Post by alecs on Jul 17, 2024 7:09:38 GMT -8
Happy Wednesday, IFL Fans!
Welcome to Volume XXXIX of my Wager Wednesday series, in which I examine the current landscape of the upcoming week’s games, based on lines and odds from DraftKings Sportsbook (unless otherwise stated). As an advocate of accountability, I will recap my results - whether genius or moronic - from the prior week as well. With that, let's see how my picks from last week turned out:
• GB @ JAX – UNDER 89 [$19.09 flat win, $13.36 weighted win]
My younger sister will surely be the first to tell you this if she had the chance, but these bets do something terrible to my mental and emotional stability during the game and genuinely make me question what is fundamentally wrong with my overall well-being. The game itself was abundant in offensive efficiency but lagging behind in the tempo/number of possessions category, resulting in just 53 points through three quarters. Only a fourth quarter of 37 points (or possibly overtime) could have swiped this one away from us. Naturally, the tempo returned in a big way in the last 15 minutes, with the following string of possessions: FG, Safety, TD, TD, TD, TD, End of Game. That’s 34 lightning-fast points, and that “End of Game” possession involved the Blizzard trying to score not one, not two, not three, not four, but FIVE exasperating times when in all reality they could have take a knee from the beginning. Thank our lucky stars, no Blizzard player could cross the goal line before the expiration of time. In a spot that took quite literally every bead of sweat out of my being, the Blizzard nip the Sharks 45-42, while begrudgingly keeping the total sub-90 to cash our wager. Over/Under on number of neurological therapist visits I make within the next seven days has been set at 0.5.
• SXF @ IOWA – SXF +1.5 Spread [LOSS]
After a pair of discouraging, uncompetitive losses to the Rattlers (29 points) and Sharks (26 points), I’m sure a lot of eyes were turned by the fact that Iowa was set as the slight favorite for this game, but it sort of ended up as a “reverse trap line” if that makes any sense. Perhaps lost in that shuffle is a fact that we’ve pointed out in the past but didn’t really factor in our decision as much this time around, and that is the Storm’s brutal record on the spread (now an IFL-worst 5-10 ATS after this week). From the jump, there was no doubt about this one, with Iowa blasting ahead 26-3 before the Storm could get their footing underneath them. The lead skyrocketed as high as 29 points, and even a game-closing 16-0 run by the Storm came far too late. Backed by a six-touchdown, zero-turnover gem by Brandon Alt, the Barnstormers decisively silenced their critics and skeptics with a loud 65-54 win over the Storm.
• QC @ TUL – TUL +4.5 Spread [$19.09 flat win, $13.36 weighted win]
Holy smoke, am I glad that we locked this pick in when we did, because the pre-kick line plummeted all the way to Tulsa +2.5 right before kickoff! And wouldn’t you know it, that line shift mattered! The game was as competitive as advertised, low-scoring in the first half, and the largest lead of the game never reached more than six points. The lead changed hands ten times and truly went right down to the wire in the classic “who gets the ball last” game script. Down by three after what turned out to be a critical two-point conversion by the Oilers, the Steamwheelers needed at least a field goal to extend the game and a touchdown to win it. Once again, the hero would be Mike Irwin, filling in for an injured Judd Erickson on that game-deciding drive and barreling his way across the goal line for a three-yard touchdown that would serve as the game-winner. The Steamwheelers solidify the final spot in the Eastern Conference playoffs with the 39-35 win. Early birds on Oilers +4.5 were rewarded for locking in at the opening spread of 4.5 points. Anyone who waited and settled for +3 or +2.5 was out of luck.
