Post by alecs on Jul 10, 2024 9:02:38 GMT -8
Happy Wednesday, IFL Fans!
Welcome to Volume XXXVIII of my Wager Wednesday series, in which I examine the current landscape of the upcoming week’s games, based on lines and odds from DraftKings Sportsbook (unless otherwise stated). As an advocate of accountability, I will recap my results - whether genius or moronic - from the prior week as well. With that, let's see how my picks from last week turned out:
• MASS @ SA – SA -3 Spread [$10.00 flat push, $13.00 weighted push]
Okay, if you had “Week-opening Stalemate” on your Bingo card for this week, I salute you! This game was every bit as amazing as advertised, with the Pirates and Gunslingers going toe-to-toe once again. Both offenses were crazy efficient, and both kickers were clubbing deuces throughout the whole game, including some drop kick action from Henry Nell of the Pirates. A Gunslingers turnover late in the game gave the Pirates a chance to snag a late score and the victory. They got the touchdown from Jimmie Robinson, his fifth of the game, but his score left time for the Gunslingers to match that score and win the game. Stop me if you’ve heard this one before, but the Guns got it done with a touchdown with about 12 seconds left. A Nell field goal attempt to force overtime hooked wide left, and the Guns finally get a close game to go their way, as predicted. Thanks to a two-point conversion decision, we manage the push, with San Antonio winning by exactly three points on a 58-55 final score. Despite the strong win, the Gunslingers were eliminated from playoff contention due to Sunday’s outcomes. It will be interesting to see how San Antonio plays out the string in light of that reality.
• JAX @ IOWA – JAX +5.5 Spread [$19.09 flat win, $13.36 weighted win]
Oh, me of little faith. Why did I not entrust more weight in fading the suddenly reeling Barnstormers? The Sharks set out to prove that the compete level they demonstrated last week in Sioux Falls was no fluke, and my goodness did they convince us that was the case. Three different Sharks found the endzone in the first quarter as the Sharks blitzed out to an early 23-7 lead. The closest Iowa could scratch back was to a nine-point margin, struggling to make up any ground with Jacksonville keeping their foot on the throat of their hosts with near perfection on offense, defense, and special teams. The thorough 69-43 pounding of Iowa stands as the first set of consecutive wins for Jacksonville at the IFL level. Like with San Antonio, though, the wins started to funnel in too late for the Sharks, with Quad City’s win on Saturday night officially eliminating them from the playoffs.
• SXF @ QC – QC -6.5 Spread [LOSS]
This was supposed to be destiny… this was $1 Beer night at Vibrant Arena! In a more serious light, though, this game played out precisely the way that we had feared when making this selection, with a Storm team playing with pride and forcing the rival Steamwheelers to earn every yard and point. Believe it or not, Quad City never actually led this game by more than six points… until the overtime period. We very nearly got the exact sequence we needed to steal this win, too! Dean Sarris tied the game at the buzzer (QC was up 3 at the time), and Quad City got seven points with their opening OT possession (where they had to get the ball first for us to have a shot). All we needed was a Steamwheeler stop to secure our winnings, but the Storm found paydirt on their very first play. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the Storm went for two and the win, but a short slant pass was incomplete, intended for Kentrez Bell who argued for a defensive penalty that was not called. It stands as a Steamwheeler win, defeating the Storm at home in overtime for the second time this season, 45-44. Horrible beat for Under 88.5 bettors, as the OT scored just enough points to spike the total to 89, crushing anyone who had the under by the hook.
• VGS @ SD – VGS +114 Moneyline [LOSS]
My sincerest apologies to Knight Hawk fans, as my dastardly “Moneyline Voodoo” curse of 2024 rages onward. We did come agonizingly close to a victory, which is pretty miraculous considering how the late stages of this game unfolded. Vegas led by four at the half, but a San Diego run fueled by a pair of interceptions and a recovered kickoff saw the Strike Force suddenly jump out to a 16-point lead with about 11 minutes left. The Knight Hawks bounced back with a quick score, a defensive stop, and another score to cut the lead to one with about five minutes left. In a uniquely bizarre sequence, the Strike Force scored a touchdown inside the one-minute warning on a play that featured an offensive holding call that was declined by Vegas so that they had time to try for the tie or the lead. With 17 seconds left, Vegas scored, leaving just the two point conversion to put us on top and give Vegas the lead. San Diego stayed strong, though, keeping the Knight Hawks out and securing the win by one point. With the thrilling 60-59 decision, San Diego trades places with Vegas for the second seed in the West.
• FRI @ DUKE – OVER 86.5 [$19.09 flat win, $22.91 weighted win]
Did… uh… anybody else have “Frisco and Duke City combine for 85 points in the first half” as the game script for this one? I sure didn’t, but there’s no question whatsoever that we will take this wager victory, coming with about the least amount of sweat possible. Frisco was unstoppable, with T.J. Edwards exploding on a helpless Gladiators defense to the tune of TEN total touchdowns on the evening. The Fighters nearly made it to this number by solo effort, but Duke City, while their effort was admirable, came nowhere near close to putting any sort of scare into the Fighters. In the end, the Fighters set a new team single-game high for points, romping the Gladiators by count of 81-55 for a laughably easy win.
