Post by alecs on Jul 19, 2023 8:36:05 GMT -8
Happy Wednesday, IFL Fans!
Welcome to Volume XVII of my "Wager Wednesday" bit, in which I examine the current landscape of the upcoming week's games, based on lines and odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. As an advocate of accountability, I will recap my results - whether genius or moronic - from the prior week as well. With that, let's see how my picks from last week turned out:
• FRI @ IOWA – IOWA +13.5 (Iowa held up respectably well in this game, especially considering that Frisco’s starters played far more of the game than I had originally predicted. Winning the bet was made tricky by a few key plays, highlighted by an inexplicable Hail Mary touchdown by the Fighters at the first half gun. Despite that mistake and a few others, Iowa actually had the ball, down by 16, with a shot at the backdoor cover. They were turned over on downs, however, and Frisco capped its regular season with a 13th victory by a 51-35 final score, covering the two-touchdown spread.)
• MASS @ SXF – SXF +100 (This was a game that all but confirmed that this matchup is playoff worthy – both literally and figuratively – and earned a late entry to “Game of the Year” consideration. It was about as evenly matched up as it could get, though many could argue that all the pivotal calls were convincingly one-sided – including a crucial defensive holding penalty against Massachusetts that wiped out what would have been the game-clinching stop on a Storm 4th down. Call this one a betting bailout if you wish, but Sioux Falls still had to find the endzone on that drive, which would hold as the game-winner. The Storm steal away the second seed and have played themselves into a rematch with the Pirates in this week’s quarterfinal, with the 62-59 win.) $10.00 paid $20.00
• QC @ TUL – TUL +7 (That sound you hear outside is the entire city of Tulsa lighting illegal fireworks in jovial celebration. Rather than the usual one-possession, down-to-the-wire type of games we’re used to seeing at BOK Center, Tulsa composed a fantastic second half of football, exacting revenge for their prior loss to the Steamwheelers and playing spoiler for Quad City’s hopes of hosting a playoff game in 2023. A 23-6 run in the final 30 minutes paved the way for the Oilers’ first home win in franchise history, with 56-35 as the final score. Going bold with the Tulsa moneyline would have been quite sweet, but a win is a win either way!) $10.00 paid $19.09
• NAZ @ ARI – ARI -10.5 (Much like the first meeting in the Snake Pit back in Week 10, this game started with a convincing first half from the championship favorite Rattlers, a stretch which included a 35-0 run at one point. The Wranglers did not lie down, though, scoring the first 14 points of the third quarter and suddenly bringing the bet’s status back in limbo. Two pivotal moments late in the game defined this bet – the first was Kevin Guy’s unusual decision to settle for a field goal on a short 4th-and-goal, which gave the Rattlers a 16-point lead. The second was what ultimately decided the bet, as Northern Arizona waved the white flag rather than going for a meaningless garbage time touchdown, to get an early start in preparing for the rematch next week. In any event, the Rattlers’ 55-39 win covers the spread, as predicted.) $10.00 paid $19.09
• GB @ TUC – GB +140 (I’m fairly certain that any Sugar Skulls fan will tell you that the game they played against Green Bay is their ideal blueprint to victory – or pretty close to it. After an opening touchdown by the Blizzard, Tucson kept them out of the endzone for the remainder of the half and built a 21-10 lead by halftime. That was all the cushion they needed to grind the rest of the game out with their dominant running scheme, for which Green Bay had no answer. The Sugar Skulls will now prepare for a trip out to San Jose to begin its playoff bid, after taking out the Blizzard 48-39 in a game that was more dominant from Tucson than the final score suggests.)
