Post by alecs on Jul 5, 2023 8:30:52 GMT -8
Happy Wednesday, IFL Fans!
Welcome to Volume XV of my "Wager Wednesday" bit, in which I examine the current landscape of the upcoming week's games, based on lines and odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. As an advocate of accountability, I will recap my results - whether genius or moronic - from the prior week as well. With that, let's see how my picks from last week turned out:
• SXF @ FRI – FRI -7 (I want to know what in the world oddsmakers were smoking when they thought dropping this line from its original -11.5 value was a good idea! Add this game to the list of several where Frisco fully demonstrated their championship upside. Sioux Falls managed just two touchdowns on a night where Frisco’s defense was simply humming, and the offense led by T.J. Edwards was untouchable. If this does turn out to be a preview of a first-round matchup, Sioux Falls has a lot to re-evaluate. Frisco tamed the Storm 56-15 for the easy, stress-free cover.) $10.00 paid $19.09
• GB @ TUL – TUL +6.5 (Trust the trends. Trust the trends. And trust the trends. I curbed my temptation to go with the moneyline for this single-game bet, a decision which turned out to be the profitable one. The Oilers actually found themselves off to a hot start, jumping out to an early 27-12 lead, but Green Bay found another gear in the second quarter and drew within one point by halftime. And stop me if you’ve heard this one before, but Tulsa had a golden opportunity to close this game out late, up by seven with the ball. Once again, it was the opposition coming up with all the clutch plays late to steal victory away from the Oilers. The Blizzard prevailed in a thrilling 58-55 affair. Not that it’s much consolation for Oilers fans, but it’s another home cover.) $10.00 paid $19.09
• VGS @ TUC – TUC -7.5 (Don’t you hate it when you make a bet where you know full well the path(s) to that wager’s demise, and the game script ends up following exactly the way you feared? Well, that’s been me trying to figure out how to win any bet involving Tucson and/or Vegas this season. This time, it wasn’t the start of the game that was the problem, with Tucson leading 27-14 at halftime and giving me five points of wiggle room. It was when Vegas made their charge, beating Tucson at their own game with a 26-7 second-half run to close the game and secure the upset win. The 40-34 win for Vegas momentarily keeps the Sugar Skulls from clinching a playoff berth.)
• MASS @ ARI – ARI -5.5 (My Bay State Buccos got off to a promising start with an opening score and a defensive stop, but Arizona made some key plays after that sequence to swing first-half momentum in their favor. That surge proved to be the difference maker, for both this game and my wager. Arizona played near perfect offense to keep the Pirates at bay, and despite doing everything they could to get back in it, the Pirates only got as close as eight points the rest of the way. The Rattlers win streak continues on to seven games thanks to a 52-43 victory, and a nine-point cover for me.) $10.00 paid $19.09
My collection of “Oops All Spread Bets” turned out to be a terrific outing this past week, with three out of four successes and Vegas/Tucson the only bet preventing me from perfection! I did not find enough standalone value with any of the moneyline or O/U options, so I kept those for the Three-Leg Parlay of the Week, which we’ll recap shortly. A set of $10 bets on each of these would have returned $57.27, translating into a net gain of $17.27 for Week 16. Overall this season, I am 47-of-85 (47-38) with a total result of roughly $104.38 of net gain. Anyone who has followed/tailed my betting in the past eleven weeks has seen convincingly positive returns, with a record of 41-28 and a net gain of $133.10 since Week 6!
The Recommended Three-Leg Parlay of Week 16 met the same fate as its predecessor the week before; failing to cash in after winning just one leg of the three needed (MASS/ARI Under 107.5 stood as that only win). We went gutsy with the Oilers moneyline on the treble, which met a heartbreaking result, and Tucson wasn’t able to win either, which I had dubbed my “Lock of the Week”. And strangely enough, both bets lost by a narrow margin (three points for GB/TUL and six points for VGS/TUC), demonstrating once again the difficulty and high-volatility nature of parlay betting. Hopefully we get some breaks our way and hit one more of these before the regular season wraps up!
