Post by alecs on Apr 17, 2024 9:46:30 GMT -8
Happy Wednesday, IFL Fans!
Welcome to Volume XXVI of my “Wager Wednesday” bit, in which I examine the current landscape of the upcoming week’s games, based on lines and odds from DraftKings Sportsbook (unless otherwise stated). As an advocate of accountability, I will recap my results - whether genius or moronic - from the prior week as well. With that, let's see how my picks from last week turned out:
• IOWA @ MASS – MASS -14.5 Spread [$19.09 flat win, $21.00 weighted win]
It was the usual home dominance from the Pirates – along with the familiar starting struggles of the Barnstormers – that headlined Friday’s early window game. For the second straight week, Iowa’s offense could not register a first half touchdown (their lone score was a kickoff return), and this time it resulted in the benching of D.J. Peterson in favor of Kyle King. The Pirates did throw a wrench into this wager, making the decision to pull Alejandro Bennifield after three sensational quarters, but Connor Degenhardt captained the ship well and helped Massachusetts hold the victory margin above two touchdowns. The Pirates become the first IFL team to four wins – and also the first double-digit favorite to cover this season – with a brilliant 54-29 showing.
• SA @ VGS – UNDER 102.5 [Loss]
Note to self: Anytime San Antonio plays a game, bet the Over. Through three games, it’s evident that the Gunslingers are the Indiana Pacers of the IFL: a team that can score on command, and whose defense would make a turnstile blush. The Knight Hawks had nine possessions on the evening, and all nine wound up as touchdowns. Meanwhile, San Antonio’s offense was held out three times – most importantly on a late fourth quarter drive when the score was 57-44. Despite 36 first quarter points, this bet actually could have somehow gone our way. With under a minute to go, Vegas could have earned a first down rather than a touchdown to run the rest of the clock out after the aforementioned defensive stand. Instead, we got a complete defensive breakdown on third down resulting in a 36-yard touchdown pass to a wide open Caleb Holley, cooking both the Guns and Over bettors alike. But it’s the dream end for the Knight Hawks, who remain perfect at 3-0 with the 66-44 shootout triumph, with the 110 total points translating into a loss for the Under.
• QC @ FRI – FRI -11.5 Spread [$19.09 flat win, $24.82 weighted win]
Speaking of offensive efficiency, Saturday night saw a glimpse of the sky-high ceiling of the Frisco Fighters, who went wire-to-wire against the Quad City Steamwheelers, an effort keyed by Frisco scoring a touchdown on every possession except one. Strangely, it was that one empty possession which took place in the fourth quarter that put this bet in a bit of jeopardy, with a feisty Quad City effort getting them to within ten points. It came down to effectively the final play of the game, a fourth and inches which T.J. Edwards easily converted with six seconds to go, bringing sighs of relief to both Frisco spread bettors and over bettors. Edwards’s exclamation point pumped the final score to 54-37 Fighters, who advance to a spotless 3-0 mark in 2024.
• TUL @ SXF – OVER 77.5 [$19.09 flat win, $15.27 weighted win]
A surprising Sunday evening started in Sioux Falls, where the Oilers stormed into Denny Sanford Premier Center and put together arguably their strongest 60-minute game as a franchise. Daniel Smith and the Oiler offense were rolling all evening, converting touchdowns on drives where they had trouble finishing in earlier games, while the defense set the tone in allowing just 14 Sioux Falls points at the half. The end result saw the Storm playing catch-up the rest of the way, essentially making this the most sweat-free betting win so far this season. In a game set at 77.5 points, the Oilers and Storm cleared the mark by a mile, with Tulsa taking the win 56-40, for 96 total points.
• BAY @ TUC – OVER 95.5 [Loss]
A meeting between two of the hottest teams in the IFL, both equipped with high-end offenses, appeared to be shaping up as a shootout early on. The first quarter saw 24 points scored, and the second quarter clocked in with… <checks notes>… zero. Huh. Unfortunately for Over backers, this is the type of sequence we are fearful of, and what we saw on a few instances a year ago. More than 15 minutes of back and forth action with no resulting points is almost sure to ground any hopes of winning an over bet, much less one set in the mid-90’s. In the end, the Panthers were able to silence the hot start of Skulls QB Mylik Mitchell, limiting his unit to 31 points for the entire night. Bay Area continues its title defense in perfect form, putting the stops on the Sugar Skulls 44-31, for a game total of 75 points.