• VGS @ SD – OVER 94.5 (The game didn’t have as fast of a pace as what I had in mind, but offensive efficiency ruled the day in San Diego. The first defensive stand did not occur until the third quarter, but even still, the bet came down to San Diego’s final possession, at which point they held a 51-42 lead. Alarmingly, the Strike Force called three consecutive passing plays while inside Vegas’s one-yard line – all incomplete passes by Rudy Johnson – before finally dialing a run for him inside the one-minute warning to take this wager to the finish line. In a battle of wills and bragging rights, the Strike Force defended home turf and beat the Knight Hawks, 58-42, for a 100-point total.) $10.00 paid $19.09
• BAY @ DUKE – UNDER 103.5 (A bit of an anticlimactic way to clinch our first ever five-win week if you ask me, but absolutely no question we’ll take it! Predictably, this game lacked the level of excitement that we’re used to seeing from a typical IFL game, largely due to the NAZ/Arizona outcome from the night before nullifying any potential impact this game could have had on the playoff picture. We saw just 24 first-half points scored, and although the tempo picked up a little bit in the second half, it was nowhere close to hitting the century mark at any point. Bay Area took care of the Gladiators in no-nonsense fashion, winning 44-35, for a 79-point total that fell way short of this absurd projection. Pour one out for anyone who locked in Bay Area at a -9.5 spread right before kickoff, as a garbage-time touchdown by Duke City caused the dreaded “by-the-hook” loss for this group.) $10.00 paid $19.09
Well, it took the entirety of the regular season, but we FINALLY hit the five-win goal for Week 18!! It could have been an even better outing too, as Iowa had an opportunity for a late touchdown to cover but couldn’t quite convert. “Moneyline Magic” continues, once again at the expense of my hometown Pirates, who lost to the Storm in Saturday’s 62-59 epic, with Sioux Falls providing me an even money +100 payout that I was able to lock in before the selection went to the dark side (minus odds). A set of $10 bets on each of these would have returned $96.36, translating into a net gain of $26.36 for Week 18. Overall this season, I am 55-of-97 (55-42) with a total result of roughly $141.42 of net gain. After a rough 6-10 start to the season in the first three weeks of this series, we hit a spectacular stride the rest of the way, posting a record of 49-32 and a net gain of $170.15 since Week 6! During that 13-week span, we also had winning records in every week except for two, one of which was an even 3-3 record in Week 12, and the other a near-miss 3-4 record in Week 13.
Just like last week, the Recommended Three-Leg Parlay of Week 18 came up one pick short, with the Blizzard failing to cover a 5.5-point underdog spread at Tucson. The other two picks (Storm Moneyline and Bay Area -7.5 spread) went precisely according to plan. Again, we were very agonizingly close (four points away in the case of GB/TUC) to the super payday, but sadly it was not to be. Here’s to hoping the playoffs can provide that push that allows us at least one more successful trifecta before 2023 is all said and done!
YTD Breakdown of wagers by type:
Over/Under: 16-of-30 (53.3% success rate, +$5.45 net profit)
Spreads: 24-of-43 (55.8% success rate, +$28.18 net profit)
Moneyline: 15-of-24 (62.5% success rate, +$107.79 net profit)
Fourteen teams began this season back in March. Eight teams now remain to slug it out for the right to be crowned 2023 IFL Champions. Each team’s odyssey begins this weekend, and whoever can whip together a three-game win streak between now and August 5th will take home the hardware in Henderson. Can the Rattlers and/or Fighters atone for their near-misses from last season and secure spots in the Title Game? Or will there be dark horses that impose their will and steal the show, much like Quad City and NAZ did last year as underdogs? First round playoff action is quickly upon us, read on to find out the selections I’m making!
*Odds and lines shown are at time of posting. They will be updated prior to kickoff if they change; however, any net gain/loss calculations will use the original values.
Saturday 7/22, 8:05 PM ET: #4 Quad City (9-6) @ #1 Frisco (13-2)
Alec’s Power Ranking Model Prediction: Frisco 85% chance to win
Spread: Frisco -10.5
O/U: 97.5
Moneyline: Quad City +275, Frisco -330
The pick: QC +275 Moneyline
Here’s the tough thing about predicting playoffs for any level of Pro Football. Anything can happen within sixty minutes on the gridiron. That means that we’re forced to take everything we’ve learned from the past eighteen weeks with a grain of salt - or a more extreme alternative, toss it out the window altogether. Frisco’s going to be the preferred crowdsourced pick here, and deservedly so as the league’s best regular season team. Curiously, though, these two conference rivals never encountered each other this regular season, and the previous meeting between these two teams was last year’s East Final, a furious 15-point 4th-quarter comeback win by the Steamwheelers that sent them to Vegas. And Quad City forced the 2022 regular season meeting in Frisco into overtime as well, so there’s a strong track record to suggest an upset should absolutely not be ruled out. All the pressure in the world is squarely on Frisco to win after two consecutive semifinal exits, which could open the door for unexpected mistakes by the Fighters. In a playoff situation, it doesn’t take a whole lot to derail even the most formidable of squads. I’m going vehemently against my model here, not to mention common sense, but since when have we ever defaulted to common sense in this series? I’ve got that palpable, overbearing feeling that Quad City can surprise once again and re-capture that clutch 2022 playoff form with a seismic first-round upset!
