Post by alecs on Jul 12, 2023 11:18:45 GMT -8
Happy Wednesday, IFL Fans!
Welcome to Volume XVI of my "Wager Wednesday" bit, in which I examine the current landscape of the upcoming week's games, based on lines and odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. As an advocate of accountability, I will recap my results - whether genius or moronic - from the prior week as well. With that, let's see how my picks from last week turned out:
• TUC @ DUKE – OVER 85.5 (These two teams simply lit it up on Saturday, a spitting image of the first matchup in Albuquerque between the Skulls and Gladiators earlier this season. Both offenses were on fire, scoring touchdowns at will, and the only hiccup was a late Charles McCullum interception which ultimately ended Duke City’s bid to stay alive in the playoff race. Tucson improves their road record to a wild 6-1 record – and clinches a playoff spot - thanks to a 59-51 shootout victory.) $10.00 paid $19.09
• SXF @ IOWA – SXF -12.5 (Someone from the Barnstormers crowd must have stumbled upon last week’s post, because they definitely took this one personally. Losing the previous two meetings to Sioux Falls by 30 and 41 points, Iowa gave the Storm everything they could handle this time, sticking around through the whole 60 minutes and offering at least a chance at a last-second upset. Incredibly, the final play of the game was a lateral bonanza by Iowa, the type of goofy play that has seen several bets swing one way or the other. Unfortunately for me, the ball found its way over the boards on a lateral, which killed any hope for a Sioux Falls defensive TD and backdoor cover. The Storm will take the 54-47 win, though, and could find themselves earning a home playoff game if all goes well against a suddenly reeling Massachusetts team next week, plus some help from Tulsa.)
• GB @ QC – GB +6.5 (It only took the first two plays of the game for this bet to run into trouble. Quad City ran the opening kickoff back for a touchdown, then immediately recovered a Green Bay fumbled kickoff in the endzone, so the Steamwheelers had a 14-0 advantage before the game ever had a chance to really start. Green Bay did well to stay close on a couple different occasions, but the myriad of turnovers on offense was too much to overcome. This bet also had a small chance for a backdoor cover, but Green Bay’s last garbage time TD came with no time remaining, so no point after was attempted. Nonetheless, this stands as a playoff-clinching 47-39 win for Quad City.)
• MASS @ NAZ – NAZ +125 (A very weird game, to say the least. It was Groundhog Day for the Pirates, who once again ran its first few possessions to perfection, taking an early 14-0 lead at Prescott Valley. But armed with the power of God, anime, and dropkicks, the Wranglers strung together a 37-unanswered point run and eventually chased Anthony Russo out of the ballgame. The Pirates did make it interesting with a couple successful possessions engineered by Alejandro Bennifield, but the defense could not make a stop of a 3rd-and-7 late in the game, which ended a spirited comeback bid. The Wranglers took this matchup 37-32.) $10.00 paid $22.50
• SD @ BAY – OVER 101.5 (This bet could have very well been game-scripted to go under, especially if Bay Area has extended its blowout lead by one more possession during the early stages of the second half. Fortunately, for me, that did not come to pass. The Panthers simply kept piling up touchdown after touchdown, and San Diego attempted to play catchup as best they could, but they made far too many mistakes in what was a do-or-die game. Bay Area turned the Strike Force over five times in a 75-40 rout to end San Diego’s season. The 115 total points allowed over bettors to celebrate a Monday Night cash out!) $10.00 paid $19.09
Thanks to Monday night’s shootout, we put together a fourth consecutive winning week, making three correct selections compared to two duds. Our successes this week were highlighted by the latest installment of “Moneyline Magic”, thanks to the Wranglers defeating the Pirates 37-32 for a cool +125 payout! A set of $10 bets on each of these would have returned $60.68, translating into a net gain of $10.68. Overall this season, I am 50-of-90 (50-40) with a total result of roughly $115.06 of net gain. Anyone who has followed/tailed my betting in the past twelve weeks has seen convincingly positive returns, with a record of 44-30 and a net gain of $143.78 since Week 6!
The Recommended Three-Leg Parlay of Week 17 managed two successful picks (NAZ Moneyline and SXF/IOWA Over 92.5), but ultimately got downed by the incorrect pick of Duke City moneyline. A close call on a game that was once again decided by a single possession, but unfortunately these parlays have to be perfect in order to reap any benefits. Maybe the regular season finale will allow to cash one more of these!