• SD @ ARI – ARI -2.5 Spread [Loss]
If we needed any more evidence that Sunday was a shocking day across the league, look no further than the San Diego/Arizona game. Evenly matched to start, momentum swung in the second after Nate Davis left the game with a reported rib injury. But San Diego adjusted their plan of attack with Rudy Johnson filling in, employing a rarely-used run first attack which completely took the Rattlers off-guard. The Strike Force would go on to slice a rattled Arizona defense to the tune of over 150 rushing yards, and a late pick-six by Justic’e King turned out to be the knockout punch. San Diego finally breaks the seal on the Rattlers, beating Arizona for the very first time, 55-45.
A fast start to the week ultimately got stalled by a surprising Sunday evening, resulting in an even three wins and three losses on our bets for Week 5. That brings our overall record to 12-13 through the season’s first 25 games; not awful considering how bumpy these early-season starts can typically be. On the financial side, we worked with a $60 budget for the week, which the flat method turned into $57.27, for a slight net loss of $2.73. Meanwhile, the weighted method took back $61.09 and a net gain of $1.09. For year-to-date result, it is practically back to a deadlock between the two methods, with the flat method (-$20.49) and weighted method (-$20.40) separated by the slimmest of margins, each hovering around an ROI of -8.2%.
The Three-Leg Parlay of the Week fell short by one leg for the third time in four attempts, bringing about another frustrating ending to what was a solid attempt. After nailing Vegas moneyline on Friday, Sunday’s opening contest between Tulsa and Sioux Falls toppled the wager. Our selection of Sioux Falls -1.5 crumbled upon Tulsa’s fantastic effort, in which the Oilers outright won 56-40. At that point, not even a Bay Area 44-31 win over Tucson (we had BAY -7) could save the parlay. If there’s any good news to these underwhelming results, we’ve collectively gotten more legs correct (seven) than incorrect (five), so eventually one week will come where all three turn up correct in a week. Regression to the mean, I tell ya! Nonetheless, we are still searching for our first parlay win after four attempts, as the net loss for YTD parlays increases to $40.
Week 6 officially brings the 2024 IFL season into full swing, with all 16 teams participating in the same week for the first time this season. One game apiece on Thursday and Friday will be followed by the remaining six games to take place on Saturday night (Hexa-Box incoming!). Add them all up, and that is eight games we get to analyze and predict this week! The vast slate offers a solid shot at recording five wins in a week, something we only did once last season, and that will be the mark required for a true winning week. Can we make it there with some shrewd selections? Could 4/20 bring about our new “high” mark for the season so far? Let’s look at the lines!
Thursday 4/18, 7:30 PM ET
Tucson (-4.5) @ San Antonio
Over/Under 104.5
Moneyline: TUC -180, SA +150
All eyes league-wide are set on some IFL TNF, with the Sugar Skulls at 1-2 attempting to get back in the win column against the San Antonio Gunslingers, who themselves are seeking their first IFL victory. This has the feel of a “must-win” game for both squads, considering how loaded the Western Conference looks at the moment (three teams at 3-0 top the table). Both teams lie above league-average in point scoring and are also the worst two teams in points against per ten possessions, with the Gunslingers in particular surrendering points hand over fist. Expect the pace of the game to be as frantic as we’ll see all season long, and both teams reaching 50 is certainly not a stretch. San Antonio’s defense will eventually come around – at least to the point where they are not handing touchdowns out on every possession – but a matchup against a hungry Mylik Mitchell probably won’t yield that significant of an improvement on that front. Tucson has also given up 54, 49, and 44 points in their three games to date, while San Antonio has allowed 69, 57, and 66. An example of “Play San Antonio Over until proven otherwise”, as SA is 3-0 to the Over thus far.
The Pick: OVER 104.5, $7 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Sugar Skulls 56 – Gunslingers 53
LINE CHANGE: The O/U for this game remains at 104.5 after it momentarily increased to 106.5 Thursday afternoon. DraftKings reports 75% of bets are on the Over. Moneyline has changed to TUC -166, SA +140. All changes effective as of 4/18 at 6:55pm ET
Friday 4/19, 7:05 PM ET
Sioux Falls @ Green Bay (-7)
Over/Under 81.5
Moneyline: SXF +215, GB -265
A classic battle on tap for Friday night in Green Bay, with the host Blizzard challenging the Sioux Falls Storm, who are currently 0-3 and need a win badly to stop the bleeding and get their season back on track. The Blizzard have spent the first part of their season establishing what has been among the stingiest defensive units in the league, holding Quad City and Iowa to 24 points each and giving Massachusetts fits before a furious Pirates comeback ruined their season opener. Most of Sioux Falls’ production on offense in their first few games has been the result of playing in catch-up mode, a formula that is doubtful to bring about the result they want at Resch Center. Green Bay has clearly embraced the roughshod, grueling type of game, basically the antithesis of San Antonio. And if that holds true on Friday, the Storm could get frozen in place. Great number here as well for the home team, laying just a touchdown where my model predicts a high chance of a double-digit GB victory. Back the Blizzard to record another convincing win.
