Post by alecs on Mar 13, 2024 12:44:58 GMT -8
Happy Wednesday, IFL Fans!
Welcome to Volume XXI of my “Wager Wednesday” bit, in which I examine the current landscape of the upcoming week’s games, based on lines and odds from DraftKings Sportsbook (unless otherwise stated). After a seven-month wait, it is once again time to try our hand at the betting market of the IFL! The maiden voyage of 2023 was a smashing success, and I am confident that the lessons learned and trends picked up from a season ago can propel an even higher rate of success this year!
Just as I did a season ago, each week following this one will start with a recap of the past week’s games, affirming whether my selections were genius – or moronic. For those of you who are new to the league or the forum this year, here’s a quick recap of the results generated from 2023 ($10 unit):
Overall Win/Loss: 58-46 [+$128.70]
Spread Bets: 25-20 [+$27.27]
Over/Under Bets: 18-15 [+$13.64]
Moneyline Bets: 15-11 [+$87.79]
As was the case last year, my picks will lean heavily on advanced metrics and a tailored model which is based mostly on win/loss margin, adjusted strength of schedule, and other outlying factors (for instance, injuries or week-to-week transactions). In running this exercise, we can pinpoint high-probability value picks to leverage and come up with some winning slips where the public might not be the first to find them. The end result, a portfolio with an overwhelmingly high rate of return, with winning marks in each of the three bet categories!
For 2024, I will be introducing a couple of new components to further enhance Wager Wednesday. The first is the “weighted bet” system, which I will use on top of the existing flat betting method, with $10 as the base unit of measurement. Weighted bets will be determined based on the level of confidence of one game in a week compared to the rest of the slate, and each game will be attributed a full-dollar amount between $5 and $20. I’m fascinated to see how this change will impact profitability versus the flat-betting style. Both methods will also have the same total budget for the week: $10 multiplied by the number of games for that week. The second addition is a live webcast, which can be found on my YouTube channel, that I will air each night, with streams starting at roughly 10pm ET/7pm PT. My hope is that the streams will add an extra level of engagement on top of the written posts, so we’ll see how the first few editions go to begin the season.
Now that the stage is set, let’s examine the pair of games that will officially get the 16th season of the IFL underway! Starting with a playoff grudge match on Saturday night:
Saturday 3/16, 9:05 PM ET
Arizona (-5.5) @ Northern Arizona [Arizona favored by 5.5 points to win the game]
Over/Under 96.5 Total Points
Moneyline: ARI -170, NAZ +142
The league chose this particular matchup to lead off the season, and honestly it’s hard to come up with a better alternative. In the 2023 season, the Rattlers/Wranglers series gave fans the biggest playoff upset the league has seen in a decade, along with SCtoC’s nomination for regular season “Game of the Year”, so I’m thrilled to find out what this next chapter holds. Heck, even commissioner Todd Tryon is attending this game in person, which should tell you all you need to know about the anticipation factor. The Rattlers enter 2024 hungry for their first title in seven years, held out of the Championship in each of the past two seasons by the Les Moss-led Wranglers. NAZ will once again rely primarily on newcomers and rookies to lead the charge, and Moss will hope that some stars emerge on offense, which was a pain point for the Wranglers last season (36.9 ppg was last in the league). Meanwhile, Arizona’s got a new quarterback, trading Drew Powell to make way for reigning IFL Championship MVP Dalton Sneed. He enters a scheme containing an exciting mix of returning veterans and high-impact free agent signings (potential Glen Gibbons #RevengeGame). I like the veteran team to take care of business against their upstart rivals. They covered at this number in their road opener last year in QC; I’ll back them to repeat that performance to set the tone for 2024. The Under on the total points is also showing some solid value, as my model projects this game at 89.5.
The Pick: ARI -5.5 Spread, $7 weighted bet
LINE CHANGE: Spread has moved to ARI -6.5 as of Saturday 3/16 at 2:15pm ET. Moneyline payouts have changed to ARI -180, NAZ +150.