YTD Breakdown of wagers by type:
Over/Under 14-of-28
Spreads: 22-of-40
Moneyline: 14-of-22
This is it. Week 18 puts all 14 teams in action, six of whom will be playing their final game of 2023 this weekend. The remaining eight teams have all earned their spot for a shot at the League Championship, with official seeding left to finalize. The Eastern Conference is very interesting, with Sioux Falls, Massachusetts, and Quad City in a three-team race for a home playoff game. And out West, Arizona and Bay Area battle for the #1 seed, while Tucson and Northern Arizona tussle for the #3 seed. To bring you up to speed with seeding scenarios, I’ve created this list of results based on all possible outcomes:
EASTERN CONFERENCE: TO DETERMINE SEEDS 2, 3, AND 4
• Massachusetts beats Sioux Falls + Quad City Wins
MASS #2 at 10-5 (72.7 East win%)
QC #3 at 10-5 (69.2 East win%)
SXF #4 at 8-7
• Massachusetts beats Sioux Falls + Quad City Loses
MASS #2 at 10-5
QC #3 at 9-6
SXF #4 at 8-7
• Sioux Falls beats Massachusetts + Quad City Wins
QC #2 at 10-5
SXF #3 at 9-6 (64.3 East win%)
MASS #4 at 9-6 (63.6 East win%)
• Sioux Falls beats Massachusetts + Quad City Loses
SXF #2 at 9-6 (64.3 East win%)
MASS #3 at 9-6 (63.6 East win%)
QC #4 at 9-6 (61.5 East win%)
WESTERN CONFERENCE: TO DETERMINE SEEDS 1, 2, 3, AND 4
• If Arizona beats NAZ (regardless of BAY & TUC outcomes)
ARI #1
BAY #2
TUC #3
NAZ #4
• NAZ beats Arizona, Bay Area Wins, Tucson Wins
BAY #1 at 10-5 (75.0 West win%)
ARI #2 at 10-5 (63.6 West win%)
TUC #3 at 9-6
NAZ #4 at 8-7
• NAZ beats Arizona, Bay Area Wins, Tucson Loses
BAY #1 at 10-5 (75.0 West win%)
ARI #2 at 10-5 (63.6 West win%)
NAZ #3 at 8-7 (holds strength of schedule tiebreaker over TUC entering Week 18)
TUC #4 at 8-7
• NAZ beats Arizona, Bay Area Loses, Tucson Wins
ARI #1 at 10-5
BAY #2 at 9-6 (66.7 West win%)
TUC #3 at 9-6 (53.8 West win%)
NAZ #4 at 8-7
• NAZ beats Arizona, Bay Area Loses, Tucson Loses
ARI #1 at 10-5
BAY #2 at 9-6
NAZ #3 at 8-7 (holds strength of schedule tiebreaker over TUC entering Week 18)
TUC #4 at 8-7
Now that we know what’s at stake for the eight participating playoff teams, let’s dive in to the final seven games of the 2023 regular season. Does that fabled five-win week make its long-awaited appearance at the very end? Read on to find out!
*Odds and lines shown are at time of posting. They will be updated prior to kickoff if they change; however, any net gain/loss calculations will use the original values.
Saturday 7/15: FRI (-13.5) @ IOWA | O/U 92.5 | No Moneyline Bets available as of posting
The pick: IOWA +13.5 Spread
This is going to be one of those formality final-week football games that is extremely tricky to analyze, because the result has absolutely no bearing on the order of the standings. Frisco knows they’re already the top seed entering the playoffs, so I can’t imagine that their starters play their full allotment of snaps. Iowa doesn’t benefit from a win, either, but they have the advantage of not having to bubble-wrap their top players for a playoff push. And Iowa has played relatively well in its last two games at home, which included the infamous trap-game 80-41 victory against the Steamwheelers and a narrow seven-point loss to Sioux Falls last week (where they were 12.5-point underdogs). And Frisco’s largest road win this season was by eight points (not counting their season-opening 46-point beatdown of Green Bay). Take advantage of the situation at hand and take the two touchdowns of wiggle room on the Barnstormers in Des Moines.