The Pick: Green Bay -7 Spread. $12 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Blizzard 47 – Storm 33
Saturday 4/20, 7:05 PM ET
Vegas (-10.5) @ Jacksonville
Over/Under 83.5
Moneyline: <NONE>
We blaze through the six-game Saturday slate, beginning with the Sharks hosting a grudge match against the Knight Hawks, against whom they suffered a 39-33 defeat on March 31st. Jacksonville attempts to shake off a disappointing 0-3 start, with all three losses against undefeated squads (MASS, VGS, BAY), while Vegas rolls the dice in hopes of extending their season-starting win streak to four games. They’ve seemingly hit the jackpot with the Ja’rome Johnson signing, as he’s got the Knight Hawk offense soaring to new heights, including hanging a 66-spot on the Gunslingers last time out. Jacksonville, meanwhile, has scored the fewest points per game (26.0 ppg) thus far, maxing out at 33 in the aforementioned loss at “Lee’s Family Forum” in Henderson. Knight Hawks defense is the big wild card here; if they can continue to cause fits for the Sharks, the game holds the possibility of getting lopsided quickly. Lay it with the high-flying Hawks on the road.
The Pick: Vegas -10.5 Spread, $8 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Knight Hawks 46 – Sharks 35
Saturday 4/20, 8:05 PM ET
Arizona (-7) @ Iowa
Over/Under 81.5
Moneyline: ARI -278, IOWA +225
The Barnstormers will be the last team in the IFL to play their home opener this week, and they’re hoping the change of scenery to the friendly confines of Wells Fargo Arena can provide a spark, as they take on the Arizona Rattlers, who are suddenly 1-3 and firmly behind the eight-ball as far as the standings are concerned. Arizona’s defense finds itself in a potential get-right spot against an Iowa offense that must decide who to start at quarterback between the experienced but inefficient D.J. Peterson and rookie Kyle King. The Rattler offense, though not necessarily as explosive with Lorenzo Brown at the helm, has remained solid, with at least 40 points in all four of their games so far. That consistency should serve them well against a Barnstormers squad with more questions than answers at this point. Not exactly sure how they’re only being given seven here; though their smallest margin of defeat was eight at Tulsa. I’ve been burned twice already on Arizona spread bets, but even this struggling version of the Rattlers looks better than does Iowa. Don’t let recent results skew your view, back the favorite here with confidence.
The Pick: Arizona -7 Spread, $8 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Rattlers 47 – Barnstormers 39
LINE CHANGE: O/U for this game has increased to 83.5, effective 4/20 at 7:05pm ET.
Saturday 4/20, 8:05 PM ET
Frisco (-7) @ Tulsa
Over/Under 85.5
Moneyline: FRI -270, TUL +220
This will be edition number four of “The Red River Rumble”, a very unique series in which the Fighters are 3-0 straight up, yet the Oilers have covered the spread on all three occasions. This will be a tough initial road test for the Fighters after having spent their first three games at Frisco. And Tulsa’s riding a high, sitting above .500 for the first time ever, with a chance to make a deafening statement against their local rivals in front of their home fans. Both teams carry elite upside on both ends of the ball, and the winner could very well be whoever can make the opposition flinch first. In what projects as a physical bout that could go the distance, there’s great value here in taking the points with the Oilers at a full touchdown. Some decent value in the moneyline as well for those who are seeking a higher-paying gamble, not to mention the game will be played on “Country Cannabis Field” on 4/20. The cosmos couldn’t have aligned any better for a self-fulfilling prophecy!
The Pick: Tulsa +7 Spread, $11 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Fighters 43 – Oilers 38
Saturday 4/20, 8:05 PM ET
Massachusetts (-9.5) @ Quad City
Over/Under 85.5
Moneyline: MASS -355, QC +280
The Pirates got the dream start to their season, logging wins in each of their first four in advance of a season-long three game road trip, which begins in Moline on Saturday. If you’ve read this series in any capacity dating back to last season, you probably know where I’m headed with this analysis. This has everything to do with the Pirates being away from home, which has been a killer for them, as evidenced by their staggering 0-10 ATS mark in all road games dating back to the start of 2023. Quad City is off to a rough 1-2 start, but despite the quarterback decision they’ll have to make between Judd Erickson and Mike Irwin, should be the beneficiary of the home-turf equalizer. The pregame leadup to this one feels awfully similar to last July’s Pirates/Wranglers outing, in which I correctly predicted NAZ for the outright win. In any event, it’s hard to steer away form a pick that’s proven to be even more reliable than “Christian McCaffrey Anytime TD”. Take the points with the Steamwheelers.