YTD Breakdown of wagers by type:
Over/Under 12-of-26
Spreads: 22-of-38
Moneyline: 13-of-21
With Frisco, Tulsa, Arizona, and Vegas each on bye this week, Week 17 gives us five games with which to make our selections. Four more playoff spots are on the line between now and the end of next week, adding even more excitement and anticipation to the remaining slate. On the season’s penultimate week, can we put together another winning record and reach 50 total wins on the season? Read on to find out!
*Odds and lines shown are at time of posting. They will be updated prior to kickoff if they change; however, any net gain/loss calculations will use the original values.
Saturday 7/8: TUC (-1.5) @ DUKE | O/U 85.5 | Moneyline: TUC -115, DUKE -105
The pick: OVER 85.5
It’s game on for the final two spots in the Western Conference playoff race, and Saturday’s showdown in Rio Rancho will have a profound impact on what that picture will look like in the end. Holding down the #3 seed currently, Tucson still has the inside track to clinch, but they failed to secure their seat last week after a setback loss to Vegas at home. The Gladiators enter Week 17 two games back of the Sugar Skulls in the standings, and if both teams finish out 7-8, Duke City would possess the head-to-head tiebreaker on superior conference record. This battle promises to be highly entertaining and closely contested, if the last two meetings offered any indication (DUKE 56-49 in Week 9, TUC 47-43 in Week 13). Given that both prior matchups eclipsed this total, it’s more probable than not that these teams follow that trend once more. Smash the Over and don’t look back.
Saturday 7/8: SXF (-12.5) @ IOWA | O/U 92.5 | No Moneyline Bets available as of posting
The pick: SXF -12.5 Spread
After a confidence-shattering beatdown at the hands of the Frisco Fighters on Saturday, Sioux Falls gets a bit of a reprieve this week going up against Iowa, whom they’ve handled easily in both prior meetings this season (54-24 in Week 4, and 77-26 in Week 11). A win would move the Storm very close to a playoff spot, and at the moment they hold the tiebreaker for the East’s #4 seed over Green Bay. The challenge for Sioux Falls on Saturday will be to set the game’s standard right away, and not allow any chance for the trap game narrative to play out (similar to what happened to Massachusetts and Quad City earlier in the season in Des Moines). I’m expecting a full bounce-back effort here for the Storm, and seeing where both prior wins against the Barnstormers were by 30+ point margins, I’m delighted that I can lock this in at less than two touchdowns favoring Sioux Falls.
Saturday 7/8: GB @ QC (-6.5) | O/U 100.5 | Moneyline: GB +160, QC -190
The pick: GB +6.5 Spread
Weirdly, this season series has been dead-even in both games won and on aggregate score, with both teams hosting a game thus far and winning those contests each by seven points (QC 63-56 in Week 11, GB 45-38 in Week 13). Once again, Green Bay finds themselves in what ultimately boils down to a do-or-die situation for their playoff chances, and winning in Moline is a huge ask for any squad. The Blizzard have proven that they match up deceptively well against Quad City, though, and if enough bounces break their way, they might be able to pull this thing out. The Steamwheelers also need this game in their bid to reclaim a first-round playoff game at home, trailing Massachusetts by one game in the standings and needing some outside help to make that a reality. This was the point spread I was expecting before lines came out on Monday, so I’ll stick with my gut instinct here and take the points for a Green Bay cover.
Saturday 7/8: MASS (-4.5) @ NAZ | O/U 86.5 | Moneyline: MASS -145, NAZ +125
The pick: NAZ +125 Moneyline
In this matchup, we will see the two most recent IFL Champions battle it out, with the prospect of bringing home another trophy firmly in mind for both teams. The Wranglers sit at 6-7 and barely clinging to a playoff spot, while in the midst of a brutal six-game stretch in which they’ve managed to win just once. The main story of the struggles in Prescott Valley has been an inconsistent and turnover-prone offense which has led to two consecutive Garrett Kettle benchings. It remains unclear whether he or Nick Watson will start on Saturday, but whoever does will match up against a defense surrendering 47.3 points per game, which on paper is their friendliest matchup in about a month. Plus, the Pirates must navigate the remainder of the season without three starters on defense due to indefinite suspensions handed out by the league office after a fight broke out involving a fan during last week’s loss at Arizona. Add the ill effects of that sickening incident with the fact that Massachusetts is now 0-6 against the spread on the road (coupled with a bit of guiltless emotional hedge-betting on this fan’s part), and my pick here is fairly easy. Might even be the best value pick we're offered from here on out.
