Post by alecs on Aug 2, 2023 7:00:46 GMT -8
Happy Wednesday, IFL Fans!
Welcome to Volume XIX of my "Wager Wednesday" bit, in which I take a deep dive into the Dollar Loan Center 2023 IFL National Championship Game, based on lines and odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. As an advocate of accountability, I will recap my results - whether genius or moronic - from last week’s Conference Finals as well. With that, let's see how my picks from last week turned out:
• SXF @ FRI – UNDER 96.5 (Don’t let the 45-44 score mislead you; this game had more than its fair share of impactful defensive plays. In retrospect, all of those fourth down stands and takeaways made all the difference in the world to see this wager through. The teams combined for five turnovers, which does not include fourth down stops, as Sioux Falls once again battled back from a 20-point deficit to upstage the top-seeded Frisco Fighters. Kurtiss Riggs and Lorenzo Brown have guided their farewell tour all the way to its desired final destination – in Henderson, Nevada – pulling out the improbable 45-44 victory in the Eastern Conference Final.) $10.00 paid $19.09
• NAZ @ BAY – UNDER 87.5 (Remember that whole part last week where I said an offensive outburst was unlikely? Those were good times. This was actually a moderately slow-paced game to start out, with the Panthers leading 14-12 at the one-minute warning. That’s when things started to get funky. 18 points within the final sixty seconds of the first half proved to be the tip of the iceberg, in a game that saw Bay Area starch the Wranglers defense for 68 points. Unsurprisingly, Northern Arizona’s offense could not keep pace, as their bid for a repeat falls short at the Western Conference Final. The Panthers will look to match the Wranglers “worst-to-first” run from last year with one of their own this year after their 68-46 win sends them off to Vegas.)
Just like last week, last Saturday’s slate of games turns out to be an even split. We won our East Final bet and dropped the one out West, again operating at a small net loss for the week. I didn’t shoot for any of the upset special moneylines this past week, but congrats to anyone who had the guts and/or pure defiance to pick Sioux Falls straight up for the exciting +240 payout! A set of $10 bets on each of these would have returned $19.09, translating into a net loss of $0.91 for the Conference Finals. Overall this season (including playoffs), I am 58-of-103 (58-45) with a total result of roughly $138.70 of net gain. Regardless of how things pan out on Saturday, we can certainly qualify 2023 as a smashing success for our maiden voyage of IFL betting! Anytime where you can string together a record of more wins than losses – especially in the betting world – that’s an outcome that I am thrilled with every time!
YTD Breakdown of wagers by type:
Over/Under: 18-of-33 (54.5% success rate, +$13.64 net profit)
Spreads: 25-of-44 (56.8% success rate, +$37.26 net profit)
Moneyline: 15-of-26 (57.7% success rate, +$87.80 net profit)
Before we fully revel in our past successes, let’s give it our best shot to produce one final win before closing the IFL books on 2023! Obviously, since the Championship game is the last one remaining, I’ll be producing a more extensive analysis and recaps on the players and teams who will be competing for glory on Saturday afternoon. For a complete comprehensive guide to the game, I'd recommend checking out Nevadanut's IFL Championship preview here. Now, Starting with our Eastern Conference Champions…
SIOUX FALLS STORM
2023 Regular Season Record: 9-6 (#2 seed in East)
Semifinal Win: 42-39 vs. #3 Massachusetts
Conference Final Win: 45-44 @ #1 Frisco
Notable Offensive Performers:
QB Lorenzo Brown: 181/318, 2265 yds, 46 TD, 11 INT
RB Xavier Jackson 82 rush, 306 yds, 13 TD
WR Donnie Corley, Jr.: 57 rec, 819 yds, 21 TD
Notable Defensive Performers:
DL Daryle Banfield: 4 sacks
DB Eugene Ford: 8 INT
Whether you’ve been a fan of the IFL for a year or a lifetime, you’ve probably heard at least part of the legend of the Sioux Falls Storm. Since even before the league’s inception, they have almost monopolized the trophy room, taking home 11 championships to date, and looking to add yet another this weekend. This year’s playoff path has been a unique and memorable one, though, relying on resilience, an opportunistic approach, and an absolute refusal to surrender in making their appearance in Saturday’s contest. In both of their prior playoff games against Massachusetts and Frisco, Sioux Falls faced a deficit of at least 20 points, and in both instances found lightning in a bottle in the second half to rip the hearts out of both proud franchises. If they’re able to complete the trifecta with a win over the Panthers, this could very easily be the most impressive of Sioux Falls’ comprehensive collection of championships, based solely on how heavy of an underdog they were entering the tournament. To provide context, when I ran my postseason model a couple weeks ago, Sioux Falls only made it this far in just over 10% of simulations. Let that be a reminder of how incredibly special this run has been – and what it could hold in the not-too-distant future.
