Post by alecs on Aug 7, 2024 10:55:10 GMT -8
Happy Wednesday, IFL Fans!
Welcome to Volume XLII of my Wager Wednesday series, in which I examine the current landscape of the upcoming week’s games, based on lines and odds from DraftKings Sportsbook (unless otherwise stated). As an advocate of accountability, I will recap my results - whether genius or moronic - from the prior week as well. With that, let's see how my picks from last week turned out:
• MASS @ GB – MASS +7 Spread [$19.09 flat win, $15.27 weighted win]
The pipe dream at the Perfect Postseason® showed up to Conference Finals weekend alive and well after we strung together a flawless 4-0 masterpiece in last week’s first round. Through a truly surprising result in Friday’s game, we push forward to five playoff wins out of five games! It was not necessarily surprising that the Pirates won, but rather the way they manhandled perhaps the strongest team in the league in hostile territory that stands out the most. After the game started a seven-all tie, the Pirates elevated their game in the first half, with near-perfect offensive efficiency and several key takeaways fueling a 27-point unanswered run that just dried up any bit of enthusiasm for the Green Bay faithful. The Blizzard fought as hard as they could, but only managed to close the gap down to 16 points against a Pirates defense that forced a season-high four takeaways in the contest. Interestingly, this is the second straight Eastern Final where the underdog won at +240 odds (after Sioux Falls ripped the hearts out of Frisco last season), as the Pirates once again redefine IFL History in their 51-28 walloping of the top-ranked Blizzard. The “Curse of the One Seeds” rears its ugly head once again; since the switch to the current conference-based playoff format in 2022, no top-seed from either conference has ever advanced to the IFL Championship.
• SD @ ARI – SD +130 Moneyline [LOSS]
It served as the backbone to our 2023 success, but “Moneyline Magic” certainly lost its luster as we progressed through this season. Up to this point, we had claimed just four underdog outright wins out of 15 attempts, of which only three were plus-odds, and no underdog moneyline wins since our double-feature on Week 8. But darn it all, I had to give at least one more attempt for old time’s sake and backed the visiting team that sported a 10-5-1 regular season spread record. And because of that boldness, my underdog outright picks in 2024 now have a conversion percentage dangerously close to the historically awful Chicago White Sox (24.1% current win percentage for the MLB club versus my abysmal 25.0% in correctly choosing upsets). Arizona was ready for this one right from the jump, taking a quick 14 to nil lead and forcing San Diego into abandoning its running game that had thrashed through the defense of the Rattlers back in April. Nate Davis had perhaps his worst game as a pro – at least in recent memory – completing less than half of his passes and dealing out four interceptions, two of which were returned for back-breaking touchdowns on consecutive drives to start the third quarter. The end result was the largest margin of victory in a playoff game since 2022, when the Rattlers squashed the Duke City Gladiators by 39 points, and at that time Duke City’s quarterback was… oh, Nate Davis. The Rattlers’ pummeling of the Strike Force by final score of 58 to 23 sets up a most intriguing grudge match with the Pirates, who defeated Arizona in the “final-ever” United Bowl in 2021.
Our collection of postseason picks suffers its first setback in Game number six, with our Strike Force +130 moneyline selection not even coming remotely close due to Arizona’s emphatic domination. We did, however, make a correct pick on the Eastern Final, with the Massachusetts outright upset win easily seeing our cover bet cash. We gambled a bit with the weighted method in allocating more of that bankroll to the plus-odds upset selection, thus the weighted method took more of a hit this week than normal. The $20 budget for the flat method returned $19.09, compared to $15.27 for the weighted method, resulting in net loss figures of -$0.91 (flat) and -$4.73 (weighted). In total, our 2024 record including postseason rests at 69-63-2, with net loss of -$15.98 for the flat method and -$27.70 for the weighted method. We have one final chance to reach the 70-win milestone for the 2024 season, what an accomplishment that would be if we can see our selected wager through all the confetti and to the cashier!
What a run this season has been! We’ve prepared for, analyzed, and made our picks on 134 games this season, and now we’ve finally arrived at the one game to decide everything! Like any other Championship, we will give this one every bit of pomp and circumstance due to it. Just as I did last season, I will provide an extensive analysis on each team’s past exploits and current standing, highlighting noteworthy statistics and trends as both teams gear up for this 135th and final game of “The 2024 Indoor War.” Nevadanut has also put together a comprehensive preview post for the Championship - a highly-recommended column to check out!
