Post by alecs on Aug 9, 2023 8:34:55 GMT -8
Happy Wednesday, IFL Fans!
Welcome to Volume XX of my "Wager Wednesday" bit. In today’s post, I figured it would be a fun idea to reflect on the wacky escapades we had during the 2023 season. It was an amazingly profitable run for the 2023 season – even with a late start in Week 3 as DraftKings Sportsbook had yet to be officially legalized in my home state of Massachusetts. In reviewing the game-by-game decisions I made - the best, worst, and everything in between – what lessons can I learn that may help me build on my success for 2024 and beyond?
First, let’s quickly recap last week’s IFL Championship Game, which the Panthers won 51-41 over the Storm to take home the title. I had picked Sioux Falls as a 6-point underdog to cover the spread, which was incorrect. This was a game that Bay Area actually led wire-to-wire, but Sioux Falls stayed persistent and kept themselves within striking distance for the majority of the game. The defining moment occurred midway through the fourth quarter, when Lorenzo Brown got pick-sixed by Marquise Bridges to put Bay Area ahead by 17. Despite that, though, the Storm got the ball back with less than ten seconds left, providing one more shot for a miraculous backdoor cover. But Brown’s Hail Mary came ten yards short of the goal line, and the wobbling pass ended up being intercepted to seal the deal. So we end the postseason with a 3-4 playoff record and a $12.73 postseason net loss. For the full season, my bets accumulated a record of 58 wins and 46 losses, totaling a net profit of $128.70 (almost 13 full units) in the process. Our total return of interest was 12.37%!
Now, on to analyzing the rest of 2023! Let’s start with some of the picks I had made that turned out to be the most profitable single-game hits of the season. I will also pull in my analysis from that week’s post and offer a retrospective on my thought process. Here were the Top 5 wagers of 2023 in terms of profitability
• #5: Week 3 – Tucson @ San Diego [Bet on Tucson ML, $10.00 won $25.50]
o “We have yet to see the Skulls play this year, which makes them an intriguing roll-of-the-dice as a road upset pick. SD nearly came back last week to steal a win from Quad City, but this still looks like a team figuring out how to win games.”
• #4: Week 8 – Northern Arizona @ Tucson [Bet on NAZ ML, $10.00 won $26.50]
o “These teams went toe-to-toe in last year’s playoffs and look to be on a collision course for another postseason encounter come July. Saturday’s showdown will mark the end of a 3-game road stand for the Wranglers, while Tucson had a bye last week, giving them two weeks to recuperate after a startling double-OT loss against San Diego. It’s a bit shocking to me to see such an evenly-matched game on paper favor one team by this much, even though Tucson is at home. That makes a straight up Wrangler win a very attractive bet to me, give me NAZ for a second straight road win.”
• #3: Week 5 – Tucson @ Bay Area [Bet on Tucson ML, $10.00 won $27.00]
o “If you’re a fan of the running game in indoor football, then boy do I have the game for you! Between Ramone Atkins and Mike Jones for Tucson, and Dalton Sneed and Justin Rankin for Bay Area, there should be plenty of opportunities for the ground-and-pound enthusiasts to enjoy. The game may come down to the classic adage “Whichever defense comes up with the most stops will win”, which both teams have demonstrated the ability to accomplish this season. I’ll put my dollars and my faith in Tucson as a value moneyline option, who actually started this week at +170 ML.”
• #2: Week 14 – San Diego @ Tucson [Bet on San Diego ML, $10.00 won $29.00]
o “San Diego and Tucson will tussle in the “Bone Yard” for the third and final installment of the season series, with the road team having won both prior outings. Both these teams have kept their respective fanbases on the edge of their seats recently; Tucson’s last two games have been wins by one and four points, where San Diego’s last two games have been a one-point win and a two-point loss. Unless one of the teams either rises way above or falls completely flat, it’s hard to see this game gravitating out of reach for either team. San Diego is suddenly running thin on time and opportunities to claw their way back into the playoff conversation, which should drive them to set the tone as the more desperate team. Anybody will tell you that I like my trifectas, so let’s speak a third road win of the series into existence! Strike Force Strikes!”