Saturday 7/15: MASS (-1) @ SXF | O/U 97.5 | Moneyline: MASS -115, SXF -105
The pick: SXF -105 Moneyline (locked in earlier today at +100)
With last week’s loss to the Wranglers, the Pirates are now a baffling 0-7 against the spread as the road team in 2023. They have clearly failed to find the same momentum outside of the DCU Center and now have to win this road game to even have a chance to play next week in front of their home fans in the Bay State. Sioux Falls, meanwhile, could get a chance to steal that #2 seed away if they can take down the Pirates, and the Storm have had some really good showings at home this season. The Pirates will also have to decide on whether to start Alejandro Bennifield or the suddenly struggling Anthony Russo at quarterback, a decision that won’t be easy for the coaching staff to make. Unless the Pirates can find a sudden surge within the 60 minutes, the Storm are certainly capable of capitalizing. I’ve said all year long to “Trust the Trends” (patent pending), and my mind will outweigh my heart and pick the Storm moneyline option. I'm glad I acted early on this wager, as the odds have shifted slightly. Sioux Falls now has 5% juice, while a bet on Massachusetts lays 15 cents on the dollar.
Saturday 7/15: QC (-7) @ TUL | O/U 94.5 | Moneyline: QC -230, TUL +195
The pick: TUL +7 Spread
This is the final opportunity for the expansion Oilers to register what would be their only home win of their inaugural season, and a matchup against a Quad City team that easily defeated them 68-42 in the first ever game at BOK Center in Week 5 will decide whether the Oilers faithful can finally celebrate. Since that lopsided defeat, though, every Oilers home game has been decided by one possession. They’ve stacked up well against some high-quality opponents, but have yet to convert any of those valiant efforts into victories. For Quad City, their only path to a home playoff game involves them defeating the Oilers on Saturday, and on paper it should be a victory for them. Here’s another instance where the Tulsa moneyline is so tantalizing, even with a mouthwatering +195 payout potential. But as I did a couple weeks ago, I’ll exercise restraint and select the home cover instead.
Saturday 7/15: NAZ @ ARI (-10.5) | O/U 99.5 | No Moneyline Bets available as of posting
The pick: ARI -10.5 Spread
There’s simply no stopping the Arizona Rattlers right now, with a league-high seven game winning streak and the league’s most explosive offense led by Drew Powell, who is re-gaining MVP consideration despite missing the early part of the season with injury. If the same holds true on Saturday, and that Rattlers streak extends to eight, Northern Arizona’s title defense will once again feature a win-or-go-home bout at the Snake Pit next week in the first round. Arizona also has an astounding streak of nine straight games in which they’ve scored at least 52 points each time out, which gives me heightened confidence in laying double-digit points on them. What cements my pick here is how noticeably improved the Rattlers defense has performed over the course of this streak, forcing several takeaways to make the offense’s life that much easier. And the Rattlers of course, will want to lock down the #1 seed in the West, so this should be a no-nonsense type of game for them where they take care of business convincingly.
Saturday 7/15: GB @ TUC (-5.5) | O/U 90.5 | Moneyline: GB +140, TUC -165
The pick: GB +140 Moneyline
Our only inter-conference matchup of the week offers a unique storyline, with Tucson hosting a Green Bay Blizzard team that was eliminated from contention in last week’s loss at Quad City. Despite that, the Blizzard will try to end their surprisingly solid season above the .500 mark, and they’ll play a Sugar Skulls team that’s somehow 2-5 in the Bone Yard (and 6-1 outside of Tucson). I’m very curious to find out how Tucson intends to play this game, as they’ve got road wins against both of their projected first round opponents on their resume this season (Arizona & Bay Area). For what it’s worth, a Tucson win would keep them at the #3 spot, offering at least a prayer at hosting a potential Western Conference Final. I can’t ignore the track record of this season, though, and Green Bay certainly has the talent to take this game. At almost plus half a dollar, it's too good of value to pass up.
Saturday 7/15: VGS @ SD (-4.5) | O/U 94.5 | Moneyline: VGS +130, SD -150
The pick: OVER 94.5
Here’s the lone matchup of the Week 18 slate with both contestants eliminated from the playoff picture. That to me makes it the game with the most volatility for its range of outcomes, as both teams will likely play unchained in a bid for a season-ending win to help build momentum heading into 2024. The winner of this game will also stay out of the Western Conference cellar, for what that’s worth. I like the idea of this game unfolding as a shootout, especially if Da’Quan Neal and Nate Davis get the starts, per usual, and no other significant changes to the starting lineups are made. It’s hard to bet against either of these offenses considering both their ceilings, so here’s another Over pick for your viewing pleasure!
