Post by spiderfan on Jan 28, 2024 21:44:52 GMT -8
Hello everyone it is me Spiderfan, Sports Coast to Coast's Official NFL Analyst here coming to you with the Conference Championship Edition of Red Hot Gridiron. We have a great deal to discuss, so without further ado, let us begin!
The Regular Season is Meaningless (at least for the Chiefs)
Last week when discussing the Chiefs-Bills game I made the point that it was a mistake for people, including myself, to have gotten wrapped up in the regular season storylines regarding the Bills, the Chiefs, and their status in AFC at large. When the clock hit zero and it was official that the Chiefs beat the Ravens to go to Super Bowl LVIII, I couldn't help but come away with the takeaway that at least as far as the Chiefs are concerned, the regular season is meaningless, at least kinda. Let me explain:
The Chiefs record this season was worse than any in the Patrick Mahomes era. Especially on offense, statistically they were not of the same caliber of the previous Chiefs teams of the Patrick Mahomes era. As I have repeatedly said their WR was sub-XFL level. Some thought that the absence of Eric Bieniemy had caused a level of stagnation and complacency that had previously been there in regards to the Chiefs offense. Much was made of whether or not Chiefs TE Travis Kelce's relationship with Taylor Swift was effecting his play or not. Was the poor-quality of receiver play causing Mahomes to miss throws that he would have made had he been playing with good receivers? This was a question that was thrown around. The Chiefs were finally going to have to play road playoff games, something which they had not done in the Patrick Mahomes era and something which was thought to be a significant advantage for anyone they had to play against.
Every single one of those points I just listed ALL turned out to be meaningless, or at least up to this point. The Chiefs offense is fine without Bienemy, Kelce is still the man as he now has more career playoff receptions than Jerry Rice, Mahomes is still the truth, the Chiefs WRs are now catching passes, and the Chiefs have no problem going on the road and winning playoff games. Now are there asterisks you can throw around? Absolutely. Allegedly Bienemy was causing more problems than solutions which is why he is no longer with the Chiefs, Kelce still had another 1000 yard season so the idea that his play was worse was overblown from the get go especially considering that for most of the year he was the only good target for Mahomes to throw to, and most importantly now that the Chiefs aren't trying to run their offense through Kadarious Toney, a guy who should be preparing for the UFL season in March, it could easily be said that of course their offense is functioning better. I can see both sides of the arguments I presented. While from a specific standpoint I think that some of the storylines regarding the Chiefs were questionable in the first place, from a broader standpoint when they are all added up, it is hard for me to say all of the discussion of them was for naught.
Putting on my Chiefs fan hat for a second, from what I saw in the regular season, I did not think the Chiefs would get to this point. Putting back on my analyst hat, I went on record and said I did not think the Chiefs would not get to this point. The fact that they got to this point adds another layer of excellence to the legacy of Patrick Mahomes. Not only is that a dynamic, but it also overshadows the season the Baltimore Ravens had.
The Ravens were dominant all year long. The games they lost they lead in. They CRUSHED the now Super Bowl bound San Francisco 49ers in Santa Clara no less. Ravens QB Lamar Jackson is going to win his second MVP, something which QBs like Joe Burrow, Josh Allen, and Brock Purdy all of whom are talked about more than Jackson, don't even have one of. The Ravens defense was #1 in the league and their DC Mike MacDonald is in HC consideration because of it. They earned the right to play the biggest game ever played in M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, Maryland. They were the betting favorites for a reason. And they STILL lost to the Chiefs which as I said, will overshadow everything the Ravens did.
I say all that with hindsight. As the game itself was happening, I kept thinking the Chiefs would find a way to blow it. Why? For starters, despite the fact the Chiefs dominated time of possession, they only scored 17 points in the entire game, and all those points came in the first half, and it felt like they were lucky to have scored 17. Oddly enough it wasn't because of poor receiver play by the Chiefs, but because of solid "bend but don't break" defense by the Ravens. The Chiefs defense just shut the Ravens offense down period. The Ravens had one series offensively where they moved up and down the field and from there could barely get anything going. I kept thinking that eventually the Ravens would get something going as despite multiple opportunities for the Chiefs to put the game away, they didn't.