• NAZ @ BAY – UNDER 92.5 [LOSS]
I’ve made mention a couple different times that the 6:00pm Sunday time slot has been nothing but a cursed wasteland where even my most confident and high-likelihood wagers have gone to die. If the ending of this game doesn’t convince you of the profound truth and validity of that assertion, then absolutely no game will. For starters, the Panthers dominated through the first three quarters, building a 40-15 lead and seemingly coasting towards earning home-turf advantage in the playoffs. Just gaze your eyes upon this exponentially improbable sequence of events after Bay Area led 46-23 with nine minutes left:
o NAZ touchdown plus drop kick, 46-31 with five minutes left
o NAZ recovers onside kick
o NAZ touchdown, 46-37 with one minute left
o NAZ recovers ANOTHER onside kick
o NAZ touchdown plus another drop kick, 46-45 with four SECONDS left
o Axel Perez game-winning Deuce, 47-46
Now, remember, EVERY ONE OF THESE had to go the Wranglers way in order for the Under to fail. To recap, that’s TWO consecutive onside kick recoveries (I’d project about an 8% chance for kicking team to recover on any random attempt), THREE consecutive touchdown drives against the league’s number-two scoring defense, TWO drop kicks, AND a do-or-die Deuce to split the uprights. Using some rough numbers to further contextualize this, if we assume a 40% of scoring a touchdown against Bay Area on a give possession, and a 25% chance of hitting a deuce, along with our aforementioned 8% onside kick recovery chance, the odds of this exact sequence playing out again is roughly one out of 8,200 (roughly 0.00012%). A lesser man would probably retire from sports betting on the spot if this occurred. For me, a seven-minute screaming session alone in my car was enough to calm my nerves.
With that mathematical mind-melt finally out of the way, let’s talk about the historic implications of this game, and how much it means to the Wranglers in the grand scheme of things. They just pulled off a 25-point road comeback against the West’s best team, good for the largest recorded come-from-behind win in IFL History, just SIX DAYS after the passing of beloved coach David Moran, who must have been smiling ear-to-ear watching this comeback from the heavens. There’s no question that this game, how it ended, and the buildup leading to it will stand as the undisputed high mark of the 2024 IFL Season, and it honestly deserves a mention at the upcoming ESPYs. I’m genuinely not kidding around when I say that. Wranglers take down Panthers, 47-46, in largest IFL comeback, let’s lobby to make this the feel-good Story of the Season across the entire Sports universe!!
• TUC @ ARI – ARI -14.5 Spread [LOSS]
Uh-huh. Once again, we made the pick that on paper made the most sense as the prime “Don’t overthink it” pick. But, exactly like we feared, laying two-plus touchdowns to any team can easily fall into a trap if the underdog scores first and/or the favorite starts slowly. Needless to say, both worst-case scenarios played out in Glendale on Sunday, with Tucson scoring the first touchdown and continuing a surprising start that saw them take a 22-7 lead in front of a stunned crowd of 9,577 Rattlers faithful. Eventually, the Rattlers were able to turn things around, with a retaliatory effort sparked by a sensational missed field goal return by Jamal Miles right before the first half ended. At that point, Dalton Sneed and the offense finally clicked, and the defense got a huge fumble recovery while protecting a seven-point lead in the closing moments of the game. Our single game slip and last leg of our weekly parlay both ended up getting clipped by unfavorable game script, as Arizona only needed a first down rather than a touchdown to run out the remaining clock to seal the win. It was closer than anticipated, and far from the prettiest collective effort, but it’s a good enough outing for the Rattlers to climb into third place, defeating their in-state rival Sugar Skulls, 44-37.
The absurd dry stretch of 6:00pm Sunday games threw its best punch at me and landed a knockout blow to any hope of a winning week. Having gone 0-2 in those games this week (and now a nauseating 5-9 in such games all season), the win/loss slips record tumbled down to a losing mark of 2-4-1, forcing us to make up four games to catch back up to even with just 14 games left to play. Three of those losses could have easily been wins, with our NAZ/Bay Area Under pick losing by the hook, Vegas losing by just a single point at San Diego, and the Steamwheelers one overtime defensive stand away from covering by the hook. It’s these narrowest of margins that collectively are keeping us from a ceiling week of potentially 5-1-1. Simply put, the swing plays at end of games just haven’t gone our way this season as they did a year ago, forcing us into a serious uphill climb for a strong finish to 2024. Our $70 budget for the week was converted into $48.18 for the flat method and $49.27 for the weighted method, resulting in net loss figures of -$21.82 (flat) and -$20.73 (weighted). On the season, the aggregate record falls to four games below even, entering this week at 54-58-2, with year-to-date net loss marks standing at –$95.98 (flat) and -$108.50 (weighted).
For the first time in over a month, our weekly parlay was looking firmly on pace to have the legs to make it to the cashier. The Pirates and Gunslingers combined for 113 total points, easily beating the pre-kick total of 94.5, while the Steamwheelers grinded out a rather ugly but equally as effective win against the Storm in overtime. All we needed from the Sugar Skulls and Rattlers was a relatively modest 87 or more combined points for that long overdue cash inflow! In a development that can only be described as laughably natural at this point, the Tucson/Arizona game was the ONLY ONE of the week which failed to eclipse its implied total, leaving us a touchdown short of a much-needed morale booster (81 total points in a 44-37 Rattler win). With two weeks remaining in the regular season, we’ve still only cooked one successful parlay, and total net loss has hit triple digits at -$105.02. We will hence officially fall short of one of our preseason milestones of grabbing four regular-season parlay wins. I’ll tell you, the last time I had this much trouble putting a three-piece puzzle together, it was the Shrine of the Silver Monkey. While the season-long result will leave us begging for more, our attention now goes to cashing at least one more attempt before the playoffs begin. Who knows, maybe we sneak out two wins in a row and chart an unlikely path back into the green!
