Post by alecs on May 1, 2024 11:29:19 GMT -8
Happy Wednesday, IFL Fans!
Welcome to Volume XXVIII of my “Wager Wednesday” series, in which I examine the current landscape of the upcoming week’s games, based on lines and odds from DraftKings Sportsbook (unless otherwise stated). As an advocate of accountability, I will recap my results - whether genius or moronic - from the prior week as well. With that, let's see how my picks from last week turned out:
• IOWA @ GB – GB -11.5 Spread [Loss]
Man, this bet felt great in the early stages. Green Bay absolutely coasted through the first half, putting themselves ahead of the Barnstormers 30-14 at halftime. Somehow in some way, Iowa was able to hold the Blizzard to just ten second half points, and put up just enough points themselves to stay in the conversation. Once the one-minute warning hit, Iowa trailed 40-26 with a 4th-and-goal from the Blizzard 14-yard line. Green Bay got the stop, but an illegal defense penalty gave the visitors a second chance. And unlike the first meeting back in Week 2, Iowa got the garbage time touchdown to pull within seven. The Blizzard recovered the ensuing onside kick, but wound up running the rest of the clock out after Iowa decided not to use its timeouts. In the second consecutive week that an Iowa backdoor cover leaves me in a philosophic crisis, Green Bay hangs on for a 40-33 win for their best start since 2019.
• SA @ FRI – SA +16.5 Spread [$19.09 flat win, $17.18 weighted win]
The big talking point I made leading up to this game was San Antonio’s offensive efficiency as the direct variable to whether or not this bet would hit. We set their mark at two empty possessions at most – and their only blemish was a turnover on downs midway through the fourth quarter. The two Texan squads took turns punching plays into the endzone, one after the other, with the fourth quarter providing the biggest swing in the game. A defensive stop by the Gunslingers gave them great field position late in the game down by just five. They would find the endzone to take the lead, and then an interception of T.J. Edwards cemented the victory for the Gunslingers, their second in a row. Going into this game as massive underdogs, San Antonio pulls out a win in Chapter One of this rivalry, 54-52, with a re-match at Alamo City on deck for next week.
• DUKE @ VGS – OVER 86.5 [Loss]
I swear, this type of game only happens in those random games where I take the Over. Despite a relatively rough first half for both teams, they were scoring points at a reasonable clip, with a field goal by Ernesto Lacayo closing the half at 28-24 with 52 total points. You want to know when the next score of the game took place? With nine minutes left… in the fourth quarter. Yep, you heard that right, we went an entire 20+ minute stretch without either team recording as much as a single point, putting a hard stop on any hopes of winning this wager. As you could imagine, it wasn’t the cleanest effort from Vegas, it did see Ja’rome Johnson get benched after two early interceptions, but in all reality, they didn’t really need their A-game to defeat the Gladiators. In the end, the Knight Hawks continue their perfect season as a result of the 42-27 victory.
• MASS @ SXF – SXF +10 Spread [$19.09 flat win, $28.64 weighted win]
The Fargo IFL Gridiron Classic might have been as much of a laundry showcase as it was a football game, with both teams under heavy scrutiny by the black-and-white striped bunch all game long. The play on the field provided a gripping narrative, with the game staying close nearly the whole way through and the lead exchanging hands multiple times as the game’s stakes got higher. With the help of some rock solid fourth quarter defense, the Pirates led by 12 in the dying moments of the game. And where one backdoor cover took-eth away 24 hours earlier, another backdoor cover gave-eth right back, with a late touchdown pass by the Storm pulling them back within five, which was all we needed to get this one through. Massachusetts logs win number five of the season – yet fall to 0-for-12 in road games against the spread – with a win of 43-38.
• NAZ @ TUC – NAZ -5.5 Spread [Loss]
Note to self: When I pick a favorite to win on the spread and they head into halftime with a 16-point lead, just chalk it up as a loss apparently. From an outcome standpoint, this game was a spitting image of the prior night’s game between Iowa and Green Bay, in which the favored Blizzard led by that same margin midway through and failed to cover. And this time, the Wranglers had nearly a touchdown more of wiggle room, needing just a six-point or greater margin of victory, and even then Tucson denied them of the finish line, with their defense of all things providing some timely plays late in the game. Down 34-25 on its final possession, Tucson’s Taz Wilson put up a lob into the back of the endzone, and Jalin Marshall elevated for a breathtaking one-handed catch for a touchdown, resulting in yet another heartbreaking backdoor cover to add to my painful two-day stretch. The Sugar Skulls comeback ultimately fell short, but they brought the game’s result close enough to destroy my wager. Northern Arizona advances to 4-1 in prevailing on the road, 34-31.
