Post by alecs on Mar 27, 2024 8:53:17 GMT -8
Happy Wednesday, IFL Fans!
Welcome to Volume XXIII of my “Wager Wednesday” bit, in which I examine the current landscape of the upcoming week’s games, based on lines and odds from DraftKings Sportsbook (unless otherwise stated). As an advocate of accountability, I will recap my results - whether genius or moronic - from the prior week as well. With that, let's see how my picks from last week turned out:
• SXF @ QC – UNDER 91.5 [$19.09 flat win, $15.27 weighted win]
Another week-opening win, with the Storm and Steamwheelers engaging in a defensive duel that saw just 25 total points in the first half. That should have set the stage for a surefire no-sweat victory, but sure enough, the Storm rallied with several clutch plays and wound up forcing overtime. And the IFL’s overtime format, in theory, could add points upon points until a winner is declared, raising genuine concern for Under backers. Fortunately for our wager here, we needed just one iteration of the OT to declare a winner, with Quad City scoring on their drive, and taking the ball away on the drive of Sioux Falls by way of interception. Quad City won the game 38-32, with just 70 total points scored. Even in going beyond 60 minutes of regulation, the game was still three full touchdowns below the 91.5 mark.
• TUL @ FRI – FRI -16.5 Spread [Loss]
Definitely the more surprising of the two games on Friday evening, at least based on how the script of the game unfolded. The Oilers loudly put the IFL world on notice with how they started this game, building a double-digit lead at halftime, all while limiting Frisco to just seven points in the opening half. That lead increased to 15 points by the time the fourth quarter started – and that’s when old habits kicked in for the Oilers. Frisco managed to get the tying score late in regulation to give fans a second overtime game of the evening. After Frisco intercepted Tulsa on the first OT possession, T.J. Edwards capped the game with a winning touchdown run, his fourth of the evening. A sigh of relief for Fighters fans, and unpleasant déjà vu for Oilers faithful, with the Fighters completing the 31-25 comeback win. Unfortunately, we needed a win of at least 17 points to cover the spread, and Frisco was nowhere near that margin at any point in this game.
• JAX @ MASS – JAX +142 Moneyline [Loss]
The first attempt at plus-odds “Moneyline Magic” comes up short, with the Sharks having a difficult time navigating through the waters along the Merrimack River in their maiden voyage of IFL play. The Pirates played an imposing brand of defense on Saturday night, causing multiple takeaways and turnovers on downs, and only twice did a Sharks offensive player find the endzone (their other touchdown was a pick-six at the first half gun). It wasn’t the most polished effort we’ve seen from the Pirates, either, but Alejandro Bennifield put together another game with enough timely plays, especially some third down conversions late in the game to run the clock out. In a stifling game that looked more like a mid-January MAAC basketball game than a typical IFL game, the Pirates emerged with the win by a score of 26-21, marking their first victory over Jacksonville since 2018. Bad Beat for anyone out there who took the Over at 98.5 points, as this game failed to get even halfway there!
• IOWA @ GB – GB -9.5 Spread [$19.09 flat win, $17.18 weighted win]
Talk about an absolute grind of a win to salvage Saturday night! Iowa played with vigor in this one, with the return of Darius-James Peterson bringing every bit of energy as advertised for the Barnstormers. Iowa’s lead actually hit double-digits well into the third quarter, so an upset win appeared to be firmly in the cards. But a Green Bay rally got started with a 42-yard kick return touchdown from Jayln Cagle, and after being on the wrong end of a 22-0 game-closing run last week, the Blizzard ended this week’s game scoring the final 21 points of the game. A last-ditch effort by the Barnstormers for a backdoor cover touchdown sailed over the endzone, preserving the Blizzard’s 11-point margin of victory. Green Bay gets into the win column thanks to the 35-24 home win over the Barnstormers.