The Pick: Quad City +9.5 Spread, $15 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Pirates 41 – Steamwheelers 38
LINE CHANGE: Spread has changed to MASS -10, and moneyline bets are now off the table. Changes effective as of 4/20 at 7:05pm ET.
Saturday 4/20, 9:05 PM ET
San Diego @ Bay Area (-9)
Over/Under 90.5
Moneyline: SD +275, BAY -345
A no-doubt headliner for “Game of the Week”, this will be the first of four meetings on the season between the Strike Force and Panthers, both of whom enter Week 6 without a loss. Though still early, it seems like destiny will call for a fifth meeting to take place in the postseason. San Diego, as the surprising upstart, will vie for a second consecutive road upset against a Panthers team on an eight-game winning streak dating back to last season. Not even a rib injury to Nate Davis could silence the Strike Force last week, with Rudy Johnson orchestrating an unstoppable ground attack which pummeled the Rattlers in Glendale last Sunday. He’ll be challenged thoroughly by a Panthers defense that halted fellow dual-threat signal-caller Mylik Mitchell to just 31 points last week. I’ll actually be going against the grain of my model for this pick, in search of my first correct plus-odds upset pick of the season. San Diego has been the most profitable moneyline team in the IFL thus far (nearly 100% ROI), giving me confidence in betting them outright in this spot.
The Pick: San Diego +275 Moneyline, $7 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Panthers 49 – Strike Force 43
Saturday 4/20, 9:05 PM ET
Duke City @ Northern Arizona (-10.5)
Over/Under 90.5
Moneyline: <NONE>
Last game on the slate is an old-fashioned Prescott Valley showdown, with the Wranglers at 2-1 hosting the Duke City Gladiators who are one of five winless teams left in the league. Off the bye, Duke City has been perhaps the most turnover-prone team in the league, so we’ll have to see if an extra handful of days of rest and preparation helps quell that trend. Meanwhile, the Wranglers have found success using a far different formula than we’ve seen from them the past couple seasons, with a potent offense (6th in pts/10poss) to go along with an uncharacteristically leaky defense (12th in pts allowed/10poss) so far. Both offenses should flourish, provided that the Gladiators can take adequate care of the football, and if that turns out to be the story of the game, the teams could push for over 100 total points. Play Duke City/NAZ “Over”.
The Pick: OVER 90.5, $12 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Wranglers 54 – Gladiators 42
Recommended Three-Leg Parlay of the Week:
Last week’s attempt unfortunately got smoked by a rare sight: a favorite that was unable to cover (or outright win, for that matter) as Tulsa calmed the Storm in Sioux Falls last week. We’re still shooting for something with minimum odds of +400, and with eight games to choose from, our options are plentiful to construct this treble. I hold out hope that this three-legger can be our first to make it to the cage:
1st leg: Tucson @ San Antonio – Sugar Skulls -4.5 Spread (-110)
2nd leg: Sioux Falls @ Green Bay – Blizzard Moneyline (-265)
3rd leg: Frisco @ Tulsa – UNDER 85.5 (-110)
Total Odds: +401 [$10.00 wager, Max Payout $50.19]
Here’s a look as well at the Futures market, for anyone seeking to predict the winner of the 2024 IFL Championship Game (August 17th) well in advance! Odds decreases from last week will be indicated in red, and increases in green.
Bay Area Panthers: +300
Frisco Fighters: +350
Massachusetts Pirates: +400
Vegas Knight Hawks: +550
San Diego Strike Force: +650
Arizona Rattlers: +700
Tucson Sugar Skulls: +1500
Northern Arizona Wranglers: +1500
Green Bay Blizzard: +1600
Quad City Steamwheelers: +2200
Tulsa Oilers: +2800
Sioux Falls Storm: +3000
San Antonio Gunslingers: +3500
Jacksonville Sharks: +4000
Duke City Gladiators: +4000
Iowa Barnstormers: +5000
Don’t forget to tune in later this evening for my video coverage of Wager Wednesday, which can be found here. Again, I’ll be going live at around 10pm ET/7pm PT, so swing by if you have the chance!