Without furhter ado, it's time to meet the combatants who will take the field on August 17th, starting with the champions out of the Eastern Conference…
MASSACHUSETTS PIRATES
2024 Regular Season Record: 8-8 (#3 seed in East)
Conference Semifinal Win: 53-50 at #2 Frisco Fighters
Conference Final Win: 51-28 at #1 Green Bay Blizzard
Team Offense, excluding postseason:
Points per game: 41.4 (10th in IFL)
Points per TenPo (ten possessions): 40.7 (9th in IFL)
Individual Offensive Standouts, statistics include postseason:
Starting Quarterback: Alejandro Bennifield
66.2% COMP, 128.5 pass yds/gm, 42 TD, 7 INT, 168.7 QB Rating
3.6 yds/carry, 13.7 rush yds/gm, 14 TD
Starting Running Back: Jimmie Robinson
238 rush, 1107 rush yds, 4.7 yds/carry, 61.5 rush yds/gm, 31 TD
61 rec, 457 rec yds, 7.5 yds/rec, 25.4 rec yds/gm, 4 TD
Top Receivers:
Teo Redding: 56 rec, 688 rec yds, 12.3 yds/rec, 38.2 rec yds/gm, 14 TD
Thomas Owens: 53 rec, 556 rec yds, 10.5 yds/rec, 32.7 rec yds/gm, 20 TD
Isaac Zico: 32 rec, 429 rec yds, 13.4 yds/rec, 42.9 rec yds/gm, 8 TD
Team Defense, excluding postseason:
Points allowed per game: 39.7 (3rd in IFL)
Points allowed per TenPo: 41.0 (8th in IFL)
Individual Defensive Standouts, statistics include postseason:
Tackles Leader: Matt Elam (64.0 tack, 4.0 TFL)
Sack Leaders: Guy Thomas and Julius Turner (4.5 sacks)
Most Interceptions: Cyrus Fagan (3 INT)
Most Fumbles recovered: Devin Hafford (2 FR)
Futures Snapshots:
Preseason Odds of IFL Title: +650
Longest Odds of IFL Title this season: +2500 (Week 15)
With their historic run of two straight wins against some of the best teams in the IFL this season, the Pirates become the latest Eastern Conference team to peak at exactly the right time and parlay that success into an appearance in the IFL Championship, which will be their second attempt at IFL supremacy in four seasons since joining the league. Needless to say, even more history will be stake at Lee’s Family Forum; should the Pirates complete the postseason trifecta with a win, they would become the only active IFL franchise not named the Sioux Falls Storm to boast multiple IFL Championship titles.
The Massachusetts offense leans heavily on its veteran talent, led by fifth-year quarterback and winner of the 2021 United Bowl MVP Alejandro Bennifield. He is joined by all-IFL running back Jimmie Robinson and an experienced receiving group featuring Thomas Owens, Isaac Zico, Teo Redding, and Darren Carrington. The offensive line also showed out all season, paving the way for Robinson to win the IFL rushing crown for a second straight year and surrendering just 11 sacks, third-fewest in the league. Though their season-long offensive metrics actually rank near league average, Bennifield and company have caught fire in the heat of summer, reaching at least 48 points in six out of nine games since June 1st, indicating that their point-scoring ceiling is as deadly as any in the league when operating at peak capacity.
A defense that started this season relying on veteran players like Calvin Bundage and Eugene Ford eventually gave way for younger stars to establish themselves and contribute to a unit that ceded the third-fewest points in the IFL this season. Rookies like lineman Guy Thomas and defensive back Cyrus Fagan seized the opportunity and became key components of the defense. Despite the elite points and yardage allowed metrics, a couple of sore spots still command consideration. One is the relatively light takeaway numbers, as opposing offenses ceded the ball to Massachusetts just 12 times in the regular season, made up of nine interceptions (third-fewest) and three fumble recoveries (t-fewest). The other is the defense’s heavy inclination to draw the eye of the officials, which has contributed to the Pirates being the most penalized team by frequency and penalty yardage in the IFL this season.
On special teams, the Pirates have cycled between a few kickers throughout the year, ultimately winding up with Henry Nell after his tenure with the West Texas Desert Hawks of the AFL was cut short due to the team folding mid-season. He has provided reliability and stability where incumbent Josh Gable and midseason addition Calum Sutherland struggled. In addition, Nell has shown a frequent ability to connect on deuces in the kickoff game, not to mention the drop-kick capabilities as well. As for kickoff returns, that responsibility has been split between Robinson and Zico, both of whom have done a respectable job putting the offense in prime field position.