• VGS @ ARI – UNDER 96.5 [$19.09 flat win, $15.27 weighted win]
Entering Sunday’s game, the Under had been perfect through the first six games of the season, and after a modest first half that saw just 39 total points, the game was firmly on pace to extend that to a 7-0 record. The third quarter definitely made things interesting, with 33 points scored in the frame to bring the total to 72 and well within reach of the implied 96.5. Two Rattlers turnovers late in the game sapped enough momentum from the game for Under bettors to breathe easier, but they weren’t through the woods yet. Inside the one-minute warning, a go-ahead touchdown put the Rattlers up 43-42, and the decision to go for two could have made the game 45-42, thus creating the chance of a tying field goal by the Knight Hawks, which would have forced overtime and very likely would have been the death sentence to cook the wager. Instead, the Rattlers two point conversion missed – arguably the defining play to clinch the bet – and the ensuing game-winning field goal by Vegas brought the score to a 45-43 final, for 88 points. In their victory, the Knight Hawks became the first underdog to log an outright win in the 2024 season – they were 13.5 point underdogs prior to kickoff!
• SD @ DUKE – SD -105 Moneyline [$19.52 flat win, $23.43 weighted win]
The hype of “Monday Night Football” quickly transpired into a maddening grind, both for the teams at play and the fans who tuned in to watch from around the world. Really only one word can adequately describe this game: Choppy. In just about every sense of the word, from the play on the field to the quality of the stream (at least in the first quarter), this was hands down among the most disjointed IFL game in recent memory. Both teams struggled to get any sort of momentum going offensively, with fourth down stops and costly turnovers and penalties ruling the day, particularly in the fourth quarter. Eventually, the Strike Force would possess the ball down by a point inside the one-minute warning, needing a score to get back ahead. They got it with a Travon Van touchdown run, and a quick interception by the Strike Force brought a merciful end to this one. San Diego grabs the “upset” win on the road, 32-26, to open their 2024 season.
In just about the ugliest way possible, we have our first winning week of 2024! Four wins compared to just two losses for Week 2, with the pivotal winners coming on Sunday and Monday night to lift us to that goal! With a flat $10 wagered on each game ($60 total), our wagers from last week returned $76.79, for a net gain of $16.79. In contrast, the weighted method outlined last week brough back $71.15, for a net gain of $11.15 for Week 2. Overall this season, the flat method stands at $15.88 of net gain (for ROI of roughly 20%), while the weighted method resulted in $4.51 of net gain (and ROI of 5.6%). Thus far, the flat method has established itself as the more profitable of the two options, but there is still plenty of time for larger weighted bets to come up green in the future.
The first Three-Leg Parlay of 2024 met a heartbreaking demise. After nailing the first two legs (Quad City Moneyline and JAX/MASS Under 98.5), we needed a Rattler cover at -13.5 points to secure the bag, worth about $60 if successful. Instead, we got the first upset of 2024, with Vegas winning on the final play of the game against the Rattlers, thus covering as underdogs. In fact, the Rattlers never even led by double-digits at any point in the game, so the parlay stood no chance to cross the finish line in hindsight. Tough way to lose out, but we’ll make a solid go at it again this week! That kicks off our weekly parlay series with an 0-1 record, and net loss of $10.
Week 3 gives us a schedule similar to last week’s, with six games contested over four days Friday through Monday. Green Bay, Iowa, Quad City, and Tulsa each have a bye this week. We will get our first peek at the three remaining teams set to open their campaigns this weekend, with the Tucson Sugar Skulls, defending champion Bay Area Panthers, and the newest entrant to the IFL, the San Antonio Gunslingers. Will we be able to match or exceed our 4-2 record from last week, and perhaps piece together a winning parlay in the process? Time to make our picks!
Friday 3/29, 7:05 PM ET
Sioux Falls @ Massachusetts (-7.5)
Over/Under 77.5
Moneyline: SXF +240, MASS -298
Storylines aplenty for Friday night’s playoff re-match, with the Pirates fiercely determined to exact revenge against a Sioux Falls squad that delivered not one, but two knockout punches to end their season on consecutive weeks in 2023. The Storm won the regular season finale, which took home-field advantage away from the Pirates and set up a re-match in the postseason a week later, and that game would feature the Storm pulling off one of the most amazing comebacks in IFL Playoff history. So, yeah, Massachusetts should come out swinging right from the opening kick. And while it’s still early, the Pirate defense is looking pretty scary again, particularly the defensive front including Julius Turner and Calvin Bundage causing all sorts of problems for Green Bay and Jacksonville. Sioux Falls will go for the upset win after nearly stealing one at Quad City a week ago, as their hearty effort fell just short in the overtime. As cliché as this sounds, a close game could be in order, with both matchups last year determined by three points each, and another meeting in 2022 decided by just one point. Sneakily, the Pirates are 0-2 ATS this season, and it’s very possible they could remain undefeated straight up, yet winless on the spread after this week is said and done. But it’s so hard to overlook this total, which appears too exaggerated of an adjustment in response to the eight-for-eight "Under" streak to start 2024. League wide, offenses are going to kick into gear eventually, and a couple short fields and/or chunk plays throughout the game could be enough to finally see an Over cash. As we saw last year on a few occasions, this is exactly the market movement that we’re looking to capitalize on. Over was 3-0 last season when set to 77.5 or below. Play Sioux Falls-Massachusetts “Over”.