• #1: Week 7- Quad City @ Sioux Falls [Bet on Sioux Falls ML, $10.00 won $30.00]
o “These two teams match up for the 2nd time this season, with the Steamwheelers narrowly edging out the Storm 36-34 in Moline a few weeks ago. Now with South Dakota as the venue for the game, I see lots of value here picking the Storm outright. It is risky picking against a Quad City team on a 4-game winning streak, but two of those wins were against a pre-Nate Davis San Diego and expansion Tulsa, and they needed a late touchdown to barely sneak by Mass at home last week. Very justifiable triple-your-money dart throw in my opinion. On a separate note, Lorenzo Brown versus E.J. Hilliard might be the best head-to-head QB matchup this week.”
Unsurprisingly in retrospect, the Tucson Sugar Skulls show up four times in these five highest payouts, and shockingly we picked for them in both road wins and against them in both home losses. Their unexpectedly opposite home-road split for 2023 was well-documented by IFL fans and analysts, and I am glad that looking back on the season we were able to ride the abnormalities pretty close to perfectly. These moneyline wagers were practically my bread and butter all season long and contributed heavily to my ending net profit amount.
Other notable hits included the following:
• Week 5: Duke City @ Arizona – Arizona ML +115
• Week 6: Northern Arizona @ Bay Area – Bay Area ML +115
• Week 10: Quad City @ Massachusetts – Massachusetts ML +125
• Week 12: Tucson @ Vegas – Tucson ML +125
• Week 17: Massachusetts @ Northern Arizona – Northern Arizona ML +125
Most Impressive “Over” victories
• Week 17: San Diego @ Bay Area – OVER 101.5
• Week 13: Frisco @ Sioux Falls – OVER 100.5
• Week 7: Arizona @ Tucson – OVER 95.5
Most Impressive “Under” victories
• Western Semifinal: Tucson @ Bay Area – UNDER 91.5
• Week 8: Duke City @ Frisco – UNDER 94.5
• Eastern Final: Sioux Falls @ Frisco – UNDER 96.5
Best Favorites Spread victories
• Week 4: Tulsa @ Duke City – Duke City -14.5
• Week 12: Duke City @ Bay Area – Bay Area -12.5
• Week 15: Tulsa @ Massachusetts – Massachusetts -12.5
Best Underdog Spread victories
• Week 7: Iowa @ Massachusetts – Iowa +21.5
• Week 9: Massachusetts @ Iowa – Iowa +21.5
• Week 11: San Diego @ Frisco – San Diego +16.5
• Week 3: Vegas @ Northern Arizona – Northern Arizona +13.5
• Week 10: Frisco @ Bay Area – Bay Area +13.5
A really nice sample of some pretty heady victories, with some awesome moneylines, contrarian spreads, and solid guesses at point totals headlining the string of victories we compiled. But not all was perfect, as some of these decisions proved to be flat out wrong. Some of these haphazard examples include the following:
• Week 3: Frisco @ Duke City – Duke City +350 ML (Gladiators lost 60-55)
• Eastern Semifinal: Quad City @ Frisco – Quad City +275 ML (Steamwheelers lost 57-29)
• Week 5: Massachusetts @ Frisco – Massachusetts +220 ML (Pirates lost 56-39)
• Week 12: Arizona @ Northern Arizona – Northern Arizona +160 ML (Wranglers lost 63-62 in OT)
• Week 9: Sioux Falls @ Quad City – Sioux Falls +140 ML (Storm lost 47-30)
• Week 5: Quad City @ Tulsa – Tulsa +17.5 Spread (Oilers lost 68-42)
• Week 18: Frisco @ Iowa – Iowa +13.5 Spread (Barnstormers lost 51-35)
• Week 9: Frisco @ Tulsa – Frisco -30.5 Spread (Fighters won 39-37, did not cover)
• Week 6: San Diego @ Tucson – Tucson -14.5 Spread (Sugar Skulls lost 51-44 in OT)
• Week 17: Sioux Falls @ Iowa – Sioux Falls -12.5 Spread (Storm won 54-47, did not cover)
• Week 11: Northern Arizona @ Duke City – UNDER 79.5 (Gladiators won 47-40, 87 total points)
• Week 5: Green Bay @ Sioux Falls – UNDER 85.5 (Blizzard won 47-41, 88 total points)