Good luck to all you bettors out there; and let’s print out the big bucks!!
Welcome to Volume XXVI of my “Wager Wednesday” bit, in which I examine the current landscape of the upcoming week’s games, based on lines and odds from DraftKings Sportsbook (unless otherwise stated). As an advocate of accountability, I will recap my results - whether genius or moronic - from the prior week as well. With that, let's see how my picks from last week turned out:
• IOWA @ MASS – MASS -14.5 Spread [$19.09 flat win, $21.00 weighted win]
It was the usual home dominance from the Pirates – along with the familiar starting struggles of the Barnstormers – that headlined Friday’s early window game. For the second straight week, Iowa’s offense could not register a first half touchdown (their lone score was a kickoff return), and this time it resulted in the benching of D.J. Peterson in favor of Kyle King. The Pirates did throw a wrench into this wager, making the decision to pull Alejandro Bennifield after three sensational quarters, but Connor Degenhardt captained the ship well and helped Massachusetts hold the victory margin above two touchdowns. The Pirates become the first IFL team to four wins – and also the first double-digit favorite to cover this season – with a brilliant 54-29 showing.
• SA @ VGS – UNDER 102.5 [Loss]
Note to self: Anytime San Antonio plays a game, bet the Over. Through three games, it’s evident that the Gunslingers are the Indiana Pacers of the IFL: a team that can score on command, and whose defense would make a turnstile blush. The Knight Hawks had nine possessions on the evening, and all nine wound up as touchdowns. Meanwhile, San Antonio’s offense was held out three times – most importantly on a late fourth quarter drive when the score was 57-44. Despite 36 first quarter points, this bet actually could have somehow gone our way. With under a minute to go, Vegas could have earned a first down rather than a touchdown to run the rest of the clock out after the aforementioned defensive stand. Instead, we got a complete defensive breakdown on third down resulting in a 36-yard touchdown pass to a wide open Caleb Holley, cooking both the Guns and Over bettors alike. But it’s the dream end for the Knight Hawks, who remain perfect at 3-0 with the 66-44 shootout triumph, with the 110 total points translating into a loss for the Under.
• QC @ FRI – FRI -11.5 Spread [$19.09 flat win, $24.82 weighted win]
Speaking of offensive efficiency, Saturday night saw a glimpse of the sky-high ceiling of the Frisco Fighters, who went wire-to-wire against the Quad City Steamwheelers, an effort keyed by Frisco scoring a touchdown on every possession except one. Strangely, it was that one empty possession which took place in the fourth quarter that put this bet in a bit of jeopardy, with a feisty Quad City effort getting them to within ten points. It came down to effectively the final play of the game, a fourth and inches which T.J. Edwards easily converted with six seconds to go, bringing sighs of relief to both Frisco spread bettors and over bettors. Edwards’s exclamation point pumped the final score to 54-37 Fighters, who advance to a spotless 3-0 mark in 2024.
• TUL @ SXF – OVER 77.5 [$19.09 flat win, $15.27 weighted win]
A surprising Sunday evening started in Sioux Falls, where the Oilers stormed into Denny Sanford Premier Center and put together arguably their strongest 60-minute game as a franchise. Daniel Smith and the Oiler offense were rolling all evening, converting touchdowns on drives where they had trouble finishing in earlier games, while the defense set the tone in allowing just 14 Sioux Falls points at the half. The end result saw the Storm playing catch-up the rest of the way, essentially making this the most sweat-free betting win so far this season. In a game set at 77.5 points, the Oilers and Storm cleared the mark by a mile, with Tulsa taking the win 56-40, for 96 total points.
• BAY @ TUC – OVER 95.5 [Loss]
A meeting between two of the hottest teams in the IFL, both equipped with high-end offenses, appeared to be shaping up as a shootout early on. The first quarter saw 24 points scored, and the second quarter clocked in with… <checks notes>… zero. Huh. Unfortunately for Over backers, this is the type of sequence we are fearful of, and what we saw on a few instances a year ago. More than 15 minutes of back and forth action with no resulting points is almost sure to ground any hopes of winning an over bet, much less one set in the mid-90’s. In the end, the Panthers were able to silence the hot start of Skulls QB Mylik Mitchell, limiting his unit to 31 points for the entire night. Bay Area continues its title defense in perfect form, putting the stops on the Sugar Skulls 44-31, for a game total of 75 points.