The Pick: OVER 77.5, $12 weighted
Friday 3/29, 8:30 PM ET
Duke City @ Frisco (-13.5)
Over/Under 80.5
Moneyline: NONE
The Fighters remain home for this week, after requiring a 15-point fourth quarter comeback and an overtime period to take down the Oilers. They welcome in the Duke City Gladiators, who just played a toilsome game less than 48 hours ago in a close loss to San Diego. Safe to say, neither team impressed in their respective openers, so both will be hungry to bring the heat in the heart of the Lone Star State. For the Gladiators, Javin Kilgo struggled in his season debut, with just nine completions compared to three interceptions, as there is a very real chance that a QB change is made, perhaps opening the door for Taz Wilson to get the nod. As for the Fighters, even when held to just 31 points last Friday, T.J. Edwards still showed he can make big plays in bunches, with over 70 rushing yards and four touchdowns on the ground to fuel the Fighters’ rally. He should be able to easily overpower what should be a tired Gladiator defense, whom he torched for 67 points in a game last season. I’m not reading too deeply into last week’s blip on the radar; play Fighters on the points, with a very attainable 14-point margin of victory all we need.
The Pick: Frisco -13.5 Spread, $8 weighted
Saturday 3/30, 9:05 PM ET
Tucson @ Northern Arizona (-2.5)
Over/Under 79.5
Moneyline: TUC +110, NAZ -130
Saturday’s lone matchup of the evening will feature the Tucson Sugar Skulls, set to finally play their first game of the season, against a Wranglers squad fresh off a bye and staring down a shot at their first win after dropping their opener two weeks ago. These teams were bottom-two in average number of possessions per game last year, with both prioritizing a stalwart defense – offense be darned. That combination wound up seeing neither game between these two squads eclipse 70 points (31-21 NAZ, and 42-28 TUC). Games were 6-2 to the Over a season ago when set at 80.5 points or below – but it should come as no surprise that both “losses” in that stretch were Tucson/NAZ matchups. For this game, I’ll shift my focus on outright winner, where I see the most value in taking the visiting Skulls to knock off their in-state rivals. My model is giving Tucson a roughly 63% chance of victory, so it really should be the Skulls as the favorites. Last year, we played Tucson outright in their first game, which also was on the road, and it paid in spades. I’ll back them to do it again in Prescott Valley at these solid odds, plus a dime!
The Pick: Tucson +110 Moneyline, $8 weighted
LINE CHANGE: The Over/Under has increased to 81.5 from its original value of 79.5, as of Saturday 3/30 at 8:45pm ET.
Sunday 3/31, 6:05 PM ET
Arizona @ Bay Area (-1.5)
Over/Under 88.5
Moneyline: ARI -105, BAY -115
In what projects as a possible Western Conference playoff preview, Arizona will look to put last week’s disappointing home loss firmly behind them; but that task could prove to be tricky on the road against the defending champions, who by the way are well-rested and possess the advantage of having seen Arizona play in two games already this season. The Rattlers are also suddenly seeking answers at QB, with prized acquisition Dalton Sneed currently injured and Garrett Kettle having difficulty unlocking the offense’s full potential. They even had to coax Lorenzo Brown out of retirement mid-week, and he ended up playing the entire second half of the loss to Vegas. Talk about a QB carousel that Kevin Guy suddenly finds himself trying to manage. Meanwhile, the Panthers rest their hopes on Da’Quan Neal, now playing for his fourth team in as many seasons, to keep the engine running for the current title holders. And if needed, Felix Harper proved last season to be a very capable “Plan B” under center. This should be a highly entertaining game, featuring the highest implied total of the week at “only” 88.5 points (For added context, no game in Weeks 1 and 2 had a total set below 89.5 points). I’ll back the home team here and lay the point plus the hook, with the status of Sneed still up in the air putting a #RevengeGame in jeopardy.