The penultimate week of the regular season will feature a dozen teams taking the field for battle, with four top heavyweights in Frisco, Massachusetts, Arizona, and San Diego each getting a bye before their respective season finales next week. We’re getting all six games done in one shot on Saturday evening, with games ranging from 7:00pm to 9:00pm Eastern time. (Go-go-gadget, Hexa-Box!!) Our fate will be dependent on how swiftly we can navigate the historically deadly 9:00pm pocket, where three of the six games will take place (we are a dreadful 9-16 on the season in this time slot). Can we exorcise these late-evening demons and set up a thrilling finale in Week 19? Is it possible we can set up a chance to make a run at a winning record at the very end? Time to channel our very best efforts into this set of slips, let’s take a look at the lines!
Saturday 7/13, 7:05 PM ET
Green Bay (-13.5) @ Jacksonville
Over/Under 89
Moneyline: GB -550, JAX +360 [ESPNBet]
In the season-ending ping-pong between Green Bay and Frisco for home-turf advantage on the Eastern side of the playoff bracket, it is now the Blizzard’s turn to match Frisco’s win from last week to even their records up at 12-3. Green Bay still holds control of the tiebreaker if both squads end 13-3 after next week’s action. That task appears at least a shade more challenging now for Green Bay than it did just two short weeks ago, with the Sharks suddenly finding life in the Kaleb Barker era with road wins over Sioux Falls and Iowa. The streaking Sharks will be put firmly to the test against the Blizzard and their elite defensive front, while the Duval-based defense will face the unenviable task of slowing down the run-heavy Green Bay offense that crushed the Sharks for 63 points in the last meeting at Resch Center. This is a game that I believe Green Bay locks down early; they have a strong chance of limiting Jacksonville at or below the 35 points given up in the prior meeting. Blizz are 8-6 to the Under, and as long as their offense doesn’t go nuclear for high 50’s or low 60’s, there’s a puncher’s chance this game stays sub-90.
The Pick: UNDER 89, $7 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Blizzard 51 – Sharks 34
LINE CHANGE: The spread has shifted to GB -12.5 just moments before kickoff. Both sides of spread still -110 odds. Change effective as of Saturday 7/13 at 6:25pm ET.
Saturday 7/13, 8:05 PM ET
Sioux Falls @ Iowa (-1.5)
Over/Under 88.5
Moneyline: SXF +100, IOWA -120
It’s a bit of a bummer that this great local rivalry won’t have much fanfare this weekend, with both the Storm and Barnstormers out of the playoff picture. It sets up a pure battle of wills, with dignity and bragging rights at stake and perhaps a glimpse of the not-too-distant future of both teams as Brandon Alt and Jiya Wright attempt to strengthen their respective cases for starting positions in 2025. It will be interesting to see how both teams approach this game, what the level of tempo will be like, and whether one of these young signal-callers can put together a standout performance – or if the coaching staffs decide to lean more heavily upon their respective running games. Wright in particular could flourish if that’s the game script that unfolds, having logged a 120-yard rushing effort on 20 totes last week. It ain’t much of a spread bet, with only a point and the hook separating either team, but I’ll default to the underdog in this game. Sioux Falls to cover, with an outright win firmly in play against a down-and-out Barnstormer side.
The Pick: Sioux Falls +1.5 Spread, $5 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Barnstormers 43 – Storm 42
Saturday 7/13, 8:05 PM ET
Quad City (-4.5) @ Tulsa
Over/Under 88.5
Moneyline: QC -205, TUL +170
As opposed to the other 8:00 kickoff on the slate, Quad City and Tulsa will meet in what is essentially the start of the playoffs for both sides. Tulsa must win out and get some help next week from the Sharks to continue their season, while the Steamwheelers need just one more win to clinch a playoff berth and retain a chance at grabbing the third seed in the East. It’s perhaps a cruel repeat of last year’s leadup to the playoffs for Quad City, who were relegated to the fourth seed with a late loss in Tulsa on the final week of the 2023 season. The Steamwheelers hope that history does not repeat itself, but unlike last year, Tulsa is also in the playoff hunt, so they will be hungry as ever to keep the “worst-to-first” storyline alive for as long as they can. The health status of both teams certainly cannot be ignored, and that factor that does not favor the Oilers with Jarrod Ware Jr. and Josh Crockett both shelved with injuries and Quad City coming in with a relatively clean bill of health. But desperation can be Tulsa’s X-Factor, and with their season on the line in front of their voluminous fanbase, I believe the Oilers throw positively everything – including the kitchen sink – at the team they are trying to hunt down. Home dog to cover at four and a half.
The Pick: Tulsa +4.5 Spread, $7 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Steamwheelers 45 – Oilers 43
LINE CHANGE: After an initial change to the spread to Quad City -3, another change brings it closer to even, with Quad City now just 2.5 point favorites after opening at 4.5. Both sides of the spread now sit at -110 for odds. Moneyline stands at QC -130 and TUL +110. All changes effective as of Saturday 7/13 at 3:00pm ET. This could be the result of some injury updates on the Oilers side, as Jarrod Ware Jr. was activated off Injured Reserve and will resume his role as featured back. Defensive spearhead Tre Harvey was added to IR, but the team hopes the addition of Calvin Bundage can soften the blow.
