Post by alecs on Jul 26, 2023 8:29:22 GMT -8
Happy Wednesday, IFL Fans!
Welcome to Volume XVIII of my "Wager Wednesday" bit, in which I examine the current landscape of the upcoming week's games, based on lines and odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. As an advocate of accountability, I will recap my results - whether genius or moronic - from the prior week as well. With that, let's see how my picks from last week turned out:
• QC @ FRI – QC +275 (Sheesh. I went purely on gut instinct with a hefty upset special, and I was flat out wrong. Frisco left absolutely no doubt about it after beginning the game on a 30-0 run against a Quad City team that clearly ran out of steam at the end of the season. T.J. Edwards showed once more why he is more than deserving of MVP consideration, leading Frisco to their third appearance in the Round of Four in as many seasons in existence. The final score: Frisco 57, Quad City 29.)
• MASS @ SXF – MASS +100 (Ugghhh. Where do I even begin with describing the mind-melting and heartbreaking loss for the Pirates? The first 45 minutes of the game was pure bliss for them, with Mass ahead 39-21 at one point in the fourth quarter. Everything had to go the Storm’s way to even entertain the notion of a comeback. To be fair to Mike Glass, he was reunited with the Pirates just days before kickoff and was only relied upon because Alejandro Bennifield got crushed on a sack earlier in the game that took him out. But Glass’s fumble and interception on consecutive fourth quarter possessions served to be the stops that the Storm defense needed, and the offense was perfect in the second half after getting shut out entirely in the first half. It’s a tear-jerking and unfulfilling conclusion to the season for the fans in Worcester, as the dream sequence continues for the Storm after completing the comeback 42-39 win.)
• NAZ @ ARI – NAZ +13.5 (Major, MAJOR upset alert in the desert! Northern Arizona demonstrated in this game that championship-upside defense isn’t just about points surrendered – though that is a significant piece to that puzzle. The Wranglers set the tone of this game by forcing four turnovers on Drew Powell in the first half, and they eventually built up a mesmerizing 42-14 lead. The Rattlers did find lightning in a bottle with a momentum-shifting run in the second half, as a 33-0 streak actually gave them the lead with moments to go in the fourth quarter. But the Wranglers were able to recover and re-take the lead, and managed to intercept Drew Powell twice more to end Arizona’s bid for a championship. This result is the biggest playoff upset this league has seen in at least a decade, with the Wranglers winning 62-53 and extending Arizona’s “drought” yet another season.) $10.00 paid $19.09
• TUC @ BAY – UNDER 91.5 (I understood when I placed this bet that it was going to be a race to 13 combined touchdowns, so this largely depended on the game’s tempo, both teams’ offensive efficiency, and limiting chunk plays. The first half played pretty much on pace, if not slightly below projection, as Bay Area held a 29-13 lead after starting out the game 22-0. You could argue that Tucson’s second half defense played a pivotal role in making this bet a winner, forcing a pair of Craig Peterson field goal attempts in that span. In the end, the Panthers got a late game-clinching rushing touchdown from Justin Rankin to eliminate the Sugar Skulls, 46-34, with the 80 total points nicely falling under for us.) $10.00 paid $19.09
The Conference Semifinals turned out to be an even win-loss split, with two on each side. Unfortunately, there was no “Moneyline Magic” this time around, with Quad City’s dud and the fourth-quarter Massachusetts collapse causing both losses. Since both successful wagers laid money at -110 odds apiece, we operated at a slight loss last week. A set of $10 bets on each of these would have returned $38.18, translating into a net loss of $1.82 for Round One of the Playoffs. Overall this season (including playoffs), I am 57-of-101 (57-44) with a total result of roughly $139.60 of net gain. And despite recording just my second net loss result in the past three months (!), our record since Week 6 is a mighty fine 51-34, with a net gain in that span of $168.33.