The Pick: Bay Area -1.5 Spread, $8 weighted
Sunday 3/31, 6:05 PM ET
Jacksonville @ Vegas (-6.5)
Over/Under 80.5
Moneyline: JAX +200, VGS -245
The Sharks head west to try their luck at posting their first IFL win on Sunday night, going up against a Knight Hawks team oozing confidence after their upset at Phoenix last week. It makes for such an interesting storyline, especially for an early inter-conference game that could turn out to have significant implications as the season progresses. A win for Vegas would pump the brakes, at least temporarily, on any concerns surrounding game-to-game consistency, and would put Jacksonville in an early 0-2 hole with challenging opponents in the next few games in front of them. I actually have Jacksonville projected as the slight favorite in this one, as I believe recency bias is skewing the impact of Vegas taking down Arizona just a shade too much. If the Knight Hawks must be favored, I’d say -3.5 is the highest the spread should go. This is the game where I will be taking the points on an underdog for the first time this season; even though +200 moneyline is insanely tempting to sprinkle on. Play Jacksonville +6.5, with a very real chance at straight up victory in play.
The Pick: Jacksonville +6.5 Spread, $11 weighted
Monday 4/1, 9:05 PM ET
San Antonio @ San Diego (-2.5)
Over/Under 75.5
Moneyline: SA +105, SD -125
“Monday Night Football” once again in the IFL, and if this version is any different than last week’s brutally difficult-to-watch game, it would be a very welcome development. This time, San Diego will host the contest against the new challengers of the IFL, the San Antonio Gunslingers. The offseason of the Guns was met with rave reviews by close sources, and they entered last week with the seventh-shortest odds out of the 16 teams at winning the IFL title – without having played a single snap in this league yet – so expectations are already quite lofty. A road date against the Strike Force will serve as a solid initial measuring stick, as I’m expecting San Diego’s attack to be a lot more polished playing at home and with another week of practice under their belt. The Gunslingers are on track to treat IFL fans with a first look at quarterback Sam Castronova, who engineered a Sharks offense last year that hummed to the tune of over 60 points per game in the NAL. Simply put, there is far too much skill and upside on both these teams for the total to be this low (almost seems like an appropriate April Fools' joke if you ask me). And as mentioned before, every non Tucson/NAZ game a season ago made the over when it was set at 80.5 or below. Terrific value for a second game this week on a point total adjustment that may appear in hindsight to be a steep overreaction.
The Pick: OVER 75.5, $13 weighted
Recommended Three-Leg Parlay of the Week:
As mentioned at the top, last week’s Three-Leg Parlay fell at the infamous final leg. We’ve got a chance at redemption this week, however, and I have a lot of confidence in each of these selections coming through for us this time around, including a beefy moneyline dart throw! Here is my Parlay for Week 3:
1st leg: Sioux Falls vs. Massachusetts – Storm +7.5 Spread (-110)
2nd leg: Jacksonville vs. Vegas – Sharks ML (+200)
3rd leg: San Antonio vs. San Diego – Over 75.5 (-110)
Total Odds: +993 [$10.00 wager, Max Payout $109.33]
Here’s a look as well at the Futures market, for anyone seeking to predict the winner of the 2024 IFL Championship Game (August 17th) well in advance! Odds decreases from last week will be indicated in red, and increases in green.
Arizona Rattlers: +340
Frisco Fighters: +380
Massachusetts Pirates: +600
Bay Area Panthers: +800
Tucson Sugar Skulls: +1000
Jacksonville Sharks: +1000
San Antonio Gunslingers: +1000
Quad City Steamwheelers: +1100
Sioux Falls Storm: +1200
Vegas Knight Hawks: +1300
Northern Arizona Wranglers: +1600
San Diego Strike Force: +2000
Green Bay Blizzard: +2200
Iowa Barnstormers: +3000
Tulsa Oilers: +3500
Duke City Gladiators: +3500
Don’t forget to tune in later this evening for my video coverage of Wager Wednesday, which can be found here. Again, I’ll be going live at around 10pm ET/7pm PT, so swing by if you have the chance!