• Week 8: Vegas @ Bay Area – UNDER 86.5 (Panthers won 62-44, 106 total points)
• Week 15: Bay Area @ Frisco – OVER 108.5 (Fighters won 45-38, 83 total points)
• Week 11: Vegas @ Arizona – OVER 103.5 (Rattlers won 63-39, 102 total points)
• Week 13: Vegas @ Massachusetts – OVER 102.5 (Pirates won 49-28, 77 total points)
Collectively, what we can learn from the over/under wagers is that anything below 88 or above 102 is essentially a crapshoot, regardless of the two teams facing off. Based on this season's sample, it's more worthwhile to bet the Over if the total is set under 88, and the Under if the total is over 102. That will be worth reflecting on for next season, but we will also need to keep an eye out for any possible rule changes in 2024 that could affect how stoutly we stick with that belief.
As far as spreads go, I’d say that a 16.5-point favorite would have to be the largest spread I would take if betting on a favorite to win. We saw on a bunch of instances this season that IFL Football has the capability of looking like a blowout, but actually turns out to be somewhat close. Conversely, we selected three underdogs this season at +16.5 or higher, and those turned out great.
To conclude, I want to thank everybody who read along throughout the season – whether you started early in the season or later – your support and interest is much appreciated! I’m excited to run this segment back for next season!
Welcome to Volume XX of my "Wager Wednesday" bit. In today’s post, I figured it would be a fun idea to reflect on the wacky escapades we had during the 2023 season. It was an amazingly profitable run for the 2023 season – even with a late start in Week 3 as DraftKings Sportsbook had yet to be officially legalized in my home state of Massachusetts. In reviewing the game-by-game decisions I made - the best, worst, and everything in between – what lessons can I learn that may help me build on my success for 2024 and beyond?
First, let’s quickly recap last week’s IFL Championship Game, which the Panthers won 51-41 over the Storm to take home the title. I had picked Sioux Falls as a 6-point underdog to cover the spread, which was incorrect. This was a game that Bay Area actually led wire-to-wire, but Sioux Falls stayed persistent and kept themselves within striking distance for the majority of the game. The defining moment occurred midway through the fourth quarter, when Lorenzo Brown got pick-sixed by Marquise Bridges to put Bay Area ahead by 17. Despite that, though, the Storm got the ball back with less than ten seconds left, providing one more shot for a miraculous backdoor cover. But Brown’s Hail Mary came ten yards short of the goal line, and the wobbling pass ended up being intercepted to seal the deal. So we end the postseason with a 3-4 playoff record and a $12.73 postseason net loss. For the full season, my bets accumulated a record of 58 wins and 46 losses, totaling a net profit of $128.70 (almost 13 full units) in the process. Our total return of interest was 12.37%!
Now, on to analyzing the rest of 2023! Let’s start with some of the picks I had made that turned out to be the most profitable single-game hits of the season. I will also pull in my analysis from that week’s post and offer a retrospective on my thought process. Here were the Top 5 wagers of 2023 in terms of profitability
• #5: Week 3 – Tucson @ San Diego [Bet on Tucson ML, $10.00 won $25.50]
o “We have yet to see the Skulls play this year, which makes them an intriguing roll-of-the-dice as a road upset pick. SD nearly came back last week to steal a win from Quad City, but this still looks like a team figuring out how to win games.”
