Post by alecs on Apr 3, 2024 11:00:54 GMT -8
Happy Wednesday, IFL Fans!
Welcome to Volume XXIV of my “Wager Wednesday” bit, in which I examine the current landscape of the upcoming week’s games, based on lines and odds from DraftKings Sportsbook (unless otherwise stated). As an advocate of accountability, I will recap my results - whether genius or moronic - from the prior week as well. With that, let's see how my picks from last week turned out:
• SXF @ MASS – OVER 77.5 [$19.09 flat win, $22.91 weighted win]
To quote the great sportscaster Mike Lange, “Hallelujah, Hollywood!” For Over bettors who stayed the course, that patience was rewarded with a relatively painless victory on Friday night. Kickstarted by 30 points in the first 15 minutes of play, the Storm and Pirates found consistent stretches of point-scoring production throughout the whole game, led notably by a hyper-efficient Alejandro Bennifield (15/16 passing with 5 TD’s). A Pirates touchdown with about six minutes left in the game vaulted the point total above the 77.5 mark, much to the delight of many fans in attendance at Tsongas Center. In the end, the Pirates were able to stay a step ahead of the Storm to the tune of a hard-fought 49-41 win, becoming the first team in the IFL to reach three wins and extending their overall home winning streak to nine games. Bad Beat alert for any Sioux Falls +7.5 bettors, with their final touchdown of the game followed by a missed extra point, which ended up smoking that wager by the hook. It was also a massive result for DraftKings over the public, which poured 82% of the handle (or total dollars on a given bet type) on Sioux Falls to pull off the upset.
• DUKE @ FRI – FRI -13.5 Spread [Loss]
In a sequence fairly similar to the first two games of the season, we see a scenario where the Bad Beat giveth – and in this instance the Bad Beat taketh away. Needing a 14-point win for the cover, Frisco led by ten to start the fourth quarter, at which point a sequence of Frisco missed FG, Duke City INT, Frisco turnover on downs, and Duke City fumble dwindled the clock down to about four minutes to go. A one-yard run by T.J. Edwards extended the margin to 17, but the Gladiators had time for one final drive to come up with the pivotal garbage time touchdown. Spoiler Alert – they got it, with Javin Kilgo connecting with Jeff Carr for the touchdown that would give Duke City the dreaded “backdoor cover.” The Fighters get to 2-0 thanks to the 49-40 winning effort, but for the second consecutive week record an ATS loss. Give Duke City credit, though, for the way they diligently fought the entire game – even though their chances at actually winning this one were arguably impractical. And bear in mind, they played this past Monday, meaning much less time to rest and recoup.
• TUC @ NAZ – TUC +110 Moneyline [Loss]
Fans were treated to a classic shootout in Saturday’s only game – most ironically from two teams whose recent head-to-head history has offered mostly grinding defensive duels. Neither team backed down, with the lead changing hands at 12 different points in the contest, and it truly came down to which team possessed the ball with the best chance of a last-second winning score. The Wranglers happened to be the team with that fortune, as a David Elder touchdown run with just 11 seconds to go put NAZ on top. The Skulls did have a prayer on their final drive, but a heave for the endzone got intercepted at the goal line as time expired, ending Tucson’s bid for the upset. Northern Arizona gets a mark in the win column for the first time in 2024, edging their in-state rivals 54-48.
• JAX @ VGS – JAX +6.5 Spread [$19.09 flat win, $21.00 weighted win]
Perhaps our first entry in the series of bets firmly in the category of “Wagers that had absolutely no business winning but somehow pulled through”. The Knight Hawks picked up where they left off last week, overwhelming a Jacksonville side that looked sluggish at times, as they still have some adjusting to do in translating their NAL success into the IFL. Vegas led wire-to-wire and led by as many as 20 points in the third quarter, but the Sharks refused to quit and at least kept themselves in the conversation the entire way. The defining moment of the wager came with just minutes left, when Vegas intercepted a Jacksonville pass in the endzone, taking the ball away with a 13-point advantage. Translation: It would have taken a miracle for the Sharks to get the ball back with a chance at the backdoor cover. And that’s precisely what Jacksonville got when they recovered a Joey Mancuso fumble with a minute-plus remaining on the clock. And with 41 seconds left, Jacksonville punched in the touchdown – and the required extra point – to pull within six. And Vegas iced the game on its final drive with a first down – rather than a touchdown – to seal the game, on a play that was downed inside the one-yard line. Vegas advances to 2-0 with the 39-33 win, with the game script bailing out JAX spread bettors and leaving VGS spread bettors in absolute shambles, losing both by the hook and by less than half a yard. As Jon Rothstein would say, “The Epitome of Brutality.”