Sunday 7/16: BAY (-7.5) @ DUKE | O/U 103.5 | Moneyline: BAY -215, DUKE +185
The pick: UNDER 103.5
I’ll be honest, I’m not crazy about locking my pick in now with this game taking place on Sunday, because Saturday’s NAZ/Arizona outcome will affect whether Bay Area can claim the top seed in the West. But alas, that’s the way we’ve been doing these bets all season long, so I won’t dare deviate from that now. If Arizona claims victory over the Wranglers (80% likelihood according to my model), Bay Area may elect to give their starters as much rest as possible, which could pave the way for Felix Harper to draw the start at quarterback for the Panthers, among other personnel changes. I wouldn’t expect another 60+ point outburst if that turns out to be the gameplan, as Bay Area would likely have the presence of mind to not overexert themselves on what would ultimately be a meaningless game. I guarantee that these lines and totals will change drastically depending on the result of Saturday’s Wranglers/Rattlers contest. For the purposes of this wager, I’ll play the percentages and predict that Arizona clinches the #1 seed prior to this game, which would almost certainly lower the O/U total from its opening amount, which is already sky high to begin with.
Recommended 3-leg parlay:
“Saturday’s Spread Pick” – Green Bay vs. Tucson – Blizzard +5.5 Spread (-110)
“Saturday’s Upset Special” – Massachusetts vs. Sioux Falls - Storm Moneyline (+100)
“Sunday’s Pick” – Bay Area vs. Duke City – Panthers -7.5 (-110)
Parlay Odds +628 ($10.00 would win ~$62.89)
IFL Championship Winner Odds:
Green = Odds Increased from last week
Red = Odds Decreased from last week
Arizona Rattlers +225
Frisco Fighters +245
Massachusetts Pirates +550
Bay Area Panthers +550
Quad City Steamwheelers +750
Tucson Sugar Skulls +1800
Northern Arizona Wranglers +2000
Sioux Falls Storm +2500
Good luck to all you bettors out there! Let’s print out the big bucks!!
UPDATED 7/12/2023 - 9:55 PM ET
Welcome to Volume XVI of my "Wager Wednesday" bit, in which I examine the current landscape of the upcoming week's games, based on lines and odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. As an advocate of accountability, I will recap my results - whether genius or moronic - from the prior week as well. With that, let's see how my picks from last week turned out:
• TUC @ DUKE – OVER 85.5 (These two teams simply lit it up on Saturday, a spitting image of the first matchup in Albuquerque between the Skulls and Gladiators earlier this season. Both offenses were on fire, scoring touchdowns at will, and the only hiccup was a late Charles McCullum interception which ultimately ended Duke City’s bid to stay alive in the playoff race. Tucson improves their road record to a wild 6-1 record – and clinches a playoff spot - thanks to a 59-51 shootout victory.) $10.00 paid $19.09
• SXF @ IOWA – SXF -12.5 (Someone from the Barnstormers crowd must have stumbled upon last week’s post, because they definitely took this one personally. Losing the previous two meetings to Sioux Falls by 30 and 41 points, Iowa gave the Storm everything they could handle this time, sticking around through the whole 60 minutes and offering at least a chance at a last-second upset. Incredibly, the final play of the game was a lateral bonanza by Iowa, the type of goofy play that has seen several bets swing one way or the other. Unfortunately for me, the ball found its way over the boards on a lateral, which killed any hope for a Sioux Falls defensive TD and backdoor cover. The Storm will take the 54-47 win, though, and could find themselves earning a home playoff game if all goes well against a suddenly reeling Massachusetts team next week, plus some help from Tulsa.)
• GB @ QC – GB +6.5 (It only took the first two plays of the game for this bet to run into trouble. Quad City ran the opening kickoff back for a touchdown, then immediately recovered a Green Bay fumbled kickoff in the endzone, so the Steamwheelers had a 14-0 advantage before the game ever had a chance to really start. Green Bay did well to stay close on a couple different occasions, but the myriad of turnovers on offense was too much to overcome. This bet also had a small chance for a backdoor cover, but Green Bay’s last garbage time TD came with no time remaining, so no point after was attempted. Nonetheless, this stands as a playoff-clinching 47-39 win for Quad City.)