Saturday 7/13, 9:05 PM ET
Duke City @ Bay Area (-13.5)
Over/Under 85.5
Moneyline: DUKE +340, BAY -500 [ESPNBet]
After last week’s staggering collapse against Northern Arizona, the Panthers will have another shot of securing home-turf in the Western bracket if they can take care of business against the 2-12 Duke City Gladiators. I have been firmly eyeing these opening lines since the gut-wrenching loss on last week’s Under bet, and in spite of that horrific beat we are fearlessly going back to the well and trying the same wager again, with a few defining reasons in support of that decision. The first, Bay Area Unders are still 10-4, while Duke City is not far behind at 9-5 to the Under. Second, this total is likely inflated by at least a couple points due to both teams reaching uncharacteristic Overs (emphatically in Duke City’s case) last week. And third, the Panthers defense has shown the ability to rebound quickly following a loss, surrendering just 36 and 32 points in those bounce-back outings, one of which was against these same Gladiators with Hasan Rogers at quarterback. Our process is right, and I can assuredly say that we are not going to lose due to a six-piece, one-out-of-8,200 chance sequence for a second straight week. Even at the lowest O/U of the week, take the “Under” for Gladiators/Panthers.
The Pick: UNDER 85.5, $12 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Panthers 49 – Gladiators 31
Saturday 7/13, 9:05 PM ET
San Antonio (-7.5) @ Tucson
Over/Under 99.5
Moneyline: SA -345, TUC +275
The cheer of defeating the Pirates on Saturday turned into heartbreak of elimination on Sunday for the Gunslingers, having been eliminated by wins from the Rattlers and Wranglers to thwart their playoff chances. They’ll have an interesting pair of games to close out the season, starting with Saturday’s contest against a Tucson team that just put up a reasonably good fight in a seven-point loss at Arizona last Sunday. In a sense, two opposites will collide in this one, as four straight Gunslingers games have made the Over, and each of the last six Sugar Skulls games have stayed on the Under, meaning someone’s streak will have to be snapped. I’m going to operate under the assumption that Sam Castronova will remain San Antonio’s starting QB for at least this game, which makes the Gunslingers convincing favorites. With me apparently back to being terrible at picking Tucson games, I’ll be taking the high road on this one and backing San Antonio for an outright win, for my chalkiest play of the week.
The Pick: San Antonio -345 Moneyline, $18 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Gunslingers 55 – Sugar Skulls 42
Saturday 7/13, 9:05 PM ET
Vegas @ Northern Arizona (-1)
Over/Under 101.5
Moneyline: VGS -110, NAZ -110
Heavens, this Western Conference is something else! Vegas, a team that had been in the top two for the majority of the season, suddenly see their grasp of a playoff spot far from secure, and a matchup against an emotionally charged Wranglers team could effectively serve as a Western Conference play-in game, where the loser might wind up on the outside looking in when everything is said and done. The Knight Hawks will attempt to rebound after getting ousted by a point to the Strike Force last week, and Northern Arizona will look for a follow-up outing to their awe-inspiring comeback at Bay Area. For what it’s worth, the Wranglers won the last meeting in Henderson, 58-52, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see another scoring bonanza unfold in Prescott Valley (I’m glancing angrily at you, Axel Perez). These teams like to play high-tempo and have already shown a comfort level with navigating through shootouts. And as alluded to before, we will have plenty of opportunities for helpful dropkicks and deuces in a favorable venue for kickers. Find a seat, grab some popcorn, and play Vegas/NAZ on the Over – even at triple digits.
The Pick: OVER 101.5, $11 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Knight Hawks 56 – Wranglers 52
Recommended Three-Leg Parlay of the Week:
Ah, the football gods gave us a cruel tease last week, with the first two legs correct on Saturday, only for Sunday’s leg to flame out on us. With everything on Saturday this week, there will be little time for reflection, only results! Two spreads and an O/U pick make up this week’s accumulated card, easily meeting our +400 minimum odds requirement, and if all goes well this gives us nearly six-to-one payout potential! Will the treble see the cashier for just the second time in 2024?
1st leg: Green Bay @ Jacksonville – Blizzard -13.5 Spread (-110)
2nd leg: Quad City @ Tulsa – UNDER 88.5 (-110)
3rd leg: Vegas @ Northern Arizona – Knight Hawks +1 Spread (-118)
Total Odds: +573 [$10.00 wager, Max Payout $67.33]
Here’s a look as well at the Futures market, for anyone seeking to lock in their pick now for the winner of the IFL Championship Game on August 17! Odds decreases from last week will be indicated in red, and increases in green.
Green Bay Blizzard: +350
Bay Area Panthers: +350
Frisco Fighters: +350
San Diego Strike Force: +650
Arizona Rattlers: +700
Massachusetts Pirates: +800
Vegas Knight Hawks: +850
Northern Arizona Wranglers: +1400
Quad City Steamwheelers: +1800
Tulsa Oilers: +10000
OFF THE BOARD: Tucson Sugar Skulls, Duke City Gladiators, Sioux Falls Storm, Jacksonville Sharks, Iowa Barnstormers, San Antonio Gunslingers
Don’t forget to tune in later this evening for my video coverage of Wager Wednesday, which can be found here. Due to a family matter, I will be delaying my live stream, but I will still try to be available at 11pm ET/8pm PT tonight. If you’re free at that time, swing by if you have the chance!