Sunday 3/17, 4:05 PM ET
Massachusetts (-3.5) @ Green Bay [Massachusetts favored by 3.5 points to win the game]
Over/Under 91.5 Total Points
Moneyline: MASS -148, GB +124
Following up a sensational Saturday night tilt is a Sunday showdown of two Eastern Conference foes, and the history of Pirates/Blizzard games at Resch Center looks like it came straight from a Hollywood script. The past two tilts in this building have reached overtime, with Massachusetts winning last year and Green Bay taking the 2022 thriller, and the Blizzard rallied on a recovered onside kick late in their 2021 game at Resch to win by four. The Blizzard are seeking a long-awaited return to the playoffs in 2024, while the Pirates look to keep their streak of reaching the playoffs in every year of existence alive. Admittedly, my mind has been fixated on one statistic when trying to prepare a selection for this game: 0-9. That was the Pirates’ road record against the spread in 2023, as they were the only team in the league winless in that category. Until they can prove that they can reach the expected level of execution outside of The Commonwealth, Massachusetts is an easy fade on the spread. Take the home dog at the pivotal field goal plus the hook, and play Green Bay on St. Patty’s Day.
The Pick: GB +3.5 Spread, $13 weighted bet
LINE CHANGE: Spread moved to MASS -4.5 on Saturday 3/16 at 2:15pm ET. Moneyline payouts changed to MASS -155, GB +130. On Sunday 3/17 at 2:45pm ET, Spread moved to MASS -5.5, and moneylines shifted to MASS -166, GB +140
Once we have a wider range of games to choose from, starting with next week’s pack of games, I will cook up my recommended three-leg parlay of the week. These will also be tracked separately from week to week to see how we fare, and the value generated from those selections.
Here’s a look as well at the Futures market, for anyone seeking to predict the winner of the 2024 IFL Championship Game (August 17th) well in advance!
Frisco Fighters: +380
Arizona Rattlers: +475
Massachusetts Pirates: +650
Tucson Sugar Skulls: +750
Bay Area Panthers: +750
Jacksonville Sharks: +850
San Antonio Gunslingers: +1100
Quad City Steamwheelers: +1100
Northern Arizona Wranglers: +1200
Sioux Falls Storm: +1200
Vegas Knight Hawks: +1800
San Diego Strike Force: +2000
Green Bay Blizzard: +2000
Tulsa Oilers: +2800
Iowa Barnstormers: +2800
Duke City Gladiators: +2800
Don’t forget to tune in later this evening for my video coverage of Wager Wednesday, which can be found here. Again, I’ll be going live at around 10pm ET/7pm PT, so swing by if you have the chance!
Good luck to all you bettors out there; and let’s start the season by printing the big bucks!!
Welcome to Volume XXI of my “Wager Wednesday” bit, in which I examine the current landscape of the upcoming week’s games, based on lines and odds from DraftKings Sportsbook (unless otherwise stated). After a seven-month wait, it is once again time to try our hand at the betting market of the IFL! The maiden voyage of 2023 was a smashing success, and I am confident that the lessons learned and trends picked up from a season ago can propel an even higher rate of success this year!
Just as I did a season ago, each week following this one will start with a recap of the past week’s games, affirming whether my selections were genius – or moronic. For those of you who are new to the league or the forum this year, here’s a quick recap of the results generated from 2023 ($10 unit):
Overall Win/Loss: 58-46 [+$128.70]
Spread Bets: 25-20 [+$27.27]
Over/Under Bets: 18-15 [+$13.64]
Moneyline Bets: 15-11 [+$87.79]
As was the case last year, my picks will lean heavily on advanced metrics and a tailored model which is based mostly on win/loss margin, adjusted strength of schedule, and other outlying factors (for instance, injuries or week-to-week transactions). In running this exercise, we can pinpoint high-probability value picks to leverage and come up with some winning slips where the public might not be the first to find them. The end result, a portfolio with an overwhelmingly high rate of return, with winning marks in each of the three bet categories!
For 2024, I will be introducing a couple of new components to further enhance Wager Wednesday. The first is the “weighted bet” system, which I will use on top of the existing flat betting method, with $10 as the base unit of measurement. Weighted bets will be determined based on the level of confidence of one game in a week compared to the rest of the slate, and each game will be attributed a full-dollar amount between $5 and $20. I’m fascinated to see how this change will impact profitability versus the flat-betting style. Both methods will also have the same total budget for the week: $10 multiplied by the number of games for that week. The second addition is a live webcast, which can be found on my YouTube channel, that I will air each night, with streams starting at roughly 10pm ET/7pm PT. My hope is that the streams will add an extra level of engagement on top of the written posts, so we’ll see how the first few editions go to begin the season.
