Post by alecs on Mar 20, 2024 9:13:58 GMT -8
Happy Wednesday, IFL Fans!
Welcome to Volume XXII of my “Wager Wednesday” bit, in which I examine the current landscape of the upcoming week’s games, based on lines and odds from DraftKings Sportsbook (unless otherwise stated). As an advocate of accountability, I will recap my results - whether genius or moronic - from the prior week as well. With that, let's see how my picks from last week turned out:
• ARI @ NAZ – ARI -5.5 [$19.09 flat win, $13.36 weighted win]
We get the tone-setting green slip to open the 2024 books, as the Rattlers were able to hold the Wranglers primarily in check throughout the game – save for two first-half kick return touchdowns by Arsiah McCorker. The path was not easy, however, as NAZ recovered a late onside kick which gave them a real shot at a potential “backdoor cover.” Instead, the Rattlers intercepted the ball on the very next play, and would later convert a huge 4th-and-10 to effectively end the game. Over bettors got their first taste of a “Bad Beat” in 2024. Somehow, the game stayed under 96.5 despite getting two-thirds of the way there in the first half alone (63 First half points), as both teams made QB changes at the intermission, which definitely seemed to disrupt the flow of the game. The Rattlers would pound out the victory and the cover, 51-40.
• MASS @ GB – GB +3.5 [Loss]
Less than 24 hours after escaping a Bad Beat in the Rattlers/Wranglers showdown, we ended up getting exactly that with the ending of Pirates/Blizzard! Honestly, this one deserves to be featured on Scott Van Pelt’s segment on ESPN. The Blizzard played almost flawless ball for the first 45 minutes and hopped out to a lead as high as 18 points. But the Pirates took command of the fourth quarter, not too dissimilar to the way Sioux Falls knocked them out of last year’s playoffs. While holding the Blizzard off the scoreboard for the entire fourth quarter, the Pirates ended the game on a 22-0 run and stole the impressive road win, 44-40. Even more infuriating for me, if the Pirates had decided to take the extra point rather than going for two after their go-ahead TD, this bet very likely would have cashed. Adding insult to the injury, this line moved all the way up to +5.5 pre-kick after I locked in at +3.5 on Wednesday. Add everything up, and there’s absolutely no question about it: This bricked slip hurts way worse than any of the crushing losses I had a season ago, and it could easily hold up as the “Bad Beat of the Year”.
With the Pirates’ rally stripping us of a “perfect” opening week, we manage an even split with a record of 1-1. Sadly for the weighted method, we played more heavily on the Green Bay loss than the Arizona win, so it comes out to a net loss of $6.64 on the weighted method, compared to just a $0.91 net loss using the flat system. As we dive further into the season and get more games under our belt, I will summarize the results for each betting method (including parlays starting with this week) in separate sections.
Week 2 offers a tantalizing six-game menu spanning Friday through Monday, with nine teams taking the field for the first time in the new season, including the Jacksonville Sharks, who start their inaugural IFL season against a familiar foe. With a half-dozen opportunities in front of us, can we get to that magical number of four victories for a true winning week? Only one way to find out, let’s pick ‘em!
Friday 3/22, 8:05 PM ET
Sioux Falls @ Quad City (-4.5)
Over/Under 91.5
Moneyline: SXF +130, QC -155
The two most recent Eastern Conference champions renew their proud rivalry by squaring off in the opening game for both teams. Sioux Falls (’23) begins the post-Kurtiss Riggs era, with a repeat of last year’s magical run firmly in mind, whereas Quad City (’22) seeks a strong start following a disappointing ending to 2023. Historically, this series has been dominated by the home team, which won all three encounters between these two teams a season ago. Both teams will have a radically different feel to them, as Sioux Falls will operate under Andre Fields as head coach, and Quad City will embark on life without E.J. Hilliard at quarterback, so it’s not hard to see where both teams undergo an early feeling-out process. We get a solid total with a full 13 touchdowns plus the hook, so as long as the chunk plays and special teams are held in check, I like the under as the highest value play. My spread projection has Quad City as the favorites by just 2.5 points, so not enough of a difference to test those waters. We could go Steamwheelers straight up, but I’m not willing to lay 55% juice just for the sake of a win.