And now, for the winners of Monday’s Western Conference Championship…
ARIZONA RATTLERS
2024 Regular Season Record: 11-5 (#3 seed in West)
Conference Semifinal Win: 39-38 at #2 Vegas Knight Hawks
Conference Final Win: 58-23 vs. #4 San Diego Strike Force
Team Offense, excluding postseason:
Points per game: 49.0 (4th in IFL)
Points per TenPo: 45.3 (4th in IFL)
Individual Offensive Standouts, statistics include postseason:
Starting Quarterback: Dalton Sneed
64.4% COMP, 156.7 pass yds/gm, 44 TD, 9 INT, 169.0 QB Rating
4.7 yds/carry, 25.8 rush yds/gm, 14 TD
Starting Running Back: Shannon Brooks
164 rush, 602 rush yds, 3.7 yds/carry, 40.1 rush yds/gm, 30 TD
40 rec, 304 rec yds, 7.6 yds/rec, 20.3 rec yds/gm, 6 TD
Top Receivers:
Corey Reed, Jr.: 46 rec, 655 rec yds, 14.2 yds/rec, 54.6 rec yds/gm, 13 TD
Nih-jer Jackson: 42 rec, 553 rec yds, 13.2 yds/rec, 46.1 rec yds/gm, 9 TD
Glen Gibbons, Jr.: 44 rec, 532 rec yds, 12.1 yds/rec, 44.3 rec yds/gm, 12 TD
Team Defense, excluding postseason:
Points allowed per game: 44.4 (8th in IFL)
Points allowed per TenPo: 39.7 (4th in IFL)
Individual Defensive Standouts, statistics include postseason:
Tackles Leader: Davontae Merriweather (76.0 tack, 5.5 TFL)
Sack Leaders: Traevaris Ferrell (2.5 sacks)
Most Interceptions: Dillon Winfrey and Davontae Merriweather (5 INT)
Most Fumbles recovered: Six players (1 FR)
Futures Snapshots:
Preseason Odds of IFL Title: +425
Longest Odds of IFL Title this season: +1100 (Week 19)
Arizona’s path to the championship unfolded a lot like the one Massachusetts forged in the East, with a close last-second first round win followed by a laugher of a Championship outing. And like their Bay State rivals, the Rattlers will also be going for their second IFL title to go along with their 2017 victory (and five preceding AFL Championships). Arizona also enters the Title Game scorching hot, winners of each of their last five games, nine out of their last ten, and 12-2 since a concerning 1-3 start to the season. The Kevin Guy Model of consistency has chugged along in convincing form, and Arizona fans will hope for one final game to play out as such to claim glory in Henderson.
Speaking of a guy who’s been there and done that, Arizona’s prized offseason acquisition has been the centerpiece of this Rattlers run. Dalton Sneed leads the fourth-ranked Arizona offense into town, as he attempts to join elite company if he can clinch a Championship for the Rattlers. As a reigning 2023 Champion, Sneed could become a repeat title-winning signal-caller, an exclusive group featuring Chris Dixon and… that’s it. That’s the list of quarterbacks who have strung together multiple consecutive Championship wins. The former UNLV Rebel has an embarrassment of wealth at the skill positions, with a running game powered by himself and tailback Shannon Brooks, along with a deep rotation of receivers featuring Corey Reed Jr, Jamal Miles, and a couple other receivers with titles under their belts in Nih-jer Jackson (2023) and Glen Gibbons Jr (2022). Sneed missed some time early in the season with injury, but if you count only the games which he started, the Rattlers put up over 51 points per game. It’s a high-floor, high-ceiling unit that can drive defenses crazy when at its best.
Despite rounding out to form near the end of the season and through the postseason thus far, Arizona’s defense has graded out at around league-average, as evidenced by their middle-of-the-road points allowed per game average. The potential area of exposure has been the rush defense, which entered the postseason giving up the most rushing yardage among the qualifying playoff teams, and better than only San Antonio for worst mark in the IFL. They’ve made up for that shortcoming with their ball-hawking secondary, ceding the third-fewest passing yards in the league and snagging away 21 total interceptions, good for second in the IFL. There usually isn’t much room to throw with Jarmaine Doubs, Davontae Merriweather, and Dillon Winfrey keeping pace with opposing receivers, and if the front line led by Traevaris Ferrell and Collin Taylor can make an impact as well, we’ve seen what the ceiling of Arizona’s defense can be, and it’s not hard to envision another standout game resulting in a possible end to a seven-year search for a Rattler title.
The Rattler special teams unit is highlighted by kicker Dawson Evitts, who has been with the team all season and is the IFL’s leader in field goal percentage on the season at 66.7%. Gibbons has served as the primary kick returner and averages the fifth-most yards per return (22.8).
Having now documented a sample of both teams’ season-long achievements and accolades, let’s look at the lines to see how the oddsmakers are visualizing the end result of the 2024 IFL National Championship!