Good luck to all you bettors out there; and let’s print out the big bucks!!
Welcome to Volume XXIII of my “Wager Wednesday” bit, in which I examine the current landscape of the upcoming week’s games, based on lines and odds from DraftKings Sportsbook (unless otherwise stated). As an advocate of accountability, I will recap my results - whether genius or moronic - from the prior week as well. With that, let's see how my picks from last week turned out:
• SXF @ QC – UNDER 91.5 [$19.09 flat win, $15.27 weighted win]
Another week-opening win, with the Storm and Steamwheelers engaging in a defensive duel that saw just 25 total points in the first half. That should have set the stage for a surefire no-sweat victory, but sure enough, the Storm rallied with several clutch plays and wound up forcing overtime. And the IFL’s overtime format, in theory, could add points upon points until a winner is declared, raising genuine concern for Under backers. Fortunately for our wager here, we needed just one iteration of the OT to declare a winner, with Quad City scoring on their drive, and taking the ball away on the drive of Sioux Falls by way of interception. Quad City won the game 38-32, with just 70 total points scored. Even in going beyond 60 minutes of regulation, the game was still three full touchdowns below the 91.5 mark.
• TUL @ FRI – FRI -16.5 Spread [Loss]
Definitely the more surprising of the two games on Friday evening, at least based on how the script of the game unfolded. The Oilers loudly put the IFL world on notice with how they started this game, building a double-digit lead at halftime, all while limiting Frisco to just seven points in the opening half. That lead increased to 15 points by the time the fourth quarter started – and that’s when old habits kicked in for the Oilers. Frisco managed to get the tying score late in regulation to give fans a second overtime game of the evening. After Frisco intercepted Tulsa on the first OT possession, T.J. Edwards capped the game with a winning touchdown run, his fourth of the evening. A sigh of relief for Fighters fans, and unpleasant déjà vu for Oilers faithful, with the Fighters completing the 31-25 comeback win. Unfortunately, we needed a win of at least 17 points to cover the spread, and Frisco was nowhere near that margin at any point in this game.
• JAX @ MASS – JAX +142 Moneyline [Loss]
The first attempt at plus-odds “Moneyline Magic” comes up short, with the Sharks having a difficult time navigating through the waters along the Merrimack River in their maiden voyage of IFL play. The Pirates played an imposing brand of defense on Saturday night, causing multiple takeaways and turnovers on downs, and only twice did a Sharks offensive player find the endzone (their other touchdown was a pick-six at the first half gun). It wasn’t the most polished effort we’ve seen from the Pirates, either, but Alejandro Bennifield put together another game with enough timely plays, especially some third down conversions late in the game to run the clock out. In a stifling game that looked more like a mid-January MAAC basketball game than a typical IFL game, the Pirates emerged with the win by a score of 26-21, marking their first victory over Jacksonville since 2018. Bad Beat for anyone out there who took the Over at 98.5 points, as this game failed to get even halfway there!
• IOWA @ GB – GB -9.5 Spread [$19.09 flat win, $17.18 weighted win]
Talk about an absolute grind of a win to salvage Saturday night! Iowa played with vigor in this one, with the return of Darius-James Peterson bringing every bit of energy as advertised for the Barnstormers. Iowa’s lead actually hit double-digits well into the third quarter, so an upset win appeared to be firmly in the cards. But a Green Bay rally got started with a 42-yard kick return touchdown from Jayln Cagle, and after being on the wrong end of a 22-0 game-closing run last week, the Blizzard ended this week’s game scoring the final 21 points of the game. A last-ditch effort by the Barnstormers for a backdoor cover touchdown sailed over the endzone, preserving the Blizzard’s 11-point margin of victory. Green Bay gets into the win column thanks to the 35-24 home win over the Barnstormers.