• TUL @ QC – TUL +230 Moneyline [$33.00 flat win, $19.60 weighted win]
We returned to the well by trusting Tulsa in this road matchup, and boy did we strike oil! This one turned out to be a barnburner, with the Oilers and Steamwheelers engaging in an all-out offensive duel, a type of game that usually gets decided on whichever team comes up with that turning-point defensive stop. That team happened to be the Oilers, who intercepted Judd Erickson in the fourth quarter while ahead by six, giving them that possession advantage which set them ahead for good. Backed by a career night from quarterback Daniel Smith (eight total touchdowns), the Oilers upset their Eastern Conference foes, 72-59, for an important early-season win.
• JAX @ ARI – OVER 81.5 [$19.09 flat win, $22.91 weighted win]
A battle with a rich historic storyline, the Sharks and Rattlers encountered each other for the first time in nearly eight years. Despite Dalton Sneed’s return for Arizona coming off a knee injury in the season opener, the game started slow for both teams, with just 19 combined points at the midway point of the second quarter. But the offenses did hit a nice stride before halftime, with two touchdowns apiece before the end of the half. That scoring spurt would wind up mattering significantly, as the teams went a ten-minute stretch in the second half without any scoring. Late in the fourth quarter, with the game at 46-35 Rattlers, the bet would be won in a most unique way: a holding penalty in the endzone against the Sharks resulting in a safety! The final score would be 55-35 Rattlers, carrying a notable Bad Beat for Under 83.5 bettors (the total increased prior to kickoff). With 35 seconds left, and the Rattlers inside the Sharks one-yard line with a 48-35 lead, the Sharks had no timeouts, so all Arizona had to do was kneel to win. Instead, they gave Sneed a chance at a rushing touchdown, which he converted. Absolutely painful way to see that bet go down.
• BAY @ SD – SD +124 Moneyline [LOSS]
As Patrick Mahomes said in one of his iconic State Farm commercials, “It happened again!!” Another flat first half from the Strike Force left them in a significant hole, even larger than the 18-point deficit they faced just eight days ago. Staring down a 33-7 mountain to climb, San Diego finally awakened in the second half, playing some scary good football which saw them earn a genuine chance at one of the largest recorded comebacks in IFL history. A touchdown with roughly 50 seconds left cut the Bay Area lead down to one point, but a two-point conversion gamble came up nil for the Strike Force which ultimately thwarted the hearty effort. In a game that turned out to be deceptively suspenseful – and unfortunately did include a 1979 Boston Bruins impression with just seconds to go – the Panthers once again scrape by San Diego, 33-32, to keep their perfect season going. On a separate note, all of us here at SCtoC are offering our prayers and wishes of a speedy recovery to Panthers DB Terin Adams, who had to be stretchered off the field due to what appeared to be a scary head/neck injury late in the fourth.
Week 7 was dominated by the backdoor cover, as four underdogs scored touchdowns with less than a minute to go to swing the winner of those respective spread bets. Sadly, we were the beneficiaries of only one of these (Sioux Falls), while Iowa and Tucson delivered soul-shattering heartbreak on consecutive evenings. San Diego’s monumental comeback nearly even gave us the most unlikely moneyline win, but despite the loss the Strike Force still covered at +3. Though the Barnstormers and Sugar Skulls robbed us of a potentially massive week in this series, we salvaged an even win-loss record for the weekend, four wins and four losses, and got a massive boost with Tulsa’s +230 outright win payout! On an $80 budget for the week, the flat method returned $90.27 for $10.27 of net gain, and the weighted method earned $88.53 for $8.53 of net gain. For the full season, we still sit three picks below .500 at 19-22, with the flat method at -$32.95 net loss and the weighted method at -$25.05 net loss. This was the first time since Week 3 when both methods returned net gain, which also was our last week with more winning slips than duds.
Six attempts in, and our search for our first Three-Leg Parlay win drags on, with the Green Bay/Iowa Over 77.5 leg putting the treble in the losing bin right off the bat (40-33 combined for 73 points, and GB ran clock on its final drive). A shame, considering both other legs (MASS/SXF U88.5 and San Diego +3) converted successfully, marking the fourth attempt of the six to feature two correct legs. We’ve now amassed ten out of 18 correct picks on individual legs, but again still yet to string three of those together on the same slip. After six attempts at $10 apiece, the parlay tracker currently sits at $60 of net loss. Our preseason goal of four parlay wins gets more challenging with each empty attempt, so that first winner can’t come soon enough. Will this week feature the long-awaited first victory?
Week 8 offers a small break from the full slate that we’ve had the past two times around, but still features six games across Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. The Pirates, Rattlers, Sugar Skulls, and Gladiators will sit this week out. With the calendar turning to May, will that allow us to put an 11-17 April record behind us and start a fresh new winning month? Our target is four wins to clinch the winning week, so let’s look at the lines and dig in!