Saturday 8/17, 4:05 PM ET (Game at Lee’s Family Forum in Henderson, NV)
Massachusetts vs. Arizona (-4.5) (-110 odds both sides)
Over/Under: 86.5 (-110 odds)
Moneyline: MASS +145, ARI -175
Alec’s Projected Chance of Victory: Arizona in 55% of simulations
So many tantalizing betting options exist for this grudge match three years in the making, and there are so many stats that we can pull from infinitely many angles in our quest to come up with the one pick we will be making. Some of the most notable in my opinion are as follows:
• Dalton Sneed will be making a run at his second consecutive championship, but in order to accomplish that, he will need to defeat a Pirates team against whom he is a winless 0-3 thus far in his career (lost both 2022 matches with Sioux Falls and last year with Bay Area).
• The Pirates will have to face a similarly daunting task of coming through against a Western Conference team. In 2024, Massachusetts is 10-5 against the East but 0-3 versus the West. Notably, those three losses were by a combined five points against two very good teams in Northern Arizona and San Antonio twice.
• Playoff games outside of the Phoenix/Glendale area don’t happen often for the Rattlers, but when they do, they’ve often been favorable results. The last time Arizona played a road or neutral site playoff game and lost? The 2015 AFL Semifinals, against the San Jose SaberCats.
• Here's a corny Pirates stat that gives serious “Grimace-to-the-Mets” vibes. The IFL partnered this postseason with Stadium to stream playoff games, a coalition that some fans can remember traces its origins back to, you guessed it, the 2021 season, where the Pirates won three straight postseason games to win it all. They’ve now won two this year as well, making Massachusetts 5-0 in postseasons where an IFL/Stadium partnership is active. Their postseason record without Stadium? Winless at 0-4.
• From an historical standpoint, each of the last two IFL Championships in Henderson have scored exactly 92 points (NAZ 47-45 over QC in ’22, and BAY 51-41 over SXF in ’23). The 2021 Pirates/Rattlers United Bowl was the second-lowest scoring IFL Championship ever played, and to date is the only installment to have been decided in overtime. My model projects about a 5% chance that history will repeat itself with another overtime Title Game between these two foes.
Next up, I will be taking a closer peek at each bet type, starting with the ones that ultimately did not make the cut to be my final answer:
Over/Under: 86.5 combined points
Arizona has played 12 out of 18 games which made it above this mark.
Massachusetts games have reached this total just seven times this season.
Arizona is 10-8 to the Under in 2024 (including playoffs)
Massachusetts is 11-7 to the Under
Arizona games have averaged 91.8 points per game (including playoffs)
Massachusetts games have averaged 82.2 points per game
On average, each game sees Arizona with 10.8 poss per game (7th in IFL)
Massachusetts likes to play at a slower tempo, with 10.2 poss per game (3rd fewest in IFL)
Seven of the past nine IFL Championships dating back to 2014 have made it past this mark, and nine out of 14 overall have made this Over.
Preferred pick: Over 86.5 (hits in 56% of simulations, average 87.9 per run)
Spread: Arizona favored by 4.5 points
Arizona is 9-9 ATS in 2024
Massachusetts is 8-9-1 ATS
Arizona is 7-6 ATS when made the betting favorite
Massachusetts is 4-0-1 ATS when made the underdog
Prior to last year’s IFL Championship, where the Panthers defeated the Storm by ten points, each of the four preceding Championships was decided by a margin less than this current spread. Iowa by four in ’18, Sioux Falls by three in ’19, Massachusetts by three (OT) in ’21, and Northern Arizona by two in ’22.
Preferred pick: Massachusetts +4.5 Spread (hits in 63% of simulations, average margin is ARI by 1.8)
Now, my final wager of 2024 may not bring the level of excitement that one may have expected from reading this entire column, but I will be going with an outright moneyline pick for this one. A decision partly borne from the fact that I am a paltry 2-7 in my last nine Rattlers games, I will be setting my hometown bias aside and backing the Rattlers to earn their seventh all-time trophy. I’ve been fading them for the past month-plus, and all they’ve done in that span is completely burn me up. No time like the very last game of the IFL season to correct that oversight, huh? Or perhaps the reverse jinx actually kicks in and Massachusetts takes the hardware back to Lowell after all. The Pirates do stand a very reasonable 45% chance to win according to my model, and if they can dictate the game script based on the tempo they like to play at, a second IFL championship is firmly in the cards. However it shakes out, the Rattlers have been playing with killer instinct since basically May, and it will take a third straight other-worldly effort from the Pirates to have a chance of slowing them down.
The Pick: Arizona -175 Moneyline ($10 wager for $15.71 payout)
Correct Score Model Prediction: Rattlers 46 – Pirates 43
Don’t forget to tune in later this evening for my video coverage of Wager Wednesday, which can be found here. Tonight’s stream will start at 9 pm ET/6 pm PT. If you’re free at that time, swing by if you have the chance!
For what will be the final time this season, I wish you all the best of luck in your wagering endeavors! Let’s print out the big bucks one more time before we set our sights on 2025!