The Pick: UNDER 91.5, $8 weighted
Friday 3/22, 8:30 PM ET
Tulsa @ Frisco (-16.5)
Over/Under 89.5
Moneyline: NONE
The Oilers – just as they did a season ago – will begin on the road, where they will take on the odds-on favorite in the league, the Frisco Fighters. Curiously, it was Tulsa who covered in both 2023 meetings, though Frisco was set up as 30+ point favorites for each of those games, about as lofty of a cover request as you could ask for. Based on last year’s data, there is substantial value in laying the points with Frisco, as they retain much of their potent offense from 2023, including reigning MVP T.J. Edwards as the signal-caller. This line should at the very least be -20.5 in my opinion; the fact that we need just a pair of touchdowns and a field goal as the winning margin could make this the easiest call on a Fighters home game all season. I’m not as worried about the Fighters defense, even with losing DB Kordell Jackson over the offseason. The Fighters were undefeated in the regular season at home in 2023, with an average margin of victory of roughly 23 points. Back Frisco to start the season with a bang!
The Pick: Frisco -16.5 Spread, $14 weighted
Saturday 3/23, 7:05 PM ET
Jacksonville @ Massachusetts (-5.5)
Over/Under 98.5
Moneyline: JAX +142, MASS -170
Arguably the most intriguing game of the week goes down on Saturday night, with the first ever professional Indoor Football game to take place in the city of Lowell, Mass. This is the season opener for the Jacksonville Sharks, fresh off a 2023 NAL Championship and taking on a Pirates team with whom they had a fierce rivalry during the 2018 and 2019 seasons. On their run last year, Jacksonville averaged over 60 points per game, and while they are not likely to maintain that scalding number against stiffer competition in 2024, they should be considered dangerous until proven otherwise. The Pirates looked a bit unsettled for three quarters last Sunday in Green Bay before rallying from an 18-point deficit to win, an exhaustive effort from which they will have just five full days of rest, plus travel back to The Commonwealth. Not for nothing, the Sharks decidedly have the Pirates’ number in the series all-time, winning each of the last four matchups after the Pirates took the inaugural meeting in northern Florida. My first moneyline magic attempt of the season will be here, as I believe Jacksonville will continue their “streak” against the Pirates with a surprising upset special. Need to see more than one good quarter (and frankly, three bad quarters) from the Pirates to have confidence backing them going forward.
The Pick: Jacksonville +142 Moneyline, $9 weighted
Saturday 3/23, 7:05 PM ET
Iowa @ Green Bay (-9.5)
Over/Under 91.5
Moneyline: NONE
Man, what a cruel choice for opening opponent and venue for the Iowa Barnstormers, who are out to prove to the IFL world that 2023 was an injury-riddled anomaly of a lost season. The overarching storyline to this one is the return of Barnstormers dual-threat QB Darius-James Peterson, set to play for the first time since tearing his ACL last season, an injury which occurred last year at – you guessed it – Green Bay. On the Blizzard side of the ledger, they take aim at their first win of 2024, a feat which fell from their grasp in Sunday’s fourth-quarter meltdown against Massachusetts. On paper, this seems to be the get-right game that Green Bay needs to help restore the confidence with which they played the first three quarters of Sunday’s game. A double-digit statement win could absolutely be in order, and Green Bay showed they are equipped with the talent – and now the motivation – to pull it off. Go back to the well, and play Green Bay on the points.