BAY AREA PANTHERS
2023 Regular Season Record: 10-5 (#2 seed in West)
Semifinal Win: 46-34 vs. #3 Tucson
Conference Final Win: 68-46 vs. #4 Northern Arizona
Notable Offensive Performers:
QB Dalton Sneed: 166/246, 2057 yds, 47 TD, 3 INT
RB Justin Rankin: 202 rush, 878 yds, 44 TD
WR J.T. Stokes: 67 rec, 802 yds, 25 TD
Notable Defensive Performers:
DL Tevaughn Grant: 7 sacks
DB Trae Meadows: 5 INT
A lot of attention will be spent on Sioux Falls and their amazing streak to get to this game, but the Bay Area Panthers offer the perfect yin-yang comparison when looking at these two opponents side-by-side. The Panthers’ sophomore campaign, needless to say, has gone far better than last year’s lifeless 1-15 showing. They put in a lot of work last offseason in re-vamping the entire franchise, from ownership group to coaches all the way down to players. The team signed all-IFL running back Justin Rankin and traded for Dalton Sneed, who notably played last season for… you guessed it! Sioux Falls!! That alone should make for an absolutely wonderful #RevengeGame narrative. The team also found gems on the defensive side of the ball, including Tevaughn Grant on the defensive line and Marquise Bridges and Trae Meadows overseeing the secondary. Add it all up, and you have a team more than capable of becoming the second consecutive IFL Champion to win the title after finishing the prior season with just one victory.
*Odds and lines shown are at time of posting. They will be updated prior to kickoff if they change; however, any net gain/loss calculations will use the original values.
Saturday 8/5, 4:05 PM ET: #2 Sioux Falls (11-6) vs. #2 Bay Area (12-5)
Alec’s Power Ranking Model Prediction: Bay Area 59% chance to win
Spread: Bay Area -6
Over/Under: 94
Moneyline: Sioux Falls +150, Bay Area -175
Recommended Plays: Sioux Falls +6 Spread, UNDER 94, Sioux Falls +150 Moneyline
The Pick: Sioux Falls +6 Spread
Listen, this run we have strung together was constructed with the philosophy of blending optimal value with realistic chances of winning the wager. Yeah, I could select Bay Area moneyline as the highest likelihood to pay out, but we’ve seen on multiple occasions this postseason that no result can be viewed as a lock, plus I’ve intentionally stayed away from bets with higher than 15% juice (and honestly I see more value with the "Blackjack" payout of +150 for Sioux Falls). What I can predict with a high degree of confidence is that this will be a very close Championship, one that goes right down to the wire. No IFL Championship/United Bowl since 2017 has been decided by more than four points, and the Storm have proven their ability to climb out of some pretty deep holes to not just secure the cover, but also straight up victory. The major question in this game for me is whether the Storm defense has any sort of chance to slow down Bay Area, who are fresh off a 68-point mauling of an elite Wranglers defense last week. I feel confident in the Storm's ability on this front, because we've seen them hold down two elite offenses already en route to this appearance, so matching up against Bay Area theoretically serves as a lateral move more than anything else in terms of level of competition. I also believe that this game comes short of the 94-point projection, but I don’t want to be that person who bets the Under in the Title Game, either. It’s basically synonymous with playing “the dark side” at the Craps table, just a frowned upon decision! The implied score for this game is 50-44 Panthers, based on the odds above, and my model projects a Sioux Falls cover in roughly 57% of simulations. That’s the bet that appears to have the biggest player edge, so I’m going to take the points and see if the Kurtiss Riggs/Lorenzo Brown farewell tour receives the magical storybook ending that would only be described as fitting.
For the final time this season, I wish you all the best of luck in your wagering endeavors! Let’s print out the big bucks one more time before we set our sights on 2024!