• ARI @ BAY – BAY -1.5 Spread [$19.09 flat win, $15.27 weighted win]
Here’s the second entry in our newly created series entitled “Wagers that had absolutely no business winning but somehow pulled through” – with the Rattlers and Panthers playing another instant classic to add to their budding rivalry. Bay Area got out to a strong start, building a 14-point lead late into the first half. The Rattlers would catch some fire, though, ripping a 21-0 run spanning well into the third quarter, which wound up putting them ahead by seven. The Panthers fought back to tie the game at 41, and late in the fourth quarter, Arizona threatened to score again, which would have made a cover at -1.5 far more difficult. But just like Jacksonville/Vegas, it would be a fumble lost by the opposition which provided the Panthers with a chance at a late winner. Even a field goal would have gotten the job done for us – but the Panthers wound up with six points to retake the lead with three seconds on the clock. A Hail Mary attempt from the Rattlers never left the hand of Lorenzo Brown, as he was sacked by a host of Panthers linemen to end the threat. Bay Area begins its title defense on the right foot, thwarting the Rattlers 47-41. Pour one out for anyone who had the Over (set at 88.5), as a botched snap on the PAT after the game-winning Bay Area touchdown would keep the game at 88 total points – short by the hook.
• SA @ SD – OVER 75.5 [$19.09 flat win, $24.82 weighted win]
As if Sunday’s betting action wasn’t enough, Monday night would go on to feature what may stand as the “Game of the Year”. Let me first say, what were oddsmakers smoking when they set this total in the mid-70’s?? This game basically adopted the game script of Saturday’s Tucson/NAZ game and took it to eleven. The “Over” wound up cashing with over three minutes left in the third quarter, and that was only the beginning! We had a touchdown with eight seconds left by the Gunslingers to take a 61-56 lead. A questionable squib kick attempt gave the Strike Force amazing field position, which they converted into a go-ahead touchdown to make the score 63-61 San Diego. And the ensuing kickoff was a lateral bonanza that saw a Strike Force special teamer steal the ball and take it across the goal line for a touchdown to end the game! 69-61 was the final score of San Diego’s win, with the 130 (!) points tying for second most in an IFL game in the past two seasons. And say a prayer for anyone who had San Antonio on the spread (+2.5), as the miracle kickoff TD attempt backfired and cooked that wager. Without a shadow of a doubt, a worthy Scott Van Pelt “Bad Beat”.
Holy Toledo! In a week of wagering that saw several bets decided by the hook – or half a yard – or a scoreboard-tilting touchdown at the very end of the game – by nothing short of pure miracle, we attain our second consecutive winning week, compiling a 4-2 record! Honestly, Week 3 might stand as the most suspenseful week of the entire season, both for viewers and bettors. The flat method took our $60 budget and turned it into $76.36, for a net gain of $16.36. The weighted method, meanwhile, wound up returning $84.00 for the week and a net gain of $24.00. Overall this season, the flat method has resulted in net gain of $32.24 (ROI 23.03%), whereas the weighted method clocks in with a total net gain of $28.51 (ROI 20.36%), so still advantage flat bettors. The weighted method made some significant ground this week, with all our heaviest wagers making it to the cashier! And through three weeks, our win/loss record stands at 9-5, meaning that anyone who has tailed this year’s wagers so far has seen MASSIVE returns!
The Three-Leg Parlay of Week 3 was halted on the first leg Friday night, with Sioux Falls short of covering the 7.5-point spread by that half-point hook. The Storm had some chances late – but Dean Sarris hooked the PAT wide left after the Storm got to within eight, and the Storm offense was held out of the endzone on its final possession of the ballgame. Another tough loss to keep us away from the big payout. For what it’s worth, the Jacksonville Moneyline (+200) pick as the second leg would have made the parlay a loser anyways, with Vegas taking the win there. Only correct leg was the laugher that was San Antonio/San Diego Over 77.5. That makes us 0-for-2 on parlays, with net loss of $20.