Friday 5/3, 8:05 PM ET
Green Bay (-10) @ Sioux Falls
Over/Under 79.5
Moneyline: GB -450, SXF +300 [ESPNBet]
The week commences with the second meeting of the season between the Blizzard and Storm, just 14 days after Green Bay defeated their South Dakotan rivals in a 48-35 win at the Resch Center. The stellar play of Max Meylor, coupled with a strait-jacket defense, has launched the Blizzard to their best start since 2019, while Sioux Falls is stuck in its worst start in the franchise’s sterling history. We’re at the point in the season where we have to start discussing the impending inevitability of “The Trap Game”, but the track records are just too strong to suggest that occurs here. Green Bay’s lone ATS loss - and the Storm’s lone ATS win - both came last week and required wonky backdoor covers, which cannot be counted on reliably despite what last week showed us. Sioux Falls has had some close losses so far of five, six (OT), and eight points, and they do carry considerable talent on that roster. But Green Bay’s on a ferocious tear right now, and they also boast a skilled group with a considerable ceiling. My model has Blizzard laying -11.5, so we’ll again trust Green Bay and give them another shot at the cover.
The Pick: Green Bay -10 Spread, $14 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Blizzard 45 – Storm 33
LINE CHANGE: The O/U for this game has increased to 80.5 on DraftKings, effective Friday 5/3 at 6:30pm ET.
Friday 5/3, 8:05 PM ET
Jacksonville @ Tulsa (-13.5)
Over/Under 82.5
Moneyline: JAX +380, TUL -600 [ESPNBet]
After erupting for a franchise-high 72 points last week in Moline, the Oilers return to BOK Center, where they welcome a Jacksonville Sharks team that remains in pursuit of a win as an IFL franchise. A Sharks defense that had started out strong is beginning to feel the ill effects of its lackluster offense, surrendering at least 48 points in each of its last three games. Not great news leading up to a game against Daniel Smith, fresh off a career-best eight-touchdown outing despite an abbreviated supporting cast. Though, the Oilers defense has also sprung a leak recently, with 159 points allowed in its past three games, offering some hope for a Sharks offense in search of continuous improvement. Jacksonville’s past three losses have been rough, though, losing by 20, 26, and 24 points, and their only two ATS wins prior to that both came by the hook. Locking this in at less than two touchdowns favoring Tulsa presents super value, as I expect the Oilers to hit the ground running in front of their fans after they faceplanted the last time they were at home.
The Pick: Tulsa -13.5 Spread, $11 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Oilers 51 – Sharks 34
LINE CHANGE: The O/U for this game has increased to 83.5 on DraftKings, effective Friday 5/3 at 6:30pm ET.
Saturday 5/4, 7:05 PM ET
Frisco (-7) @ San Antonio
Over/Under 103.5
Moneyline: FRI -250, SA +205
Shortly after we send the horses off to the races at the Kentucky Derby, the Fighters and Gunslingers will get their high-flying grudge match underway. It will be a fun challenge to see if San Antonio can replicate the near-perfect efficiency that led them to last week’s massive upset in Comerica Center, as Andre Coles will undoubtedly throw in some heavy adjustments to the gameplan of slowing down Castronova’s crew. I could see Frisco attempting to sustain longer drives while on offense and make the time of possession battle as lopsided in their favor as possible. On only one occasion in franchise history have the Fighters lost consecutive games – and never have they done so within the same season. Expect them to do whatever it takes to limit San Antonio’s opportunities to strike; for that reason I’m playing Frisco/San Antonio “Under”. I’m ready to potentially look silly after the fact, but I can’t see a well-coached Fighters team letting up more than 50 points on consecutive weeks.
The Pick: UNDER 103.5, $9 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Fighters 54 – Gunslingers 45
LINE CHANGE: The O/U for this game increased to 104.5 prior to kickoff on DraftKings. Effective Saturday 5/4 as of 7:00pm ET.
Saturday 5/4, 8:05 PM ET
Quad City (-3) @ Iowa
Over/Under 83.5
Moneyline: QC -148, IOWA +124
The last encounter between Quad City and Iowa in Des Moines resulted in arguably the most shocking Trap Game in recent memory, with the Barnstormers obliterating the playoff-bound Steamwheelers with an entirely unexpected 80-point onslaught last season. It’s a must-have game for both Eastern Conference teams, with the current top four adding to their potential playoff resumes with each passing week. Iowa will look to neutralize Quad City’s rushing attack, which has sparked their offense with two straight 50+ point showings after failing to hit 40 in each of their first three. The Barnstormer defense has been sneakily better than most people advertise, letting up under 40 points per ten possessions in a very road-heavy schedule so far, so they could provide a solid test as to whether Judd Erickson and his Steamwheeler offense are currently playing outside their element. My line has this closer to a pick ‘em with the game played at Wells Fargo Arena, so that means it’s time to throw a plus-odds moneyline dart at the home side, as I predict a Barnstormer breakout into the win column!