Saturday 7/22, 8:05 PM ET: #3 Massachusetts (9-6) @ #2 Sioux Falls (9-6)
Alec’s Power Ranking Model Prediction: Massachusetts 58% chance to win
Spread: Sioux Falls -1 at +100, Massachusetts +1 at -120 (opened at Sioux Falls -2.5 at default -110)
O/U: 103.5
Moneyline: Massachusetts -115, Sioux Falls -105 (previously MASS +100, SXF -120)
The pick: MASS +100 Moneyline
The first of two direct rematches from Week 18 takes the form of the Eastern #3 versus #2 matchup, with Sioux Falls hosting this game thanks to last Saturday’s 62-59 win over the Pirates. This is another instance where projecting the game is all about the matchup. Even though the Pirates will once again be on the road, they project better against the Storm than they would have either the Fighters or Steamwheelers. And they would have had the game on Saturday won had it not been for a critical and questionable penalty called against them on the potential game-clinching fourth down stop, along with other calls that set them back during last week’s outing. Saturday’s winner-take-all contest should once again be tight, simply because of the nature of playoff football and the fact that the Pirates likely aren’t surrendering 62 points again. And while they have lost three straight games, all on the road, those losses were all by single-digit margins (nine, five, and three points). And as the adage goes in sports, “Close games tend to even out over time.” The Pirates will have arguably the biggest chip on their shoulder among the eight-team playoff field, too, as they look to prove their ever-growing crowd of doubters and haters wrong. They were upset at home as the #2 seed last July and would love nothing more than to do to the Storm what Quad City did to them last postseason. I’m ready to bet one more time on the talent and ceiling of the Bay State Buccos. So too are oddsmakers, apparently, with the moneyline shifting on Saturday afternoon in favoring the Pirates (-115 versus Sioux Falls at -105. Anyone who wants to take Mass straight up will now have to lay a nickel and dime. Lucky for us, we locked this in Wednesday at even money.
Saturday 7/22, 9:05 PM ET: #4 Northern Arizona (7-8) @ #1 Arizona (11-4)
Alec’s Power Ranking Model Prediction: Arizona 82% chance to win
Spread: Arizona -13.5
O/U: 99.5 (opened at 96.5)
Moneyline: Northern Arizona +340, Arizona -425
The pick: NAZ +13.5 Spread
Here’s the second matchup that also had a counterpart in last week’s regular season finale. The defending champion Wranglers have a stiff test in front of them, going up once more against a Rattlers team hungrier than ever to capture its first championship since 2017. MVP frontrunner Drew Powell is healthy for the Rattlers, and as long as that remains the case, anything less than a championship will be considered a lofty disappointment by Rattlers fans. The Wranglers will try to repeat their 2022 magic with a stunning upset victory, and they carry over a defense that finished second in the league in scoring defense this year (39.7 pt/g). If any team has shown the capability of at least containing the Rattlers in a small 60-minute sample, it’s the Wranglers. The question becomes, can the offense produce enough points to give the defense that chance? That will be the highlighted storyline to follow leading up to and throughout this matchup. As long as the Wranglers don’t play themselves into a 35-8 hole like they did last week, this should be a closer game than what’s projected. And “Dropkick” Mangan’s ability to reliably hit dropkicks gives the road cover a bit of extra oomph. Like Frisco, the entire world’s worth of pressure falls squarely on the arms of Arizona to get the job done, which could play a factor – whether that’s positively or negatively we will have to wait and see.