The Pick: Green Bay -9.5 Spread, $9 weighted
Sunday 3/24, 6:05 PM ET
Vegas @ Arizona (-13.5)
Over/Under 96.5
Moneyline: NONE
Arizona already has a season-opening win from their conquest in Prescott Valley last Saturday, and they’ll look to double down against a Vegas team opening its third season of play and still searching for its first taste of the playoffs. The story of the Knight Hawks franchise so far boils down to the classic “one step forward, three steps back” analogy. They can come up with an occasional spike performance but have yet to sustain that level of execution to carry that ceiling beyond one game. Playing in “The Snake Pit” will be as stiff of a test as Mike Davis’s men face all season, even with the Rattlers “relocation” to Desert Diamond Arena in Glendale. Notably, both teams had a positive record to the Under in 2023 (ARI 8-7, VGS 9-6), and this total sits right at the point where the Under generally was a big expected-value play last year. Arizona has shown the defensive potential to hold the Knight Hawks below 40 points, even with Vegas bringing in some solid additions like QB Ja'rome Johnson and RB Antonio Wimbush. If that prediction holds, I like the chances of this total staying below. It becomes an even more attractive wager if Dalton Sneed is forced to miss time with the undisclosed injury he reportedly sustained against NAZ.
The Pick: UNDER 96.5, $8 weighted
Monday 3/25, 8:05 PM ET
San Diego @ Duke City (-1.5)
Over/Under 92.5
Moneyline: SD -105, DUKE -115
Late-March Monday Night Football at Rio Rancho will conclude Week 2, and what better matchup than a Nate Davis #RevengeGame in the arena that he called home from 2021 until his trade to the Strike Force last year. Perhaps the best pure passer in the league, Davis hurled a breathtaking 67 passing touchdowns in the 2023 season, and he will attempt to repeat that level of potency for a San Diego offense that could turn out to be among the league’s most dangerous units. Duke City is obviously familiar with his elite skill set, but will they have the firepower defensively to slow Davis and company down? It should be a close tussle between these two Western Conference rivals, as the tight 1.5-point spread indicates. Almost a pick ‘em here, and Duke City home-turf advantage is certainly an equalizing factor. Right now, though, San Diego appears to be the team with the higher weekly upside, so I’ll take them straight up, and after opening lines had the Strike Force at -115 odds, we now lay just a nickel for the outright win. It’s always an uneasy feeling when the majority of the money’s going on the opposite side (which is what typically causes odds shifts like this), but in a stance of contrarianism I’m sticking with my original choice. Strike Force strikes!
The Pick: San Diego -105 Moneyline, $12 weighted
LINE CHANGE: Spread moved to DUKE -1.5 on Tuesday 3/19 at 7:00pm ET, was originally SD -1.5 when lines opened Monday evening. Moneyline payouts changed to SD -105, DUKE -115. Was originally SD -115, DUKE -105. Point total changed from 92.5 to 90.5 as of Monday 3/25 at 12:05pm ET, with 81% of the betting handle (total dollars) on DraftKings currently on the Under.
For our first Three-Leg Parlay of the Week, I’m thinking we take one game per day, and have each leg cover a range of odds (let’s say a moneyline in the -200 range, a spread or over/under at -110, and an upset special at plus-odds if available). With that freamework, one potential parlay that I’m very intrigued by is this:
The “See It Through” Friday Leg: Sioux Falls vs. Quad City – Steamwheelers ML (-155)
The Saturday Middle Leg: Jacksonville vs. Massachusetts – Under 98.5 (-110)
The Sunday Third Leg: Vegas vs. Arizona – Rattlers -13.5 Spread (-110)
Total Odds: +499 [$10.00 wager, Max Payout $59.96]
Here’s a look as well at the Futures market, for anyone seeking to predict the winner of the 2024 IFL Championship Game (August 17th) well in advance! Odds decreases from last week will be indicated in red, and increases in green.
Arizona Rattlers: +330
Frisco Fighters: +380
Massachusetts Pirates: +650
Tucson Sugar Skulls: +800
Bay Area Panthers: +800
Jacksonville Sharks: +850
San Antonio Gunslingers: +1000
Quad City Steamwheelers: +1100
Sioux Falls Storm: +1200
Northern Arizona Wranglers: +1600
Vegas Knight Hawks: +1800
San Diego Strike Force: +2200
Green Bay Blizzard: +2200
Tulsa Oilers: +3000
Iowa Barnstormers: +3000
Duke City Gladiators: +3000
Don’t forget to tune in later this evening for my video coverage of Wager Wednesday, which can be found here. Again, I’ll be going live at around 10pm ET/7pm PT, so swing by if you have the chance!
