Post by spiderfan on Oct 31, 2023 21:52:20 GMT -8
Happy Halloween Sports Coast to Coast, Spiderfan the official NFL analyst of the great forum here, coming to you with the Week 8 edition of Red Hot Gridiron. Without further ado, let us begin!
The Battle of New York featuring Reducto!
The New York Jets and New York Football Tinys only meet once every 4 years (like Cowboys-Texans and just like Cowboys-Texans it should be a yearly rivalry game instead of once every 4 years affair) and 4 years ago their matchup did not get a segment. Not this time, oh no, I would be remiss if I didn't give its own segment. What is different about this time (outside of a large amount of players, coaching staff, front office personnel, and even ownership)? Well before we get to that difference let me properly set the stage for that difference.
You know those ugly low scoring games between inept offenses played in garbage weather between Big 10 schools who would be Group of 5 or FCS schools if it weren't for Ohio State producing the conference's TV revenue? Yeah Jets-Tinys was one of those kind of games. Despite the injury to backup QB Tyrod Taylor, it appeared for most of the game at least, that the ugly low scoring style would end up benefiting the Tinys. After all, it wasn't as if Jets QB Zach Wilson was building on his above average recent performances and having some kind of breakout big statistic type of game, and with the Tinys having Saquon Barkley, someone who is experienced in Big 10 style football, a Tinys win wasn't out of the question. In fact according into ESPN win probability a Jets win, was out of the question barring some type of miraculous turn of events. With 1:19 left in the game, Tinys with the ball in the redzone at the 20 yard line, 2nd and 4, Jets having only one timeout remaining, the Tinys had a 99.9 percent chance of winning the game or to rephrase from the Jets perspective, the Jets had a .01 percent of winning the game. And that's where the aforementioned difference in this version of The Battle of New York comes in:
The Tinys win percentage shrunk to 95.7 on the next play from scrimmage a Saquon Barkley run that resulted in only a one yard gain, making it 3rd and 3 at the 19 yard line, and forcing the Jets to take their last timeout with 1:14 left in the game. The resulting play would end up in a slight increase in win probability 96.1 percent, the last time the Tinys would experience an increase in win probability in the game, 4th and 1 at the 17 yard line with 28 seconds the Jets having no timeouts. With the score being 10-7 in favor of the Tinys, a made FG would result in the Jets being forced to drive the entire length of the field to score a TD, barring sometime type of kick return for a TD. The FG for Tinys K Graham Gano was a 35 yarder, only a little longer than an extra point. It was NO GOOD. So instead of needing a TD, all the Jets needed was a FG. However, with no timeouts and less than 30 seconds remaining at the 25 yard line, the Jets needed to go down most of the field to get into FG range.
The first play for the Jets was a 29 yard gain on a Jets QB Zach Wilson pass to Jets WR Garrett Wilson, which because it was caught in bounds should have resulted in a significant loss of clock with the Jets being out of timeouts, except Tinys DE Kayvon Thibodeaux was offsides, meaning that the clock stopped at 17 seconds with the Jets having passed midfield. The Tinys win probability shrank to 61.4 percent. It would then go down to 54.8 percent after an insane play where Jets QB Zach Wilson ran to his right, threw downfield to Jets WR Allen Lazard, who managed to get some yards after catch, and the Jets somehow got the ball spiked in time with 1 second remaining on the game clock. Jets K Greg Zuerlein had his own 35 yard FG where unlike Graham Gano, it was GOOD.
The Tinys had a chance to redeem themselves after winning the coin toss to start overtime, but that chance was quickly wasted after an offensive holding call on their offensive play of overtime, where I actually thought to myself "Well they aren't gaining the 20 yards they need, they might as well punt now" and they should have listened to me, because at least that would have quickened the loss by a couple plays. The Jets would get the ball after a Tinys three and out and have the win probability well in their favor for the rest of the game until they won on a FG that looked like it was WAY wide left, but somehow wasn't.
The Jets are now at 4-3, which is impressive considering that after Aaron Rodgers got hurt, the optimism around their team, at least from people on the outside, vanished. The Tinys are now at 2-6 putting them back at the bottom of the barrel of the league one season after it looked like they finally managed to get out of that barrel. Turns out they were too small.
The League is Crazy
I know I've talked about this numerous times before over the years, but I just can point how crazy the NFL is sometimes? And I'm not just talking about wild finishes here or individual upsets, I'm talking season type trends.
As I mentioned in the previous segment the Jets looked like they were going to be near the bottom of the league after Rodgers got hurt, and yet are above .500. A similar AFC team with that result? The Cincinnati Bengals who with a hurt Joe Burrow looked like they were just wasting precious snaps of Burrow's career in a futile attempt to win games that they weren't going to win with a QB who couldn't move. Now, Burrow is healthy and the Bengals are full steam ahead in being contenders in the AFC.