Sunday 7/23, 6:05 PM ET: #3 Tucson (9-6) @ #2 Bay Area (10-5)
Alec’s Power Ranking Model Prediction: Bay Area 73% chance to win
Spread: Bay Area -7
O/U: 91.5
Moneyline: Tucson +230, Bay Area -275
The pick: UNDER 91.5
Tucson is going to be an uber-popular, trendy pick to pull off a first-round upset, probably more than either of the two Eastern first round contests. After all, they’ve been noticeably dominant on the road (5-2), including victories in the Snake Pit and SAP Center already on their 2023 resume. It’s so hard to bet against the Panthers, though, especially with Dalton Sneed taking the reins at quarterback. He’s led the Panthers to becoming arguably the deadliest offense in the league. Not only can that up-tempo unit put up points at will on a good day, they very rarely ever turn the ball over, and that trait of reliable ball security carries over very well into postseason play. It will be critical for the Panthers to keep that going against the third-ranked Tucson defense (41.3 pt/g), especially where the Skulls have already held Bay Area under 45 points in both regular season meetings. Unlike the Panthers, Tucson prefers to slow the game down, and in a playoff setting, it’s usually that plodding and roughshod side that dictates the pace of the game. However it plays out, it should be a highly entertaining affair that could very well come down to the final snap. And if Tucson can turn in another gem on the road, it would make the Under a solid play.
Recommended 3-leg parlay:
“Saturday’s 1st Pick”: Massachusetts vs. Sioux Falls – UNDER 103.5 (-110)
“Saturday’s 2nd Pick”: Northern Arizona vs. Arizona – OVER 96.5 (-110)*
“Sunday’s Pick”: Tucson vs. Bay Area – Sugar Skulls Moneyline (+230)
Parlay Odds +1102 ($10.00 would win ~$110.27)
*Leg was locked in before O/U changed to 99.5
IFL Championship Winner Odds:
Green = Odds Increased from last week
Red = Odds Decreased from last week
Arizona Rattlers +200
Frisco Fighters +230
Bay Area Panthers +550
Massachusetts Pirates +700
Sioux Falls Storm +1300
Quad City Steamwheelers +1500
Tucson Sugar Skulls +2000
Northern Arizona Wranglers +2200
Good luck to all you bettors out there! Let’s print out the big bucks!!
UPDATED 7/22/23, 4:35 PM ET
Welcome to Volume XVII of my "Wager Wednesday" bit, in which I examine the current landscape of the upcoming week's games, based on lines and odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. As an advocate of accountability, I will recap my results - whether genius or moronic - from the prior week as well. With that, let's see how my picks from last week turned out:
• FRI @ IOWA – IOWA +13.5 (Iowa held up respectably well in this game, especially considering that Frisco’s starters played far more of the game than I had originally predicted. Winning the bet was made tricky by a few key plays, highlighted by an inexplicable Hail Mary touchdown by the Fighters at the first half gun. Despite that mistake and a few others, Iowa actually had the ball, down by 16, with a shot at the backdoor cover. They were turned over on downs, however, and Frisco capped its regular season with a 13th victory by a 51-35 final score, covering the two-touchdown spread.)