Sure, Ravens WR Zay Flowers fumbled the ball at the 1 yard line, which led to a touchback, but the Chiefs didn't do anything with the ball and quickly punted. Sure, Jackson threw an interception into triple coverage late in the 4th quarter, the Chiefs ended up with a three and out, punted the ball, and the Ravens got the ball near midfield. And those are just a couple examples. Instead, the Chiefs defense (or the Ravens offense depending on how you look at it) kept things in check and the cherry on top for the Chiefs is that they clinched on a pass caught by Chiefs WR Marquez Valdes Scantling, who earlier in the year dropped a similar pass against the Eagles on Monday Night Football.
Ultimately, the question now is: Are the Chiefs good enough to beat the 49ers? The answer: Maybe the question should be are the 49ers good enough to beat the Chiefs?
The Curse Is Undefeated
In 1957 the Detroit Lions played the San Francisco 49ers in a tie breaker game to see who would go to the NFL Championship Game. The Detroit Lions won that game in comeback fashion after being down 17 points. The Lions would go on to blowout the Browns in the Championship Game in what would become the last game before the Curse of Bobby Layne happened.
It would take 34 years for the Lions to play in a game of the magnitude of their '57 bout against the 49ers, where they would play the Washington Redskins and lose in blowout fashion in the NFC Championship Game. It would then take 32 years for the Lions to get back to another NFC Championship Game. This time their opponent would be the 49ers who they played 66 years prior.
I thought the biggest single example proving the existence of the Curse of Bobby Layne was Ravens K Justin Tucker's record 66 yard FG (oddly weird coincidence I know) which had a bounce that legitimately looked supernatural to me. That is what caused me to the deep dive on the Curse that I did a few years ago. While it is still a good piece of evidence, it has now been surpassed by the NFC Championship Game that happened on Sunday.
The game started out with a bang, as the Lions went down and scored a TD on their first drive in 4 plays with the 49ers defense looking completely outmatched. After the 49ers went down the field on their first possession and missed a FG, the Lions once again drove right down the field (albeit in more than 4 plays) and again the 49ers defense looked completely outmatched. Even though the 49ers would score a TD to make it closer, the Lions would score on multiple possessions and end up going into halftime with a 17 point lead, a lead that could have easily been 21 points if not for a missed pass by Lions QB Jared Goff. Defensively and offensively, the Lions were doing everything they wanted to do against the 49ers. Based on the first snaps of the game, it wasn't a surprising score as I thought to myself after the Lions first score that this is a game that could get ugly fast and it did. There was no reason to think that it wouldn't stay ugly... except this is the Detroit Lions and there was actually a legitimate reason to think that it wouldn't stay ugly, the aforementioned Curse of Bobby Layne.
Based on what I had seen in the first half, whether it was the early scoring or the Lions repeated 3rd down conversions or just the all around incredible play of Lions players and effectiveness of their play calling, it felt like the Curse was about to take the biggest hit it has ever taken and based on the previous two playoff games over the past couple weeks, it felt like the trend of the Curse taking hits would continue. Based on everything leading into the second half, it felt like if the Curse was to show up it would be the Super Bowl, if it showed up at all. Maybe, just maybe, the Curse was finally over.
This is all a long winded way of building up to saying that the Lions had one of one the most blatantly obvious chokejobs in the history of the NFL. There have been bigger deficits overcome for sure and there have absolutely been more wild finishes. But when you add up everything bad that happened to the Lions in the second half against the 49ers it is mindblowingly staggering. The idea that all of these things that I'm about to describe all happened to the same team in the same game in the same half is so analytically improbable, yet is superstitiously possible it is truly remarkably amazing.