• SD @ ARI – ARI -2.5 Spread [Loss]
If we needed any more evidence that Sunday was a shocking day across the league, look no further than the San Diego/Arizona game. Evenly matched to start, momentum swung in the second after Nate Davis left the game with a reported rib injury. But San Diego adjusted their plan of attack with Rudy Johnson filling in, employing a rarely-used run first attack which completely took the Rattlers off-guard. The Strike Force would go on to slice a rattled Arizona defense to the tune of over 150 rushing yards, and a late pick-six by Justic’e King turned out to be the knockout punch. San Diego finally breaks the seal on the Rattlers, beating Arizona for the very first time, 55-45.
A fast start to the week ultimately got stalled by a surprising Sunday evening, resulting in an even three wins and three losses on our bets for Week 5. That brings our overall record to 12-13 through the season’s first 25 games; not awful considering how bumpy these early-season starts can typically be. On the financial side, we worked with a $60 budget for the week, which the flat method turned into $57.27, for a slight net loss of $2.73. Meanwhile, the weighted method took back $61.09 and a net gain of $1.09. For year-to-date result, it is practically back to a deadlock between the two methods, with the flat method (-$20.49) and weighted method (-$20.40) separated by the slimmest of margins, each hovering around an ROI of -8.2%.
The Three-Leg Parlay of the Week fell short by one leg for the third time in four attempts, bringing about another frustrating ending to what was a solid attempt. After nailing Vegas moneyline on Friday, Sunday’s opening contest between Tulsa and Sioux Falls toppled the wager. Our selection of Sioux Falls -1.5 crumbled upon Tulsa’s fantastic effort, in which the Oilers outright won 56-40. At that point, not even a Bay Area 44-31 win over Tucson (we had BAY -7) could save the parlay. If there’s any good news to these underwhelming results, we’ve collectively gotten more legs correct (seven) than incorrect (five), so eventually one week will come where all three turn up correct in a week. Regression to the mean, I tell ya! Nonetheless, we are still searching for our first parlay win after four attempts, as the net loss for YTD parlays increases to $40.
Week 6 officially brings the 2024 IFL season into full swing, with all 16 teams participating in the same week for the first time this season. One game apiece on Thursday and Friday will be followed by the remaining six games to take place on Saturday night (Hexa-Box incoming!). Add them all up, and that is eight games we get to analyze and predict this week! The vast slate offers a solid shot at recording five wins in a week, something we only did once last season, and that will be the mark required for a true winning week. Can we make it there with some shrewd selections? Could 4/20 bring about our new “high” mark for the season so far? Let’s look at the lines!
Thursday 4/18, 7:30 PM ET
Tucson (-4.5) @ San Antonio
Over/Under 104.5
Moneyline: TUC -180, SA +150
All eyes league-wide are set on some IFL TNF, with the Sugar Skulls at 1-2 attempting to get back in the win column against the San Antonio Gunslingers, who themselves are seeking their first IFL victory. This has the feel of a “must-win” game for both squads, considering how loaded the Western Conference looks at the moment (three teams at 3-0 top the table). Both teams lie above league-average in point scoring and are also the worst two teams in points against per ten possessions, with the Gunslingers in particular surrendering points hand over fist. Expect the pace of the game to be as frantic as we’ll see all season long, and both teams reaching 50 is certainly not a stretch. San Antonio’s defense will eventually come around – at least to the point where they are not handing touchdowns out on every possession – but a matchup against a hungry Mylik Mitchell probably won’t yield that significant of an improvement on that front. Tucson has also given up 54, 49, and 44 points in their three games to date, while San Antonio has allowed 69, 57, and 66. An example of “Play San Antonio Over until proven otherwise”, as SA is 3-0 to the Over thus far.
The Pick: OVER 104.5, $7 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Sugar Skulls 56 – Gunslingers 53
LINE CHANGE: The O/U for this game remains at 104.5 after it momentarily increased to 106.5 Thursday afternoon. DraftKings reports 75% of bets are on the Over. Moneyline has changed to TUC -166, SA +140. All changes effective as of 4/18 at 6:55pm ET
Friday 4/19, 7:05 PM ET
Sioux Falls @ Green Bay (-7)
Over/Under 81.5
Moneyline: SXF +215, GB -265
A classic battle on tap for Friday night in Green Bay, with the host Blizzard challenging the Sioux Falls Storm, who are currently 0-3 and need a win badly to stop the bleeding and get their season back on track. The Blizzard have spent the first part of their season establishing what has been among the stingiest defensive units in the league, holding Quad City and Iowa to 24 points each and giving Massachusetts fits before a furious Pirates comeback ruined their season opener. Most of Sioux Falls’ production on offense in their first few games has been the result of playing in catch-up mode, a formula that is doubtful to bring about the result they want at Resch Center. Green Bay has clearly embraced the roughshod, grueling type of game, basically the antithesis of San Antonio. And if that holds true on Friday, the Storm could get frozen in place. Great number here as well for the home team, laying just a touchdown where my model predicts a high chance of a double-digit GB victory. Back the Blizzard to record another convincing win.