Good luck to all you bettors out there; and let’s print out the big bucks!!
Welcome to Volume XXXVIII of my Wager Wednesday series, in which I examine the current landscape of the upcoming week’s games, based on lines and odds from DraftKings Sportsbook (unless otherwise stated). As an advocate of accountability, I will recap my results - whether genius or moronic - from the prior week as well. With that, let's see how my picks from last week turned out:
• MASS @ SA – SA -3 Spread [$10.00 flat push, $13.00 weighted push]
Okay, if you had “Week-opening Stalemate” on your Bingo card for this week, I salute you! This game was every bit as amazing as advertised, with the Pirates and Gunslingers going toe-to-toe once again. Both offenses were crazy efficient, and both kickers were clubbing deuces throughout the whole game, including some drop kick action from Henry Nell of the Pirates. A Gunslingers turnover late in the game gave the Pirates a chance to snag a late score and the victory. They got the touchdown from Jimmie Robinson, his fifth of the game, but his score left time for the Gunslingers to match that score and win the game. Stop me if you’ve heard this one before, but the Guns got it done with a touchdown with about 12 seconds left. A Nell field goal attempt to force overtime hooked wide left, and the Guns finally get a close game to go their way, as predicted. Thanks to a two-point conversion decision, we manage the push, with San Antonio winning by exactly three points on a 58-55 final score. Despite the strong win, the Gunslingers were eliminated from playoff contention due to Sunday’s outcomes. It will be interesting to see how San Antonio plays out the string in light of that reality.
• JAX @ IOWA – JAX +5.5 Spread [$19.09 flat win, $13.36 weighted win]
Oh, me of little faith. Why did I not entrust more weight in fading the suddenly reeling Barnstormers? The Sharks set out to prove that the compete level they demonstrated last week in Sioux Falls was no fluke, and my goodness did they convince us that was the case. Three different Sharks found the endzone in the first quarter as the Sharks blitzed out to an early 23-7 lead. The closest Iowa could scratch back was to a nine-point margin, struggling to make up any ground with Jacksonville keeping their foot on the throat of their hosts with near perfection on offense, defense, and special teams. The thorough 69-43 pounding of Iowa stands as the first set of consecutive wins for Jacksonville at the IFL level. Like with San Antonio, though, the wins started to funnel in too late for the Sharks, with Quad City’s win on Saturday night officially eliminating them from the playoffs.
• SXF @ QC – QC -6.5 Spread [LOSS]
This was supposed to be destiny… this was $1 Beer night at Vibrant Arena! In a more serious light, though, this game played out precisely the way that we had feared when making this selection, with a Storm team playing with pride and forcing the rival Steamwheelers to earn every yard and point. Believe it or not, Quad City never actually led this game by more than six points… until the overtime period. We very nearly got the exact sequence we needed to steal this win, too! Dean Sarris tied the game at the buzzer (QC was up 3 at the time), and Quad City got seven points with their opening OT possession (where they had to get the ball first for us to have a shot). All we needed was a Steamwheeler stop to secure our winnings, but the Storm found paydirt on their very first play. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the Storm went for two and the win, but a short slant pass was incomplete, intended for Kentrez Bell who argued for a defensive penalty that was not called. It stands as a Steamwheeler win, defeating the Storm at home in overtime for the second time this season, 45-44. Horrible beat for Under 88.5 bettors, as the OT scored just enough points to spike the total to 89, crushing anyone who had the under by the hook.
• VGS @ SD – VGS +114 Moneyline [LOSS]
My sincerest apologies to Knight Hawk fans, as my dastardly “Moneyline Voodoo” curse of 2024 rages onward. We did come agonizingly close to a victory, which is pretty miraculous considering how the late stages of this game unfolded. Vegas led by four at the half, but a San Diego run fueled by a pair of interceptions and a recovered kickoff saw the Strike Force suddenly jump out to a 16-point lead with about 11 minutes left. The Knight Hawks bounced back with a quick score, a defensive stop, and another score to cut the lead to one with about five minutes left. In a uniquely bizarre sequence, the Strike Force scored a touchdown inside the one-minute warning on a play that featured an offensive holding call that was declined by Vegas so that they had time to try for the tie or the lead. With 17 seconds left, Vegas scored, leaving just the two point conversion to put us on top and give Vegas the lead. San Diego stayed strong, though, keeping the Knight Hawks out and securing the win by one point. With the thrilling 60-59 decision, San Diego trades places with Vegas for the second seed in the West.
• FRI @ DUKE – OVER 86.5 [$19.09 flat win, $22.91 weighted win]
Did… uh… anybody else have “Frisco and Duke City combine for 85 points in the first half” as the game script for this one? I sure didn’t, but there’s no question whatsoever that we will take this wager victory, coming with about the least amount of sweat possible. Frisco was unstoppable, with T.J. Edwards exploding on a helpless Gladiators defense to the tune of TEN total touchdowns on the evening. The Fighters nearly made it to this number by solo effort, but Duke City, while their effort was admirable, came nowhere near close to putting any sort of scare into the Fighters. In the end, the Fighters set a new team single-game high for points, romping the Gladiators by count of 81-55 for a laughably easy win.