The schedule for Week 4 will almost certainly call for the first edition of “Inside the IFL” for 2024, with all five games set for Saturday night, with kickoff times at either 7:05pm or 8:05pm Eastern. With every game bound to overlap, I will need to raise my game and give birth to “The Cinco Box” so I can have an eye on every game simultaneously! Six teams have the week off (ARI, FRI, MASS, SD, SXF, VGS), and three teams will play their home openers. We need just three victories to call it a winning week this time, will our picks lead us to that result? And will the third time be the charm for our parlay attempt? Let’s get cooking!
Saturday 4/6, 7:05 PM ET
Bay Area (-8.5) @ Jacksonville
Over/Under 84.5
Moneyline: BAY -290, JAX +235
Ladies and gentlemen, I present to you the “UEFA Super Cup” of Indoor Football! For the only time this season, two reigning indoor/arena league champions will battle in Duval County, with the Sharks (2023 NAL Champs) and Panthers (2023 IFL Champs) taking center stage in what will be the home opener for Jacksonville. We’ll have to see what kind of boost home-turf advantage gives the Sharks, who have already been tested twice on the road, both defeats. They may very well need every bit of it, with a strong Panthers team that just won a clutch game versus Arizona on Sunday lining up against them. On paper, and by the early eye test, this is a game that Bay Area should come out on top, but I have to ride with the wave of one-score games and hope we get another here. JAX surprisingly is 2-0 ATS (granted, both by the hook), and playing at home should help normalize the playing field for the Sharks. Give me Jacksonville on the points for the second consecutive week.
The Pick: Jacksonville +8.5 Spread, $8 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Panthers 44 – Sharks 43
LINE CHANGE: The total for this game has decreased from 84.5 to 81.5, effective as of Friday 4/5 at 9:20pm ET.
Saturday 4/6, 7:05 PM ET
Northern Arizona (-2.5) @ San Antonio
Over/Under 97.5
Moneyline: NAZ -125, SA +105
Our other NAL transfer also makes its home debut as an IFL team this week, with the Gunslingers welcoming the Wranglers into Freeman Coliseum for an early season intra-conference battle. San Antonio suffered a heartbreaker in Monday’s 69-61 loss to the Strike Force, while the 1-1 Wranglers take their suddenly blazing offense into Alamo City. Sam Castronova played an authoritative debut game in the IFL, accounting for eight of the Gunslingers touchdowns on Monday Night, while Wranglers wide receiver RZ McCorker may be the most electric offensive playmaker in the IFL right now. This game should be neck and neck, as both teams have started the season with an up-tempo style of attack. At least one trend will have to give way here, as home teams are 10-4 thus far, but underdogs are just 2-12. And this is the first road game of the season for NAZ, so a good test to see how well their game travels outside of Prescott Valley. For this game, I will side with the home outfit, with my model predicting them as outright winners. In the words of Clarence Boddicker, “Guns, guns, guns!!”
The Pick: San Antonio +105 Moneyline, $7 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Gunslingers 46 – Wranglers 44
LINE CHANGE: The total for this game decreased from 97.5 to 94.5 on Friday 4/5 at 9:20pm ET. It again changed from 94.5 to 95.5 as of Saturday 4/6 at 6:30pm ET.
Saturday 4/6, 8:05 PM ET
Green Bay @ Quad City (-6.5)
Over/Under 85.5
Moneyline: GB +170, QC -205
The Blizzard and Steamwheelers add another chapter to their long-standing rivalry, which dates as far back as the AF2 days when Green Bay started play in 2003. The trilogy last season saw the home team win all three times, with Quad City taking its two games in Moline and the Blizzard winning the lone matchup at the Resch Center. The quarterback battle between Max Meylor and Judd Erickson will be interesting to watch, particularly where both defenses have started out hot. Both teams also seeking out win number two on the season to keep up with the likes of Massachusetts and Frisco in the East. This is the first pick of the season that will truly leverage the potential power of the weighted method, as I do something with this game that I found myself averse to doing a season ago: We’re picking the favorite outright here. I know, it’s arguably the easiest choice on the board, so forgive me for appearing a bit chintzy here. But favorites so far, as mentioned in the NAZ/SA game, are 12-2, which sparks all sorts of confidence. Couple that with the barrage of close games, and the dominance of the home team in this series history, and I do believe it’s the right play, even with the heavy juice.
The Pick: Quad City -205 Moneyline, $16 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Steamwheelers 47 – Blizzard 42
LINE CHANGE: Spread has changed from QC -6.5 to QC -4. Moneyline odds have changed to GB +140, QC -166. All changes as of Friday 4/5 at 9:20pm ET.