• VGS @ ARI – UNDER 96.5 [$19.09 flat win, $15.27 weighted win]
Entering Sunday’s game, the Under had been perfect through the first six games of the season, and after a modest first half that saw just 39 total points, the game was firmly on pace to extend that to a 7-0 record. The third quarter definitely made things interesting, with 33 points scored in the frame to bring the total to 72 and well within reach of the implied 96.5. Two Rattlers turnovers late in the game sapped enough momentum from the game for Under bettors to breathe easier, but they weren’t through the woods yet. Inside the one-minute warning, a go-ahead touchdown put the Rattlers up 43-42, and the decision to go for two could have made the game 45-42, thus creating the chance of a tying field goal by the Knight Hawks, which would have forced overtime and very likely would have been the death sentence to cook the wager. Instead, the Rattlers two point conversion missed – arguably the defining play to clinch the bet – and the ensuing game-winning field goal by Vegas brought the score to a 45-43 final, for 88 points. In their victory, the Knight Hawks became the first underdog to log an outright win in the 2024 season – they were 13.5 point underdogs prior to kickoff!
• SD @ DUKE – SD -105 Moneyline [$19.52 flat win, $23.43 weighted win]
The hype of “Monday Night Football” quickly transpired into a maddening grind, both for the teams at play and the fans who tuned in to watch from around the world. Really only one word can adequately describe this game: Choppy. In just about every sense of the word, from the play on the field to the quality of the stream (at least in the first quarter), this was hands down among the most disjointed IFL game in recent memory. Both teams struggled to get any sort of momentum going offensively, with fourth down stops and costly turnovers and penalties ruling the day, particularly in the fourth quarter. Eventually, the Strike Force would possess the ball down by a point inside the one-minute warning, needing a score to get back ahead. They got it with a Travon Van touchdown run, and a quick interception by the Strike Force brought a merciful end to this one. San Diego grabs the “upset” win on the road, 32-26, to open their 2024 season.
In just about the ugliest way possible, we have our first winning week of 2024! Four wins compared to just two losses for Week 2, with the pivotal winners coming on Sunday and Monday night to lift us to that goal! With a flat $10 wagered on each game ($60 total), our wagers from last week returned $76.79, for a net gain of $16.79. In contrast, the weighted method outlined last week brough back $71.15, for a net gain of $11.15 for Week 2. Overall this season, the flat method stands at $15.88 of net gain (for ROI of roughly 20%), while the weighted method resulted in $4.51 of net gain (and ROI of 5.6%). Thus far, the flat method has established itself as the more profitable of the two options, but there is still plenty of time for larger weighted bets to come up green in the future.
The first Three-Leg Parlay of 2024 met a heartbreaking demise. After nailing the first two legs (Quad City Moneyline and JAX/MASS Under 98.5), we needed a Rattler cover at -13.5 points to secure the bag, worth about $60 if successful. Instead, we got the first upset of 2024, with Vegas winning on the final play of the game against the Rattlers, thus covering as underdogs. In fact, the Rattlers never even led by double-digits at any point in the game, so the parlay stood no chance to cross the finish line in hindsight. Tough way to lose out, but we’ll make a solid go at it again this week! That kicks off our weekly parlay series with an 0-1 record, and net loss of $10.
Week 3 gives us a schedule similar to last week’s, with six games contested over four days Friday through Monday. Green Bay, Iowa, Quad City, and Tulsa each have a bye this week. We will get our first peek at the three remaining teams set to open their campaigns this weekend, with the Tucson Sugar Skulls, defending champion Bay Area Panthers, and the newest entrant to the IFL, the San Antonio Gunslingers. Will we be able to match or exceed our 4-2 record from last week, and perhaps piece together a winning parlay in the process? Time to make our picks!
Friday 3/29, 7:05 PM ET
Sioux Falls @ Massachusetts (-7.5)
Over/Under 77.5
Moneyline: SXF +240, MASS -298
Storylines aplenty for Friday night’s playoff re-match, with the Pirates fiercely determined to exact revenge against a Sioux Falls squad that delivered not one, but two knockout punches to end their season on consecutive weeks in 2023. The Storm won the regular season finale, which took home-field advantage away from the Pirates and set up a re-match in the postseason a week later, and that game would feature the Storm pulling off one of the most amazing comebacks in IFL Playoff history. So, yeah, Massachusetts should come out swinging right from the opening kick. And while it’s still early, the Pirate defense is looking pretty scary again, particularly the defensive front including Julius Turner and Calvin Bundage causing all sorts of problems for Green Bay and Jacksonville. Sioux Falls will go for the upset win after nearly stealing one at Quad City a week ago, as their hearty effort fell just short in the overtime. As cliché as this sounds, a close game could be in order, with both matchups last year determined by three points each, and another meeting in 2022 decided by just one point. Sneakily, the Pirates are 0-2 ATS this season, and it’s very possible they could remain undefeated straight up, yet winless on the spread after this week is said and done. But it’s so hard to overlook this total, which appears too exaggerated of an adjustment in response to the eight-for-eight "Under" streak to start 2024. League wide, offenses are going to kick into gear eventually, and a couple short fields and/or chunk plays throughout the game could be enough to finally see an Over cash. As we saw last year on a few occasions, this is exactly the market movement that we’re looking to capitalize on. Over was 3-0 last season when set to 77.5 or below. Play Sioux Falls-Massachusetts “Over”.