• NAZ @ BAY – UNDER 92.5 [LOSS]
I’ve made mention a couple different times that the 6:00pm Sunday time slot has been nothing but a cursed wasteland where even my most confident and high-likelihood wagers have gone to die. If the ending of this game doesn’t convince you of the profound truth and validity of that assertion, then absolutely no game will. For starters, the Panthers dominated through the first three quarters, building a 40-15 lead and seemingly coasting towards earning home-turf advantage in the playoffs. Just gaze your eyes upon this exponentially improbable sequence of events after Bay Area led 46-23 with nine minutes left:
o NAZ touchdown plus drop kick, 46-31 with five minutes left
o NAZ recovers onside kick
o NAZ touchdown, 46-37 with one minute left
o NAZ recovers ANOTHER onside kick
o NAZ touchdown plus another drop kick, 46-45 with four SECONDS left
o Axel Perez game-winning Deuce, 47-46
Now, remember, EVERY ONE OF THESE had to go the Wranglers way in order for the Under to fail. To recap, that’s TWO consecutive onside kick recoveries (I’d project about an 8% chance for kicking team to recover on any random attempt), THREE consecutive touchdown drives against the league’s number-two scoring defense, TWO drop kicks, AND a do-or-die Deuce to split the uprights. Using some rough numbers to further contextualize this, if we assume a 40% of scoring a touchdown against Bay Area on a give possession, and a 25% chance of hitting a deuce, along with our aforementioned 8% onside kick recovery chance, the odds of this exact sequence playing out again is roughly one out of 8,200 (roughly 0.00012%). A lesser man would probably retire from sports betting on the spot if this occurred. For me, a seven-minute screaming session alone in my car was enough to calm my nerves.
With that mathematical mind-melt finally out of the way, let’s talk about the historic implications of this game, and how much it means to the Wranglers in the grand scheme of things. They just pulled off a 25-point road comeback against the West’s best team, good for the largest recorded come-from-behind win in IFL History, just SIX DAYS after the passing of beloved coach David Moran, who must have been smiling ear-to-ear watching this comeback from the heavens. There’s no question that this game, how it ended, and the buildup leading to it will stand as the undisputed high mark of the 2024 IFL Season, and it honestly deserves a mention at the upcoming ESPYs. I’m genuinely not kidding around when I say that. Wranglers take down Panthers, 47-46, in largest IFL comeback, let’s lobby to make this the feel-good Story of the Season across the entire Sports universe!!
• TUC @ ARI – ARI -14.5 Spread [LOSS]
Uh-huh. Once again, we made the pick that on paper made the most sense as the prime “Don’t overthink it” pick. But, exactly like we feared, laying two-plus touchdowns to any team can easily fall into a trap if the underdog scores first and/or the favorite starts slowly. Needless to say, both worst-case scenarios played out in Glendale on Sunday, with Tucson scoring the first touchdown and continuing a surprising start that saw them take a 22-7 lead in front of a stunned crowd of 9,577 Rattlers faithful. Eventually, the Rattlers were able to turn things around, with a retaliatory effort sparked by a sensational missed field goal return by Jamal Miles right before the first half ended. At that point, Dalton Sneed and the offense finally clicked, and the defense got a huge fumble recovery while protecting a seven-point lead in the closing moments of the game. Our single game slip and last leg of our weekly parlay both ended up getting clipped by unfavorable game script, as Arizona only needed a first down rather than a touchdown to run out the remaining clock to seal the win. It was closer than anticipated, and far from the prettiest collective effort, but it’s a good enough outing for the Rattlers to climb into third place, defeating their in-state rival Sugar Skulls, 44-37.
The absurd dry stretch of 6:00pm Sunday games threw its best punch at me and landed a knockout blow to any hope of a winning week. Having gone 0-2 in those games this week (and now a nauseating 5-9 in such games all season), the win/loss slips record tumbled down to a losing mark of 2-4-1, forcing us to make up four games to catch back up to even with just 14 games left to play. Three of those losses could have easily been wins, with our NAZ/Bay Area Under pick losing by the hook, Vegas losing by just a single point at San Diego, and the Steamwheelers one overtime defensive stand away from covering by the hook. It’s these narrowest of margins that collectively are keeping us from a ceiling week of potentially 5-1-1. Simply put, the swing plays at end of games just haven’t gone our way this season as they did a year ago, forcing us into a serious uphill climb for a strong finish to 2024. Our $70 budget for the week was converted into $48.18 for the flat method and $49.27 for the weighted method, resulting in net loss figures of -$21.82 (flat) and -$20.73 (weighted). On the season, the aggregate record falls to four games below even, entering this week at 54-58-2, with year-to-date net loss marks standing at –$95.98 (flat) and -$108.50 (weighted).
For the first time in over a month, our weekly parlay was looking firmly on pace to have the legs to make it to the cashier. The Pirates and Gunslingers combined for 113 total points, easily beating the pre-kick total of 94.5, while the Steamwheelers grinded out a rather ugly but equally as effective win against the Storm in overtime. All we needed from the Sugar Skulls and Rattlers was a relatively modest 87 or more combined points for that long overdue cash inflow! In a development that can only be described as laughably natural at this point, the Tucson/Arizona game was the ONLY ONE of the week which failed to eclipse its implied total, leaving us a touchdown short of a much-needed morale booster (81 total points in a 44-37 Rattler win). With two weeks remaining in the regular season, we’ve still only cooked one successful parlay, and total net loss has hit triple digits at -$105.02. We will hence officially fall short of one of our preseason milestones of grabbing four regular-season parlay wins. I’ll tell you, the last time I had this much trouble putting a three-piece puzzle together, it was the Shrine of the Silver Monkey. While the season-long result will leave us begging for more, our attention now goes to cashing at least one more attempt before the playoffs begin. Who knows, maybe we sneak out two wins in a row and chart an unlikely path back into the green!