Saturday 4/6, 8:05 PM ET
Iowa @ Tulsa (-7)
Over/Under 77.5
Moneyline: IOWA +215, TUL -265
BOK Center will host a deceptively important matchup between two teams that want to start logging wins earlier rather than later, with the Oilers hosting the Iowa Barnstormers on Saturday night. Both teams had a bye last week in preparation for this one, the third installment in this all-time series where both prior wins came from the visitors’ side. Following that logic, Iowa is certainly capable of winning this fixture, but I do not believe is a likely enough chance to roll the dice on the moneyline. We also, at least for now, have an even-number point spread (seven points on the dot), which is notable in its own right. But for this game, we get a point total that I simply cannot pass up. Both matchups last year easily made this number (54-48 and 48-40), and the 2024 offenses for both teams appear to have far higher upside than their 2023 counterparts – not to mention D.J. Peterson back for Iowa. All three games from last week that were set in the 70’s blasted that total into the sun, it’s not hard to see these rivals lighting up the scoreboard in the Sooner State. Play Iowa/Tulsa “Over.”
The Pick: OVER 77.5, $12 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Oilers 47 – Barnstormers 39
LINE CHANGE: Spread has changed from TUL -7 to TUL -4.5. Moneyline odds have changed to IOWA +170, TUL -205. All changes as of Friday 4/5, 9:20pm ET.
Saturday 4/6, 8:05 PM ET
Tucson (-4.5) @ Duke City
Over/Under 85.5
Moneyline: TUC -166, DUKE +140
Duke City returns home for a date with the Sugar Skulls, as both teams set sights on recording that all-important first win of the 2024 season. The teams battled on three occasions in 2023, with the Sugar Skulls victorious in two of them, and once at Rio Rancho. In his first start last week, Skulls QB Mylik Mitchell offered shades of Drew Powell with his performance, consistently making plays with his legs while also showing some serious zip on his pass attempts. Meanwhile, Javin Kilgo of the Gladiators played a solid redemption game last week against a tough defense at Frisco, and while the turnovers were still present, Kilgo played solid enough overall to keep viewers entertained until the end. This may be the toughest game so far to spot the best value, with my model churning out pretty much the exact lines that we have before us. So I’ll side this time with the home dogs, who are getting four and the hook, serving as solid insurance in case the game comes down to a deciding field goal. Which judging by how the first three weeks panned out, might be more likely than one would initially think.
The Pick: Duke City +4.5 Spread, $7 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Sugar Skulls 46 – Gladiators 42
Recommended Three-Leg Parlay of the Week:
For this week’s parlay, I’m looking at some wagers from games that I do like, but did not feature in any of the single game bets above. We do not have the benefit of spacing out our selections across multiple days, with all games taking place on Saturday. I’ll stick with my past method – at least for one more week – on the current parlay structure: One Spread, one O/U, and one Money. But I may change things up next week if favorites continue to dominate. Maybe I’ll set a +400 minimum value going forward and have that be the new benchmark. With that, I see a possible winner with this triplet:
1st leg: Northern Arizona @ San Antonio – UNDER 97.5 (-110)
2nd leg: Green Bay @ Quad City – Blizzard +6.5 Spread (-110)
3rd leg: Tucson @ Duke City – Sugar Skulls Moneyline (-166)
Total Odds: +484 [$10.00 wager, Max Payout $58.40]
Here’s a look as well at the Futures market, for anyone seeking to predict the winner of the 2024 IFL Championship Game (August 17th) well in advance! Odds decreases from last week will be indicated in red, and increases in green.
Frisco Fighters: +370
Massachusetts Pirates: +450
Bay Area Panthers: +600
Arizona Rattlers: +600
San Diego Strike Force: +800
Vegas Knight Hawks: +900
Tucson Sugar Skulls: +1100
San Antonio Gunslingers: +1100
Quad City Steamwheelers: +1100
Northern Arizona Wranglers: +1500
Sioux Falls Storm: +1800
Jacksonville Sharks: +1800
Green Bay Blizzard: +2200
Iowa Barnstormers: +3500
Tulsa Oilers: +3500
Duke City Gladiators: +3500
Don’t forget to tune in later this evening for my video coverage of Wager Wednesday, which can be found here. Again, I’ll be going live at around 10pm ET/7pm PT, so swing by if you have the chance!