The Pick: Iowa +124 Moneyline, $8 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Barnstormers 44 – Steamwheelers 41
Saturday 5/4, 9:05 PM ET
Vegas @ Bay Area (-2.5)
Over/Under 88.5
Moneyline: VGS +114, BAY -135
Even with two other Saturday games scheduled, all eyes will surely be on this one at SAP Center. Two undefeated titans will enter the arena – and only one will remain standing in the end. As the defending Champions, Bay Area’s path to 5-0 hardly qualifies as surprising, but the Knight Hawks start has captivated the attention of fans across the nation. Ja’rome Johnson has built an early foundation for MVP consideration, even with last week’s benching against Duke City. And Bay Area has exhibited its clutch factor and elite defense up to this point in staying spotless. In a game as closely projected as this one is, it provides what will be an ultra-rare opportunity to back Vegas as an outright plus-money underdog. Panthers have looked a shade susceptible recently (think back to the two lackluster second halves against San Diego), and Vegas will almost certainly focus on ironing out the wrinkles that came up against the Gladiators. Roll the dice on visiting Vegas to vulture the victory!
The Pick: Vegas +114 Moneyline, $9 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Knight Hawks 43 - Panthers 40
LINE CHANGE: The O/U for this game has increased to 89.5 on DraftKings, effective Saturday 5/4 as of 7:00pm ET.
Sunday 5/5, 6:05 PM ET
Northern Arizona @ San Diego (-4.5)
Over/Under 88.5
Moneyline: NAZ +154, SD -185
Sunday’s lone contest features what could be another Western Conference playoff preview, with the current #3 and #4 ranked teams in that group set to battle in San Diego. The last two weeks have been interesting for both teams, with the Wranglers logging low-scoring wins of 39-23 and 34-31, and San Diego nearly completing two massive comebacks against the title-holding Panthers. One metric that has caught me eye is that the Wranglers and Strike Force co-lead the league in adjusted tempo, as determined by number of possessions per game. That carries two schools of thought: Does that trend of tempo continue and propel this game’s combined total, or will this game regress back to the mean and equate to each team having one fewer possession than they are used to? With both teams showing some recent strength defensively, my guess is the latter scenario, in addition to the belief that the Strike Force defense can make some noise after the early part of their schedule threw them some lethal offenses to start (ARI, BAY 2x, SA). Play Wranglers/Strike Force “Under”.
The Pick: UNDER 88.5, $9 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Strike Force 45 – Wranglers 39
LINE CHANGE: The spread has changed from San Diego -4.5 to San Diego -3, and moneyline payouts have changed to NAZ +130, SD -155, both on DraftKings. Changes effective Saturday 5/4 at 7:00pm ET.
Recommended Three-Leg Parlay of the Week:
It’s the beginning of May, and we still have yet to develop a winning parlay slip! We’ve gotten to within one leg of winning four times, and success seems like it’s waiting around the corner for us! Minimum total odds of +400 applies, as that rule has all season, so let’s see if this combo is the one that finally brings us to the promised land:
1st leg: Frisco @ San Antonio – Fighters Moneyline (-250)
2nd leg: Vegas @ Bay Area – UNDER 88.5 (-110)
3rd leg: Northern Arizona @ San Diego – Strike Force -4.5 Spread (-110)
Total Odds: +410 [$10.00 wager, Max Payout $51.02]
Here’s a look as well at the Futures market, for anyone seeking to predict the winner of the 2024 IFL Championship Game (August 17th) well in advance! Odds decreases from last week will be indicated in red, and increases in green.
Bay Area Panthers: +270
Vegas Knight Hawks: +400
Frisco Fighters: +450
Massachusetts Pirates: +475
Arizona Rattlers: +700
San Diego Strike Force: +750
Green Bay Blizzard: +1500
Northern Arizona Wranglers: +1600
San Antonio Gunslingers: +1700
Tulsa Oilers: +2500
Quad City Steamwheelers: +3000
Tucson Sugar Skulls: +4000
Sioux Falls Storm: +7500
Jacksonville Sharks: +7500
Duke City Gladiators: +7500
Iowa Barnstormers: +7500
Don’t forget to tune in later this evening for my video coverage of Wager Wednesday, which can be found here. Again, I’ll be going live at around 10pm ET/7pm PT, so swing by if you have the chance!