• DUKE @ BAY – UNDER 85.5 [$19.09 flat win, $22.91 weighted win]
This is why we trust our numbers. This is why we go back to the well that historically has proven superbly profitable. Perhaps unsurprisingly, Duke City came out feisty to start this one; though it wasn’t the 17-0 opening run we’ve seen this team capable of, Duke City still trailed by a manageable 23-20 margin at halftime. 28 combined third quarter points left us just 14 points worth of room for error. An early goal-line stand by the Panthers to start the quarter was the first piece to fall into place, and the Panthers used the strength of their running game to annihilate a large chunk of the remaining clock. With five minutes left, the Gladiators could have crashed the party with a touchdown and two points. They got as close as Bay Area’s 15-yard line for that touchdown, but a pass from Javin Kilgo was tipped high and intercepted by Tyrone Cromwell, ending any threat of garbage time nonsense. It was as solid a showing from the Panthers as we have seen this season, an effort which helps them clinch home-turf advantage in defeating Duke City 50-28, staying below the lowest implied total of the week at 85.5.
• SA @ TUC – SA -345 Moneyline [$12.90 flat win, $23.22 weighted win]
Forgive my quasi-coarse language, but I friggin’ KNEW that the Skulls would pull some bull on me if I had gone with San Antonio -7.5! This one really hurts for anyone who backed the Guns on the spread, as they led this game by 26 points with just ten minutes remaining. Then the agonizing sequence that made this game appear closer than it really was: Tucson TD, Tucson onside kick recovery, Tucson TD, San Antonio turnover on downs, Tucson TD with 45 seconds left. 50 minutes of near-perfection for the Gunslingers, only to be undone by a pedestrian ten-minute finale allowing Tucson to pull off an improbable backdoor cover, which is at least the fourth time they’ve done that this season. We, however, went moneyline, so there was no real cause for concern despite the game-closing 20-0 run by Tucson. San Antonio gets above the .500 line with the 49-43 win over the Sugar Skulls. Notably, this is Tucson’s seventh consecutive game to stay below the point total.
• VGS @ NAZ – OVER 101.5 [LOSS]
In hindsight, this game really turned out to be a spitting image of Green Bay/Jacksonville as far as the O/U implications went. Both teams attempted to limit the opportunities for the other to score, leaving this game with just 58 points at the end of three quarters. Thanks to a favorable game script with the Wranglers chasing a 35-23 deficit, the combination of desperation from Northern Arizona and the resulting short fields from some onside kick attempts paved the way for six touchdowns in the game’s final 15 minutes. On the last possession of a 55-45 game, all we needed was one last NAZ touchdown to cash this over. Sadly, this drive would come up short, with multiple short-range endzone passes narrowly missing the mark resulting in a turnover on downs. The Knight Hawks clinch their first-ever playoff berth, avenging their prior defeat to the Wranglers, 55-45.
With the 9:00pm Saturday games finally deciding to play nice for a change, we were able to string together a pivotal winning week, gathering four winners compared to just two duds! Had Northern Arizona found the endzone late in their game against Vegas, this could have been 5-1! The end result shakes out to where we enter the last week of the regular season needing to make up just two games to drive our way back to an even record! Considering we were as far back as eight games down, this has been a fantastic stretch to give us an honest shot at leveling our record out, or perhaps ending up above! Our $60 budget for the week returned $70.17 for the flat method and $72.85 for the weighted method, resulting in a pair of net gains at $10.17 (flat) and $12.85 (weighted). Entering Week 19, our single-game record stands at 58-60-1, with year-to-date net loss marks standing at -$85.81 (flat) and -$95.65 (weighted). Despite the prolonged stretch of brutality this season, we are actually a very respectable 21-15-1 since Week 14, a firm indication that we are wrapping up this season on a high note!
The Three-Leg Parlay of the Week found no success in generating cash flow, with this being the second consecutive week – and eighth overall – where we were two-of-three correct and one painstaking leg away from greatness. The culprit this time was the usually reliable Green Bay spread leg; the Blizzard had to cover at 13.5 points (even though this line dropped to 12.5 prior to kickoff) and did not come particularly close to that mark, winning their contest against the Sharks by just three points. The hearty effort from the Sharks negated the other two shrewd selections of Quad City/Tulsa Under 88.5 (game combined for 74) and Knight Hawks +1 Spread (Vegas won by ten). The results leave us with one final chance at a regular season parlay win, with Week 10’s attempt as our only success so far. The net loss figure for parlays is elevated to -$115.02 and leaves us with an interesting decision to make an interesting decision for this week’s parlay: Do we “maximize” our chances of winning with a slip near our minimum odds of +400, or do we go gutsy and try for a Hail Mary longshot that could get us back to net gain? Read on to find out, I suppose!