The Pick: OVER 77.5, $12 weighted
Friday 3/29, 8:30 PM ET
Duke City @ Frisco (-13.5)
Over/Under 80.5
Moneyline: NONE
The Fighters remain home for this week, after requiring a 15-point fourth quarter comeback and an overtime period to take down the Oilers. They welcome in the Duke City Gladiators, who just played a toilsome game less than 48 hours ago in a close loss to San Diego. Safe to say, neither team impressed in their respective openers, so both will be hungry to bring the heat in the heart of the Lone Star State. For the Gladiators, Javin Kilgo struggled in his season debut, with just nine completions compared to three interceptions, as there is a very real chance that a QB change is made, perhaps opening the door for Taz Wilson to get the nod. As for the Fighters, even when held to just 31 points last Friday, T.J. Edwards still showed he can make big plays in bunches, with over 70 rushing yards and four touchdowns on the ground to fuel the Fighters’ rally. He should be able to easily overpower what should be a tired Gladiator defense, whom he torched for 67 points in a game last season. I’m not reading too deeply into last week’s blip on the radar; play Fighters on the points, with a very attainable 14-point margin of victory all we need.
The Pick: Frisco -13.5 Spread, $8 weighted
Saturday 3/30, 9:05 PM ET
Tucson @ Northern Arizona (-2.5)
Over/Under 79.5
Moneyline: TUC +110, NAZ -130
Saturday’s lone matchup of the evening will feature the Tucson Sugar Skulls, set to finally play their first game of the season, against a Wranglers squad fresh off a bye and staring down a shot at their first win after dropping their opener two weeks ago. These teams were bottom-two in average number of possessions per game last year, with both prioritizing a stalwart defense – offense be darned. That combination wound up seeing neither game between these two squads eclipse 70 points (31-21 NAZ, and 42-28 TUC). Games were 6-2 to the Over a season ago when set at 80.5 points or below – but it should come as no surprise that both “losses” in that stretch were Tucson/NAZ matchups. For this game, I’ll shift my focus on outright winner, where I see the most value in taking the visiting Skulls to knock off their in-state rivals. My model is giving Tucson a roughly 63% chance of victory, so it really should be the Skulls as the favorites. Last year, we played Tucson outright in their first game, which also was on the road, and it paid in spades. I’ll back them to do it again in Prescott Valley at these solid odds, plus a dime!
The Pick: Tucson +110 Moneyline, $8 weighted
LINE CHANGE: The Over/Under has increased to 81.5 from its original value of 79.5, as of Saturday 3/30 at 8:45pm ET.
Sunday 3/31, 6:05 PM ET
Arizona @ Bay Area (-1.5)
Over/Under 88.5
Moneyline: ARI -105, BAY -115
In what projects as a possible Western Conference playoff preview, Arizona will look to put last week’s disappointing home loss firmly behind them; but that task could prove to be tricky on the road against the defending champions, who by the way are well-rested and possess the advantage of having seen Arizona play in two games already this season. The Rattlers are also suddenly seeking answers at QB, with prized acquisition Dalton Sneed currently injured and Garrett Kettle having difficulty unlocking the offense’s full potential. They even had to coax Lorenzo Brown out of retirement mid-week, and he ended up playing the entire second half of the loss to Vegas. Talk about a QB carousel that Kevin Guy suddenly finds himself trying to manage. Meanwhile, the Panthers rest their hopes on Da’Quan Neal, now playing for his fourth team in as many seasons, to keep the engine running for the current title holders. And if needed, Felix Harper proved last season to be a very capable “Plan B” under center. This should be a highly entertaining game, featuring the highest implied total of the week at “only” 88.5 points (For added context, no game in Weeks 1 and 2 had a total set below 89.5 points). I’ll back the home team here and lay the point plus the hook, with the status of Sneed still up in the air putting a #RevengeGame in jeopardy.