The Pick: Green Bay -7 Spread. $12 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Blizzard 47 – Storm 33
Saturday 4/20, 7:05 PM ET
Vegas (-10.5) @ Jacksonville
Over/Under 83.5
Moneyline: <NONE>
We blaze through the six-game Saturday slate, beginning with the Sharks hosting a grudge match against the Knight Hawks, against whom they suffered a 39-33 defeat on March 31st. Jacksonville attempts to shake off a disappointing 0-3 start, with all three losses against undefeated squads (MASS, VGS, BAY), while Vegas rolls the dice in hopes of extending their season-starting win streak to four games. They’ve seemingly hit the jackpot with the Ja’rome Johnson signing, as he’s got the Knight Hawk offense soaring to new heights, including hanging a 66-spot on the Gunslingers last time out. Jacksonville, meanwhile, has scored the fewest points per game (26.0 ppg) thus far, maxing out at 33 in the aforementioned loss at “Lee’s Family Forum” in Henderson. Knight Hawks defense is the big wild card here; if they can continue to cause fits for the Sharks, the game holds the possibility of getting lopsided quickly. Lay it with the high-flying Hawks on the road.
The Pick: Vegas -10.5 Spread, $8 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Knight Hawks 46 – Sharks 35
Saturday 4/20, 8:05 PM ET
Arizona (-7) @ Iowa
Over/Under 81.5
Moneyline: ARI -278, IOWA +225
The Barnstormers will be the last team in the IFL to play their home opener this week, and they’re hoping the change of scenery to the friendly confines of Wells Fargo Arena can provide a spark, as they take on the Arizona Rattlers, who are suddenly 1-3 and firmly behind the eight-ball as far as the standings are concerned. Arizona’s defense finds itself in a potential get-right spot against an Iowa offense that must decide who to start at quarterback between the experienced but inefficient D.J. Peterson and rookie Kyle King. The Rattler offense, though not necessarily as explosive with Lorenzo Brown at the helm, has remained solid, with at least 40 points in all four of their games so far. That consistency should serve them well against a Barnstormers squad with more questions than answers at this point. Not exactly sure how they’re only being given seven here; though their smallest margin of defeat was eight at Tulsa. I’ve been burned twice already on Arizona spread bets, but even this struggling version of the Rattlers looks better than does Iowa. Don’t let recent results skew your view, back the favorite here with confidence.
The Pick: Arizona -7 Spread, $8 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Rattlers 47 – Barnstormers 39
LINE CHANGE: O/U for this game has increased to 83.5, effective 4/20 at 7:05pm ET.
Saturday 4/20, 8:05 PM ET
Frisco (-7) @ Tulsa
Over/Under 85.5
Moneyline: FRI -270, TUL +220
This will be edition number four of “The Red River Rumble”, a very unique series in which the Fighters are 3-0 straight up, yet the Oilers have covered the spread on all three occasions. This will be a tough initial road test for the Fighters after having spent their first three games at Frisco. And Tulsa’s riding a high, sitting above .500 for the first time ever, with a chance to make a deafening statement against their local rivals in front of their home fans. Both teams carry elite upside on both ends of the ball, and the winner could very well be whoever can make the opposition flinch first. In what projects as a physical bout that could go the distance, there’s great value here in taking the points with the Oilers at a full touchdown. Some decent value in the moneyline as well for those who are seeking a higher-paying gamble, not to mention the game will be played on “Country Cannabis Field” on 4/20. The cosmos couldn’t have aligned any better for a self-fulfilling prophecy!
The Pick: Tulsa +7 Spread, $11 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Fighters 43 – Oilers 38
Saturday 4/20, 8:05 PM ET
Massachusetts (-9.5) @ Quad City
Over/Under 85.5
Moneyline: MASS -355, QC +280
The Pirates got the dream start to their season, logging wins in each of their first four in advance of a season-long three game road trip, which begins in Moline on Saturday. If you’ve read this series in any capacity dating back to last season, you probably know where I’m headed with this analysis. This has everything to do with the Pirates being away from home, which has been a killer for them, as evidenced by their staggering 0-10 ATS mark in all road games dating back to the start of 2023. Quad City is off to a rough 1-2 start, but despite the quarterback decision they’ll have to make between Judd Erickson and Mike Irwin, should be the beneficiary of the home-turf equalizer. The pregame leadup to this one feels awfully similar to last July’s Pirates/Wranglers outing, in which I correctly predicted NAZ for the outright win. In any event, it’s hard to steer away form a pick that’s proven to be even more reliable than “Christian McCaffrey Anytime TD”. Take the points with the Steamwheelers.