Here we are, folks, it is the 19th and final week of the 2024 Regular Season! Every team is in action, with playoff seeding still left to be determined and the last Western Conference spot still up for grabs between Arizona and NAZ. The Wranglers may already know before their Sunday kick whether or not they’re still alive, as Arizona plays their game at San Antonio one night earlier. It makes for some interesting calls since we’re locking in picks tonight, a similar conundrum that we faced last year, with some games playing out differently depending on earlier results. Before we start making our picks for the games, here is a quick primer on the playoff clinching and seeding scenarios:
EASTERN CONFERENCE: TO DETERMINE SEEDS 1 AND 2
• Green Bay clinches #1 seed with WIN (at Sioux Falls) OR Frisco LOSS
• Frisco clinches #1 seed with WIN (vs. Iowa) AND Green Bay LOSS
EASTERN CONFERENCE: TO DETERMINE SEEDS 3 AND 4
• Massachusetts clinches #3 seed with WIN (at Tulsa) OR Quad City LOSS
• Quad City clinches #3 seed with WIN (at Jacksonville) AND Massachusetts LOSS
WESTERN CONFERENCE: TO DETERMINE FIRST-ROUND HOME GAME
• San Diego clinches #2 seed with WIN (vs. Bay Aera) OR [Vegas LOSS AND Arizona LOSS]
• Vegas clinches #2 seed with WIN (vs. Tucson) AND San Diego LOSS
• Arizona clinches #2 seed with WIN (at San Antonio) AND Vegas LOSS AND San Diego LOSS
WESTERN CONFERENCE: TO DETERMINE FINAL PLAYOFF SPOT AND SEEDING
• Arizona clinches playoff berth with WIN (at San Antonio) OR Northern Arizona LOSS
• Northern Arizona clinches playoff berth with WIN (at Duke City) AND Arizona LOSS
• NAZ can only earn #4 seed. Arizona, Vegas, and San Diego can earn #2, #3, or #4 seed
Now that we know what’s at stake and for whom, it’s time to take a look at the lines for these last eight regular season games! A winning week – barring possibility of any pushes – gets us at least to .500 on the slips; can we continue our strong finish to the season this weekend?
Friday 7/19, 8:05 PM ET
Massachusetts (-4.5) @ Tulsa
Over/Under 84.5
Moneyline: MASS -175, TUL +145
Friday night offers the first chance at solidifying the bottom half of the Eastern playoff picture as the Pirates travel to Tulsa, hoping for a victory over the Oilers to hang onto the third seed. That won’t change that they’ll be on the road in the opening round, but they’d be set to host a potential Eastern Final if they get through and the fourth seed (would be Quad City in this case) also stages a staggering upset. The Pirates are rested from last week’s bye, have had more preparation to focus in on just one opponent, and will welcome Isaac Zico back from his second stint on IR this season. Add in a matchup against the already eliminated Oilers, and it would seem like the flow is lining up for the Bay Staters to come out on top. I have a really funny feeling, though, that the Oilers could be a genuine threat in this matchup, just as they were when they came one point short of a gritty upset win at Lowell in the previous encounter. We took Tulsa at +4.5 last week, and we get the exact same handicap heading into this one. Back to the well we go; Oilers at home to cover.
The Pick: Tulsa +4.5 Spread, $13 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Pirates 44 – Oilers 41
LINE CHANGE: Prior to the evening Wager Wednesday live stream, we were able to lock this pick in at +4.5 backing the Oilers to cover. As of the 10:00pm show start time, the spread has gone down a point, to Tulsa +4. We luck out and get to grade this pick based on +4.5, so if the Pirates win by a four point margin, this will be a win for us rather than a push.