• MASS @ SXF – SXF +100 (This was a game that all but confirmed that this matchup is playoff worthy – both literally and figuratively – and earned a late entry to “Game of the Year” consideration. It was about as evenly matched up as it could get, though many could argue that all the pivotal calls were convincingly one-sided – including a crucial defensive holding penalty against Massachusetts that wiped out what would have been the game-clinching stop on a Storm 4th down. Call this one a betting bailout if you wish, but Sioux Falls still had to find the endzone on that drive, which would hold as the game-winner. The Storm steal away the second seed and have played themselves into a rematch with the Pirates in this week’s quarterfinal, with the 62-59 win.) $10.00 paid $20.00
• QC @ TUL – TUL +7 (That sound you hear outside is the entire city of Tulsa lighting illegal fireworks in jovial celebration. Rather than the usual one-possession, down-to-the-wire type of games we’re used to seeing at BOK Center, Tulsa composed a fantastic second half of football, exacting revenge for their prior loss to the Steamwheelers and playing spoiler for Quad City’s hopes of hosting a playoff game in 2023. A 23-6 run in the final 30 minutes paved the way for the Oilers’ first home win in franchise history, with 56-35 as the final score. Going bold with the Tulsa moneyline would have been quite sweet, but a win is a win either way!) $10.00 paid $19.09
• NAZ @ ARI – ARI -10.5 (Much like the first meeting in the Snake Pit back in Week 10, this game started with a convincing first half from the championship favorite Rattlers, a stretch which included a 35-0 run at one point. The Wranglers did not lie down, though, scoring the first 14 points of the third quarter and suddenly bringing the bet’s status back in limbo. Two pivotal moments late in the game defined this bet – the first was Kevin Guy’s unusual decision to settle for a field goal on a short 4th-and-goal, which gave the Rattlers a 16-point lead. The second was what ultimately decided the bet, as Northern Arizona waved the white flag rather than going for a meaningless garbage time touchdown, to get an early start in preparing for the rematch next week. In any event, the Rattlers’ 55-39 win covers the spread, as predicted.) $10.00 paid $19.09
• GB @ TUC – GB +140 (I’m fairly certain that any Sugar Skulls fan will tell you that the game they played against Green Bay is their ideal blueprint to victory – or pretty close to it. After an opening touchdown by the Blizzard, Tucson kept them out of the endzone for the remainder of the half and built a 21-10 lead by halftime. That was all the cushion they needed to grind the rest of the game out with their dominant running scheme, for which Green Bay had no answer. The Sugar Skulls will now prepare for a trip out to San Jose to begin its playoff bid, after taking out the Blizzard 48-39 in a game that was more dominant from Tucson than the final score suggests.)
• VGS @ SD – OVER 94.5 (The game didn’t have as fast of a pace as what I had in mind, but offensive efficiency ruled the day in San Diego. The first defensive stand did not occur until the third quarter, but even still, the bet came down to San Diego’s final possession, at which point they held a 51-42 lead. Alarmingly, the Strike Force called three consecutive passing plays while inside Vegas’s one-yard line – all incomplete passes by Rudy Johnson – before finally dialing a run for him inside the one-minute warning to take this wager to the finish line. In a battle of wills and bragging rights, the Strike Force defended home turf and beat the Knight Hawks, 58-42, for a 100-point total.) $10.00 paid $19.09
• BAY @ DUKE – UNDER 103.5 (A bit of an anticlimactic way to clinch our first ever five-win week if you ask me, but absolutely no question we’ll take it! Predictably, this game lacked the level of excitement that we’re used to seeing from a typical IFL game, largely due to the NAZ/Arizona outcome from the night before nullifying any potential impact this game could have had on the playoff picture. We saw just 24 first-half points scored, and although the tempo picked up a little bit in the second half, it was nowhere close to hitting the century mark at any point. Bay Area took care of the Gladiators in no-nonsense fashion, winning 44-35, for a 79-point total that fell way short of this absurd projection. Pour one out for anyone who locked in Bay Area at a -9.5 spread right before kickoff, as a garbage-time touchdown by Duke City caused the dreaded “by-the-hook” loss for this group.) $10.00 paid $19.09
Well, it took the entirety of the regular season, but we FINALLY hit the five-win goal for Week 18!! It could have been an even better outing too, as Iowa had an opportunity for a late touchdown to cover but couldn’t quite convert. “Moneyline Magic” continues, once again at the expense of my hometown Pirates, who lost to the Storm in Saturday’s 62-59 epic, with Sioux Falls providing me an even money +100 payout that I was able to lock in before the selection went to the dark side (minus odds). A set of $10 bets on each of these would have returned $96.36, translating into a net gain of $26.36 for Week 18. Overall this season, I am 55-of-97 (55-42) with a total result of roughly $141.42 of net gain. After a rough 6-10 start to the season in the first three weeks of this series, we hit a spectacular stride the rest of the way, posting a record of 49-32 and a net gain of $170.15 since Week 6! During that 13-week span, we also had winning records in every week except for two, one of which was an even 3-3 record in Week 12, and the other a near-miss 3-4 record in Week 13.
Just like last week, the Recommended Three-Leg Parlay of Week 18 came up one pick short, with the Blizzard failing to cover a 5.5-point underdog spread at Tucson. The other two picks (Storm Moneyline and Bay Area -7.5 spread) went precisely according to plan. Again, we were very agonizingly close (four points away in the case of GB/TUC) to the super payday, but sadly it was not to be. Here’s to hoping the playoffs can provide that push that allows us at least one more successful trifecta before 2023 is all said and done!