• MASS @ NAZ – NAZ +125 (A very weird game, to say the least. It was Groundhog Day for the Pirates, who once again ran its first few possessions to perfection, taking an early 14-0 lead at Prescott Valley. But armed with the power of God, anime, and dropkicks, the Wranglers strung together a 37-unanswered point run and eventually chased Anthony Russo out of the ballgame. The Pirates did make it interesting with a couple successful possessions engineered by Alejandro Bennifield, but the defense could not make a stop of a 3rd-and-7 late in the game, which ended a spirited comeback bid. The Wranglers took this matchup 37-32.) $10.00 paid $22.50
• SD @ BAY – OVER 101.5 (This bet could have very well been game-scripted to go under, especially if Bay Area has extended its blowout lead by one more possession during the early stages of the second half. Fortunately, for me, that did not come to pass. The Panthers simply kept piling up touchdown after touchdown, and San Diego attempted to play catchup as best they could, but they made far too many mistakes in what was a do-or-die game. Bay Area turned the Strike Force over five times in a 75-40 rout to end San Diego’s season. The 115 total points allowed over bettors to celebrate a Monday Night cash out!) $10.00 paid $19.09
Thanks to Monday night’s shootout, we put together a fourth consecutive winning week, making three correct selections compared to two duds. Our successes this week were highlighted by the latest installment of “Moneyline Magic”, thanks to the Wranglers defeating the Pirates 37-32 for a cool +125 payout! A set of $10 bets on each of these would have returned $60.68, translating into a net gain of $10.68. Overall this season, I am 50-of-90 (50-40) with a total result of roughly $115.06 of net gain. Anyone who has followed/tailed my betting in the past twelve weeks has seen convincingly positive returns, with a record of 44-30 and a net gain of $143.78 since Week 6!
The Recommended Three-Leg Parlay of Week 17 managed two successful picks (NAZ Moneyline and SXF/IOWA Over 92.5), but ultimately got downed by the incorrect pick of Duke City moneyline. A close call on a game that was once again decided by a single possession, but unfortunately these parlays have to be perfect in order to reap any benefits. Maybe the regular season finale will allow to cash one more of these!
YTD Breakdown of wagers by type:
Over/Under 14-of-28
Spreads: 22-of-40
Moneyline: 14-of-22
This is it. Week 18 puts all 14 teams in action, six of whom will be playing their final game of 2023 this weekend. The remaining eight teams have all earned their spot for a shot at the League Championship, with official seeding left to finalize. The Eastern Conference is very interesting, with Sioux Falls, Massachusetts, and Quad City in a three-team race for a home playoff game. And out West, Arizona and Bay Area battle for the #1 seed, while Tucson and Northern Arizona tussle for the #3 seed. To bring you up to speed with seeding scenarios, I’ve created this list of results based on all possible outcomes:
EASTERN CONFERENCE: TO DETERMINE SEEDS 2, 3, AND 4
• Massachusetts beats Sioux Falls + Quad City Wins
MASS #2 at 10-5 (72.7 East win%)
QC #3 at 10-5 (69.2 East win%)
SXF #4 at 8-7
• Massachusetts beats Sioux Falls + Quad City Loses
MASS #2 at 10-5
QC #3 at 9-6
SXF #4 at 8-7
• Sioux Falls beats Massachusetts + Quad City Wins
QC #2 at 10-5
SXF #3 at 9-6 (64.3 East win%)
MASS #4 at 9-6 (63.6 East win%)
• Sioux Falls beats Massachusetts + Quad City Loses
SXF #2 at 9-6 (64.3 East win%)
MASS #3 at 9-6 (63.6 East win%)
QC #4 at 9-6 (61.5 East win%)
WESTERN CONFERENCE: TO DETERMINE SEEDS 1, 2, 3, AND 4
• If Arizona beats NAZ (regardless of BAY & TUC outcomes)
ARI #1
BAY #2
TUC #3
NAZ #4
• NAZ beats Arizona, Bay Area Wins, Tucson Wins
BAY #1 at 10-5 (75.0 West win%)
ARI #2 at 10-5 (63.6 West win%)
TUC #3 at 9-6
NAZ #4 at 8-7
• NAZ beats Arizona, Bay Area Wins, Tucson Loses
BAY #1 at 10-5 (75.0 West win%)
ARI #2 at 10-5 (63.6 West win%)
NAZ #3 at 8-7 (holds strength of schedule tiebreaker over TUC entering Week 18)
TUC #4 at 8-7
• NAZ beats Arizona, Bay Area Loses, Tucson Wins
ARI #1 at 10-5
BAY #2 at 9-6 (66.7 West win%)
TUC #3 at 9-6 (53.8 West win%)
NAZ #4 at 8-7
• NAZ beats Arizona, Bay Area Loses, Tucson Loses
ARI #1 at 10-5
BAY #2 at 9-6
NAZ #3 at 8-7 (holds strength of schedule tiebreaker over TUC entering Week 18)
TUC #4 at 8-7
Now that we know what’s at stake for the eight participating playoff teams, let’s dive in to the final seven games of the 2023 regular season. Does that fabled five-win week make its long-awaited appearance at the very end? Read on to find out!