Good luck to all you bettors out there; and let’s print out the big bucks!!
Welcome to Volume XXIV of my “Wager Wednesday” bit, in which I examine the current landscape of the upcoming week’s games, based on lines and odds from DraftKings Sportsbook (unless otherwise stated). As an advocate of accountability, I will recap my results - whether genius or moronic - from the prior week as well. With that, let's see how my picks from last week turned out:
• SXF @ MASS – OVER 77.5 [$19.09 flat win, $22.91 weighted win]
To quote the great sportscaster Mike Lange, “Hallelujah, Hollywood!” For Over bettors who stayed the course, that patience was rewarded with a relatively painless victory on Friday night. Kickstarted by 30 points in the first 15 minutes of play, the Storm and Pirates found consistent stretches of point-scoring production throughout the whole game, led notably by a hyper-efficient Alejandro Bennifield (15/16 passing with 5 TD’s). A Pirates touchdown with about six minutes left in the game vaulted the point total above the 77.5 mark, much to the delight of many fans in attendance at Tsongas Center. In the end, the Pirates were able to stay a step ahead of the Storm to the tune of a hard-fought 49-41 win, becoming the first team in the IFL to reach three wins and extending their overall home winning streak to nine games. Bad Beat alert for any Sioux Falls +7.5 bettors, with their final touchdown of the game followed by a missed extra point, which ended up smoking that wager by the hook. It was also a massive result for DraftKings over the public, which poured 82% of the handle (or total dollars on a given bet type) on Sioux Falls to pull off the upset.
• DUKE @ FRI – FRI -13.5 Spread [Loss]
In a sequence fairly similar to the first two games of the season, we see a scenario where the Bad Beat giveth – and in this instance the Bad Beat taketh away. Needing a 14-point win for the cover, Frisco led by ten to start the fourth quarter, at which point a sequence of Frisco missed FG, Duke City INT, Frisco turnover on downs, and Duke City fumble dwindled the clock down to about four minutes to go. A one-yard run by T.J. Edwards extended the margin to 17, but the Gladiators had time for one final drive to come up with the pivotal garbage time touchdown. Spoiler Alert – they got it, with Javin Kilgo connecting with Jeff Carr for the touchdown that would give Duke City the dreaded “backdoor cover.” The Fighters get to 2-0 thanks to the 49-40 winning effort, but for the second consecutive week record an ATS loss. Give Duke City credit, though, for the way they diligently fought the entire game – even though their chances at actually winning this one were arguably impractical. And bear in mind, they played this past Monday, meaning much less time to rest and recoup.
• TUC @ NAZ – TUC +110 Moneyline [Loss]
Fans were treated to a classic shootout in Saturday’s only game – most ironically from two teams whose recent head-to-head history has offered mostly grinding defensive duels. Neither team backed down, with the lead changing hands at 12 different points in the contest, and it truly came down to which team possessed the ball with the best chance of a last-second winning score. The Wranglers happened to be the team with that fortune, as a David Elder touchdown run with just 11 seconds to go put NAZ on top. The Skulls did have a prayer on their final drive, but a heave for the endzone got intercepted at the goal line as time expired, ending Tucson’s bid for the upset. Northern Arizona gets a mark in the win column for the first time in 2024, edging their in-state rivals 54-48.
• JAX @ VGS – JAX +6.5 Spread [$19.09 flat win, $21.00 weighted win]
Perhaps our first entry in the series of bets firmly in the category of “Wagers that had absolutely no business winning but somehow pulled through”. The Knight Hawks picked up where they left off last week, overwhelming a Jacksonville side that looked sluggish at times, as they still have some adjusting to do in translating their NAL success into the IFL. Vegas led wire-to-wire and led by as many as 20 points in the third quarter, but the Sharks refused to quit and at least kept themselves in the conversation the entire way. The defining moment of the wager came with just minutes left, when Vegas intercepted a Jacksonville pass in the endzone, taking the ball away with a 13-point advantage. Translation: It would have taken a miracle for the Sharks to get the ball back with a chance at the backdoor cover. And that’s precisely what Jacksonville got when they recovered a Joey Mancuso fumble with a minute-plus remaining on the clock. And with 41 seconds left, Jacksonville punched in the touchdown – and the required extra point – to pull within six. And Vegas iced the game on its final drive with a first down – rather than a touchdown – to seal the game, on a play that was downed inside the one-yard line. Vegas advances to 2-0 with the 39-33 win, with the game script bailing out JAX spread bettors and leaving VGS spread bettors in absolute shambles, losing both by the hook and by less than half a yard. As Jon Rothstein would say, “The Epitome of Brutality.”