The Pick: Quad City +9.5 Spread, $15 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Pirates 41 – Steamwheelers 38
LINE CHANGE: Spread has changed to MASS -10, and moneyline bets are now off the table. Changes effective as of 4/20 at 7:05pm ET.
Saturday 4/20, 9:05 PM ET
San Diego @ Bay Area (-9)
Over/Under 90.5
Moneyline: SD +275, BAY -345
A no-doubt headliner for “Game of the Week”, this will be the first of four meetings on the season between the Strike Force and Panthers, both of whom enter Week 6 without a loss. Though still early, it seems like destiny will call for a fifth meeting to take place in the postseason. San Diego, as the surprising upstart, will vie for a second consecutive road upset against a Panthers team on an eight-game winning streak dating back to last season. Not even a rib injury to Nate Davis could silence the Strike Force last week, with Rudy Johnson orchestrating an unstoppable ground attack which pummeled the Rattlers in Glendale last Sunday. He’ll be challenged thoroughly by a Panthers defense that halted fellow dual-threat signal-caller Mylik Mitchell to just 31 points last week. I’ll actually be going against the grain of my model for this pick, in search of my first correct plus-odds upset pick of the season. San Diego has been the most profitable moneyline team in the IFL thus far (nearly 100% ROI), giving me confidence in betting them outright in this spot.
The Pick: San Diego +275 Moneyline, $7 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Panthers 49 – Strike Force 43
Saturday 4/20, 9:05 PM ET
Duke City @ Northern Arizona (-10.5)
Over/Under 90.5
Moneyline: <NONE>
Last game on the slate is an old-fashioned Prescott Valley showdown, with the Wranglers at 2-1 hosting the Duke City Gladiators who are one of five winless teams left in the league. Off the bye, Duke City has been perhaps the most turnover-prone team in the league, so we’ll have to see if an extra handful of days of rest and preparation helps quell that trend. Meanwhile, the Wranglers have found success using a far different formula than we’ve seen from them the past couple seasons, with a potent offense (6th in pts/10poss) to go along with an uncharacteristically leaky defense (12th in pts allowed/10poss) so far. Both offenses should flourish, provided that the Gladiators can take adequate care of the football, and if that turns out to be the story of the game, the teams could push for over 100 total points. Play Duke City/NAZ “Over”.
The Pick: OVER 90.5, $12 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Wranglers 54 – Gladiators 42
Recommended Three-Leg Parlay of the Week:
Last week’s attempt unfortunately got smoked by a rare sight: a favorite that was unable to cover (or outright win, for that matter) as Tulsa calmed the Storm in Sioux Falls last week. We’re still shooting for something with minimum odds of +400, and with eight games to choose from, our options are plentiful to construct this treble. I hold out hope that this three-legger can be our first to make it to the cage:
1st leg: Tucson @ San Antonio – Sugar Skulls -4.5 Spread (-110)
2nd leg: Sioux Falls @ Green Bay – Blizzard Moneyline (-265)
3rd leg: Frisco @ Tulsa – UNDER 85.5 (-110)
Total Odds: +401 [$10.00 wager, Max Payout $50.19]
Here’s a look as well at the Futures market, for anyone seeking to predict the winner of the 2024 IFL Championship Game (August 17th) well in advance! Odds decreases from last week will be indicated in red, and increases in green.
Bay Area Panthers: +300
Frisco Fighters: +350
Massachusetts Pirates: +400
Vegas Knight Hawks: +550
San Diego Strike Force: +650
Arizona Rattlers: +700
Tucson Sugar Skulls: +1500
Northern Arizona Wranglers: +1500
Green Bay Blizzard: +1600
Quad City Steamwheelers: +2200
Tulsa Oilers: +2800
Sioux Falls Storm: +3000
San Antonio Gunslingers: +3500
Jacksonville Sharks: +4000
Duke City Gladiators: +4000
Iowa Barnstormers: +5000
Don’t forget to tune in later this evening for my video coverage of Wager Wednesday, which can be found here. Again, I’ll be going live at around 10pm ET/7pm PT, so swing by if you have the chance!
Good luck to all you bettors out there; and let’s print out the big bucks!!