The Pick: Bay Area -1.5 Spread, $8 weighted
Sunday 3/31, 6:05 PM ET
Jacksonville @ Vegas (-6.5)
Over/Under 80.5
Moneyline: JAX +200, VGS -245
The Sharks head west to try their luck at posting their first IFL win on Sunday night, going up against a Knight Hawks team oozing confidence after their upset at Phoenix last week. It makes for such an interesting storyline, especially for an early inter-conference game that could turn out to have significant implications as the season progresses. A win for Vegas would pump the brakes, at least temporarily, on any concerns surrounding game-to-game consistency, and would put Jacksonville in an early 0-2 hole with challenging opponents in the next few games in front of them. I actually have Jacksonville projected as the slight favorite in this one, as I believe recency bias is skewing the impact of Vegas taking down Arizona just a shade too much. If the Knight Hawks must be favored, I’d say -3.5 is the highest the spread should go. This is the game where I will be taking the points on an underdog for the first time this season; even though +200 moneyline is insanely tempting to sprinkle on. Play Jacksonville +6.5, with a very real chance at straight up victory in play.
The Pick: Jacksonville +6.5 Spread, $11 weighted
Monday 4/1, 9:05 PM ET
San Antonio @ San Diego (-2.5)
Over/Under 75.5
Moneyline: SA +105, SD -125
“Monday Night Football” once again in the IFL, and if this version is any different than last week’s brutally difficult-to-watch game, it would be a very welcome development. This time, San Diego will host the contest against the new challengers of the IFL, the San Antonio Gunslingers. The offseason of the Guns was met with rave reviews by close sources, and they entered last week with the seventh-shortest odds out of the 16 teams at winning the IFL title – without having played a single snap in this league yet – so expectations are already quite lofty. A road date against the Strike Force will serve as a solid initial measuring stick, as I’m expecting San Diego’s attack to be a lot more polished playing at home and with another week of practice under their belt. The Gunslingers are on track to treat IFL fans with a first look at quarterback Sam Castronova, who engineered a Sharks offense last year that hummed to the tune of over 60 points per game in the NAL. Simply put, there is far too much skill and upside on both these teams for the total to be this low (almost seems like an appropriate April Fools' joke if you ask me). And as mentioned before, every non Tucson/NAZ game a season ago made the over when it was set at 80.5 or below. Terrific value for a second game this week on a point total adjustment that may appear in hindsight to be a steep overreaction.
The Pick: OVER 75.5, $13 weighted
Recommended Three-Leg Parlay of the Week:
As mentioned at the top, last week’s Three-Leg Parlay fell at the infamous final leg. We’ve got a chance at redemption this week, however, and I have a lot of confidence in each of these selections coming through for us this time around, including a beefy moneyline dart throw! Here is my Parlay for Week 3:
1st leg: Sioux Falls vs. Massachusetts – Storm +7.5 Spread (-110)
2nd leg: Jacksonville vs. Vegas – Sharks ML (+200)
3rd leg: San Antonio vs. San Diego – Over 75.5 (-110)
Total Odds: +993 [$10.00 wager, Max Payout $109.33]
Here’s a look as well at the Futures market, for anyone seeking to predict the winner of the 2024 IFL Championship Game (August 17th) well in advance! Odds decreases from last week will be indicated in red, and increases in green.
Arizona Rattlers: +340
Frisco Fighters: +380
Massachusetts Pirates: +600
Bay Area Panthers: +800
Tucson Sugar Skulls: +1000
Jacksonville Sharks: +1000
San Antonio Gunslingers: +1000
Quad City Steamwheelers: +1100
Sioux Falls Storm: +1200
Vegas Knight Hawks: +1300
Northern Arizona Wranglers: +1600
San Diego Strike Force: +2000
Green Bay Blizzard: +2200
Iowa Barnstormers: +3000
Tulsa Oilers: +3500
Duke City Gladiators: +3500
Don’t forget to tune in later this evening for my video coverage of Wager Wednesday, which can be found here. Again, I’ll be going live at around 10pm ET/7pm PT, so swing by if you have the chance!
Good luck to all you bettors out there; and let’s print out the big bucks!!