*Odds and lines shown are at time of posting. They will be updated prior to kickoff if they change; however, any net gain/loss calculations will use the original values.
Saturday 7/15: FRI (-13.5) @ IOWA | O/U 92.5 | No Moneyline Bets available as of posting
The pick: IOWA +13.5 Spread
This is going to be one of those formality final-week football games that is extremely tricky to analyze, because the result has absolutely no bearing on the order of the standings. Frisco knows they’re already the top seed entering the playoffs, so I can’t imagine that their starters play their full allotment of snaps. Iowa doesn’t benefit from a win, either, but they have the advantage of not having to bubble-wrap their top players for a playoff push. And Iowa has played relatively well in its last two games at home, which included the infamous trap-game 80-41 victory against the Steamwheelers and a narrow seven-point loss to Sioux Falls last week (where they were 12.5-point underdogs). And Frisco’s largest road win this season was by eight points (not counting their season-opening 46-point beatdown of Green Bay). Take advantage of the situation at hand and take the two touchdowns of wiggle room on the Barnstormers in Des Moines.
Saturday 7/15: MASS (-1) @ SXF | O/U 97.5 | Moneyline: MASS -115, SXF -105
The pick: SXF -105 Moneyline (locked in earlier today at +100)
With last week’s loss to the Wranglers, the Pirates are now a baffling 0-7 against the spread as the road team in 2023. They have clearly failed to find the same momentum outside of the DCU Center and now have to win this road game to even have a chance to play next week in front of their home fans in the Bay State. Sioux Falls, meanwhile, could get a chance to steal that #2 seed away if they can take down the Pirates, and the Storm have had some really good showings at home this season. The Pirates will also have to decide on whether to start Alejandro Bennifield or the suddenly struggling Anthony Russo at quarterback, a decision that won’t be easy for the coaching staff to make. Unless the Pirates can find a sudden surge within the 60 minutes, the Storm are certainly capable of capitalizing. I’ve said all year long to “Trust the Trends” (patent pending), and my mind will outweigh my heart and pick the Storm moneyline option. I'm glad I acted early on this wager, as the odds have shifted slightly. Sioux Falls now has 5% juice, while a bet on Massachusetts lays 15 cents on the dollar.
Saturday 7/15: QC (-7) @ TUL | O/U 94.5 | Moneyline: QC -230, TUL +195
The pick: TUL +7 Spread
This is the final opportunity for the expansion Oilers to register what would be their only home win of their inaugural season, and a matchup against a Quad City team that easily defeated them 68-42 in the first ever game at BOK Center in Week 5 will decide whether the Oilers faithful can finally celebrate. Since that lopsided defeat, though, every Oilers home game has been decided by one possession. They’ve stacked up well against some high-quality opponents, but have yet to convert any of those valiant efforts into victories. For Quad City, their only path to a home playoff game involves them defeating the Oilers on Saturday, and on paper it should be a victory for them. Here’s another instance where the Tulsa moneyline is so tantalizing, even with a mouthwatering +195 payout potential. But as I did a couple weeks ago, I’ll exercise restraint and select the home cover instead.
