required amount for us to win.)
• VGS @ DUKE – VGS -1.5 (Just like Bay Area/Frisco, I couldn’t have asked for a better start to this game. Vegas blitzed out to an early 22-2 lead, but Duke City remained undeterred and completely swept the rug out from underneath the Knight Hawks. Unsuccessful Vegas possessions and Duke City scores continued to pile one on top of the other, to the point where the Gladiators amassed an incredible 38 unanswered points. The game would go on to end on a 51-8 run by Duke City, and the Gladiators keep their slim postseason hopes alive thanks to the 53-30 victory.)
• SD @ ARI – UNDER 109.5 (This game had the highest total of the week, but yikes, it got super close near the end. We actually entered the final frame with just 64 combined points – 36-28 Arizona was the score at the time. The fourth quarter saw a staggering 41 points scored between the two sides, and San Diego even had a late opportunity to recover an onside kick, which Arizona recovered to seal the win. The Rattlers’ sixth consecutive win came by a final score of 57-48, with 105 combined points barely staying below the O/U figure.) $10.00 paid $19.09
• TUC @ NAZ – TUC +105 (The gritty nature of this rivalry is so entertaining to watch, because each score feels like it’s at a premium worth far more than it would in an average IFL game. The battle of these two defensive stalwarts would be decided by Tucson, who managed to chase Garrett Kettle out of his second consecutive game. The defending champs fall below .500, and the Sugar Skulls climb closer to a playoff berth, with Tucson’s 42-28 triumph.) $10.00 paid $20.50
This turned out to be far from an easy week of action, and it required a perfect duo of victories in the 9:00pm ET games to reach our four-win goal, but we managed the winning week, our eighth such result in the past ten weeks! We hand-picked another successful moneyline bet (Tucson over NAZ), as is tradition, for a solid +105 payout! If nothing else, we have become extremely consistent, and winning more bets in a week than losing, even if that’s by a slim margin on a weekly basis, adds up over the long run. A set of $10 bets on each of these would have returned $77.77, translating into a net gain of $7.77 for Week 15 (should be a bigger jackpot than that, don’t you think?!) Overall this season, I am 44-of-81 (44-37) with a total result of roughly $87.10 of net gain. Anyone who has followed/tailed my betting in the past ten weeks has seen convincingly positive returns, with a record of 38-27 and a net gain of $115.83 since Week 6!
Week 15’s Recommended Three-Leg Parlay mustered only one success of the trio, with that being Tucson’s moneyline hit. Green Bay came within two points of forcing overtime and a possible win, while Arizona fell victim to San Diego’s backdoor cover, beating their 13.5 point spread (57-48 Arizona win). The pair of wrong choices on the parlay slip looks worse than it really was, with both bad legs losing by a combined seven points if you think about it that way. Parlay betting be cruel like that sometimes.
YTD Breakdown of wagers by type:
Over/Under: 12-for-26
Spreads: 19-of-34
Moneyline: 13-for-21
Week 16 gives us a heavily abbreviated four-game, eight-team schedule that leaves six teams on bye as the calendar turns to July (QC, IOWA, BAY, NAZ, SD, DUKE). So there’s not much room for error when it comes to gunning for another victorious week (we’d need to go either 4-0 or 3-1 for a true winning week). Can we still find some luck this weekend despite the small sample size? Read on to find out!
*Odds and lines shown are at time of posting. They will be updated prior to kickoff if they change; however, any net gain/loss calculations will use the original values.
Saturday 7/1: SXF @ FRI (-7) | O/U 97.5 | Moneyline: SXF +165, FRI -195
The pick: FRI -7 Spread
Saturday’s game, as it currently stands, offers us a preview of the Eastern Conference’s #1 versus #4 semifinal matchup. The Storm head to Frisco vying for a massive upset that would all but secure their spot in the postseason, while Frisco looks to potentially lock down home field advantage if they can pull this game out (and if Massachusetts loses Sunday’s contest at Arizona). The first game between these two teams hit the century mark (54-51 Frisco win in Week 13), but I think we’ll get a tighter game this time around in Comerica Center. If the Fighters do their homework and gameplan their defense around Sioux Falls’ running game, they’re more than capable of forcing the Storm to beat them through the air, which is where the Fighters can really attack Lorenzo Brown. Notably, this line opened at FRI -11.5 on Monday prior to a sizable change of 4.5 points overnight. I can’t find fault in anyone who wishes to hold off locking their pick in until the league’s transaction page tells a possible story later this afternoon (something up with T.J. Edwards, perhaps??) For what it’s worth, I still would have recommended Frisco at the original spread, so “buying” 4.5 points for free sounds like a dang good deal to me!