• #4: Week 8 – Northern Arizona @ Tucson [Bet on NAZ ML, $10.00 won $26.50]
o “These teams went toe-to-toe in last year’s playoffs and look to be on a collision course for another postseason encounter come July. Saturday’s showdown will mark the end of a 3-game road stand for the Wranglers, while Tucson had a bye last week, giving them two weeks to recuperate after a startling double-OT loss against San Diego. It’s a bit shocking to me to see such an evenly-matched game on paper favor one team by this much, even though Tucson is at home. That makes a straight up Wrangler win a very attractive bet to me, give me NAZ for a second straight road win.”
• #3: Week 5 – Tucson @ Bay Area [Bet on Tucson ML, $10.00 won $27.00]
o “If you’re a fan of the running game in indoor football, then boy do I have the game for you! Between Ramone Atkins and Mike Jones for Tucson, and Dalton Sneed and Justin Rankin for Bay Area, there should be plenty of opportunities for the ground-and-pound enthusiasts to enjoy. The game may come down to the classic adage “Whichever defense comes up with the most stops will win”, which both teams have demonstrated the ability to accomplish this season. I’ll put my dollars and my faith in Tucson as a value moneyline option, who actually started this week at +170 ML.”
• #2: Week 14 – San Diego @ Tucson [Bet on San Diego ML, $10.00 won $29.00]
o “San Diego and Tucson will tussle in the “Bone Yard” for the third and final installment of the season series, with the road team having won both prior outings. Both these teams have kept their respective fanbases on the edge of their seats recently; Tucson’s last two games have been wins by one and four points, where San Diego’s last two games have been a one-point win and a two-point loss. Unless one of the teams either rises way above or falls completely flat, it’s hard to see this game gravitating out of reach for either team. San Diego is suddenly running thin on time and opportunities to claw their way back into the playoff conversation, which should drive them to set the tone as the more desperate team. Anybody will tell you that I like my trifectas, so let’s speak a third road win of the series into existence! Strike Force Strikes!”
• #1: Week 7- Quad City @ Sioux Falls [Bet on Sioux Falls ML, $10.00 won $30.00]
o “These two teams match up for the 2nd time this season, with the Steamwheelers narrowly edging out the Storm 36-34 in Moline a few weeks ago. Now with South Dakota as the venue for the game, I see lots of value here picking the Storm outright. It is risky picking against a Quad City team on a 4-game winning streak, but two of those wins were against a pre-Nate Davis San Diego and expansion Tulsa, and they needed a late touchdown to barely sneak by Mass at home last week. Very justifiable triple-your-money dart throw in my opinion. On a separate note, Lorenzo Brown versus E.J. Hilliard might be the best head-to-head QB matchup this week.”
Unsurprisingly in retrospect, the Tucson Sugar Skulls show up four times in these five highest payouts, and shockingly we picked for them in both road wins and against them in both home losses. Their unexpectedly opposite home-road split for 2023 was well-documented by IFL fans and analysts, and I am glad that looking back on the season we were able to ride the abnormalities pretty close to perfectly. These moneyline wagers were practically my bread and butter all season long and contributed heavily to my ending net profit amount.