Saturday 7/20, 7:05 PM ET
Quad City (-4) @ Jacksonville
Over/Under 89.5
Moneyline: QC -175, JAX +145
If only the Sharks had stumbled upon Kaleb Barker before the 2024 season started! Since his addition three weeks ago, the Sharks have two outright wins, three consecutive covers, and no one in their right mind wants to face them at the moment despite their struggles earlier in the season. Quad City is actually in an interesting spot in this game because their playoff prospects will depend entirely on Massachusetts/Tulsa, which takes place on Friday. That means they will already know by Saturday's kickoff if they can still overtake the third seed. If the Pirates win, we’ll probably see the workloads scaled back for key contributors like Eddie Vander and Jarrod Harrington, while Mike Irwin figures to get the QB start after Judd Erickson suffered a nasty-looking injury in last week’s contest at Tulsa. And even if the Steamwheelers do have that upgraded seeding to play for, Jacksonville has proven the past few weeks were not a mirage. I said a few weeks earlier that the Sharks could be a sneaky contrarian pick, both straight up and against the spread, and I will put the money where my mouth is to prove it. Take the points in Duval.
The Pick: Jacksonville +4 Spread, $9 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Steamwheelers 45 – Sharks 44
Saturday 7/20, 7:05 PM ET
Arizona (-4) @ San Antonio
Over/Under 104.5
Moneyline: ARI -185, SA +154
The Western Conference’s equivalent of “Aspiring Playoff Contender vs. Scrappy Spoiler” for this week, the Rattlers gear up for their lone match against the rootin’ tootin’, ready for shootin’ Gunslingers, who I am convinced will be cheered upon by every IFL fan outside of the Phoenix/Glendale area to log a season-ending win, which could conceivably keep Arizona out of the playoffs for the first time since 2007 (Arizona has made 14 straight postseasons, including AFL era). The Guns have made all kinds of unique history in Year One in the IFL; to drag Arizona down in a “once-in-a-blue-moon” fashion would arguably be the biggest feather in the hat as far as accomplishments go. Both teams rank top-four in points scored and bottom-eight in points allowed, setting the scene for the game with the highest implied total of the week. To guide our selection here, we’ll lean on a trend that we’ve pointed out in a couple instances earlier this season. High implied point totals have tended to shift the odds of covering and winning considerably in favor of the underdog. If Sam Castronova and crew can escalate a full-on barrage against Arizona’s defense, their unrivaled offensive efficiency alone could propel them to this victory. With the odds-on favorite for IFL MVP receiving points on the spread (and also reportedly the farewell tour for kicker T.C. Stevens), we get a rare instance of where my heart and mind are aligned. In the words of the great Ralph Judkins, “Keep your Guns Up” with San Antonio spread!
The Pick: San Antonio +4 Spread, $11 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Rattlers 54 – Gunslingers 52
Saturday 7/20, 8:05 PM ET
Green Bay (-10.5) @ Sioux Falls
Over/Under 85.5
Moneyline: GB -450, SXF +300 [ESPNBet]
The Blizzard and Fighters will play their respective matchups simultaneously on Saturday night, and with the top Eastern seed still to be determined, I’m expecting nothing less than Green Bay’s finest effort to make that a reality with a statement win over the Storm in South Dakota. The relatively firm kick in the teeth the defense received from Jacksonville last week should help tune them up for this game and further prepare them for their push to a potential IFL Championship, which would be their first trophy in team history. This was perhaps the most surprising opening line that I saw this week, considering that Sioux Falls got unequivocally boat-raced by a down-bad Iowa team, where they lost by 11 and trailed by as many as 29. Even with the Storm back home, the handicap realistically should be closer to -13.5, which is as far as I would play this. This is also the second-best spread team (Blizzard at 10-5 ATS) versus the league’s worst spread team (Storm at 5-10 ATS). No trap line to be seen here, the road to Henderson will travel through the Resch for the Eastern contenders. Green Bay to close it out convincingly.