Welcome to Volume XIX of my "Wager Wednesday" bit, in which I take a deep dive into the Dollar Loan Center 2023 IFL National Championship Game, based on lines and odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. As an advocate of accountability, I will recap my results - whether genius or moronic - from last week’s Conference Finals as well. With that, let's see how my picks from last week turned out:
• SXF @ FRI – UNDER 96.5 (Don’t let the 45-44 score mislead you; this game had more than its fair share of impactful defensive plays. In retrospect, all of those fourth down stands and takeaways made all the difference in the world to see this wager through. The teams combined for five turnovers, which does not include fourth down stops, as Sioux Falls once again battled back from a 20-point deficit to upstage the top-seeded Frisco Fighters. Kurtiss Riggs and Lorenzo Brown have guided their farewell tour all the way to its desired final destination – in Henderson, Nevada – pulling out the improbable 45-44 victory in the Eastern Conference Final.) $10.00 paid $19.09
• NAZ @ BAY – UNDER 87.5 (Remember that whole part last week where I said an offensive outburst was unlikely? Those were good times. This was actually a moderately slow-paced game to start out, with the Panthers leading 14-12 at the one-minute warning. That’s when things started to get funky. 18 points within the final sixty seconds of the first half proved to be the tip of the iceberg, in a game that saw Bay Area starch the Wranglers defense for 68 points. Unsurprisingly, Northern Arizona’s offense could not keep pace, as their bid for a repeat falls short at the Western Conference Final. The Panthers will look to match the Wranglers “worst-to-first” run from last year with one of their own this year after their 68-46 win sends them off to Vegas.)
Just like last week, last Saturday’s slate of games turns out to be an even split. We won our East Final bet and dropped the one out West, again operating at a small net loss for the week. I didn’t shoot for any of the upset special moneylines this past week, but congrats to anyone who had the guts and/or pure defiance to pick Sioux Falls straight up for the exciting +240 payout! A set of $10 bets on each of these would have returned $19.09, translating into a net loss of $0.91 for the Conference Finals. Overall this season (including playoffs), I am 58-of-103 (58-45) with a total result of roughly $138.70 of net gain. Regardless of how things pan out on Saturday, we can certainly qualify 2023 as a smashing success for our maiden voyage of IFL betting! Anytime where you can string together a record of more wins than losses – especially in the betting world – that’s an outcome that I am thrilled with every time!
YTD Breakdown of wagers by type:
Over/Under: 18-of-33 (54.5% success rate, +$13.64 net profit)
Spreads: 25-of-44 (56.8% success rate, +$37.26 net profit)
Moneyline: 15-of-26 (57.7% success rate, +$87.80 net profit)
Before we fully revel in our past successes, let’s give it our best shot to produce one final win before closing the IFL books on 2023! Obviously, since the Championship game is the last one remaining, I’ll be producing a more extensive analysis and recaps on the players and teams who will be competing for glory on Saturday afternoon. For a complete comprehensive guide to the game, I'd recommend checking out Nevadanut's IFL Championship preview here. Now, Starting with our Eastern Conference Champions…
SIOUX FALLS STORM
2023 Regular Season Record: 9-6 (#2 seed in East)
Semifinal Win: 42-39 vs. #3 Massachusetts
Conference Final Win: 45-44 @ #1 Frisco
Notable Offensive Performers:
QB Lorenzo Brown: 181/318, 2265 yds, 46 TD, 11 INT
RB Xavier Jackson 82 rush, 306 yds, 13 TD
WR Donnie Corley, Jr.: 57 rec, 819 yds, 21 TD
Notable Defensive Performers:
DL Daryle Banfield: 4 sacks
DB Eugene Ford: 8 INT
Whether you’ve been a fan of the IFL for a year or a lifetime, you’ve probably heard at least part of the legend of the Sioux Falls Storm. Since even before the league’s inception, they have almost monopolized the trophy room, taking home 11 championships to date, and looking to add yet another this weekend. This year’s playoff path has been a unique and memorable one, though, relying on resilience, an opportunistic approach, and an absolute refusal to surrender in making their appearance in Saturday’s contest. In both of their prior playoff games against Massachusetts and Frisco, Sioux Falls faced a deficit of at least 20 points, and in both instances found lightning in a bottle in the second half to rip the hearts out of both proud franchises. If they’re able to complete the trifecta with a win over the Panthers, this could very easily be the most impressive of Sioux Falls’ comprehensive collection of championships, based solely on how heavy of an underdog they were entering the tournament. To provide context, when I ran my postseason model a couple weeks ago, Sioux Falls only made it this far in just over 10% of simulations. Let that be a reminder of how incredibly special this run has been – and what it could hold in the not-too-distant future.