Other notable hits included the following:
• Week 5: Duke City @ Arizona – Arizona ML +115
• Week 6: Northern Arizona @ Bay Area – Bay Area ML +115
• Week 10: Quad City @ Massachusetts – Massachusetts ML +125
• Week 12: Tucson @ Vegas – Tucson ML +125
• Week 17: Massachusetts @ Northern Arizona – Northern Arizona ML +125
Most Impressive “Over” victories
• Week 17: San Diego @ Bay Area – OVER 101.5
• Week 13: Frisco @ Sioux Falls – OVER 100.5
• Week 7: Arizona @ Tucson – OVER 95.5
Most Impressive “Under” victories
• Western Semifinal: Tucson @ Bay Area – UNDER 91.5
• Week 8: Duke City @ Frisco – UNDER 94.5
• Eastern Final: Sioux Falls @ Frisco – UNDER 96.5
Best Favorites Spread victories
• Week 4: Tulsa @ Duke City – Duke City -14.5
• Week 12: Duke City @ Bay Area – Bay Area -12.5
• Week 15: Tulsa @ Massachusetts – Massachusetts -12.5
Best Underdog Spread victories
• Week 7: Iowa @ Massachusetts – Iowa +21.5
• Week 9: Massachusetts @ Iowa – Iowa +21.5
• Week 11: San Diego @ Frisco – San Diego +16.5
• Week 3: Vegas @ Northern Arizona – Northern Arizona +13.5
• Week 10: Frisco @ Bay Area – Bay Area +13.5
A really nice sample of some pretty heady victories, with some awesome moneylines, contrarian spreads, and solid guesses at point totals headlining the string of victories we compiled. But not all was perfect, as some of these decisions proved to be flat out wrong. Some of these haphazard examples include the following:
• Week 3: Frisco @ Duke City – Duke City +350 ML (Gladiators lost 60-55)
• Eastern Semifinal: Quad City @ Frisco – Quad City +275 ML (Steamwheelers lost 57-29)
• Week 5: Massachusetts @ Frisco – Massachusetts +220 ML (Pirates lost 56-39)
• Week 12: Arizona @ Northern Arizona – Northern Arizona +160 ML (Wranglers lost 63-62 in OT)
• Week 9: Sioux Falls @ Quad City – Sioux Falls +140 ML (Storm lost 47-30)
• Week 5: Quad City @ Tulsa – Tulsa +17.5 Spread (Oilers lost 68-42)
• Week 18: Frisco @ Iowa – Iowa +13.5 Spread (Barnstormers lost 51-35)
• Week 9: Frisco @ Tulsa – Frisco -30.5 Spread (Fighters won 39-37, did not cover)
• Week 6: San Diego @ Tucson – Tucson -14.5 Spread (Sugar Skulls lost 51-44 in OT)
• Week 17: Sioux Falls @ Iowa – Sioux Falls -12.5 Spread (Storm won 54-47, did not cover)
• Week 11: Northern Arizona @ Duke City – UNDER 79.5 (Gladiators won 47-40, 87 total points)
• Week 5: Green Bay @ Sioux Falls – UNDER 85.5 (Blizzard won 47-41, 88 total points)
• Week 8: Vegas @ Bay Area – UNDER 86.5 (Panthers won 62-44, 106 total points)
• Week 15: Bay Area @ Frisco – OVER 108.5 (Fighters won 45-38, 83 total points)
• Week 11: Vegas @ Arizona – OVER 103.5 (Rattlers won 63-39, 102 total points)
• Week 13: Vegas @ Massachusetts – OVER 102.5 (Pirates won 49-28, 77 total points)
Collectively, what we can learn from the over/under wagers is that anything below 88 or above 102 is essentially a crapshoot, regardless of the two teams facing off. Based on this season's sample, it's more worthwhile to bet the Over if the total is set under 88, and the Under if the total is over 102. That will be worth reflecting on for next season, but we will also need to keep an eye out for any possible rule changes in 2024 that could affect how stoutly we stick with that belief.
As far as spreads go, I’d say that a 16.5-point favorite would have to be the largest spread I would take if betting on a favorite to win. We saw on a bunch of instances this season that IFL Football has the capability of looking like a blowout, but actually turns out to be somewhat close. Conversely, we selected three underdogs this season at +16.5 or higher, and those turned out great.
To conclude, I want to thank everybody who read along throughout the season – whether you started early in the season or later – your support and interest is much appreciated! I’m excited to run this segment back for next season!