The Pick: Green Bay -10.5 Spread, $12 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Blizzard 53 – Storm 38
Saturday 7/20, 8:05 PM ET
Iowa @ Frisco (-16.5)
Over/Under 94.5
Moneyline: IOWA +475, FRI -800 [ESPNBet]
YouTube may experience serious bandwidth issues attempting to cover the Fighters’ season finale at Comerica Center on Saturday night. The electric news coming out of the Twitter-verse (the X-verse now?) is that viral social media sensation Eli Mack will be set to make his professional debut for Frisco on Saturday, with some snaps at defense and perhaps special teams in store for the former South Florida Bull. Even with that glitzy headliner stealing the show, the Fighters still need to beat the Barnstormers – and hope for an act of divine intervention in Sioux Falls – to steal away the top seed. Frisco has logged at least 49 points in every game since Week 12, while Iowa’s defense has regressed hard, allowing no fewer than 54 points in each of their last four. Despite that alarming defensive dropoff, I’m still at least a shade tempted to take the truckload of points with the Barnstormers here, and while Brandon Alt showed flashes of his potential ceiling last week (six touchdowns and no turnovers), Frisco’s still a seasoned defense to where I have to hold concern about those mistakes popping up again. We should have a pretty solid tempo to this one, offering ample opportunity for both teams to rack up the points, and the combatants are 11-4 (Frisco) and 9-6 (Iowa) to the Over this season. That is the direction we will take here, not to mention the minimally far-fetched conspiracy theory of the league scripting a flashy high-scoring affair in front of what should be the biggest audience ever for an IFL game on YouTube. Play Iowa/Frisco to blast by this total!
The Pick: OVER 94.5, $8 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Fighters 57 – Barnstormers 42
Saturday 7/20, 9:05 PM ET
Tucson @ Vegas (-13.5)
Over/Under 88.5
Moneyline: TUC +380, VGS -600 [ESPNBet]
Celebrations in the desert have already begun, with Vegas playoff-bound for the first time in franchise history thanks to last week’s win at Northern Arizona. Currently, they sit at the third seed in the West, with a chance to slide back into a home playoff game with a win against the 2-13 Sugar Skulls (plus a San Diego loss against Bay Area). With those stakes in mind, expect the full arsenal from the Knight Hawk attack, while Tucson’s constant shuffling of the deck will conclude with this outing, which could feature their ninth different starting quarterback of this season by the time we get to Saturday. All season, we’ve been searching for some strand of consistency in our Tucson picks this season. At long last, on the league’s final week, the answer may be staring us dead in the face. Get ready for this crazy trend; every Tucson game since Mylik Mitchell’s departure after Week 11 has gone Under. That’s seven consecutive contests – you could have started that stretch with a $10 bet, rolled all the winnings into the following games, and you’d be entering this week with an overflowing $925 budget in your wallet. Simply jaw-dropping. That stat is literally screaming at me to take this under, and that’s precisely my play. After all, what left is there to lose, besides yet another Sugar Skulls bet?
The Pick: UNDER 88.5, $8 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Knight Hawks 48 – Sugar Skulls 34
Saturday 7/20, 9:05 PM ET
Bay Area @ San Diego (-3)
Over/Under 88.5
Moneyline: BAY +124, SD -148
The selection for this game is going to depend largely on the viewpoints of each individual bettor regarding how they interpret the Panthers’ game plan for Saturday’s “Battle of California Part IV” with San Diego. As for my thoughts, I’m expecting Felix Harper to draw this start and play the whole game, offering a chance to rest for Daquan Neal and perhaps feature back “Sugar” Shane Simpson. The offensive ceiling might get lowered a notch as a result, but I foresee very little to change from the defensive philosophy and personnel. After all, there’s still in-state bragging rights to play for! Interestingly, the Strike Force (who are a league-best 10-4-1 ATS) covered in each of the prior three meetings this season, but this will be the first time where they give points to Bay Area on the spread. And the only other time the Panthers were made the underdog three weeks ago, they won outright in Vegas. Plus, there’s going to be a hint of revenge factor on Bay Area’s side, since the last matchup involved San Diego upsetting the Panthers at SAP Center. Take the points on the California Cats.