Mark last week as the third in a row where the Recommended Three-Leg Parlay came one result short. With Mass and Sioux Falls staying under 103.5, and NAZ and Arizona going over 96.5, all I needed on Sunday was a Sugar Skulls upset special for a tasty payout of over $120. Sadly, the Bay Area Panthers had other ideas, taking that game and advancing to the Western Conference Final. I am glad I decided to swing for the fences, though, even though this attempt came up empty. Since there are only two games this week, and then the Championship next week, this will stand as our final attempt at the Three-Leg Parlay for the 2023 season, as outcomes from the same game cannot be combined in the same wager (not yet, anyways).
YTD Breakdown of wagers by type:
Over/Under: 17-of-31 (54.8% success rate, +$14.54 net profit)
Spreads: 25-of-44 (56.8% success rate, +$37.26 net profit)
Moneyline: 15-of-26 (57.7% success rate, +$87.80 net profit)
After all the wild adventures that 2023 has offered us, we are down to the final three games of the IFL Season: The East and West Finals this week, and then the IFL Championship in Vegas next Saturday afternoon. The Fighters, Storm, Panthers, and defending champion Wranglers all look to reserve their travel plans, with just one more win separating them from a Championship game appearance. What will my selections be? Is there enough realistic value in “Moneyline Magic” - or do I shift my attention elsewhere? Can we stay on pace for sixty wins in 2023? Read on to find out!
*Odds and lines shown are at time of posting. They will be updated prior to kickoff if they change; however, any net gain/loss calculations will use the original values.
Saturday 7/29, 8:05 PM ET: #2 Sioux Falls (10-6) @ #1 Frisco (14-2)
Alec’s Power Ranking Model Prediction: Frisco 82% chance to win
Spread: Frisco -10.5
O/U: 96.5
Moneyline: Sioux Falls +240, Frisco -285
Recommended Plays: FRI -10.5, UNDER 96.5, FRI -285 ML
The pick: UNDER 96.5
I’m confident that there’s a decent portion of Fighters fans who definitely preferred a matchup against the Storm over the Pirates, despite Sioux Falls earning the #2 seed. After all, the previous meeting between these two teams was basically a perfect showing by the Fighters (56-15 back in Week 16). I’m certainly not expecting that lopsided result to manifest itself again on Saturday night, but I do also think Sioux Falls won’t be able to get away with the schemes that it ran on the vulnerable Pirates defensive unit for the past two weeks. The playoff atmosphere, coupled with the increasingly magical momentum of the Kurtiss Riggs/Lorenzo Brown farewell tour, should keep this one competitive for most of the game. What settles this decision for me is the potential for another spike performance by the Fighters defense; if they can hold Sioux Falls below 30 like they did to the Steamwheelers last week, we should have a heightened chance for a win, even with T.J. Edwards capable of running the Frisco offense at 60+ point capacity.
Saturday 7/29, 9:05 PM ET: #4 Northern Arizona (8-8) @ #2 Bay Area (11-5)
Alec’s Power Ranking Model Prediction: Bay Area 81% chance to win
Spread: Bay Area -7.5
O/U: 87.5
Moneyline: Northern Arizona +195, Bay Area -230
Recommended Plays: BAY -7.5, UNDER 87.5, BAY -230 ML
The pick: UNDER 87.5
We couldn’t have asked for a more insane Western Conference Final matchup than this, especially looking at some recent historical context. Both teams have had a not-too-distant one-win disaster of a season in the post-Covid era (NAZ in ’21 at 1-13, BAY in ’22 at 1-15). Fast forward to 2023, and the two teams will now do battle for the right to represent the West in the IFL Championship. Northern Arizona fueled its magnificent upset last week by forcing six Rattlers turnovers, and in order to continue their Cinderella run, they will need to call upon that same type of performance this week against an equally potent Bay Area offense which prides itself on limiting its turnovers. We have two 2023 meetings we can look back on for reference, a Bay Area 47-13 beatdown at SAP Center, and a Northern Arizona 35-34 victory in the reverse fixture at Prescott Valley. Whichever side you take, I’m suspecting the play of the Panthers defense will be the X-factor. Neither regular season meeting eclipsed even 70 points, and I’m not expecting a sudden offensive outburst now in a do-or-die Conference Final scenario. This should stay below 12 touchdowns and a field goal, assuming of course we settle the game in regulation.