The penultimate week of the regular season will feature a dozen teams taking the field for battle, with four top heavyweights in Frisco, Massachusetts, Arizona, and San Diego each getting a bye before their respective season finales next week. We’re getting all six games done in one shot on Saturday evening, with games ranging from 7:00pm to 9:00pm Eastern time. (Go-go-gadget, Hexa-Box!!) Our fate will be dependent on how swiftly we can navigate the historically deadly 9:00pm pocket, where three of the six games will take place (we are a dreadful 9-16 on the season in this time slot). Can we exorcise these late-evening demons and set up a thrilling finale in Week 19? Is it possible we can set up a chance to make a run at a winning record at the very end? Time to channel our very best efforts into this set of slips, let’s take a look at the lines!
Saturday 7/13, 7:05 PM ET
Green Bay (-13.5) @ Jacksonville
Over/Under 89
Moneyline: GB -550, JAX +360 [ESPNBet]
In the season-ending ping-pong between Green Bay and Frisco for home-turf advantage on the Eastern side of the playoff bracket, it is now the Blizzard’s turn to match Frisco’s win from last week to even their records up at 12-3. Green Bay still holds control of the tiebreaker if both squads end 13-3 after next week’s action. That task appears at least a shade more challenging now for Green Bay than it did just two short weeks ago, with the Sharks suddenly finding life in the Kaleb Barker era with road wins over Sioux Falls and Iowa. The streaking Sharks will be put firmly to the test against the Blizzard and their elite defensive front, while the Duval-based defense will face the unenviable task of slowing down the run-heavy Green Bay offense that crushed the Sharks for 63 points in the last meeting at Resch Center. This is a game that I believe Green Bay locks down early; they have a strong chance of limiting Jacksonville at or below the 35 points given up in the prior meeting. Blizz are 8-6 to the Under, and as long as their offense doesn’t go nuclear for high 50’s or low 60’s, there’s a puncher’s chance this game stays sub-90.
The Pick: UNDER 89, $7 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Blizzard 51 – Sharks 34
LINE CHANGE: The spread has shifted to GB -12.5 just moments before kickoff. Both sides of spread still -110 odds. Change effective as of Saturday 7/13 at 6:25pm ET.
Saturday 7/13, 8:05 PM ET
Sioux Falls @ Iowa (-1.5)
Over/Under 88.5
Moneyline: SXF +100, IOWA -120
It’s a bit of a bummer that this great local rivalry won’t have much fanfare this weekend, with both the Storm and Barnstormers out of the playoff picture. It sets up a pure battle of wills, with dignity and bragging rights at stake and perhaps a glimpse of the not-too-distant future of both teams as Brandon Alt and Jiya Wright attempt to strengthen their respective cases for starting positions in 2025. It will be interesting to see how both teams approach this game, what the level of tempo will be like, and whether one of these young signal-callers can put together a standout performance – or if the coaching staffs decide to lean more heavily upon their respective running games. Wright in particular could flourish if that’s the game script that unfolds, having logged a 120-yard rushing effort on 20 totes last week. It ain’t much of a spread bet, with only a point and the hook separating either team, but I’ll default to the underdog in this game. Sioux Falls to cover, with an outright win firmly in play against a down-and-out Barnstormer side.
The Pick: Sioux Falls +1.5 Spread, $5 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Barnstormers 43 – Storm 42
Saturday 7/13, 8:05 PM ET
Quad City (-4.5) @ Tulsa
Over/Under 88.5
Moneyline: QC -205, TUL +170
As opposed to the other 8:00 kickoff on the slate, Quad City and Tulsa will meet in what is essentially the start of the playoffs for both sides. Tulsa must win out and get some help next week from the Sharks to continue their season, while the Steamwheelers need just one more win to clinch a playoff berth and retain a chance at grabbing the third seed in the East. It’s perhaps a cruel repeat of last year’s leadup to the playoffs for Quad City, who were relegated to the fourth seed with a late loss in Tulsa on the final week of the 2023 season. The Steamwheelers hope that history does not repeat itself, but unlike last year, Tulsa is also in the playoff hunt, so they will be hungry as ever to keep the “worst-to-first” storyline alive for as long as they can. The health status of both teams certainly cannot be ignored, and that factor that does not favor the Oilers with Jarrod Ware Jr. and Josh Crockett both shelved with injuries and Quad City coming in with a relatively clean bill of health. But desperation can be Tulsa’s X-Factor, and with their season on the line in front of their voluminous fanbase, I believe the Oilers throw positively everything – including the kitchen sink – at the team they are trying to hunt down. Home dog to cover at four and a half.
The Pick: Tulsa +4.5 Spread, $7 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Steamwheelers 45 – Oilers 43
LINE CHANGE: After an initial change to the spread to Quad City -3, another change brings it closer to even, with Quad City now just 2.5 point favorites after opening at 4.5. Both sides of the spread now sit at -110 for odds. Moneyline stands at QC -130 and TUL +110. All changes effective as of Saturday 7/13 at 3:00pm ET. This could be the result of some injury updates on the Oilers side, as Jarrod Ware Jr. was activated off Injured Reserve and will resume his role as featured back. Defensive spearhead Tre Harvey was added to IR, but the team hopes the addition of Calvin Bundage can soften the blow.