Good luck to all you bettors out there; and let’s print out the big bucks!!
Welcome to Volume XXII of my “Wager Wednesday” bit, in which I examine the current landscape of the upcoming week’s games, based on lines and odds from DraftKings Sportsbook (unless otherwise stated). As an advocate of accountability, I will recap my results - whether genius or moronic - from the prior week as well. With that, let's see how my picks from last week turned out:
• ARI @ NAZ – ARI -5.5 [$19.09 flat win, $13.36 weighted win]
We get the tone-setting green slip to open the 2024 books, as the Rattlers were able to hold the Wranglers primarily in check throughout the game – save for two first-half kick return touchdowns by Arsiah McCorker. The path was not easy, however, as NAZ recovered a late onside kick which gave them a real shot at a potential “backdoor cover.” Instead, the Rattlers intercepted the ball on the very next play, and would later convert a huge 4th-and-10 to effectively end the game. Over bettors got their first taste of a “Bad Beat” in 2024. Somehow, the game stayed under 96.5 despite getting two-thirds of the way there in the first half alone (63 First half points), as both teams made QB changes at the intermission, which definitely seemed to disrupt the flow of the game. The Rattlers would pound out the victory and the cover, 51-40.
• MASS @ GB – GB +3.5 [Loss]
Less than 24 hours after escaping a Bad Beat in the Rattlers/Wranglers showdown, we ended up getting exactly that with the ending of Pirates/Blizzard! Honestly, this one deserves to be featured on Scott Van Pelt’s segment on ESPN. The Blizzard played almost flawless ball for the first 45 minutes and hopped out to a lead as high as 18 points. But the Pirates took command of the fourth quarter, not too dissimilar to the way Sioux Falls knocked them out of last year’s playoffs. While holding the Blizzard off the scoreboard for the entire fourth quarter, the Pirates ended the game on a 22-0 run and stole the impressive road win, 44-40. Even more infuriating for me, if the Pirates had decided to take the extra point rather than going for two after their go-ahead TD, this bet very likely would have cashed. Adding insult to the injury, this line moved all the way up to +5.5 pre-kick after I locked in at +3.5 on Wednesday. Add everything up, and there’s absolutely no question about it: This bricked slip hurts way worse than any of the crushing losses I had a season ago, and it could easily hold up as the “Bad Beat of the Year”.
With the Pirates’ rally stripping us of a “perfect” opening week, we manage an even split with a record of 1-1. Sadly for the weighted method, we played more heavily on the Green Bay loss than the Arizona win, so it comes out to a net loss of $6.64 on the weighted method, compared to just a $0.91 net loss using the flat system. As we dive further into the season and get more games under our belt, I will summarize the results for each betting method (including parlays starting with this week) in separate sections.
Week 2 offers a tantalizing six-game menu spanning Friday through Monday, with nine teams taking the field for the first time in the new season, including the Jacksonville Sharks, who start their inaugural IFL season against a familiar foe. With a half-dozen opportunities in front of us, can we get to that magical number of four victories for a true winning week? Only one way to find out, let’s pick ‘em!
Friday 3/22, 8:05 PM ET
Sioux Falls @ Quad City (-4.5)
Over/Under 91.5
Moneyline: SXF +130, QC -155
The two most recent Eastern Conference champions renew their proud rivalry by squaring off in the opening game for both teams. Sioux Falls (’23) begins the post-Kurtiss Riggs era, with a repeat of last year’s magical run firmly in mind, whereas Quad City (’22) seeks a strong start following a disappointing ending to 2023. Historically, this series has been dominated by the home team, which won all three encounters between these two teams a season ago. Both teams will have a radically different feel to them, as Sioux Falls will operate under Andre Fields as head coach, and Quad City will embark on life without E.J. Hilliard at quarterback, so it’s not hard to see where both teams undergo an early feeling-out process. We get a solid total with a full 13 touchdowns plus the hook, so as long as the chunk plays and special teams are held in check, I like the under as the highest value play. My spread projection has Quad City as the favorites by just 2.5 points, so not enough of a difference to test those waters. We could go Steamwheelers straight up, but I’m not willing to lay 55% juice just for the sake of a win.