Featured Two-Leg Parlay Possibilities:
“All Chalk” – Frisco Moneyline (-285) + Bay Area Moneyline (-230) = -108
$10.00 would payout $19.38
“All Chalk, but with spreads” – Frisco -10.5 (-110) + Bay Area -7.5 (-110) = +264
$10.00 would payout $36.44
“Dual Defensive Duels” – SXF/FRI Under 96.5 (-110) + NAZ/BAY Under 87.5 (-110) = +264
$10.00 would payout $36.44
“LET CHAOS REIGN!!” – Sioux Falls Moneyline (+240) + NAZ Moneyline (+195) = +903
$10.00 would payout $100.30
IFL Championship Winner Odds:
Frisco Fighters -120 (down from opening -115)
Bay Area Panthers +230
Sioux Falls Storm +600 (up from opening +550)
Northern Arizona Wranglers +950
*Best Futures Value Pick: Bay Area Panthers +230
For those interested in taking a stab at the Championship winner now, look no further than claiming stake on the Panthers, especially at these generous odds. With the Rattlers now out of the way, the only obstacle between Bay Area and a trip to Vegas is the title-defending Wranglers, and the Panthers will have home turf for Saturday’s game. I fully expect Bay Area to hunker down and get the job done; they will not take Northern Arizona lightly. Even if they do play the Fighters in Vegas, Bay Area is one of only two teams to have handed a loss to the Fighters all season long (Massachusetts being the other). Of course, they could also get bailed out by another upset special if Sioux Falls finds more magic and takes down the Fighters, which in theory would turn Bay Area into a decisive favorite.
Good luck to all you bettors out there! Let’s print out the big bucks!!
**UPDATED 7/27/23, 5:25 PM ET
Welcome to Volume XVIII of my "Wager Wednesday" bit, in which I examine the current landscape of the upcoming week's games, based on lines and odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. As an advocate of accountability, I will recap my results - whether genius or moronic - from the prior week as well. With that, let's see how my picks from last week turned out:
• QC @ FRI – QC +275 (Sheesh. I went purely on gut instinct with a hefty upset special, and I was flat out wrong. Frisco left absolutely no doubt about it after beginning the game on a 30-0 run against a Quad City team that clearly ran out of steam at the end of the season. T.J. Edwards showed once more why he is more than deserving of MVP consideration, leading Frisco to their third appearance in the Round of Four in as many seasons in existence. The final score: Frisco 57, Quad City 29.)
• MASS @ SXF – MASS +100 (Ugghhh. Where do I even begin with describing the mind-melting and heartbreaking loss for the Pirates? The first 45 minutes of the game was pure bliss for them, with Mass ahead 39-21 at one point in the fourth quarter. Everything had to go the Storm’s way to even entertain the notion of a comeback. To be fair to Mike Glass, he was reunited with the Pirates just days before kickoff and was only relied upon because Alejandro Bennifield got crushed on a sack earlier in the game that took him out. But Glass’s fumble and interception on consecutive fourth quarter possessions served to be the stops that the Storm defense needed, and the offense was perfect in the second half after getting shut out entirely in the first half. It’s a tear-jerking and unfulfilling conclusion to the season for the fans in Worcester, as the dream sequence continues for the Storm after completing the comeback 42-39 win.)