Welcome to Volume XLII of my Wager Wednesday series, in which I examine the current landscape of the upcoming week’s games, based on lines and odds from DraftKings Sportsbook (unless otherwise stated). As an advocate of accountability, I will recap my results - whether genius or moronic - from the prior week as well. With that, let's see how my picks from last week turned out:
• MASS @ GB – MASS +7 Spread [$19.09 flat win, $15.27 weighted win]
The pipe dream at the Perfect Postseason® showed up to Conference Finals weekend alive and well after we strung together a flawless 4-0 masterpiece in last week’s first round. Through a truly surprising result in Friday’s game, we push forward to five playoff wins out of five games! It was not necessarily surprising that the Pirates won, but rather the way they manhandled perhaps the strongest team in the league in hostile territory that stands out the most. After the game started a seven-all tie, the Pirates elevated their game in the first half, with near-perfect offensive efficiency and several key takeaways fueling a 27-point unanswered run that just dried up any bit of enthusiasm for the Green Bay faithful. The Blizzard fought as hard as they could, but only managed to close the gap down to 16 points against a Pirates defense that forced a season-high four takeaways in the contest. Interestingly, this is the second straight Eastern Final where the underdog won at +240 odds (after Sioux Falls ripped the hearts out of Frisco last season), as the Pirates once again redefine IFL History in their 51-28 walloping of the top-ranked Blizzard. The “Curse of the One Seeds” rears its ugly head once again; since the switch to the current conference-based playoff format in 2022, no top-seed from either conference has ever advanced to the IFL Championship.
• SD @ ARI – SD +130 Moneyline [LOSS]
It served as the backbone to our 2023 success, but “Moneyline Magic” certainly lost its luster as we progressed through this season. Up to this point, we had claimed just four underdog outright wins out of 15 attempts, of which only three were plus-odds, and no underdog moneyline wins since our double-feature on Week 8. But darn it all, I had to give at least one more attempt for old time’s sake and backed the visiting team that sported a 10-5-1 regular season spread record. And because of that boldness, my underdog outright picks in 2024 now have a conversion percentage dangerously close to the historically awful Chicago White Sox (24.1% current win percentage for the MLB club versus my abysmal 25.0% in correctly choosing upsets). Arizona was ready for this one right from the jump, taking a quick 14 to nil lead and forcing San Diego into abandoning its running game that had thrashed through the defense of the Rattlers back in April. Nate Davis had perhaps his worst game as a pro – at least in recent memory – completing less than half of his passes and dealing out four interceptions, two of which were returned for back-breaking touchdowns on consecutive drives to start the third quarter. The end result was the largest margin of victory in a playoff game since 2022, when the Rattlers squashed the Duke City Gladiators by 39 points, and at that time Duke City’s quarterback was… oh, Nate Davis. The Rattlers’ pummeling of the Strike Force by final score of 58 to 23 sets up a most intriguing grudge match with the Pirates, who defeated Arizona in the “final-ever” United Bowl in 2021.
Our collection of postseason picks suffers its first setback in Game number six, with our Strike Force +130 moneyline selection not even coming remotely close due to Arizona’s emphatic domination. We did, however, make a correct pick on the Eastern Final, with the Massachusetts outright upset win easily seeing our cover bet cash. We gambled a bit with the weighted method in allocating more of that bankroll to the plus-odds upset selection, thus the weighted method took more of a hit this week than normal. The $20 budget for the flat method returned $19.09, compared to $15.27 for the weighted method, resulting in net loss figures of -$0.91 (flat) and -$4.73 (weighted). In total, our 2024 record including postseason rests at 69-63-2, with net loss of -$15.98 for the flat method and -$27.70 for the weighted method. We have one final chance to reach the 70-win milestone for the 2024 season, what an accomplishment that would be if we can see our selected wager through all the confetti and to the cashier!
What a run this season has been! We’ve prepared for, analyzed, and made our picks on 134 games this season, and now we’ve finally arrived at the one game to decide everything! Like any other Championship, we will give this one every bit of pomp and circumstance due to it. Just as I did last season, I will provide an extensive analysis on each team’s past exploits and current standing, highlighting noteworthy statistics and trends as both teams gear up for this 135th and final game of “The 2024 Indoor War.” Nevadanut has also put together a comprehensive preview post for the Championship - a highly-recommended column to check out!