YTD Breakdown of wagers by type:
Over/Under: 16-of-30 (53.3% success rate, +$5.45 net profit)
Spreads: 24-of-43 (55.8% success rate, +$28.18 net profit)
Moneyline: 15-of-24 (62.5% success rate, +$107.79 net profit)
Fourteen teams began this season back in March. Eight teams now remain to slug it out for the right to be crowned 2023 IFL Champions. Each team’s odyssey begins this weekend, and whoever can whip together a three-game win streak between now and August 5th will take home the hardware in Henderson. Can the Rattlers and/or Fighters atone for their near-misses from last season and secure spots in the Title Game? Or will there be dark horses that impose their will and steal the show, much like Quad City and NAZ did last year as underdogs? First round playoff action is quickly upon us, read on to find out the selections I’m making!
*Odds and lines shown are at time of posting. They will be updated prior to kickoff if they change; however, any net gain/loss calculations will use the original values.
Saturday 7/22, 8:05 PM ET: #4 Quad City (9-6) @ #1 Frisco (13-2)
Alec’s Power Ranking Model Prediction: Frisco 85% chance to win
Spread: Frisco -10.5
O/U: 97.5
Moneyline: Quad City +275, Frisco -330
The pick: QC +275 Moneyline
Here’s the tough thing about predicting playoffs for any level of Pro Football. Anything can happen within sixty minutes on the gridiron. That means that we’re forced to take everything we’ve learned from the past eighteen weeks with a grain of salt - or a more extreme alternative, toss it out the window altogether. Frisco’s going to be the preferred crowdsourced pick here, and deservedly so as the league’s best regular season team. Curiously, though, these two conference rivals never encountered each other this regular season, and the previous meeting between these two teams was last year’s East Final, a furious 15-point 4th-quarter comeback win by the Steamwheelers that sent them to Vegas. And Quad City forced the 2022 regular season meeting in Frisco into overtime as well, so there’s a strong track record to suggest an upset should absolutely not be ruled out. All the pressure in the world is squarely on Frisco to win after two consecutive semifinal exits, which could open the door for unexpected mistakes by the Fighters. In a playoff situation, it doesn’t take a whole lot to derail even the most formidable of squads. I’m going vehemently against my model here, not to mention common sense, but since when have we ever defaulted to common sense in this series? I’ve got that palpable, overbearing feeling that Quad City can surprise once again and re-capture that clutch 2022 playoff form with a seismic first-round upset!
Saturday 7/22, 8:05 PM ET: #3 Massachusetts (9-6) @ #2 Sioux Falls (9-6)
Alec’s Power Ranking Model Prediction: Massachusetts 58% chance to win
Spread: Sioux Falls -1 at +100, Massachusetts +1 at -120 (opened at Sioux Falls -2.5 at default -110)
O/U: 103.5
Moneyline: Massachusetts -115, Sioux Falls -105 (previously MASS +100, SXF -120)
The pick: MASS +100 Moneyline
The first of two direct rematches from Week 18 takes the form of the Eastern #3 versus #2 matchup, with Sioux Falls hosting this game thanks to last Saturday’s 62-59 win over the Pirates. This is another instance where projecting the game is all about the matchup. Even though the Pirates will once again be on the road, they project better against the Storm than they would have either the Fighters or Steamwheelers. And they would have had the game on Saturday won had it not been for a critical and questionable penalty called against them on the potential game-clinching fourth down stop, along with other calls that set them back during last week’s outing. Saturday’s winner-take-all contest should once again be tight, simply because of the nature of playoff football and the fact that the Pirates likely aren’t surrendering 62 points again. And while they have lost three straight games, all on the road, those losses were all by single-digit margins (nine, five, and three points). And as the adage goes in sports, “Close games tend to even out over time.” The Pirates will have arguably the biggest chip on their shoulder among the eight-team playoff field, too, as they look to prove their ever-growing crowd of doubters and haters wrong. They were upset at home as the #2 seed last July and would love nothing more than to do to the Storm what Quad City did to them last postseason. I’m ready to bet one more time on the talent and ceiling of the Bay State Buccos. So too are oddsmakers, apparently, with the moneyline shifting on Saturday afternoon in favoring the Pirates (-115 versus Sioux Falls at -105. Anyone who wants to take Mass straight up will now have to lay a nickel and dime. Lucky for us, we locked this in Wednesday at even money.