The Pick: Bay Area +3 Spread, $11 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Strike Force 44 – Panthers 42
Sunday 7/21, 5:05 PM ET
Northern Arizona (-10) @ Duke City
Over/Under 94.5
Moneyline: NAZ -450, DUKE +300 [ESPNBet]
As was the situation we encountered last year, the regular season’s final game will be a standalone Sunday game involving the Duke City Gladiators, whose opponent’s playoff fate will be decided by action that will have taken place prior to their kickoff. If the Rattlers take out the Gunslingers on Saturday, this game will not matter for the Wranglers, which makes it very tricky to confidently lock a pick in several nights earlier. In that scenario, it could be plausible to see a potential split in quarterback duties between OROY favorite Josh Jones and sparsely-used backup Dillon Sterling-Cole. That strategy has been adopted by the Gladiators in their past two games, with Hasan Rogers starting and Javin Kilgo mixing in later in those outings. Wranglers Overs have been blazing hot since the Week 6 meeting against Duke City at 7-4, including last week’s game that missed by a deuce at 101.5. That aforementioned Gladiators/Wranglers battle saw a combined point total of just 62 points, though, and if we do get a game sequence of both teams rotating at quarterback, that disruption of flow could adversely affect the quantity of scoring. And even if we get a “normal” game script, Duke City’s peskiness on defense and spotty consistency on offense gives me enough confidence for a second straight regular-season ending Under game.
The Pick: UNDER 94.5, $8 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Wranglers 46 – Gladiators 39
Recommended Three-Leg Parlay of the Week:
This is our last chance to grab our second parlay win of 2024! Pretty crushing to the soul to think about, to be honest, but we’re letting it all hang out on the line in the regular season finale! We’re going bold this week on a quintessential “what-the-heck” move, backing THREE underdogs outright to win! Do any of these legs kill the dream, or have we saved the long-awaited “Moneyline Magic” for the very end? If this Hail Mary cashes, we’ll actually wrap up 2024 with a net gain on the dollars despite just two parlay wins to show! We’ve seen crazier things happen in the IFL; why not this?!
1st leg: Massachusetts @ Tulsa – Oilers Moneyline (+145)
2nd leg: Arizona @ San Antonio – Gunslingers Moneyline (+154)
3rd leg: Bay Area @ San Diego – Panthers Moneyline (+124)
Total Odds: +1293 [$10.00 wager, Max Payout $139.39]
Here’s a look as well at the Futures market, for anyone seeking to lock in their pick now for the winner of the IFL Championship Game on August 17! Odds decreases from last week will be indicated in red, and increases in green.
Green Bay Blizzard: +225
Frisco Fighters: +300
Bay Area Panthers: +320
Vegas Knight Hawks: +750
San Diego Strike Force: +800
Arizona Rattlers: +1100
Massachusetts Pirates: +1100
Quad City Steamwheelers: +2500
Northern Arizona Wranglers: +3000
OFF THE BOARD: Tucson Sugar Skulls, Duke City Gladiators, Sioux Falls Storm, Jacksonville Sharks, Iowa Barnstormers, San Antonio Gunslingers, Tulsa Oilers
Don’t forget to tune in later this evening for my video coverage of Wager Wednesday, which can be found here. I will be attending a Pirates community outreach event this evening, but I expect to be back home in time to start up the live stream around 10pm ET/7pm PT on YouTube. If you’re free at that time, swing by if you have the chance!
Good luck to all you bettors out there; and let’s print out the big bucks!!