• ARI @ BAY – BAY -1.5 Spread [$19.09 flat win, $15.27 weighted win]
Here’s the second entry in our newly created series entitled “Wagers that had absolutely no business winning but somehow pulled through” – with the Rattlers and Panthers playing another instant classic to add to their budding rivalry. Bay Area got out to a strong start, building a 14-point lead late into the first half. The Rattlers would catch some fire, though, ripping a 21-0 run spanning well into the third quarter, which wound up putting them ahead by seven. The Panthers fought back to tie the game at 41, and late in the fourth quarter, Arizona threatened to score again, which would have made a cover at -1.5 far more difficult. But just like Jacksonville/Vegas, it would be a fumble lost by the opposition which provided the Panthers with a chance at a late winner. Even a field goal would have gotten the job done for us – but the Panthers wound up with six points to retake the lead with three seconds on the clock. A Hail Mary attempt from the Rattlers never left the hand of Lorenzo Brown, as he was sacked by a host of Panthers linemen to end the threat. Bay Area begins its title defense on the right foot, thwarting the Rattlers 47-41. Pour one out for anyone who had the Over (set at 88.5), as a botched snap on the PAT after the game-winning Bay Area touchdown would keep the game at 88 total points – short by the hook.
• SA @ SD – OVER 75.5 [$19.09 flat win, $24.82 weighted win]
As if Sunday’s betting action wasn’t enough, Monday night would go on to feature what may stand as the “Game of the Year”. Let me first say, what were oddsmakers smoking when they set this total in the mid-70’s?? This game basically adopted the game script of Saturday’s Tucson/NAZ game and took it to eleven. The “Over” wound up cashing with over three minutes left in the third quarter, and that was only the beginning! We had a touchdown with eight seconds left by the Gunslingers to take a 61-56 lead. A questionable squib kick attempt gave the Strike Force amazing field position, which they converted into a go-ahead touchdown to make the score 63-61 San Diego. And the ensuing kickoff was a lateral bonanza that saw a Strike Force special teamer steal the ball and take it across the goal line for a touchdown to end the game! 69-61 was the final score of San Diego’s win, with the 130 (!) points tying for second most in an IFL game in the past two seasons. And say a prayer for anyone who had San Antonio on the spread (+2.5), as the miracle kickoff TD attempt backfired and cooked that wager. Without a shadow of a doubt, a worthy Scott Van Pelt “Bad Beat”.
Holy Toledo! In a week of wagering that saw several bets decided by the hook – or half a yard – or a scoreboard-tilting touchdown at the very end of the game – by nothing short of pure miracle, we attain our second consecutive winning week, compiling a 4-2 record! Honestly, Week 3 might stand as the most suspenseful week of the entire season, both for viewers and bettors. The flat method took our $60 budget and turned it into $76.36, for a net gain of $16.36. The weighted method, meanwhile, wound up returning $84.00 for the week and a net gain of $24.00. Overall this season, the flat method has resulted in net gain of $32.24 (ROI 23.03%), whereas the weighted method clocks in with a total net gain of $28.51 (ROI 20.36%), so still advantage flat bettors. The weighted method made some significant ground this week, with all our heaviest wagers making it to the cashier! And through three weeks, our win/loss record stands at 9-5, meaning that anyone who has tailed this year’s wagers so far has seen MASSIVE returns!
The Three-Leg Parlay of Week 3 was halted on the first leg Friday night, with Sioux Falls short of covering the 7.5-point spread by that half-point hook. The Storm had some chances late – but Dean Sarris hooked the PAT wide left after the Storm got to within eight, and the Storm offense was held out of the endzone on its final possession of the ballgame. Another tough loss to keep us away from the big payout. For what it’s worth, the Jacksonville Moneyline (+200) pick as the second leg would have made the parlay a loser anyways, with Vegas taking the win there. Only correct leg was the laugher that was San Antonio/San Diego Over 77.5. That makes us 0-for-2 on parlays, with net loss of $20.