Saturday 7/22, 9:05 PM ET: #4 Northern Arizona (7-8) @ #1 Arizona (11-4)
Alec’s Power Ranking Model Prediction: Arizona 82% chance to win
Spread: Arizona -13.5
O/U: 99.5 (opened at 96.5)
Moneyline: Northern Arizona +340, Arizona -425
The pick: NAZ +13.5 Spread
Here’s the second matchup that also had a counterpart in last week’s regular season finale. The defending champion Wranglers have a stiff test in front of them, going up once more against a Rattlers team hungrier than ever to capture its first championship since 2017. MVP frontrunner Drew Powell is healthy for the Rattlers, and as long as that remains the case, anything less than a championship will be considered a lofty disappointment by Rattlers fans. The Wranglers will try to repeat their 2022 magic with a stunning upset victory, and they carry over a defense that finished second in the league in scoring defense this year (39.7 pt/g). If any team has shown the capability of at least containing the Rattlers in a small 60-minute sample, it’s the Wranglers. The question becomes, can the offense produce enough points to give the defense that chance? That will be the highlighted storyline to follow leading up to and throughout this matchup. As long as the Wranglers don’t play themselves into a 35-8 hole like they did last week, this should be a closer game than what’s projected. And “Dropkick” Mangan’s ability to reliably hit dropkicks gives the road cover a bit of extra oomph. Like Frisco, the entire world’s worth of pressure falls squarely on the arms of Arizona to get the job done, which could play a factor – whether that’s positively or negatively we will have to wait and see.
Sunday 7/23, 6:05 PM ET: #3 Tucson (9-6) @ #2 Bay Area (10-5)
Alec’s Power Ranking Model Prediction: Bay Area 73% chance to win
Spread: Bay Area -7
O/U: 91.5
Moneyline: Tucson +230, Bay Area -275
The pick: UNDER 91.5
Tucson is going to be an uber-popular, trendy pick to pull off a first-round upset, probably more than either of the two Eastern first round contests. After all, they’ve been noticeably dominant on the road (5-2), including victories in the Snake Pit and SAP Center already on their 2023 resume. It’s so hard to bet against the Panthers, though, especially with Dalton Sneed taking the reins at quarterback. He’s led the Panthers to becoming arguably the deadliest offense in the league. Not only can that up-tempo unit put up points at will on a good day, they very rarely ever turn the ball over, and that trait of reliable ball security carries over very well into postseason play. It will be critical for the Panthers to keep that going against the third-ranked Tucson defense (41.3 pt/g), especially where the Skulls have already held Bay Area under 45 points in both regular season meetings. Unlike the Panthers, Tucson prefers to slow the game down, and in a playoff setting, it’s usually that plodding and roughshod side that dictates the pace of the game. However it plays out, it should be a highly entertaining affair that could very well come down to the final snap. And if Tucson can turn in another gem on the road, it would make the Under a solid play.
Recommended 3-leg parlay:
“Saturday’s 1st Pick”: Massachusetts vs. Sioux Falls – UNDER 103.5 (-110)
“Saturday’s 2nd Pick”: Northern Arizona vs. Arizona – OVER 96.5 (-110)*
“Sunday’s Pick”: Tucson vs. Bay Area – Sugar Skulls Moneyline (+230)
Parlay Odds +1102 ($10.00 would win ~$110.27)
*Leg was locked in before O/U changed to 99.5
IFL Championship Winner Odds:
Green = Odds Increased from last week
Red = Odds Decreased from last week
Arizona Rattlers +200
Frisco Fighters +230
Bay Area Panthers +550
Massachusetts Pirates +700
Sioux Falls Storm +1300
Quad City Steamwheelers +1500
Tucson Sugar Skulls +2000
Northern Arizona Wranglers +2200
Good luck to all you bettors out there! Let’s print out the big bucks!!
UPDATED 7/22/23, 4:35 PM ET