• NAZ @ ARI – NAZ +13.5 (Major, MAJOR upset alert in the desert! Northern Arizona demonstrated in this game that championship-upside defense isn’t just about points surrendered – though that is a significant piece to that puzzle. The Wranglers set the tone of this game by forcing four turnovers on Drew Powell in the first half, and they eventually built up a mesmerizing 42-14 lead. The Rattlers did find lightning in a bottle with a momentum-shifting run in the second half, as a 33-0 streak actually gave them the lead with moments to go in the fourth quarter. But the Wranglers were able to recover and re-take the lead, and managed to intercept Drew Powell twice more to end Arizona’s bid for a championship. This result is the biggest playoff upset this league has seen in at least a decade, with the Wranglers winning 62-53 and extending Arizona’s “drought” yet another season.) $10.00 paid $19.09
• TUC @ BAY – UNDER 91.5 (I understood when I placed this bet that it was going to be a race to 13 combined touchdowns, so this largely depended on the game’s tempo, both teams’ offensive efficiency, and limiting chunk plays. The first half played pretty much on pace, if not slightly below projection, as Bay Area held a 29-13 lead after starting out the game 22-0. You could argue that Tucson’s second half defense played a pivotal role in making this bet a winner, forcing a pair of Craig Peterson field goal attempts in that span. In the end, the Panthers got a late game-clinching rushing touchdown from Justin Rankin to eliminate the Sugar Skulls, 46-34, with the 80 total points nicely falling under for us.) $10.00 paid $19.09
The Conference Semifinals turned out to be an even win-loss split, with two on each side. Unfortunately, there was no “Moneyline Magic” this time around, with Quad City’s dud and the fourth-quarter Massachusetts collapse causing both losses. Since both successful wagers laid money at -110 odds apiece, we operated at a slight loss last week. A set of $10 bets on each of these would have returned $38.18, translating into a net loss of $1.82 for Round One of the Playoffs. Overall this season (including playoffs), I am 57-of-101 (57-44) with a total result of roughly $139.60 of net gain. And despite recording just my second net loss result in the past three months (!), our record since Week 6 is a mighty fine 51-34, with a net gain in that span of $168.33.
Mark last week as the third in a row where the Recommended Three-Leg Parlay came one result short. With Mass and Sioux Falls staying under 103.5, and NAZ and Arizona going over 96.5, all I needed on Sunday was a Sugar Skulls upset special for a tasty payout of over $120. Sadly, the Bay Area Panthers had other ideas, taking that game and advancing to the Western Conference Final. I am glad I decided to swing for the fences, though, even though this attempt came up empty. Since there are only two games this week, and then the Championship next week, this will stand as our final attempt at the Three-Leg Parlay for the 2023 season, as outcomes from the same game cannot be combined in the same wager (not yet, anyways).
YTD Breakdown of wagers by type:
Over/Under: 17-of-31 (54.8% success rate, +$14.54 net profit)
Spreads: 25-of-44 (56.8% success rate, +$37.26 net profit)
Moneyline: 15-of-26 (57.7% success rate, +$87.80 net profit)
After all the wild adventures that 2023 has offered us, we are down to the final three games of the IFL Season: The East and West Finals this week, and then the IFL Championship in Vegas next Saturday afternoon. The Fighters, Storm, Panthers, and defending champion Wranglers all look to reserve their travel plans, with just one more win separating them from a Championship game appearance. What will my selections be? Is there enough realistic value in “Moneyline Magic” - or do I shift my attention elsewhere? Can we stay on pace for sixty wins in 2023? Read on to find out!
*Odds and lines shown are at time of posting. They will be updated prior to kickoff if they change; however, any net gain/loss calculations will use the original values.