Monday 7:10: SD @ BAY (-9.5) | O/U 101.5 | No Moneyline Bets as of initial posting
The pick: OVER 101.5
I am petitioning that we declare July 10th as “Christmas in July”, because we will be treated to a Monday Night football experience on the second-to-last week of the season! For the Strike Force, a loss here means elimination, and the Panthers will make staying alive an intimidating task, as Bay Area aims to potentially re-take the #1-seed from Arizona. San Diego nearly beat the Panthers at home earlier this season in Nate Davis’s Strike Force debut, but a Panthers walk-off touchdown denied them the victory. The winner of this game may come down to which defense gets that clutch stop, as both offenses have played at an elite level since Week 7, and each easily capable of cracking 50 points on any given night. San Diego could very well need 60-plus to win this thing and stay alive, and if Dalton Sneed is back under center for the Panthers after missing the Frisco game, his return would boost this pick’s value even more. I would confidently play this up to 104.5.
Recommended 3-leg parlay:
“Saturday’s O/U” – Sioux Falls vs. Iowa – OVER 92.5 (-110)
“Saturday’s Straight-Up Pick” – Tucson vs. Duke City – Gladiators Moneyline (-105)
“Saturday’s Upset Special” – Massachusetts vs. Northern Arizona – Wranglers Moneyline (+125)
Parlay Odds +738 ($10.00 would win ~$73.86)
IFL Championship Winner Odds:
Green = Odds Increased from last week
Red = Odds Decreased from last week
Arizona Rattlers +275
Frisco Fighters +300
Massachusetts Pirates +475
Bay Area Panthers +550
Quad City Steamwheelers +800
Tucson Sugar Skulls +1400
Northern Arizona Wranglers +1500
Sioux Falls Storm +1800
Green Bay Blizzard +3000
San Diego Strike Force +3000
Duke City Gladiators +4500
Vegas Knight Hawks +5000*
(*Vegas should technically be off the table, since they are now mathematically eliminated from playoff contention after Week 16. Tulsa and Iowa have now been correctly removed from the list of Futures options on DraftKings.)
Good luck to all you bettors out there! Let’s print out the big bucks!!
Welcome to Volume XV of my "Wager Wednesday" bit, in which I examine the current landscape of the upcoming week's games, based on lines and odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. As an advocate of accountability, I will recap my results - whether genius or moronic - from the prior week as well. With that, let's see how my picks from last week turned out:
• SXF @ FRI – FRI -7 (I want to know what in the world oddsmakers were smoking when they thought dropping this line from its original -11.5 value was a good idea! Add this game to the list of several where Frisco fully demonstrated their championship upside. Sioux Falls managed just two touchdowns on a night where Frisco’s defense was simply humming, and the offense led by T.J. Edwards was untouchable. If this does turn out to be a preview of a first-round matchup, Sioux Falls has a lot to re-evaluate. Frisco tamed the Storm 56-15 for the easy, stress-free cover.) $10.00 paid $19.09
• GB @ TUL – TUL +6.5 (Trust the trends. Trust the trends. And trust the trends. I curbed my temptation to go with the moneyline for this single-game bet, a decision which turned out to be the profitable one. The Oilers actually found themselves off to a hot start, jumping out to an early 27-12 lead, but Green Bay found another gear in the second quarter and drew within one point by halftime. And stop me if you’ve heard this one before, but Tulsa had a golden opportunity to close this game out late, up by seven with the ball. Once again, it was the opposition coming up with all the clutch plays late to steal victory away from the Oilers. The Blizzard prevailed in a thrilling 58-55 affair. Not that it’s much consolation for Oilers fans, but it’s another home cover.) $10.00 paid $19.09
• VGS @ TUC – TUC -7.5 (Don’t you hate it when you make a bet where you know full well the path(s) to that wager’s demise, and the game script ends up following exactly the way you feared? Well, that’s been me trying to figure out how to win any bet involving Tucson and/or Vegas this season. This time, it wasn’t the start of the game that was the problem, with Tucson leading 27-14 at halftime and giving me five points of wiggle room. It was when Vegas made their charge, beating Tucson at their own game with a 26-7 second-half run to close the game and secure the upset win. The 40-34 win for Vegas momentarily keeps the Sugar Skulls from clinching a playoff berth.)