Welcome to Volume XXXIX of my Wager Wednesday series, in which I examine the current landscape of the upcoming week’s games, based on lines and odds from DraftKings Sportsbook (unless otherwise stated). As an advocate of accountability, I will recap my results - whether genius or moronic - from the prior week as well. With that, let's see how my picks from last week turned out:
• GB @ JAX – UNDER 89 [$19.09 flat win, $13.36 weighted win]
My younger sister will surely be the first to tell you this if she had the chance, but these bets do something terrible to my mental and emotional stability during the game and genuinely make me question what is fundamentally wrong with my overall well-being. The game itself was abundant in offensive efficiency but lagging behind in the tempo/number of possessions category, resulting in just 53 points through three quarters. Only a fourth quarter of 37 points (or possibly overtime) could have swiped this one away from us. Naturally, the tempo returned in a big way in the last 15 minutes, with the following string of possessions: FG, Safety, TD, TD, TD, TD, End of Game. That’s 34 lightning-fast points, and that “End of Game” possession involved the Blizzard trying to score not one, not two, not three, not four, but FIVE exasperating times when in all reality they could have take a knee from the beginning. Thank our lucky stars, no Blizzard player could cross the goal line before the expiration of time. In a spot that took quite literally every bead of sweat out of my being, the Blizzard nip the Sharks 45-42, while begrudgingly keeping the total sub-90 to cash our wager. Over/Under on number of neurological therapist visits I make within the next seven days has been set at 0.5.
• SXF @ IOWA – SXF +1.5 Spread [LOSS]
After a pair of discouraging, uncompetitive losses to the Rattlers (29 points) and Sharks (26 points), I’m sure a lot of eyes were turned by the fact that Iowa was set as the slight favorite for this game, but it sort of ended up as a “reverse trap line” if that makes any sense. Perhaps lost in that shuffle is a fact that we’ve pointed out in the past but didn’t really factor in our decision as much this time around, and that is the Storm’s brutal record on the spread (now an IFL-worst 5-10 ATS after this week). From the jump, there was no doubt about this one, with Iowa blasting ahead 26-3 before the Storm could get their footing underneath them. The lead skyrocketed as high as 29 points, and even a game-closing 16-0 run by the Storm came far too late. Backed by a six-touchdown, zero-turnover gem by Brandon Alt, the Barnstormers decisively silenced their critics and skeptics with a loud 65-54 win over the Storm.
• QC @ TUL – TUL +4.5 Spread [$19.09 flat win, $13.36 weighted win]
Holy smoke, am I glad that we locked this pick in when we did, because the pre-kick line plummeted all the way to Tulsa +2.5 right before kickoff! And wouldn’t you know it, that line shift mattered! The game was as competitive as advertised, low-scoring in the first half, and the largest lead of the game never reached more than six points. The lead changed hands ten times and truly went right down to the wire in the classic “who gets the ball last” game script. Down by three after what turned out to be a critical two-point conversion by the Oilers, the Steamwheelers needed at least a field goal to extend the game and a touchdown to win it. Once again, the hero would be Mike Irwin, filling in for an injured Judd Erickson on that game-deciding drive and barreling his way across the goal line for a three-yard touchdown that would serve as the game-winner. The Steamwheelers solidify the final spot in the Eastern Conference playoffs with the 39-35 win. Early birds on Oilers +4.5 were rewarded for locking in at the opening spread of 4.5 points. Anyone who waited and settled for +3 or +2.5 was out of luck.
• DUKE @ BAY – UNDER 85.5 [$19.09 flat win, $22.91 weighted win]
This is why we trust our numbers. This is why we go back to the well that historically has proven superbly profitable. Perhaps unsurprisingly, Duke City came out feisty to start this one; though it wasn’t the 17-0 opening run we’ve seen this team capable of, Duke City still trailed by a manageable 23-20 margin at halftime. 28 combined third quarter points left us just 14 points worth of room for error. An early goal-line stand by the Panthers to start the quarter was the first piece to fall into place, and the Panthers used the strength of their running game to annihilate a large chunk of the remaining clock. With five minutes left, the Gladiators could have crashed the party with a touchdown and two points. They got as close as Bay Area’s 15-yard line for that touchdown, but a pass from Javin Kilgo was tipped high and intercepted by Tyrone Cromwell, ending any threat of garbage time nonsense. It was as solid a showing from the Panthers as we have seen this season, an effort which helps them clinch home-turf advantage in defeating Duke City 50-28, staying below the lowest implied total of the week at 85.5.