The Pick: UNDER 91.5, $8 weighted
Friday 3/22, 8:30 PM ET
Tulsa @ Frisco (-16.5)
Over/Under 89.5
Moneyline: NONE
The Oilers – just as they did a season ago – will begin on the road, where they will take on the odds-on favorite in the league, the Frisco Fighters. Curiously, it was Tulsa who covered in both 2023 meetings, though Frisco was set up as 30+ point favorites for each of those games, about as lofty of a cover request as you could ask for. Based on last year’s data, there is substantial value in laying the points with Frisco, as they retain much of their potent offense from 2023, including reigning MVP T.J. Edwards as the signal-caller. This line should at the very least be -20.5 in my opinion; the fact that we need just a pair of touchdowns and a field goal as the winning margin could make this the easiest call on a Fighters home game all season. I’m not as worried about the Fighters defense, even with losing DB Kordell Jackson over the offseason. The Fighters were undefeated in the regular season at home in 2023, with an average margin of victory of roughly 23 points. Back Frisco to start the season with a bang!
The Pick: Frisco -16.5 Spread, $14 weighted
Saturday 3/23, 7:05 PM ET
Jacksonville @ Massachusetts (-5.5)
Over/Under 98.5
Moneyline: JAX +142, MASS -170
Arguably the most intriguing game of the week goes down on Saturday night, with the first ever professional Indoor Football game to take place in the city of Lowell, Mass. This is the season opener for the Jacksonville Sharks, fresh off a 2023 NAL Championship and taking on a Pirates team with whom they had a fierce rivalry during the 2018 and 2019 seasons. On their run last year, Jacksonville averaged over 60 points per game, and while they are not likely to maintain that scalding number against stiffer competition in 2024, they should be considered dangerous until proven otherwise. The Pirates looked a bit unsettled for three quarters last Sunday in Green Bay before rallying from an 18-point deficit to win, an exhaustive effort from which they will have just five full days of rest, plus travel back to The Commonwealth. Not for nothing, the Sharks decidedly have the Pirates’ number in the series all-time, winning each of the last four matchups after the Pirates took the inaugural meeting in northern Florida. My first moneyline magic attempt of the season will be here, as I believe Jacksonville will continue their “streak” against the Pirates with a surprising upset special. Need to see more than one good quarter (and frankly, three bad quarters) from the Pirates to have confidence backing them going forward.
The Pick: Jacksonville +142 Moneyline, $9 weighted
Saturday 3/23, 7:05 PM ET
Iowa @ Green Bay (-9.5)
Over/Under 91.5
Moneyline: NONE
Man, what a cruel choice for opening opponent and venue for the Iowa Barnstormers, who are out to prove to the IFL world that 2023 was an injury-riddled anomaly of a lost season. The overarching storyline to this one is the return of Barnstormers dual-threat QB Darius-James Peterson, set to play for the first time since tearing his ACL last season, an injury which occurred last year at – you guessed it – Green Bay. On the Blizzard side of the ledger, they take aim at their first win of 2024, a feat which fell from their grasp in Sunday’s fourth-quarter meltdown against Massachusetts. On paper, this seems to be the get-right game that Green Bay needs to help restore the confidence with which they played the first three quarters of Sunday’s game. A double-digit statement win could absolutely be in order, and Green Bay showed they are equipped with the talent – and now the motivation – to pull it off. Go back to the well, and play Green Bay on the points.
The Pick: Green Bay -9.5 Spread, $9 weighted
Sunday 3/24, 6:05 PM ET
Vegas @ Arizona (-13.5)
Over/Under 96.5
Moneyline: NONE
Arizona already has a season-opening win from their conquest in Prescott Valley last Saturday, and they’ll look to double down against a Vegas team opening its third season of play and still searching for its first taste of the playoffs. The story of the Knight Hawks franchise so far boils down to the classic “one step forward, three steps back” analogy. They can come up with an occasional spike performance but have yet to sustain that level of execution to carry that ceiling beyond one game. Playing in “The Snake Pit” will be as stiff of a test as Mike Davis’s men face all season, even with the Rattlers “relocation” to Desert Diamond Arena in Glendale. Notably, both teams had a positive record to the Under in 2023 (ARI 8-7, VGS 9-6), and this total sits right at the point where the Under generally was a big expected-value play last year. Arizona has shown the defensive potential to hold the Knight Hawks below 40 points, even with Vegas bringing in some solid additions like QB Ja'rome Johnson and RB Antonio Wimbush. If that prediction holds, I like the chances of this total staying below. It becomes an even more attractive wager if Dalton Sneed is forced to miss time with the undisclosed injury he reportedly sustained against NAZ.
