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Post by alecs on Jul 10, 2022 20:02:39 GMT -8
Gonna be quite a race indeed! Assuming I've accounted for everything correctly, the scenarios go down like this:
Tucson clinches #3 with win (@ Bay Area) - OR - Duke City loses (@ NAZ)
Duke City clinches #3 with win (@ NAZ) - AND - Tucson loses (@ Bay Area)
Whoever wins the Iowa @ Quad City game on Friday will clinch a playoff spot.
If Iowa wins, the Barnstormers clinch the #3 spot, while Sioux Falls would clinch the #4 spot without even having to play a snap on Saturday at Frisco.
If Quad City wins, Sioux Falls must win against Frisco in order to clinch, in which case Sioux Falls would take #3 and QC #4. If Sioux Falls is unable to win that game, Iowa would sneak in as the #4.
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Post by alecs on Jul 13, 2022 18:39:06 GMT -8
An update on my previous post - I saw this tonight, and it differs compared to what I had concluded at the end of play last week. The fact that Tucson has some say in the playoff scenario tells me that the head-to-head tiebreaker works a bit differently if more than two teams are involved (and in this case, when one team plays another more frequently). Since the head-to-head theoretically comes before strength of schedule, I deduced that the combined head-to-head would shake out like this: * Iowa 3-3 currently (2-2 vs. SF / 1-1 vs. QC) * Quad City 2-3 currently (1-2 vs. SF / 1-1 vs. IA) * Sioux Falls 4-3 (2-2 vs. IA / 2-1 vs. QC) Obviously, an uneven amount of games here, with QC having one less in the end than IA and SF. By that "Circle of Parity" logic, aka each team beat each other at some point, the head-to-head tiebreaker must be skipped over, and suddenly the outcome of Tucson vs. Bay Area can decide whether IA or QC makes it in. At least that's how I interpreted Todd Tryon's rationale on his weekly "Inside the IFL" skit. So Friday's game between the Barnstormers and Steamwheelers will not be a true "Win and you're in" type of game, because Quad City would need a loss from either SF or TUC to get their spot secured. The chart below I've created based on what I've learned... | IOWA | QUAD CITY | SIOUX FALLS | TUCSON | BAY AREA | EAST #3 SEED | EAST #4 SEED | EAST #5 (ELIMINATED) | | Win | Loss | Win | Win | Loss | IOWA | SIOUX FALLS | QUAD CITY | | Win | Loss | Win | Loss | Win | IOWA | SIOUX FALLS | QUAD CITY | | Win | Loss | Loss | Win | Loss | IOWA | SIOUX FALLS | QUAD CITY | | Win | Loss | Loss | Loss | Win | IOWA | SIOUX FALLS | QUAD CITY | | Loss | Win | Win | Win | Loss | IOWA | SIOUX FALLS | QUAD CITY | | Loss | Win | Win | Loss | Win | SIOUX FALLS | QUAD CITY | IOWA | | Loss | Win | Loss | Win | Loss | QUAD CITY | IOWA | SIOUX FALLS | | Loss | Win | Loss | Loss | Win | QUAD CITY | IOWA | SIOUX FALLS |
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Post by Monika on Jul 13, 2022 19:13:41 GMT -8
But if Iowa wins, they are in. If Quad City wins, that's when things get muddy. It always seems like Tryon is making up the rules as he goes.