BAY AREA PANTHERS
2023 Regular Season Record: 10-5 (#2 seed in West)
Semifinal Win: 46-34 vs. #3 Tucson
Conference Final Win: 68-46 vs. #4 Northern Arizona
Notable Offensive Performers:
QB Dalton Sneed: 166/246, 2057 yds, 47 TD, 3 INT
RB Justin Rankin: 202 rush, 878 yds, 44 TD
WR J.T. Stokes: 67 rec, 802 yds, 25 TD
Notable Defensive Performers:
DL Tevaughn Grant: 7 sacks
DB Trae Meadows: 5 INT
A lot of attention will be spent on Sioux Falls and their amazing streak to get to this game, but the Bay Area Panthers offer the perfect yin-yang comparison when looking at these two opponents side-by-side. The Panthers’ sophomore campaign, needless to say, has gone far better than last year’s lifeless 1-15 showing. They put in a lot of work last offseason in re-vamping the entire franchise, from ownership group to coaches all the way down to players. The team signed all-IFL running back Justin Rankin and traded for Dalton Sneed, who notably played last season for… you guessed it! Sioux Falls!! That alone should make for an absolutely wonderful #RevengeGame narrative. The team also found gems on the defensive side of the ball, including Tevaughn Grant on the defensive line and Marquise Bridges and Trae Meadows overseeing the secondary. Add it all up, and you have a team more than capable of becoming the second consecutive IFL Champion to win the title after finishing the prior season with just one victory.
*Odds and lines shown are at time of posting. They will be updated prior to kickoff if they change; however, any net gain/loss calculations will use the original values.
Saturday 8/5, 4:05 PM ET: #2 Sioux Falls (11-6) vs. #2 Bay Area (12-5)
Alec’s Power Ranking Model Prediction: Bay Area 59% chance to win
Spread: Bay Area -6
Over/Under: 94
Moneyline: Sioux Falls +150, Bay Area -175
Recommended Plays: Sioux Falls +6 Spread, UNDER 94, Sioux Falls +150 Moneyline
The Pick: Sioux Falls +6 Spread
Listen, this run we have strung together was constructed with the philosophy of blending optimal value with realistic chances of winning the wager. Yeah, I could select Bay Area moneyline as the highest likelihood to pay out, but we’ve seen on multiple occasions this postseason that no result can be viewed as a lock, plus I’ve intentionally stayed away from bets with higher than 15% juice (and honestly I see more value with the "Blackjack" payout of +150 for Sioux Falls). What I can predict with a high degree of confidence is that this will be a very close Championship, one that goes right down to the wire. No IFL Championship/United Bowl since 2017 has been decided by more than four points, and the Storm have proven their ability to climb out of some pretty deep holes to not just secure the cover, but also straight up victory. The major question in this game for me is whether the Storm defense has any sort of chance to slow down Bay Area, who are fresh off a 68-point mauling of an elite Wranglers defense last week. I feel confident in the Storm's ability on this front, because we've seen them hold down two elite offenses already en route to this appearance, so matching up against Bay Area theoretically serves as a lateral move more than anything else in terms of level of competition. I also believe that this game comes short of the 94-point projection, but I don’t want to be that person who bets the Under in the Title Game, either. It’s basically synonymous with playing “the dark side” at the Craps table, just a frowned upon decision! The implied score for this game is 50-44 Panthers, based on the odds above, and my model projects a Sioux Falls cover in roughly 57% of simulations. That’s the bet that appears to have the biggest player edge, so I’m going to take the points and see if the Kurtiss Riggs/Lorenzo Brown farewell tour receives the magical storybook ending that would only be described as fitting.
For the final time this season, I wish you all the best of luck in your wagering endeavors! Let’s print out the big bucks one more time before we set our sights on 2024!