Saturday 7/1: GB (-6.5) @ TUL | O/U 89.5 | Moneyline: GB -190, TUL +160
The pick: TUL +6.5 Spread
Look, the Oilers are 1-12, and there’s something to be said if a team – albeit one in its inaugural season – could only manage one victory in its first thirteen games. But something seems different about this Tulsa team despite that bothersome lack of results. Somehow, they pass the eye test, and they’ve been genuinely competitive for the most part, especially in games at home. And under normal circumstances, Oilers moneyline would unquestionably be my pick here. However, Green Bay needs to win this game, entering Week 16 outside of a playoff spot and likely needing to win out their last three games to have a shot at clinching. My model is very high on the Blizzard in this game, projecting a lofty 88% win probability for the visitors. The data suggests the Blizzard should win, but BOK Center as the equalizing factor sways my bet in favor of the Oilers covering this spread. I’d feel a lot better if this were +7.5 or +8.5, but I’ll trust the season-long trend of one-possession games in Oklahoma.
Saturday 7/1: VGS @ TUC (-7.5) | O/U 85.5 | Moneyline: VGS +200, TUC -240
The pick: TUC -7.5 Spread
Installment Two of this series comes roughly a month after the first meeting, with Tucson winning 42-41 after a shanked go-ahead field goal attempt by Vegas lost them the game at the Dollar Loan Center. I’ll be interested to see if Knight Hawks HC Mike Davis can keep his team’s effort level up after getting eliminated in last week’s costly loss at Duke City. Meanwhile, Tucson could solidify its spot in the playoffs with a win, as they control their own playoff fate at this point. We’ve seen practically the entire spectrum of week-to-week outcomes for Vegas throughout this season, but it’s been near impossible to get a pulse on exactly which level we see each week. Now, with Vegas’s season winding down, and Tucson’s heating up for a likely postseason run, Tucson should be able to take care of business and defend the Bone Yard. The only thing I don’t entirely trust is the sporadic inconsistency of the Sugar Skulls, which makes me very tempted to chicken out and pick the Skulls on the moneyline. Can’t do it laying -240 juice, though, so let’s hope the Skulls set the tone early and cover.
Sunday 7/2: MASS @ ARI (-5.5) | O/U 107.5 | Moneyline: MASS +140, ARI -165
The pick: ARI -5.5 Spread
The rematch of the 2021 United Bowl carries with it some sky-high stakes. Something is going to have to give between the Pirates five-game win streak and the Rattlers six-game streak, with both teams playing championship-worthy football right now. As much as I love my hometown Bay State Buccos, I simply can’t justify backing a team that’s 0-5 this season against the spread on the road, particularly when they’re going up against the championship front-runners in my opinion. Sunday’s game should hopefully be more competitive than the 59-29 bare-buttocks beating that Arizona handed the Pirates last year, but in the Snake Pit this is Arizona’s game to lose. Drew Powell could have yet another field day against one of the league’s most merciful run defense units.
Recommended 3-leg parlay:
“Saturday’s Speculative Pick” – Green Bay vs. Tulsa – Oilers Moneyline (+160)
“Saturday’s Lock Pick” – Vegas vs. Tucson – Sugar Skulls Moneyline (-240)
“Sunday’s Pick” – Massachusetts vs. Arizona – UNDER 107.5 (-110)
Parlay Odds +603 ($10.00 would win ~$60.31)
IFL Championship Winner Odds:
Green = Odds Increased from last week
Red = Odds Decreased from last week
Frisco Fighters +300
Arizona Rattlers +300
Massachusetts Pirates +475
Bay Area Panthers +550
Quad City Steamwheelers +750
Tucson Sugar Skulls +1100
Sioux Falls Storm +1200
Northern Arizona Wranglers +1300
Green Bay Blizzard +2500
San Diego Strike Force +2500
Vegas Knight Hawks +3500*
Duke City Gladiators +4500
Iowa Barnstormers +8000*
Tulsa Oilers +12000*
(*Tulsa, Iowa, and Vegas should technically be off the table, since they are now mathematically eliminated from playoff contention after Week 15)
Good luck to all you bettors out there! Let’s print out the big bucks!!