Good luck to all you bettors out there; and let’s print out the big bucks!!
Welcome to Volume XXVIII of my “Wager Wednesday” series, in which I examine the current landscape of the upcoming week’s games, based on lines and odds from DraftKings Sportsbook (unless otherwise stated). As an advocate of accountability, I will recap my results - whether genius or moronic - from the prior week as well. With that, let's see how my picks from last week turned out:
• IOWA @ GB – GB -11.5 Spread [Loss]
Man, this bet felt great in the early stages. Green Bay absolutely coasted through the first half, putting themselves ahead of the Barnstormers 30-14 at halftime. Somehow in some way, Iowa was able to hold the Blizzard to just ten second half points, and put up just enough points themselves to stay in the conversation. Once the one-minute warning hit, Iowa trailed 40-26 with a 4th-and-goal from the Blizzard 14-yard line. Green Bay got the stop, but an illegal defense penalty gave the visitors a second chance. And unlike the first meeting back in Week 2, Iowa got the garbage time touchdown to pull within seven. The Blizzard recovered the ensuing onside kick, but wound up running the rest of the clock out after Iowa decided not to use its timeouts. In the second consecutive week that an Iowa backdoor cover leaves me in a philosophic crisis, Green Bay hangs on for a 40-33 win for their best start since 2019.
• SA @ FRI – SA +16.5 Spread [$19.09 flat win, $17.18 weighted win]
The big talking point I made leading up to this game was San Antonio’s offensive efficiency as the direct variable to whether or not this bet would hit. We set their mark at two empty possessions at most – and their only blemish was a turnover on downs midway through the fourth quarter. The two Texan squads took turns punching plays into the endzone, one after the other, with the fourth quarter providing the biggest swing in the game. A defensive stop by the Gunslingers gave them great field position late in the game down by just five. They would find the endzone to take the lead, and then an interception of T.J. Edwards cemented the victory for the Gunslingers, their second in a row. Going into this game as massive underdogs, San Antonio pulls out a win in Chapter One of this rivalry, 54-52, with a re-match at Alamo City on deck for next week.
• DUKE @ VGS – OVER 86.5 [Loss]
I swear, this type of game only happens in those random games where I take the Over. Despite a relatively rough first half for both teams, they were scoring points at a reasonable clip, with a field goal by Ernesto Lacayo closing the half at 28-24 with 52 total points. You want to know when the next score of the game took place? With nine minutes left… in the fourth quarter. Yep, you heard that right, we went an entire 20+ minute stretch without either team recording as much as a single point, putting a hard stop on any hopes of winning this wager. As you could imagine, it wasn’t the cleanest effort from Vegas, it did see Ja’rome Johnson get benched after two early interceptions, but in all reality, they didn’t really need their A-game to defeat the Gladiators. In the end, the Knight Hawks continue their perfect season as a result of the 42-27 victory.
• MASS @ SXF – SXF +10 Spread [$19.09 flat win, $28.64 weighted win]
The Fargo IFL Gridiron Classic might have been as much of a laundry showcase as it was a football game, with both teams under heavy scrutiny by the black-and-white striped bunch all game long. The play on the field provided a gripping narrative, with the game staying close nearly the whole way through and the lead exchanging hands multiple times as the game’s stakes got higher. With the help of some rock solid fourth quarter defense, the Pirates led by 12 in the dying moments of the game. And where one backdoor cover took-eth away 24 hours earlier, another backdoor cover gave-eth right back, with a late touchdown pass by the Storm pulling them back within five, which was all we needed to get this one through. Massachusetts logs win number five of the season – yet fall to 0-for-12 in road games against the spread – with a win of 43-38.
• NAZ @ TUC – NAZ -5.5 Spread [Loss]
Note to self: When I pick a favorite to win on the spread and they head into halftime with a 16-point lead, just chalk it up as a loss apparently. From an outcome standpoint, this game was a spitting image of the prior night’s game between Iowa and Green Bay, in which the favored Blizzard led by that same margin midway through and failed to cover. And this time, the Wranglers had nearly a touchdown more of wiggle room, needing just a six-point or greater margin of victory, and even then Tucson denied them of the finish line, with their defense of all things providing some timely plays late in the game. Down 34-25 on its final possession, Tucson’s Taz Wilson put up a lob into the back of the endzone, and Jalin Marshall elevated for a breathtaking one-handed catch for a touchdown, resulting in yet another heartbreaking backdoor cover to add to my painful two-day stretch. The Sugar Skulls comeback ultimately fell short, but they brought the game’s result close enough to destroy my wager. Northern Arizona advances to 4-1 in prevailing on the road, 34-31.