The Bengals opponent on Sunday was the 49ers who after being undefeated and regarded by people who aren't me as the best team in the whole league, have now lost not one, not two, but three straight games and are now below the Seahawks, a team being led by a guy who should be benched, in the NFC West. The team that was the second of the 49ers' three straight losses, the Minnesota Vikings are currently on a 3 game WIN streak, which is notable because they started 1-4 and with their schedule looked to be a team that had the potential to bottom out and rebuild. There was speculation that Vikings QB Kirk Cousins would be traded. He played his way out of that speculation and led the Vikings to an improbable 4-4 record. And in one of the worst instances of bad luck I've seen in writing this column, Cousins blew out his achilles tendon in the victory that got the Vikings to said 4-4 record, likely ending his time with the Vikings as Cousins is a free agent after this season. Crazy.
Other thoughts:
-I talked about this during my column about Super Bowl 57, but apparently it needs to be said again after the Bills-Buccaneers game: If it is a penalty, call it. The idea that pass interference doesn't get called on Hail Mary's because... of an unwritten rule that says pass interference is in fact NOT a penalty on Hail Mary type plays is absurd. Unless the league wants to change the rule to make it a written rule that pass interference is legal on Hail Mary's THROW THE FLAG!
-The Jaguars don't have a lot of fanfare or hype like they have had in previous years, but they are low key one of the best teams in the NFL, with a 6-2 record. If they beat the 49ers next week, expect the Jaguars to become that is talked about more in the national sports media complex. Heck, I'll probably end up talking about them here more often.
-The Eagles are worse than they were last year not just by the eyeball test, but by their record too, as last year at this time they were 8-0 and this year they are 7-1. Having said that, just like last year, in fact arguably even more so than last year, it feels like the Eagles are the best team in the NFL and deserving of the best record.
-I feel bad for the people without NFL Sunday Ticket or the ability to access games through the high seas for having to sit through a blowout Cowboys win, which is only going to feed further Cowboys hype which will inevitably lead to nothing.
-Will Levis had a better debut game than Desmond Ridder has ever played. If that isn't reason enough to keep Taylor Heinicke at QB for the Falcons, I don't know what is.
-I know they were the Oilers before they were the Titans, but it irritated me to see the Titans in Oiler regalia and their field Oilers themed. The Oilers were Houston's team and their history should belong to the Texans, not some team in Nashville.
-In a week of previously discussed craziness, the Dolphins predictable win against the Patriots felt refreshing.
-The Saints feel like the definition of mediocrity, which is exactly why they feel like the perfect team to go 9-8 or 8-9 and win the NFC South.
-The ROAD TO 0-17 is over. The Carolina Panthers have now won a football game. Congratulations to Bryce Young for his first win as a NFL QB!
-Call this salty all you like because that is an accurate interpretation of what I am about to say as a Chiefs fan: The Broncos should enjoy their win that convinces Sean Payton to not trade anyone and go 7-10 keeping them from rebuilding properly and continuing their near decade of sucking.
-JuJu Smith Schuster made the Chiefs a better team last year. He is by no means an elite WR, but he at least he was a real WR. Right now the Chiefs are trying to compete for a Super Bowl with a passing game that consists of Travis Kelce and a bunch of guys who are worse than the best WRs of the XFL.
-I think Kyler Murray is going to play for the Cardinals this year, despite their bad record. This is a team that plays every game tough, and certainly doesn't want to appear to be tanking.
-The Bears-Chargers game not being flexed out of Sunday Night Football was ridiculous. I know the LA based national sports media complex wants to feel good about their favorite team, but c'mon 2 under .500 teams playing on Sunday Night Football? Favoritism, if I have ever seen it.
-Maxx Crosby's career is going to be wasted and outside of Vegas largely forgotten about due to the Raiders suckage. I always feel bad for players like that.
-The Seahawks trading real draft capital (A 2nd rounder and a 5th rounder) for Dexter Lawrence, a guy who was a Pro Bowler and Second Team All-Pro member last season tells me that the Seahawks, however questionable their QB position is in my opinion, believe that they are contenders in the NFC.
-The Commanders trading Montez Sweat to the Bears shows me that the Bears aren't tanking and the Commanders trading Chase Young to the 49ers shows me that the 49ers still believe they are contenders in the NFC. Both trades show me that the Commanders are tanking.
And with all of that said that is all for this week's installment of Red Hot Gridiron. As always I hope ya enjoyed and I hope to see ya again next week! Have a fun and safe Halloween and be sure to remember that football is the greatest game in the world. This is spiderfan out.