The schedule for Week 4 will almost certainly call for the first edition of “Inside the IFL” for 2024, with all five games set for Saturday night, with kickoff times at either 7:05pm or 8:05pm Eastern. With every game bound to overlap, I will need to raise my game and give birth to “The Cinco Box” so I can have an eye on every game simultaneously! Six teams have the week off (ARI, FRI, MASS, SD, SXF, VGS), and three teams will play their home openers. We need just three victories to call it a winning week this time, will our picks lead us to that result? And will the third time be the charm for our parlay attempt? Let’s get cooking!
Saturday 4/6, 7:05 PM ET
Bay Area (-8.5) @ Jacksonville
Over/Under 84.5
Moneyline: BAY -290, JAX +235
Ladies and gentlemen, I present to you the “UEFA Super Cup” of Indoor Football! For the only time this season, two reigning indoor/arena league champions will battle in Duval County, with the Sharks (2023 NAL Champs) and Panthers (2023 IFL Champs) taking center stage in what will be the home opener for Jacksonville. We’ll have to see what kind of boost home-turf advantage gives the Sharks, who have already been tested twice on the road, both defeats. They may very well need every bit of it, with a strong Panthers team that just won a clutch game versus Arizona on Sunday lining up against them. On paper, and by the early eye test, this is a game that Bay Area should come out on top, but I have to ride with the wave of one-score games and hope we get another here. JAX surprisingly is 2-0 ATS (granted, both by the hook), and playing at home should help normalize the playing field for the Sharks. Give me Jacksonville on the points for the second consecutive week.
The Pick: Jacksonville +8.5 Spread, $8 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Panthers 44 – Sharks 43
LINE CHANGE: The total for this game has decreased from 84.5 to 81.5, effective as of Friday 4/5 at 9:20pm ET.
Saturday 4/6, 7:05 PM ET
Northern Arizona (-2.5) @ San Antonio
Over/Under 97.5
Moneyline: NAZ -125, SA +105
Our other NAL transfer also makes its home debut as an IFL team this week, with the Gunslingers welcoming the Wranglers into Freeman Coliseum for an early season intra-conference battle. San Antonio suffered a heartbreaker in Monday’s 69-61 loss to the Strike Force, while the 1-1 Wranglers take their suddenly blazing offense into Alamo City. Sam Castronova played an authoritative debut game in the IFL, accounting for eight of the Gunslingers touchdowns on Monday Night, while Wranglers wide receiver RZ McCorker may be the most electric offensive playmaker in the IFL right now. This game should be neck and neck, as both teams have started the season with an up-tempo style of attack. At least one trend will have to give way here, as home teams are 10-4 thus far, but underdogs are just 2-12. And this is the first road game of the season for NAZ, so a good test to see how well their game travels outside of Prescott Valley. For this game, I will side with the home outfit, with my model predicting them as outright winners. In the words of Clarence Boddicker, “Guns, guns, guns!!”
The Pick: San Antonio +105 Moneyline, $7 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Gunslingers 46 – Wranglers 44
LINE CHANGE: The total for this game decreased from 97.5 to 94.5 on Friday 4/5 at 9:20pm ET. It again changed from 94.5 to 95.5 as of Saturday 4/6 at 6:30pm ET.
Saturday 4/6, 8:05 PM ET
Green Bay @ Quad City (-6.5)
Over/Under 85.5
Moneyline: GB +170, QC -205
The Blizzard and Steamwheelers add another chapter to their long-standing rivalry, which dates as far back as the AF2 days when Green Bay started play in 2003. The trilogy last season saw the home team win all three times, with Quad City taking its two games in Moline and the Blizzard winning the lone matchup at the Resch Center. The quarterback battle between Max Meylor and Judd Erickson will be interesting to watch, particularly where both defenses have started out hot. Both teams also seeking out win number two on the season to keep up with the likes of Massachusetts and Frisco in the East. This is the first pick of the season that will truly leverage the potential power of the weighted method, as I do something with this game that I found myself averse to doing a season ago: We’re picking the favorite outright here. I know, it’s arguably the easiest choice on the board, so forgive me for appearing a bit chintzy here. But favorites so far, as mentioned in the NAZ/SA game, are 12-2, which sparks all sorts of confidence. Couple that with the barrage of close games, and the dominance of the home team in this series history, and I do believe it’s the right play, even with the heavy juice.
The Pick: Quad City -205 Moneyline, $16 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Steamwheelers 47 – Blizzard 42
LINE CHANGE: Spread has changed from QC -6.5 to QC -4. Moneyline odds have changed to GB +140, QC -166. All changes as of Friday 4/5 at 9:20pm ET.