• TUL @ QC – TUL +230 Moneyline [$33.00 flat win, $19.60 weighted win]
We returned to the well by trusting Tulsa in this road matchup, and boy did we strike oil! This one turned out to be a barnburner, with the Oilers and Steamwheelers engaging in an all-out offensive duel, a type of game that usually gets decided on whichever team comes up with that turning-point defensive stop. That team happened to be the Oilers, who intercepted Judd Erickson in the fourth quarter while ahead by six, giving them that possession advantage which set them ahead for good. Backed by a career night from quarterback Daniel Smith (eight total touchdowns), the Oilers upset their Eastern Conference foes, 72-59, for an important early-season win.
• JAX @ ARI – OVER 81.5 [$19.09 flat win, $22.91 weighted win]
A battle with a rich historic storyline, the Sharks and Rattlers encountered each other for the first time in nearly eight years. Despite Dalton Sneed’s return for Arizona coming off a knee injury in the season opener, the game started slow for both teams, with just 19 combined points at the midway point of the second quarter. But the offenses did hit a nice stride before halftime, with two touchdowns apiece before the end of the half. That scoring spurt would wind up mattering significantly, as the teams went a ten-minute stretch in the second half without any scoring. Late in the fourth quarter, with the game at 46-35 Rattlers, the bet would be won in a most unique way: a holding penalty in the endzone against the Sharks resulting in a safety! The final score would be 55-35 Rattlers, carrying a notable Bad Beat for Under 83.5 bettors (the total increased prior to kickoff). With 35 seconds left, and the Rattlers inside the Sharks one-yard line with a 48-35 lead, the Sharks had no timeouts, so all Arizona had to do was kneel to win. Instead, they gave Sneed a chance at a rushing touchdown, which he converted. Absolutely painful way to see that bet go down.
• BAY @ SD – SD +124 Moneyline [LOSS]
As Patrick Mahomes said in one of his iconic State Farm commercials, “It happened again!!” Another flat first half from the Strike Force left them in a significant hole, even larger than the 18-point deficit they faced just eight days ago. Staring down a 33-7 mountain to climb, San Diego finally awakened in the second half, playing some scary good football which saw them earn a genuine chance at one of the largest recorded comebacks in IFL history. A touchdown with roughly 50 seconds left cut the Bay Area lead down to one point, but a two-point conversion gamble came up nil for the Strike Force which ultimately thwarted the hearty effort. In a game that turned out to be deceptively suspenseful – and unfortunately did include a 1979 Boston Bruins impression with just seconds to go – the Panthers once again scrape by San Diego, 33-32, to keep their perfect season going. On a separate note, all of us here at SCtoC are offering our prayers and wishes of a speedy recovery to Panthers DB Terin Adams, who had to be stretchered off the field due to what appeared to be a scary head/neck injury late in the fourth.
Week 7 was dominated by the backdoor cover, as four underdogs scored touchdowns with less than a minute to go to swing the winner of those respective spread bets. Sadly, we were the beneficiaries of only one of these (Sioux Falls), while Iowa and Tucson delivered soul-shattering heartbreak on consecutive evenings. San Diego’s monumental comeback nearly even gave us the most unlikely moneyline win, but despite the loss the Strike Force still covered at +3. Though the Barnstormers and Sugar Skulls robbed us of a potentially massive week in this series, we salvaged an even win-loss record for the weekend, four wins and four losses, and got a massive boost with Tulsa’s +230 outright win payout! On an $80 budget for the week, the flat method returned $90.27 for $10.27 of net gain, and the weighted method earned $88.53 for $8.53 of net gain. For the full season, we still sit three picks below .500 at 19-22, with the flat method at -$32.95 net loss and the weighted method at -$25.05 net loss. This was the first time since Week 3 when both methods returned net gain, which also was our last week with more winning slips than duds.
Six attempts in, and our search for our first Three-Leg Parlay win drags on, with the Green Bay/Iowa Over 77.5 leg putting the treble in the losing bin right off the bat (40-33 combined for 73 points, and GB ran clock on its final drive). A shame, considering both other legs (MASS/SXF U88.5 and San Diego +3) converted successfully, marking the fourth attempt of the six to feature two correct legs. We’ve now amassed ten out of 18 correct picks on individual legs, but again still yet to string three of those together on the same slip. After six attempts at $10 apiece, the parlay tracker currently sits at $60 of net loss. Our preseason goal of four parlay wins gets more challenging with each empty attempt, so that first winner can’t come soon enough. Will this week feature the long-awaited first victory?
Week 8 offers a small break from the full slate that we’ve had the past two times around, but still features six games across Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. The Pirates, Rattlers, Sugar Skulls, and Gladiators will sit this week out. With the calendar turning to May, will that allow us to put an 11-17 April record behind us and start a fresh new winning month? Our target is four wins to clinch the winning week, so let’s look at the lines and dig in!