Saturday 7/15: NAZ @ ARI (-10.5) | O/U 99.5 | No Moneyline Bets available as of posting
The pick: ARI -10.5 Spread
There’s simply no stopping the Arizona Rattlers right now, with a league-high seven game winning streak and the league’s most explosive offense led by Drew Powell, who is re-gaining MVP consideration despite missing the early part of the season with injury. If the same holds true on Saturday, and that Rattlers streak extends to eight, Northern Arizona’s title defense will once again feature a win-or-go-home bout at the Snake Pit next week in the first round. Arizona also has an astounding streak of nine straight games in which they’ve scored at least 52 points each time out, which gives me heightened confidence in laying double-digit points on them. What cements my pick here is how noticeably improved the Rattlers defense has performed over the course of this streak, forcing several takeaways to make the offense’s life that much easier. And the Rattlers of course, will want to lock down the #1 seed in the West, so this should be a no-nonsense type of game for them where they take care of business convincingly.
Saturday 7/15: GB @ TUC (-5.5) | O/U 90.5 | Moneyline: GB +140, TUC -165
The pick: GB +140 Moneyline
Our only inter-conference matchup of the week offers a unique storyline, with Tucson hosting a Green Bay Blizzard team that was eliminated from contention in last week’s loss at Quad City. Despite that, the Blizzard will try to end their surprisingly solid season above the .500 mark, and they’ll play a Sugar Skulls team that’s somehow 2-5 in the Bone Yard (and 6-1 outside of Tucson). I’m very curious to find out how Tucson intends to play this game, as they’ve got road wins against both of their projected first round opponents on their resume this season (Arizona & Bay Area). For what it’s worth, a Tucson win would keep them at the #3 spot, offering at least a prayer at hosting a potential Western Conference Final. I can’t ignore the track record of this season, though, and Green Bay certainly has the talent to take this game. At almost plus half a dollar, it's too good of value to pass up.
Saturday 7/15: VGS @ SD (-4.5) | O/U 94.5 | Moneyline: VGS +130, SD -150
The pick: OVER 94.5
Here’s the lone matchup of the Week 18 slate with both contestants eliminated from the playoff picture. That to me makes it the game with the most volatility for its range of outcomes, as both teams will likely play unchained in a bid for a season-ending win to help build momentum heading into 2024. The winner of this game will also stay out of the Western Conference cellar, for what that’s worth. I like the idea of this game unfolding as a shootout, especially if Da’Quan Neal and Nate Davis get the starts, per usual, and no other significant changes to the starting lineups are made. It’s hard to bet against either of these offenses considering both their ceilings, so here’s another Over pick for your viewing pleasure!
Sunday 7/16: BAY (-7.5) @ DUKE | O/U 103.5 | Moneyline: BAY -215, DUKE +185
The pick: UNDER 103.5
I’ll be honest, I’m not crazy about locking my pick in now with this game taking place on Sunday, because Saturday’s NAZ/Arizona outcome will affect whether Bay Area can claim the top seed in the West. But alas, that’s the way we’ve been doing these bets all season long, so I won’t dare deviate from that now. If Arizona claims victory over the Wranglers (80% likelihood according to my model), Bay Area may elect to give their starters as much rest as possible, which could pave the way for Felix Harper to draw the start at quarterback for the Panthers, among other personnel changes. I wouldn’t expect another 60+ point outburst if that turns out to be the gameplan, as Bay Area would likely have the presence of mind to not overexert themselves on what would ultimately be a meaningless game. I guarantee that these lines and totals will change drastically depending on the result of Saturday’s Wranglers/Rattlers contest. For the purposes of this wager, I’ll play the percentages and predict that Arizona clinches the #1 seed prior to this game, which would almost certainly lower the O/U total from its opening amount, which is already sky high to begin with.
Recommended 3-leg parlay:
“Saturday’s Spread Pick” – Green Bay vs. Tucson – Blizzard +5.5 Spread (-110)
“Saturday’s Upset Special” – Massachusetts vs. Sioux Falls - Storm Moneyline (+100)
“Sunday’s Pick” – Bay Area vs. Duke City – Panthers -7.5 (-110)
Parlay Odds +628 ($10.00 would win ~$62.89)
IFL Championship Winner Odds:
Green = Odds Increased from last week
Red = Odds Decreased from last week
Arizona Rattlers +225
Frisco Fighters +245
Massachusetts Pirates +550
Bay Area Panthers +550
Quad City Steamwheelers +750
Tucson Sugar Skulls +1800
Northern Arizona Wranglers +2000
Sioux Falls Storm +2500
Good luck to all you bettors out there! Let’s print out the big bucks!!
UPDATED 7/12/2023 - 9:55 PM ET