The Pick: UNDER 96.5, $8 weighted
Monday 3/25, 8:05 PM ET
San Diego @ Duke City (-1.5)
Over/Under 92.5
Moneyline: SD -105, DUKE -115
Late-March Monday Night Football at Rio Rancho will conclude Week 2, and what better matchup than a Nate Davis #RevengeGame in the arena that he called home from 2021 until his trade to the Strike Force last year. Perhaps the best pure passer in the league, Davis hurled a breathtaking 67 passing touchdowns in the 2023 season, and he will attempt to repeat that level of potency for a San Diego offense that could turn out to be among the league’s most dangerous units. Duke City is obviously familiar with his elite skill set, but will they have the firepower defensively to slow Davis and company down? It should be a close tussle between these two Western Conference rivals, as the tight 1.5-point spread indicates. Almost a pick ‘em here, and Duke City home-turf advantage is certainly an equalizing factor. Right now, though, San Diego appears to be the team with the higher weekly upside, so I’ll take them straight up, and after opening lines had the Strike Force at -115 odds, we now lay just a nickel for the outright win. It’s always an uneasy feeling when the majority of the money’s going on the opposite side (which is what typically causes odds shifts like this), but in a stance of contrarianism I’m sticking with my original choice. Strike Force strikes!
The Pick: San Diego -105 Moneyline, $12 weighted
LINE CHANGE: Spread moved to DUKE -1.5 on Tuesday 3/19 at 7:00pm ET, was originally SD -1.5 when lines opened Monday evening. Moneyline payouts changed to SD -105, DUKE -115. Was originally SD -115, DUKE -105. Point total changed from 92.5 to 90.5 as of Monday 3/25 at 12:05pm ET, with 81% of the betting handle (total dollars) on DraftKings currently on the Under.
For our first Three-Leg Parlay of the Week, I’m thinking we take one game per day, and have each leg cover a range of odds (let’s say a moneyline in the -200 range, a spread or over/under at -110, and an upset special at plus-odds if available). With that freamework, one potential parlay that I’m very intrigued by is this:
The “See It Through” Friday Leg: Sioux Falls vs. Quad City – Steamwheelers ML (-155)
The Saturday Middle Leg: Jacksonville vs. Massachusetts – Under 98.5 (-110)
The Sunday Third Leg: Vegas vs. Arizona – Rattlers -13.5 Spread (-110)
Total Odds: +499 [$10.00 wager, Max Payout $59.96]
Here’s a look as well at the Futures market, for anyone seeking to predict the winner of the 2024 IFL Championship Game (August 17th) well in advance! Odds decreases from last week will be indicated in red, and increases in green.
Arizona Rattlers: +330
Frisco Fighters: +380
Massachusetts Pirates: +650
Tucson Sugar Skulls: +800
Bay Area Panthers: +800
Jacksonville Sharks: +850
San Antonio Gunslingers: +1000
Quad City Steamwheelers: +1100
Sioux Falls Storm: +1200
Northern Arizona Wranglers: +1600
Vegas Knight Hawks: +1800
San Diego Strike Force: +2200
Green Bay Blizzard: +2200
Tulsa Oilers: +3000
Iowa Barnstormers: +3000
Duke City Gladiators: +3000
Don’t forget to tune in later this evening for my video coverage of Wager Wednesday, which can be found here. Again, I’ll be going live at around 10pm ET/7pm PT, so swing by if you have the chance!
Good luck to all you bettors out there; and let’s print out the big bucks!!