The Lions gave up a FG to start the half as the 49ers got the ball back, reducing their lead to 14. Then after the Lions themselves got into FG range, instead of kicking a FG that would have made their lead 17 again, the decision was made by Lions HC Dan Campbell to go for it on 4th down. It was not converted. From there the 49ers got the ball back and on deep pass to 49ers WR Brandon Aiyuk from 49ers QB Brock Purdy, an interception (which would have been Purdy's second interception) was dropped by Lions CB Kindle Vildor, which would have been bad enough in itself except Vildor's drop was caught by Aiyuk for a big gain. This would set up a 49ers TD which cut the deficit down to 7. On the very first play of the Lions next offensive series Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs fumbled the ball setting up the 49ers near the red zone and set up another 49ers TD. Tie game. The next Lions possession was a three and out, which was caused by a dropped first down by Lions WR Josh Reynolds. On the punt the Lions screwed up and instead of the 49ers starting from the 1 yard line it was a touchback. The 49ers would capitalize on their next possession by taking a lead with a FG. The Lions' offense finally got rolling after that and got into FG range for the second time in the second half and just like the first time Campbell decided to go for it and just like the first time it had the same result: no conversion. Except this time it was FAR more costly than the first time which was back when the Lions were up 14 early in the 3rd quarter as opposed to down 3 midway through the 4th quarter. The 49ers then went right down the field and scored for the FIFTH consecutive time in the second half, putting themselves up 10. The Lions would score a garbage time touchdown which made anyone who bet on the Lions against the spread some money, but was otherwise meaningless.
It was a complete team failure to seal the deal. On offense, defense, and special teams, plays were missed and opportunities were blown. Which is just how Bobby Layne likes it. Some credit should definitely go the 49ers, who capitalized when they needed to. There are plenty of teams who despite being given the opportunities the 49ers were given would have still lost anyway. You do have to wonder if the 49ers luck will run out in the Super Bowl as it a clear argument can be made that they should have lost both of the playoff games they won. We shall see.
Coaching News
-It appears me that with the hire of Raheem Morris, the Falcons are admitting that the Arthur Smith era was a mistake that needs to be rectified and erased by hiring the guy they clearly wish they had hired instead of Smith. Personally, I think Bill Belichick would have been a better hire, but apparently his presence would have caused too much consternation with those already in the organization and so he wasn't hired. Morris did a good job with the Rams as defensive coordinator and deserved another shot to be a HC at some point, although I have a hard time believing that he won't just end up like Arthur Smith and be fired after a few years.
-Just because Dave Canales got a 6 year contract when he was hired to the head coach of the Panthers doesn't mean he'll be there that long. Josh McDaniels year and a half tenure with the Raiders showed that if an owner wants to they'll cut that thing up quickly and Panthers owner David Tepper showed with his firing of Frank Reich he'll fire somebody sooner than that. Having said all of that, I think Canales is a good hire. He did good work with Geno Smith as the QB coach of the Seahawks which got Smith a new contract and did a good job as OC of the Buccaneers this year, likely earning Baker Mayfield a new contract. Him earning Bryce Young a second contract is not out of the question as far as I'm concerned.
-As someone who also follows college football, I am thrilled that Jim Harbaugh is no longer in college football and back in the NFL. He belonged in the NFL and not in college football as far I'm concerned. And despite my annoyance at Chargers fans in the LA based national sports media complex, I wish them congratulations that their team got someone of Harbaugh's caliber to coach them. I can't wait to see the Chargers-Chiefs games next fall.
-Being that the Titans have a young QB in Will Levis and being that they are in a "we kinda suck but we might be good someday" rebuild it only makes sense for them hire a quality young offensive mind like Brian Callahan to be their HC. I'm curious to see the kind of staff he ends up hiring, because I feel like that could make or break Callahan being the long term answer for the Titans.
And with all of that said that is all for this week's Red Hot Gridiron. As always I hope ya enjoyed and I hope to see ya back for Super Bowl LVIII. Remember, football is the greatest game in the world. Viva Las Vegas! This is spiderfan out.