Now that the stage is set, let’s examine the pair of games that will officially get the 16th season of the IFL underway! Starting with a playoff grudge match on Saturday night:
Saturday 3/16, 9:05 PM ET
Arizona (-5.5) @ Northern Arizona [Arizona favored by 5.5 points to win the game]
Over/Under 96.5 Total Points
Moneyline: ARI -170, NAZ +142
The league chose this particular matchup to lead off the season, and honestly it’s hard to come up with a better alternative. In the 2023 season, the Rattlers/Wranglers series gave fans the biggest playoff upset the league has seen in a decade, along with SCtoC’s nomination for regular season “Game of the Year”, so I’m thrilled to find out what this next chapter holds. Heck, even commissioner Todd Tryon is attending this game in person, which should tell you all you need to know about the anticipation factor. The Rattlers enter 2024 hungry for their first title in seven years, held out of the Championship in each of the past two seasons by the Les Moss-led Wranglers. NAZ will once again rely primarily on newcomers and rookies to lead the charge, and Moss will hope that some stars emerge on offense, which was a pain point for the Wranglers last season (36.9 ppg was last in the league). Meanwhile, Arizona’s got a new quarterback, trading Drew Powell to make way for reigning IFL Championship MVP Dalton Sneed. He enters a scheme containing an exciting mix of returning veterans and high-impact free agent signings (potential Glen Gibbons #RevengeGame). I like the veteran team to take care of business against their upstart rivals. They covered at this number in their road opener last year in QC; I’ll back them to repeat that performance to set the tone for 2024. The Under on the total points is also showing some solid value, as my model projects this game at 89.5.
The Pick: ARI -5.5 Spread, $7 weighted bet
LINE CHANGE: Spread has moved to ARI -6.5 as of Saturday 3/16 at 2:15pm ET. Moneyline payouts have changed to ARI -180, NAZ +150.
Sunday 3/17, 4:05 PM ET
Massachusetts (-3.5) @ Green Bay [Massachusetts favored by 3.5 points to win the game]
Over/Under 91.5 Total Points
Moneyline: MASS -148, GB +124
Following up a sensational Saturday night tilt is a Sunday showdown of two Eastern Conference foes, and the history of Pirates/Blizzard games at Resch Center looks like it came straight from a Hollywood script. The past two tilts in this building have reached overtime, with Massachusetts winning last year and Green Bay taking the 2022 thriller, and the Blizzard rallied on a recovered onside kick late in their 2021 game at Resch to win by four. The Blizzard are seeking a long-awaited return to the playoffs in 2024, while the Pirates look to keep their streak of reaching the playoffs in every year of existence alive. Admittedly, my mind has been fixated on one statistic when trying to prepare a selection for this game: 0-9. That was the Pirates’ road record against the spread in 2023, as they were the only team in the league winless in that category. Until they can prove that they can reach the expected level of execution outside of The Commonwealth, Massachusetts is an easy fade on the spread. Take the home dog at the pivotal field goal plus the hook, and play Green Bay on St. Patty’s Day.
The Pick: GB +3.5 Spread, $13 weighted bet
LINE CHANGE: Spread moved to MASS -4.5 on Saturday 3/16 at 2:15pm ET. Moneyline payouts changed to MASS -155, GB +130. On Sunday 3/17 at 2:45pm ET, Spread moved to MASS -5.5, and moneylines shifted to MASS -166, GB +140
Once we have a wider range of games to choose from, starting with next week’s pack of games, I will cook up my recommended three-leg parlay of the week. These will also be tracked separately from week to week to see how we fare, and the value generated from those selections.
Here’s a look as well at the Futures market, for anyone seeking to predict the winner of the 2024 IFL Championship Game (August 17th) well in advance!
Frisco Fighters: +380
Arizona Rattlers: +475
Massachusetts Pirates: +650
Tucson Sugar Skulls: +750
Bay Area Panthers: +750
Jacksonville Sharks: +850
San Antonio Gunslingers: +1100
Quad City Steamwheelers: +1100
Northern Arizona Wranglers: +1200
Sioux Falls Storm: +1200
Vegas Knight Hawks: +1800
San Diego Strike Force: +2000
Green Bay Blizzard: +2000
Tulsa Oilers: +2800
Iowa Barnstormers: +2800
Duke City Gladiators: +2800
Don’t forget to tune in later this evening for my video coverage of Wager Wednesday, which can be found here. Again, I’ll be going live at around 10pm ET/7pm PT, so swing by if you have the chance!
Good luck to all you bettors out there; and let’s start the season by printing the big bucks!!