• MASS @ ARI – ARI -5.5 (My Bay State Buccos got off to a promising start with an opening score and a defensive stop, but Arizona made some key plays after that sequence to swing first-half momentum in their favor. That surge proved to be the difference maker, for both this game and my wager. Arizona played near perfect offense to keep the Pirates at bay, and despite doing everything they could to get back in it, the Pirates only got as close as eight points the rest of the way. The Rattlers win streak continues on to seven games thanks to a 52-43 victory, and a nine-point cover for me.) $10.00 paid $19.09
My collection of “Oops All Spread Bets” turned out to be a terrific outing this past week, with three out of four successes and Vegas/Tucson the only bet preventing me from perfection! I did not find enough standalone value with any of the moneyline or O/U options, so I kept those for the Three-Leg Parlay of the Week, which we’ll recap shortly. A set of $10 bets on each of these would have returned $57.27, translating into a net gain of $17.27 for Week 16. Overall this season, I am 47-of-85 (47-38) with a total result of roughly $104.38 of net gain. Anyone who has followed/tailed my betting in the past eleven weeks has seen convincingly positive returns, with a record of 41-28 and a net gain of $133.10 since Week 6!
The Recommended Three-Leg Parlay of Week 16 met the same fate as its predecessor the week before; failing to cash in after winning just one leg of the three needed (MASS/ARI Under 107.5 stood as that only win). We went gutsy with the Oilers moneyline on the treble, which met a heartbreaking result, and Tucson wasn’t able to win either, which I had dubbed my “Lock of the Week”. And strangely enough, both bets lost by a narrow margin (three points for GB/TUL and six points for VGS/TUC), demonstrating once again the difficulty and high-volatility nature of parlay betting. Hopefully we get some breaks our way and hit one more of these before the regular season wraps up!
YTD Breakdown of wagers by type:
Over/Under 12-of-26
Spreads: 22-of-38
Moneyline: 13-of-21
With Frisco, Tulsa, Arizona, and Vegas each on bye this week, Week 17 gives us five games with which to make our selections. Four more playoff spots are on the line between now and the end of next week, adding even more excitement and anticipation to the remaining slate. On the season’s penultimate week, can we put together another winning record and reach 50 total wins on the season? Read on to find out!
*Odds and lines shown are at time of posting. They will be updated prior to kickoff if they change; however, any net gain/loss calculations will use the original values.
Saturday 7/8: TUC (-1.5) @ DUKE | O/U 85.5 | Moneyline: TUC -115, DUKE -105
The pick: OVER 85.5
It’s game on for the final two spots in the Western Conference playoff race, and Saturday’s showdown in Rio Rancho will have a profound impact on what that picture will look like in the end. Holding down the #3 seed currently, Tucson still has the inside track to clinch, but they failed to secure their seat last week after a setback loss to Vegas at home. The Gladiators enter Week 17 two games back of the Sugar Skulls in the standings, and if both teams finish out 7-8, Duke City would possess the head-to-head tiebreaker on superior conference record. This battle promises to be highly entertaining and closely contested, if the last two meetings offered any indication (DUKE 56-49 in Week 9, TUC 47-43 in Week 13). Given that both prior matchups eclipsed this total, it’s more probable than not that these teams follow that trend once more. Smash the Over and don’t look back.
Saturday 7/8: SXF (-12.5) @ IOWA | O/U 92.5 | No Moneyline Bets available as of posting
The pick: SXF -12.5 Spread
After a confidence-shattering beatdown at the hands of the Frisco Fighters on Saturday, Sioux Falls gets a bit of a reprieve this week going up against Iowa, whom they’ve handled easily in both prior meetings this season (54-24 in Week 4, and 77-26 in Week 11). A win would move the Storm very close to a playoff spot, and at the moment they hold the tiebreaker for the East’s #4 seed over Green Bay. The challenge for Sioux Falls on Saturday will be to set the game’s standard right away, and not allow any chance for the trap game narrative to play out (similar to what happened to Massachusetts and Quad City earlier in the season in Des Moines). I’m expecting a full bounce-back effort here for the Storm, and seeing where both prior wins against the Barnstormers were by 30+ point margins, I’m delighted that I can lock this in at less than two touchdowns favoring Sioux Falls.