Without furhter ado, it's time to meet the combatants who will take the field on August 17th, starting with the champions out of the Eastern Conference…
MASSACHUSETTS PIRATES
2024 Regular Season Record: 8-8 (#3 seed in East)
Conference Semifinal Win: 53-50 at #2 Frisco Fighters
Conference Final Win: 51-28 at #1 Green Bay Blizzard
Team Offense, excluding postseason:
Points per game: 41.4 (10th in IFL)
Points per TenPo (ten possessions): 40.7 (9th in IFL)
Individual Offensive Standouts, statistics include postseason:
Starting Quarterback: Alejandro Bennifield
66.2% COMP, 128.5 pass yds/gm, 42 TD, 7 INT, 168.7 QB Rating
3.6 yds/carry, 13.7 rush yds/gm, 14 TD
Starting Running Back: Jimmie Robinson
238 rush, 1107 rush yds, 4.7 yds/carry, 61.5 rush yds/gm, 31 TD
61 rec, 457 rec yds, 7.5 yds/rec, 25.4 rec yds/gm, 4 TD
Top Receivers:
Teo Redding: 56 rec, 688 rec yds, 12.3 yds/rec, 38.2 rec yds/gm, 14 TD
Thomas Owens: 53 rec, 556 rec yds, 10.5 yds/rec, 32.7 rec yds/gm, 20 TD
Isaac Zico: 32 rec, 429 rec yds, 13.4 yds/rec, 42.9 rec yds/gm, 8 TD
Team Defense, excluding postseason:
Points allowed per game: 39.7 (3rd in IFL)
Points allowed per TenPo: 41.0 (8th in IFL)
Individual Defensive Standouts, statistics include postseason:
Tackles Leader: Matt Elam (64.0 tack, 4.0 TFL)
Sack Leaders: Guy Thomas and Julius Turner (4.5 sacks)
Most Interceptions: Cyrus Fagan (3 INT)
Most Fumbles recovered: Devin Hafford (2 FR)
Futures Snapshots:
Preseason Odds of IFL Title: +650
Longest Odds of IFL Title this season: +2500 (Week 15)
With their historic run of two straight wins against some of the best teams in the IFL this season, the Pirates become the latest Eastern Conference team to peak at exactly the right time and parlay that success into an appearance in the IFL Championship, which will be their second attempt at IFL supremacy in four seasons since joining the league. Needless to say, even more history will be stake at Lee’s Family Forum; should the Pirates complete the postseason trifecta with a win, they would become the only active IFL franchise not named the Sioux Falls Storm to boast multiple IFL Championship titles.
The Massachusetts offense leans heavily on its veteran talent, led by fifth-year quarterback and winner of the 2021 United Bowl MVP Alejandro Bennifield. He is joined by all-IFL running back Jimmie Robinson and an experienced receiving group featuring Thomas Owens, Isaac Zico, Teo Redding, and Darren Carrington. The offensive line also showed out all season, paving the way for Robinson to win the IFL rushing crown for a second straight year and surrendering just 11 sacks, third-fewest in the league. Though their season-long offensive metrics actually rank near league average, Bennifield and company have caught fire in the heat of summer, reaching at least 48 points in six out of nine games since June 1st, indicating that their point-scoring ceiling is as deadly as any in the league when operating at peak capacity.
A defense that started this season relying on veteran players like Calvin Bundage and Eugene Ford eventually gave way for younger stars to establish themselves and contribute to a unit that ceded the third-fewest points in the IFL this season. Rookies like lineman Guy Thomas and defensive back Cyrus Fagan seized the opportunity and became key components of the defense. Despite the elite points and yardage allowed metrics, a couple of sore spots still command consideration. One is the relatively light takeaway numbers, as opposing offenses ceded the ball to Massachusetts just 12 times in the regular season, made up of nine interceptions (third-fewest) and three fumble recoveries (t-fewest). The other is the defense’s heavy inclination to draw the eye of the officials, which has contributed to the Pirates being the most penalized team by frequency and penalty yardage in the IFL this season.
On special teams, the Pirates have cycled between a few kickers throughout the year, ultimately winding up with Henry Nell after his tenure with the West Texas Desert Hawks of the AFL was cut short due to the team folding mid-season. He has provided reliability and stability where incumbent Josh Gable and midseason addition Calum Sutherland struggled. In addition, Nell has shown a frequent ability to connect on deuces in the kickoff game, not to mention the drop-kick capabilities as well. As for kickoff returns, that responsibility has been split between Robinson and Zico, both of whom have done a respectable job putting the offense in prime field position.