Saturday 7/29, 8:05 PM ET: #2 Sioux Falls (10-6) @ #1 Frisco (14-2)
Alec’s Power Ranking Model Prediction: Frisco 82% chance to win
Spread: Frisco -10.5
O/U: 96.5
Moneyline: Sioux Falls +240, Frisco -285
Recommended Plays: FRI -10.5, UNDER 96.5, FRI -285 ML
The pick: UNDER 96.5
I’m confident that there’s a decent portion of Fighters fans who definitely preferred a matchup against the Storm over the Pirates, despite Sioux Falls earning the #2 seed. After all, the previous meeting between these two teams was basically a perfect showing by the Fighters (56-15 back in Week 16). I’m certainly not expecting that lopsided result to manifest itself again on Saturday night, but I do also think Sioux Falls won’t be able to get away with the schemes that it ran on the vulnerable Pirates defensive unit for the past two weeks. The playoff atmosphere, coupled with the increasingly magical momentum of the Kurtiss Riggs/Lorenzo Brown farewell tour, should keep this one competitive for most of the game. What settles this decision for me is the potential for another spike performance by the Fighters defense; if they can hold Sioux Falls below 30 like they did to the Steamwheelers last week, we should have a heightened chance for a win, even with T.J. Edwards capable of running the Frisco offense at 60+ point capacity.
Saturday 7/29, 9:05 PM ET: #4 Northern Arizona (8-8) @ #2 Bay Area (11-5)
Alec’s Power Ranking Model Prediction: Bay Area 81% chance to win
Spread: Bay Area -7.5
O/U: 87.5
Moneyline: Northern Arizona +195, Bay Area -230
Recommended Plays: BAY -7.5, UNDER 87.5, BAY -230 ML
The pick: UNDER 87.5
We couldn’t have asked for a more insane Western Conference Final matchup than this, especially looking at some recent historical context. Both teams have had a not-too-distant one-win disaster of a season in the post-Covid era (NAZ in ’21 at 1-13, BAY in ’22 at 1-15). Fast forward to 2023, and the two teams will now do battle for the right to represent the West in the IFL Championship. Northern Arizona fueled its magnificent upset last week by forcing six Rattlers turnovers, and in order to continue their Cinderella run, they will need to call upon that same type of performance this week against an equally potent Bay Area offense which prides itself on limiting its turnovers. We have two 2023 meetings we can look back on for reference, a Bay Area 47-13 beatdown at SAP Center, and a Northern Arizona 35-34 victory in the reverse fixture at Prescott Valley. Whichever side you take, I’m suspecting the play of the Panthers defense will be the X-factor. Neither regular season meeting eclipsed even 70 points, and I’m not expecting a sudden offensive outburst now in a do-or-die Conference Final scenario. This should stay below 12 touchdowns and a field goal, assuming of course we settle the game in regulation.
Featured Two-Leg Parlay Possibilities:
“All Chalk” – Frisco Moneyline (-285) + Bay Area Moneyline (-230) = -108
$10.00 would payout $19.38
“All Chalk, but with spreads” – Frisco -10.5 (-110) + Bay Area -7.5 (-110) = +264
$10.00 would payout $36.44
“Dual Defensive Duels” – SXF/FRI Under 96.5 (-110) + NAZ/BAY Under 87.5 (-110) = +264
$10.00 would payout $36.44
“LET CHAOS REIGN!!” – Sioux Falls Moneyline (+240) + NAZ Moneyline (+195) = +903
$10.00 would payout $100.30
IFL Championship Winner Odds:
Frisco Fighters -120 (down from opening -115)
Bay Area Panthers +230
Sioux Falls Storm +600 (up from opening +550)
Northern Arizona Wranglers +950
*Best Futures Value Pick: Bay Area Panthers +230
For those interested in taking a stab at the Championship winner now, look no further than claiming stake on the Panthers, especially at these generous odds. With the Rattlers now out of the way, the only obstacle between Bay Area and a trip to Vegas is the title-defending Wranglers, and the Panthers will have home turf for Saturday’s game. I fully expect Bay Area to hunker down and get the job done; they will not take Northern Arizona lightly. Even if they do play the Fighters in Vegas, Bay Area is one of only two teams to have handed a loss to the Fighters all season long (Massachusetts being the other). Of course, they could also get bailed out by another upset special if Sioux Falls finds more magic and takes down the Fighters, which in theory would turn Bay Area into a decisive favorite.
Good luck to all you bettors out there! Let’s print out the big bucks!!
**UPDATED 7/27/23, 5:25 PM ET