Saturday 7/8: GB @ QC (-6.5) | O/U 100.5 | Moneyline: GB +160, QC -190
The pick: GB +6.5 Spread
Weirdly, this season series has been dead-even in both games won and on aggregate score, with both teams hosting a game thus far and winning those contests each by seven points (QC 63-56 in Week 11, GB 45-38 in Week 13). Once again, Green Bay finds themselves in what ultimately boils down to a do-or-die situation for their playoff chances, and winning in Moline is a huge ask for any squad. The Blizzard have proven that they match up deceptively well against Quad City, though, and if enough bounces break their way, they might be able to pull this thing out. The Steamwheelers also need this game in their bid to reclaim a first-round playoff game at home, trailing Massachusetts by one game in the standings and needing some outside help to make that a reality. This was the point spread I was expecting before lines came out on Monday, so I’ll stick with my gut instinct here and take the points for a Green Bay cover.
Saturday 7/8: MASS (-4.5) @ NAZ | O/U 86.5 | Moneyline: MASS -145, NAZ +125
The pick: NAZ +125 Moneyline
In this matchup, we will see the two most recent IFL Champions battle it out, with the prospect of bringing home another trophy firmly in mind for both teams. The Wranglers sit at 6-7 and barely clinging to a playoff spot, while in the midst of a brutal six-game stretch in which they’ve managed to win just once. The main story of the struggles in Prescott Valley has been an inconsistent and turnover-prone offense which has led to two consecutive Garrett Kettle benchings. It remains unclear whether he or Nick Watson will start on Saturday, but whoever does will match up against a defense surrendering 47.3 points per game, which on paper is their friendliest matchup in about a month. Plus, the Pirates must navigate the remainder of the season without three starters on defense due to indefinite suspensions handed out by the league office after a fight broke out involving a fan during last week’s loss at Arizona. Add the ill effects of that sickening incident with the fact that Massachusetts is now 0-6 against the spread on the road (coupled with a bit of guiltless emotional hedge-betting on this fan’s part), and my pick here is fairly easy. Might even be the best value pick we're offered from here on out.
Monday 7:10: SD @ BAY (-9.5) | O/U 101.5 | No Moneyline Bets as of initial posting
The pick: OVER 101.5
I am petitioning that we declare July 10th as “Christmas in July”, because we will be treated to a Monday Night football experience on the second-to-last week of the season! For the Strike Force, a loss here means elimination, and the Panthers will make staying alive an intimidating task, as Bay Area aims to potentially re-take the #1-seed from Arizona. San Diego nearly beat the Panthers at home earlier this season in Nate Davis’s Strike Force debut, but a Panthers walk-off touchdown denied them the victory. The winner of this game may come down to which defense gets that clutch stop, as both offenses have played at an elite level since Week 7, and each easily capable of cracking 50 points on any given night. San Diego could very well need 60-plus to win this thing and stay alive, and if Dalton Sneed is back under center for the Panthers after missing the Frisco game, his return would boost this pick’s value even more. I would confidently play this up to 104.5.
Recommended 3-leg parlay:
“Saturday’s O/U” – Sioux Falls vs. Iowa – OVER 92.5 (-110)
“Saturday’s Straight-Up Pick” – Tucson vs. Duke City – Gladiators Moneyline (-105)
“Saturday’s Upset Special” – Massachusetts vs. Northern Arizona – Wranglers Moneyline (+125)
Parlay Odds +738 ($10.00 would win ~$73.86)
IFL Championship Winner Odds:
Green = Odds Increased from last week
Red = Odds Decreased from last week
Arizona Rattlers +275
Frisco Fighters +300
Massachusetts Pirates +475
Bay Area Panthers +550
Quad City Steamwheelers +800
Tucson Sugar Skulls +1400
Northern Arizona Wranglers +1500
Sioux Falls Storm +1800
Green Bay Blizzard +3000
San Diego Strike Force +3000
Duke City Gladiators +4500
Vegas Knight Hawks +5000*
(*Vegas should technically be off the table, since they are now mathematically eliminated from playoff contention after Week 16. Tulsa and Iowa have now been correctly removed from the list of Futures options on DraftKings.)
Good luck to all you bettors out there! Let’s print out the big bucks!!