Saturday 4/6, 8:05 PM ET
Iowa @ Tulsa (-7)
Over/Under 77.5
Moneyline: IOWA +215, TUL -265
BOK Center will host a deceptively important matchup between two teams that want to start logging wins earlier rather than later, with the Oilers hosting the Iowa Barnstormers on Saturday night. Both teams had a bye last week in preparation for this one, the third installment in this all-time series where both prior wins came from the visitors’ side. Following that logic, Iowa is certainly capable of winning this fixture, but I do not believe is a likely enough chance to roll the dice on the moneyline. We also, at least for now, have an even-number point spread (seven points on the dot), which is notable in its own right. But for this game, we get a point total that I simply cannot pass up. Both matchups last year easily made this number (54-48 and 48-40), and the 2024 offenses for both teams appear to have far higher upside than their 2023 counterparts – not to mention D.J. Peterson back for Iowa. All three games from last week that were set in the 70’s blasted that total into the sun, it’s not hard to see these rivals lighting up the scoreboard in the Sooner State. Play Iowa/Tulsa “Over.”
The Pick: OVER 77.5, $12 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Oilers 47 – Barnstormers 39
LINE CHANGE: Spread has changed from TUL -7 to TUL -4.5. Moneyline odds have changed to IOWA +170, TUL -205. All changes as of Friday 4/5, 9:20pm ET.
Saturday 4/6, 8:05 PM ET
Tucson (-4.5) @ Duke City
Over/Under 85.5
Moneyline: TUC -166, DUKE +140
Duke City returns home for a date with the Sugar Skulls, as both teams set sights on recording that all-important first win of the 2024 season. The teams battled on three occasions in 2023, with the Sugar Skulls victorious in two of them, and once at Rio Rancho. In his first start last week, Skulls QB Mylik Mitchell offered shades of Drew Powell with his performance, consistently making plays with his legs while also showing some serious zip on his pass attempts. Meanwhile, Javin Kilgo of the Gladiators played a solid redemption game last week against a tough defense at Frisco, and while the turnovers were still present, Kilgo played solid enough overall to keep viewers entertained until the end. This may be the toughest game so far to spot the best value, with my model churning out pretty much the exact lines that we have before us. So I’ll side this time with the home dogs, who are getting four and the hook, serving as solid insurance in case the game comes down to a deciding field goal. Which judging by how the first three weeks panned out, might be more likely than one would initially think.
The Pick: Duke City +4.5 Spread, $7 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Sugar Skulls 46 – Gladiators 42
Recommended Three-Leg Parlay of the Week:
For this week’s parlay, I’m looking at some wagers from games that I do like, but did not feature in any of the single game bets above. We do not have the benefit of spacing out our selections across multiple days, with all games taking place on Saturday. I’ll stick with my past method – at least for one more week – on the current parlay structure: One Spread, one O/U, and one Money. But I may change things up next week if favorites continue to dominate. Maybe I’ll set a +400 minimum value going forward and have that be the new benchmark. With that, I see a possible winner with this triplet:
1st leg: Northern Arizona @ San Antonio – UNDER 97.5 (-110)
2nd leg: Green Bay @ Quad City – Blizzard +6.5 Spread (-110)
3rd leg: Tucson @ Duke City – Sugar Skulls Moneyline (-166)
Total Odds: +484 [$10.00 wager, Max Payout $58.40]
Here’s a look as well at the Futures market, for anyone seeking to predict the winner of the 2024 IFL Championship Game (August 17th) well in advance! Odds decreases from last week will be indicated in red, and increases in green.
Frisco Fighters: +370
Massachusetts Pirates: +450
Bay Area Panthers: +600
Arizona Rattlers: +600
San Diego Strike Force: +800
Vegas Knight Hawks: +900
Tucson Sugar Skulls: +1100
San Antonio Gunslingers: +1100
Quad City Steamwheelers: +1100
Northern Arizona Wranglers: +1500
Sioux Falls Storm: +1800
Jacksonville Sharks: +1800
Green Bay Blizzard: +2200
Iowa Barnstormers: +3500
Tulsa Oilers: +3500
Duke City Gladiators: +3500
Don’t forget to tune in later this evening for my video coverage of Wager Wednesday, which can be found here. Again, I’ll be going live at around 10pm ET/7pm PT, so swing by if you have the chance!
Good luck to all you bettors out there; and let’s print out the big bucks!!