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Post by alecs on Jul 13, 2022 19:28:55 GMT -8
But if Iowa wins, they are in. If Quad City wins, that's when things get muddy. It always seems like Tryon is making up the rules as he goes. Correct - Iowa win ensures they are the #3 seed and would travel to Mass for the 1st round, and additionally would clinch the #4 seed for Sioux Falls, making the Frisco game a glorified tune-up. What Tryon might not have accounted for when he explained the scenario on "Inside the IFL" is that strength of schedule calculation is an always-changing one. An outcome of a totally unrelated game could have an impact, whether positive or negative, that influences the final SOS in the end for any teams that are tied. Some scenarios would see Iowa with the superior strength of schedule, others would favor Sioux Falls. The only other thing I hadn't considered or built into my playoff machine was the process once the 3-way tie was broken. Once that top team (or top two teams) is determined, the tiebreaker restarts with the two remaining "tied" teams. |
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Post by Nevadanut on Jul 13, 2022 20:05:36 GMT -8
But if Iowa wins, they are in. If Quad City wins, that's when things get muddy. It always seems like Tryon is making up the rules as he goes. Correct - Iowa win ensures they are the #3 seed and would travel to Mass for the 1st round, and additionally would clinch the #4 seed for Sioux Falls, making the Frisco game a glorified tune-up. What Tryon might not have accounted for when he explained the scenario on "Inside the IFL" is that strength of schedule calculation is an always-changing one. An outcome of a totally unrelated game could have an impact, whether positive or negative, that influences the final SOS in the end for any teams that are tied. Some scenarios would see Iowa with the superior strength of schedule, others would favor Sioux Falls. The only other thing I hadn't considered or built into my playoff machine was the process once the 3-way tie was broken. Once that top team (or top two teams) is determined, the tiebreaker restarts with the two remaining "tied" teams. I have adjusted the Barnstormers-Steamwheelers breakdowns in the preview with this. All I have to do at this point is alter my draft of the Storm and I'll be all right. There have been a few major changes which I have to edit, but the remaining previews are all done sans those edits. They will be posted tonight. |
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Post by Monika on Jul 15, 2022 21:36:37 GMT -8
This is the IFL standings following Quad City's win over Iowa on July 15.  Now, as we head into Saturday's games, if the Storm lose, they are out of the playoffs. If they win, it's a little more complicated. |
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Post by alecs on Jul 16, 2022 19:55:18 GMT -8
This is the IFL standings following Quad City's win over Iowa on July 15. Now, as we head into Saturday's games, if the Storm lose, they are out of the playoffs. If they win, it's a little more complicated. Based on tonight's outcomes, and the verbiage of the IFL's Twitter posts regarding Quad City and Iowa playoff status, it appears that the Steamwheelers will head to Worcester as the #3 seed, while Iowa travels south as the #4 seed to play the Fighters. Frisco's game will be Friday Night, a scheduling quirk caused by their arena not being available on Saturday or Sunday due to the Big3. |
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Post by alecs on Jul 16, 2022 20:10:25 GMT -8
This is the IFL standings following Quad City's win over Iowa on July 15. Now, as we head into Saturday's games, if the Storm lose, they are out of the playoffs. If they win, it's a little more complicated. Based on tonight's outcomes, and the verbiage of the IFL's Twitter posts regarding Quad City and Iowa playoff status, it appears that the Steamwheelers will head to Worcester as the #3 seed, while Iowa travels south as the #4 seed to play the Fighters. Frisco's game will be Friday Night, a scheduling quirk caused by their arena not being available on Saturday or Sunday due to the Big3. Straight from the league, can confirm my last post is correct. |
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Post by Monika on Jul 16, 2022 20:11:47 GMT -8
This is the IFL standings following Quad City's win over Iowa on July 15. Now, as we head into Saturday's games, if the Storm lose, they are out of the playoffs. If they win, it's a little more complicated. Based on tonight's outcomes, and the verbiage of the IFL's Twitter posts regarding Quad City and Iowa playoff status, it appears that the Steamwheelers will head to Worcester as the #3 seed, while Iowa travels south as the #4 seed to play the Fighters. Frisco's game will be Friday Night, a scheduling quirk caused by their arena not being available on Saturday or Sunday due to the Big3. I've got all the matchups down, as well as dates and times. Both Eastern Conference games are Friday night. The NAZ-Tucson game is Saturday and the Arizona-DC game will be Sunday afternoon. With the third place tiebreaker being just between two teams, it comes down to the head-to-head tiebreaker which favors QC, 2-1. |
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Post by Monika on Jul 16, 2022 21:45:31 GMT -8
Here are the final regular season standings for the IFL:
And here are the first round matchups:
Eastern Conference: Fri., July 22 - #3 Quad City Steamwheelers (9-7) at #2 Massachusetts Pirates (11-5), 4:05 p.m.
Eastern Conference: Fri., July 22 - #4 Iowa Barnstormers (9-7) at #1 Frisco Fighters (14-2), 5:05 p.m.
Western Conference: Sat., July 23 - #3 Tucson Sugar Skulls (9-7) at #2 Northern Arizona Wranglers (12-4), 6:05 p.m.
Western Conference: Sun., July 24 - #4 Duke City Gladiators (8-8) at #1 Arizona Rattlers (13-3), 3:05 p.m.
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