Friday 5/3, 8:05 PM ET
Green Bay (-10) @ Sioux Falls
Over/Under 79.5
Moneyline: GB -450, SXF +300 [ESPNBet]
The week commences with the second meeting of the season between the Blizzard and Storm, just 14 days after Green Bay defeated their South Dakotan rivals in a 48-35 win at the Resch Center. The stellar play of Max Meylor, coupled with a strait-jacket defense, has launched the Blizzard to their best start since 2019, while Sioux Falls is stuck in its worst start in the franchise’s sterling history. We’re at the point in the season where we have to start discussing the impending inevitability of “The Trap Game”, but the track records are just too strong to suggest that occurs here. Green Bay’s lone ATS loss - and the Storm’s lone ATS win - both came last week and required wonky backdoor covers, which cannot be counted on reliably despite what last week showed us. Sioux Falls has had some close losses so far of five, six (OT), and eight points, and they do carry considerable talent on that roster. But Green Bay’s on a ferocious tear right now, and they also boast a skilled group with a considerable ceiling. My model has Blizzard laying -11.5, so we’ll again trust Green Bay and give them another shot at the cover.
The Pick: Green Bay -10 Spread, $14 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Blizzard 45 – Storm 33
LINE CHANGE: The O/U for this game has increased to 80.5 on DraftKings, effective Friday 5/3 at 6:30pm ET.
Friday 5/3, 8:05 PM ET
Jacksonville @ Tulsa (-13.5)
Over/Under 82.5
Moneyline: JAX +380, TUL -600 [ESPNBet]
After erupting for a franchise-high 72 points last week in Moline, the Oilers return to BOK Center, where they welcome a Jacksonville Sharks team that remains in pursuit of a win as an IFL franchise. A Sharks defense that had started out strong is beginning to feel the ill effects of its lackluster offense, surrendering at least 48 points in each of its last three games. Not great news leading up to a game against Daniel Smith, fresh off a career-best eight-touchdown outing despite an abbreviated supporting cast. Though, the Oilers defense has also sprung a leak recently, with 159 points allowed in its past three games, offering some hope for a Sharks offense in search of continuous improvement. Jacksonville’s past three losses have been rough, though, losing by 20, 26, and 24 points, and their only two ATS wins prior to that both came by the hook. Locking this in at less than two touchdowns favoring Tulsa presents super value, as I expect the Oilers to hit the ground running in front of their fans after they faceplanted the last time they were at home.
The Pick: Tulsa -13.5 Spread, $11 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Oilers 51 – Sharks 34
LINE CHANGE: The O/U for this game has increased to 83.5 on DraftKings, effective Friday 5/3 at 6:30pm ET.
Saturday 5/4, 7:05 PM ET
Frisco (-7) @ San Antonio
Over/Under 103.5
Moneyline: FRI -250, SA +205
Shortly after we send the horses off to the races at the Kentucky Derby, the Fighters and Gunslingers will get their high-flying grudge match underway. It will be a fun challenge to see if San Antonio can replicate the near-perfect efficiency that led them to last week’s massive upset in Comerica Center, as Andre Coles will undoubtedly throw in some heavy adjustments to the gameplan of slowing down Castronova’s crew. I could see Frisco attempting to sustain longer drives while on offense and make the time of possession battle as lopsided in their favor as possible. On only one occasion in franchise history have the Fighters lost consecutive games – and never have they done so within the same season. Expect them to do whatever it takes to limit San Antonio’s opportunities to strike; for that reason I’m playing Frisco/San Antonio “Under”. I’m ready to potentially look silly after the fact, but I can’t see a well-coached Fighters team letting up more than 50 points on consecutive weeks.
The Pick: UNDER 103.5, $9 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Fighters 54 – Gunslingers 45
LINE CHANGE: The O/U for this game increased to 104.5 prior to kickoff on DraftKings. Effective Saturday 5/4 as of 7:00pm ET.
Saturday 5/4, 8:05 PM ET
Quad City (-3) @ Iowa
Over/Under 83.5
Moneyline: QC -148, IOWA +124
The last encounter between Quad City and Iowa in Des Moines resulted in arguably the most shocking Trap Game in recent memory, with the Barnstormers obliterating the playoff-bound Steamwheelers with an entirely unexpected 80-point onslaught last season. It’s a must-have game for both Eastern Conference teams, with the current top four adding to their potential playoff resumes with each passing week. Iowa will look to neutralize Quad City’s rushing attack, which has sparked their offense with two straight 50+ point showings after failing to hit 40 in each of their first three. The Barnstormer defense has been sneakily better than most people advertise, letting up under 40 points per ten possessions in a very road-heavy schedule so far, so they could provide a solid test as to whether Judd Erickson and his Steamwheeler offense are currently playing outside their element. My line has this closer to a pick ‘em with the game played at Wells Fargo Arena, so that means it’s time to throw a plus-odds moneyline dart at the home side, as I predict a Barnstormer breakout into the win column!