And now, for the winners of Monday’s Western Conference Championship…
ARIZONA RATTLERS
2024 Regular Season Record: 11-5 (#3 seed in West)
Conference Semifinal Win: 39-38 at #2 Vegas Knight Hawks
Conference Final Win: 58-23 vs. #4 San Diego Strike Force
Team Offense, excluding postseason:
Points per game: 49.0 (4th in IFL)
Points per TenPo: 45.3 (4th in IFL)
Individual Offensive Standouts, statistics include postseason:
Starting Quarterback: Dalton Sneed
64.4% COMP, 156.7 pass yds/gm, 44 TD, 9 INT, 169.0 QB Rating
4.7 yds/carry, 25.8 rush yds/gm, 14 TD
Starting Running Back: Shannon Brooks
164 rush, 602 rush yds, 3.7 yds/carry, 40.1 rush yds/gm, 30 TD
40 rec, 304 rec yds, 7.6 yds/rec, 20.3 rec yds/gm, 6 TD
Top Receivers:
Corey Reed, Jr.: 46 rec, 655 rec yds, 14.2 yds/rec, 54.6 rec yds/gm, 13 TD
Nih-jer Jackson: 42 rec, 553 rec yds, 13.2 yds/rec, 46.1 rec yds/gm, 9 TD
Glen Gibbons, Jr.: 44 rec, 532 rec yds, 12.1 yds/rec, 44.3 rec yds/gm, 12 TD
Team Defense, excluding postseason:
Points allowed per game: 44.4 (8th in IFL)
Points allowed per TenPo: 39.7 (4th in IFL)
Individual Defensive Standouts, statistics include postseason:
Tackles Leader: Davontae Merriweather (76.0 tack, 5.5 TFL)
Sack Leaders: Traevaris Ferrell (2.5 sacks)
Most Interceptions: Dillon Winfrey and Davontae Merriweather (5 INT)
Most Fumbles recovered: Six players (1 FR)
Futures Snapshots:
Preseason Odds of IFL Title: +425
Longest Odds of IFL Title this season: +1100 (Week 19)
Arizona’s path to the championship unfolded a lot like the one Massachusetts forged in the East, with a close last-second first round win followed by a laugher of a Championship outing. And like their Bay State rivals, the Rattlers will also be going for their second IFL title to go along with their 2017 victory (and five preceding AFL Championships). Arizona also enters the Title Game scorching hot, winners of each of their last five games, nine out of their last ten, and 12-2 since a concerning 1-3 start to the season. The Kevin Guy Model of consistency has chugged along in convincing form, and Arizona fans will hope for one final game to play out as such to claim glory in Henderson.
Speaking of a guy who’s been there and done that, Arizona’s prized offseason acquisition has been the centerpiece of this Rattlers run. Dalton Sneed leads the fourth-ranked Arizona offense into town, as he attempts to join elite company if he can clinch a Championship for the Rattlers. As a reigning 2023 Champion, Sneed could become a repeat title-winning signal-caller, an exclusive group featuring Chris Dixon and… that’s it. That’s the list of quarterbacks who have strung together multiple consecutive Championship wins. The former UNLV Rebel has an embarrassment of wealth at the skill positions, with a running game powered by himself and tailback Shannon Brooks, along with a deep rotation of receivers featuring Corey Reed Jr, Jamal Miles, and a couple other receivers with titles under their belts in Nih-jer Jackson (2023) and Glen Gibbons Jr (2022). Sneed missed some time early in the season with injury, but if you count only the games which he started, the Rattlers put up over 51 points per game. It’s a high-floor, high-ceiling unit that can drive defenses crazy when at its best.
Despite rounding out to form near the end of the season and through the postseason thus far, Arizona’s defense has graded out at around league-average, as evidenced by their middle-of-the-road points allowed per game average. The potential area of exposure has been the rush defense, which entered the postseason giving up the most rushing yardage among the qualifying playoff teams, and better than only San Antonio for worst mark in the IFL. They’ve made up for that shortcoming with their ball-hawking secondary, ceding the third-fewest passing yards in the league and snagging away 21 total interceptions, good for second in the IFL. There usually isn’t much room to throw with Jarmaine Doubs, Davontae Merriweather, and Dillon Winfrey keeping pace with opposing receivers, and if the front line led by Traevaris Ferrell and Collin Taylor can make an impact as well, we’ve seen what the ceiling of Arizona’s defense can be, and it’s not hard to envision another standout game resulting in a possible end to a seven-year search for a Rattler title.
The Rattler special teams unit is highlighted by kicker Dawson Evitts, who has been with the team all season and is the IFL’s leader in field goal percentage on the season at 66.7%. Gibbons has served as the primary kick returner and averages the fifth-most yards per return (22.8).
Having now documented a sample of both teams’ season-long achievements and accolades, let’s look at the lines to see how the oddsmakers are visualizing the end result of the 2024 IFL National Championship!