Saturday 7/13, 9:05 PM ET
Duke City @ Bay Area (-13.5)
Over/Under 85.5
Moneyline: DUKE +340, BAY -500 [ESPNBet]
After last week’s staggering collapse against Northern Arizona, the Panthers will have another shot of securing home-turf in the Western bracket if they can take care of business against the 2-12 Duke City Gladiators. I have been firmly eyeing these opening lines since the gut-wrenching loss on last week’s Under bet, and in spite of that horrific beat we are fearlessly going back to the well and trying the same wager again, with a few defining reasons in support of that decision. The first, Bay Area Unders are still 10-4, while Duke City is not far behind at 9-5 to the Under. Second, this total is likely inflated by at least a couple points due to both teams reaching uncharacteristic Overs (emphatically in Duke City’s case) last week. And third, the Panthers defense has shown the ability to rebound quickly following a loss, surrendering just 36 and 32 points in those bounce-back outings, one of which was against these same Gladiators with Hasan Rogers at quarterback. Our process is right, and I can assuredly say that we are not going to lose due to a six-piece, one-out-of-8,200 chance sequence for a second straight week. Even at the lowest O/U of the week, take the “Under” for Gladiators/Panthers.
The Pick: UNDER 85.5, $12 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Panthers 49 – Gladiators 31
Saturday 7/13, 9:05 PM ET
San Antonio (-7.5) @ Tucson
Over/Under 99.5
Moneyline: SA -345, TUC +275
The cheer of defeating the Pirates on Saturday turned into heartbreak of elimination on Sunday for the Gunslingers, having been eliminated by wins from the Rattlers and Wranglers to thwart their playoff chances. They’ll have an interesting pair of games to close out the season, starting with Saturday’s contest against a Tucson team that just put up a reasonably good fight in a seven-point loss at Arizona last Sunday. In a sense, two opposites will collide in this one, as four straight Gunslingers games have made the Over, and each of the last six Sugar Skulls games have stayed on the Under, meaning someone’s streak will have to be snapped. I’m going to operate under the assumption that Sam Castronova will remain San Antonio’s starting QB for at least this game, which makes the Gunslingers convincing favorites. With me apparently back to being terrible at picking Tucson games, I’ll be taking the high road on this one and backing San Antonio for an outright win, for my chalkiest play of the week.
The Pick: San Antonio -345 Moneyline, $18 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Gunslingers 55 – Sugar Skulls 42
Saturday 7/13, 9:05 PM ET
Vegas @ Northern Arizona (-1)
Over/Under 101.5
Moneyline: VGS -110, NAZ -110
Heavens, this Western Conference is something else! Vegas, a team that had been in the top two for the majority of the season, suddenly see their grasp of a playoff spot far from secure, and a matchup against an emotionally charged Wranglers team could effectively serve as a Western Conference play-in game, where the loser might wind up on the outside looking in when everything is said and done. The Knight Hawks will attempt to rebound after getting ousted by a point to the Strike Force last week, and Northern Arizona will look for a follow-up outing to their awe-inspiring comeback at Bay Area. For what it’s worth, the Wranglers won the last meeting in Henderson, 58-52, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see another scoring bonanza unfold in Prescott Valley (I’m glancing angrily at you, Axel Perez). These teams like to play high-tempo and have already shown a comfort level with navigating through shootouts. And as alluded to before, we will have plenty of opportunities for helpful dropkicks and deuces in a favorable venue for kickers. Find a seat, grab some popcorn, and play Vegas/NAZ on the Over – even at triple digits.
The Pick: OVER 101.5, $11 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Knight Hawks 56 – Wranglers 52
Recommended Three-Leg Parlay of the Week:
Ah, the football gods gave us a cruel tease last week, with the first two legs correct on Saturday, only for Sunday’s leg to flame out on us. With everything on Saturday this week, there will be little time for reflection, only results! Two spreads and an O/U pick make up this week’s accumulated card, easily meeting our +400 minimum odds requirement, and if all goes well this gives us nearly six-to-one payout potential! Will the treble see the cashier for just the second time in 2024?
1st leg: Green Bay @ Jacksonville – Blizzard -13.5 Spread (-110)
2nd leg: Quad City @ Tulsa – UNDER 88.5 (-110)
3rd leg: Vegas @ Northern Arizona – Knight Hawks +1 Spread (-118)
Total Odds: +573 [$10.00 wager, Max Payout $67.33]
Here’s a look as well at the Futures market, for anyone seeking to lock in their pick now for the winner of the IFL Championship Game on August 17! Odds decreases from last week will be indicated in red, and increases in green.
Green Bay Blizzard: +350
Bay Area Panthers: +350
Frisco Fighters: +350
San Diego Strike Force: +650
Arizona Rattlers: +700
Massachusetts Pirates: +800
Vegas Knight Hawks: +850
Northern Arizona Wranglers: +1400
Quad City Steamwheelers: +1800
Tulsa Oilers: +10000
OFF THE BOARD: Tucson Sugar Skulls, Duke City Gladiators, Sioux Falls Storm, Jacksonville Sharks, Iowa Barnstormers, San Antonio Gunslingers
Don’t forget to tune in later this evening for my video coverage of Wager Wednesday, which can be found here. Due to a family matter, I will be delaying my live stream, but I will still try to be available at 11pm ET/8pm PT tonight. If you’re free at that time, swing by if you have the chance!
Good luck to all you bettors out there; and let’s print out the big bucks!!