The Pick: Iowa +124 Moneyline, $8 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Barnstormers 44 – Steamwheelers 41
Saturday 5/4, 9:05 PM ET
Vegas @ Bay Area (-2.5)
Over/Under 88.5
Moneyline: VGS +114, BAY -135
Even with two other Saturday games scheduled, all eyes will surely be on this one at SAP Center. Two undefeated titans will enter the arena – and only one will remain standing in the end. As the defending Champions, Bay Area’s path to 5-0 hardly qualifies as surprising, but the Knight Hawks start has captivated the attention of fans across the nation. Ja’rome Johnson has built an early foundation for MVP consideration, even with last week’s benching against Duke City. And Bay Area has exhibited its clutch factor and elite defense up to this point in staying spotless. In a game as closely projected as this one is, it provides what will be an ultra-rare opportunity to back Vegas as an outright plus-money underdog. Panthers have looked a shade susceptible recently (think back to the two lackluster second halves against San Diego), and Vegas will almost certainly focus on ironing out the wrinkles that came up against the Gladiators. Roll the dice on visiting Vegas to vulture the victory!
The Pick: Vegas +114 Moneyline, $9 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Knight Hawks 43 - Panthers 40
LINE CHANGE: The O/U for this game has increased to 89.5 on DraftKings, effective Saturday 5/4 as of 7:00pm ET.
Sunday 5/5, 6:05 PM ET
Northern Arizona @ San Diego (-4.5)
Over/Under 88.5
Moneyline: NAZ +154, SD -185
Sunday’s lone contest features what could be another Western Conference playoff preview, with the current #3 and #4 ranked teams in that group set to battle in San Diego. The last two weeks have been interesting for both teams, with the Wranglers logging low-scoring wins of 39-23 and 34-31, and San Diego nearly completing two massive comebacks against the title-holding Panthers. One metric that has caught me eye is that the Wranglers and Strike Force co-lead the league in adjusted tempo, as determined by number of possessions per game. That carries two schools of thought: Does that trend of tempo continue and propel this game’s combined total, or will this game regress back to the mean and equate to each team having one fewer possession than they are used to? With both teams showing some recent strength defensively, my guess is the latter scenario, in addition to the belief that the Strike Force defense can make some noise after the early part of their schedule threw them some lethal offenses to start (ARI, BAY 2x, SA). Play Wranglers/Strike Force “Under”.
The Pick: UNDER 88.5, $9 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Strike Force 45 – Wranglers 39
LINE CHANGE: The spread has changed from San Diego -4.5 to San Diego -3, and moneyline payouts have changed to NAZ +130, SD -155, both on DraftKings. Changes effective Saturday 5/4 at 7:00pm ET.
Recommended Three-Leg Parlay of the Week:
It’s the beginning of May, and we still have yet to develop a winning parlay slip! We’ve gotten to within one leg of winning four times, and success seems like it’s waiting around the corner for us! Minimum total odds of +400 applies, as that rule has all season, so let’s see if this combo is the one that finally brings us to the promised land:
1st leg: Frisco @ San Antonio – Fighters Moneyline (-250)
2nd leg: Vegas @ Bay Area – UNDER 88.5 (-110)
3rd leg: Northern Arizona @ San Diego – Strike Force -4.5 Spread (-110)
Total Odds: +410 [$10.00 wager, Max Payout $51.02]
Here’s a look as well at the Futures market, for anyone seeking to predict the winner of the 2024 IFL Championship Game (August 17th) well in advance! Odds decreases from last week will be indicated in red, and increases in green.
Bay Area Panthers: +270
Vegas Knight Hawks: +400
Frisco Fighters: +450
Massachusetts Pirates: +475
Arizona Rattlers: +700
San Diego Strike Force: +750
Green Bay Blizzard: +1500
Northern Arizona Wranglers: +1600
San Antonio Gunslingers: +1700
Tulsa Oilers: +2500
Quad City Steamwheelers: +3000
Tucson Sugar Skulls: +4000
Sioux Falls Storm: +7500
Jacksonville Sharks: +7500
Duke City Gladiators: +7500
Iowa Barnstormers: +7500
Don’t forget to tune in later this evening for my video coverage of Wager Wednesday, which can be found here. Again, I’ll be going live at around 10pm ET/7pm PT, so swing by if you have the chance!
Good luck to all you bettors out there; and let’s print out the big bucks!!