Saturday 8/17, 4:05 PM ET (Game at Lee’s Family Forum in Henderson, NV)
Massachusetts vs. Arizona (-4.5) (-110 odds both sides)
Over/Under: 86.5 (-110 odds)
Moneyline: MASS +145, ARI -175
Alec’s Projected Chance of Victory: Arizona in 55% of simulations
So many tantalizing betting options exist for this grudge match three years in the making, and there are so many stats that we can pull from infinitely many angles in our quest to come up with the one pick we will be making. Some of the most notable in my opinion are as follows:
• Dalton Sneed will be making a run at his second consecutive championship, but in order to accomplish that, he will need to defeat a Pirates team against whom he is a winless 0-3 thus far in his career (lost both 2022 matches with Sioux Falls and last year with Bay Area).
• The Pirates will have to face a similarly daunting task of coming through against a Western Conference team. In 2024, Massachusetts is 10-5 against the East but 0-3 versus the West. Notably, those three losses were by a combined five points against two very good teams in Northern Arizona and San Antonio twice.
• Playoff games outside of the Phoenix/Glendale area don’t happen often for the Rattlers, but when they do, they’ve often been favorable results. The last time Arizona played a road or neutral site playoff game and lost? The 2015 AFL Semifinals, against the San Jose SaberCats.
• Here's a corny Pirates stat that gives serious “Grimace-to-the-Mets” vibes. The IFL partnered this postseason with Stadium to stream playoff games, a coalition that some fans can remember traces its origins back to, you guessed it, the 2021 season, where the Pirates won three straight postseason games to win it all. They’ve now won two this year as well, making Massachusetts 5-0 in postseasons where an IFL/Stadium partnership is active. Their postseason record without Stadium? Winless at 0-4.
• From an historical standpoint, each of the last two IFL Championships in Henderson have scored exactly 92 points (NAZ 47-45 over QC in ’22, and BAY 51-41 over SXF in ’23). The 2021 Pirates/Rattlers United Bowl was the second-lowest scoring IFL Championship ever played, and to date is the only installment to have been decided in overtime. My model projects about a 5% chance that history will repeat itself with another overtime Title Game between these two foes.
Next up, I will be taking a closer peek at each bet type, starting with the ones that ultimately did not make the cut to be my final answer:
Over/Under: 86.5 combined points
Arizona has played 12 out of 18 games which made it above this mark.
Massachusetts games have reached this total just seven times this season.
Arizona is 10-8 to the Under in 2024 (including playoffs)
Massachusetts is 11-7 to the Under
Arizona games have averaged 91.8 points per game (including playoffs)
Massachusetts games have averaged 82.2 points per game
On average, each game sees Arizona with 10.8 poss per game (7th in IFL)
Massachusetts likes to play at a slower tempo, with 10.2 poss per game (3rd fewest in IFL)
Seven of the past nine IFL Championships dating back to 2014 have made it past this mark, and nine out of 14 overall have made this Over.
Preferred pick: Over 86.5 (hits in 56% of simulations, average 87.9 per run)
Spread: Arizona favored by 4.5 points
Arizona is 9-9 ATS in 2024
Massachusetts is 8-9-1 ATS
Arizona is 7-6 ATS when made the betting favorite
Massachusetts is 4-0-1 ATS when made the underdog
Prior to last year’s IFL Championship, where the Panthers defeated the Storm by ten points, each of the four preceding Championships was decided by a margin less than this current spread. Iowa by four in ’18, Sioux Falls by three in ’19, Massachusetts by three (OT) in ’21, and Northern Arizona by two in ’22.
Preferred pick: Massachusetts +4.5 Spread (hits in 63% of simulations, average margin is ARI by 1.8)
Now, my final wager of 2024 may not bring the level of excitement that one may have expected from reading this entire column, but I will be going with an outright moneyline pick for this one. A decision partly borne from the fact that I am a paltry 2-7 in my last nine Rattlers games, I will be setting my hometown bias aside and backing the Rattlers to earn their seventh all-time trophy. I’ve been fading them for the past month-plus, and all they’ve done in that span is completely burn me up. No time like the very last game of the IFL season to correct that oversight, huh? Or perhaps the reverse jinx actually kicks in and Massachusetts takes the hardware back to Lowell after all. The Pirates do stand a very reasonable 45% chance to win according to my model, and if they can dictate the game script based on the tempo they like to play at, a second IFL championship is firmly in the cards. However it shakes out, the Rattlers have been playing with killer instinct since basically May, and it will take a third straight other-worldly effort from the Pirates to have a chance of slowing them down.
The Pick: Arizona -175 Moneyline ($10 wager for $15.71 payout)
Correct Score Model Prediction: Rattlers 46 – Pirates 43
Don’t forget to tune in later this evening for my video coverage of Wager Wednesday, which can be found here. Tonight’s stream will start at 9 pm ET/6 pm PT. If you’re free at that time, swing by if you have the chance!
For what will be the final time this season, I wish you all the best of luck in your wagering endeavors! Let’s print out the big bucks one more time before we set our sights on 2025!
Graphic courtesy of David.