• SA @ TUC – SA -345 Moneyline [$12.90 flat win, $23.22 weighted win]
Forgive my quasi-coarse language, but I friggin’ KNEW that the Skulls would pull some bull on me if I had gone with San Antonio -7.5! This one really hurts for anyone who backed the Guns on the spread, as they led this game by 26 points with just ten minutes remaining. Then the agonizing sequence that made this game appear closer than it really was: Tucson TD, Tucson onside kick recovery, Tucson TD, San Antonio turnover on downs, Tucson TD with 45 seconds left. 50 minutes of near-perfection for the Gunslingers, only to be undone by a pedestrian ten-minute finale allowing Tucson to pull off an improbable backdoor cover, which is at least the fourth time they’ve done that this season. We, however, went moneyline, so there was no real cause for concern despite the game-closing 20-0 run by Tucson. San Antonio gets above the .500 line with the 49-43 win over the Sugar Skulls. Notably, this is Tucson’s seventh consecutive game to stay below the point total.
• VGS @ NAZ – OVER 101.5 [LOSS]
In hindsight, this game really turned out to be a spitting image of Green Bay/Jacksonville as far as the O/U implications went. Both teams attempted to limit the opportunities for the other to score, leaving this game with just 58 points at the end of three quarters. Thanks to a favorable game script with the Wranglers chasing a 35-23 deficit, the combination of desperation from Northern Arizona and the resulting short fields from some onside kick attempts paved the way for six touchdowns in the game’s final 15 minutes. On the last possession of a 55-45 game, all we needed was one last NAZ touchdown to cash this over. Sadly, this drive would come up short, with multiple short-range endzone passes narrowly missing the mark resulting in a turnover on downs. The Knight Hawks clinch their first-ever playoff berth, avenging their prior defeat to the Wranglers, 55-45.
With the 9:00pm Saturday games finally deciding to play nice for a change, we were able to string together a pivotal winning week, gathering four winners compared to just two duds! Had Northern Arizona found the endzone late in their game against Vegas, this could have been 5-1! The end result shakes out to where we enter the last week of the regular season needing to make up just two games to drive our way back to an even record! Considering we were as far back as eight games down, this has been a fantastic stretch to give us an honest shot at leveling our record out, or perhaps ending up above! Our $60 budget for the week returned $70.17 for the flat method and $72.85 for the weighted method, resulting in a pair of net gains at $10.17 (flat) and $12.85 (weighted). Entering Week 19, our single-game record stands at 58-60-1, with year-to-date net loss marks standing at -$85.81 (flat) and -$95.65 (weighted). Despite the prolonged stretch of brutality this season, we are actually a very respectable 21-15-1 since Week 14, a firm indication that we are wrapping up this season on a high note!
The Three-Leg Parlay of the Week found no success in generating cash flow, with this being the second consecutive week – and eighth overall – where we were two-of-three correct and one painstaking leg away from greatness. The culprit this time was the usually reliable Green Bay spread leg; the Blizzard had to cover at 13.5 points (even though this line dropped to 12.5 prior to kickoff) and did not come particularly close to that mark, winning their contest against the Sharks by just three points. The hearty effort from the Sharks negated the other two shrewd selections of Quad City/Tulsa Under 88.5 (game combined for 74) and Knight Hawks +1 Spread (Vegas won by ten). The results leave us with one final chance at a regular season parlay win, with Week 10’s attempt as our only success so far. The net loss figure for parlays is elevated to -$115.02 and leaves us with an interesting decision to make an interesting decision for this week’s parlay: Do we “maximize” our chances of winning with a slip near our minimum odds of +400, or do we go gutsy and try for a Hail Mary longshot that could get us back to net gain? Read on to find out, I suppose!
Here we are, folks, it is the 19th and final week of the 2024 Regular Season! Every team is in action, with playoff seeding still left to be determined and the last Western Conference spot still up for grabs between Arizona and NAZ. The Wranglers may already know before their Sunday kick whether or not they’re still alive, as Arizona plays their game at San Antonio one night earlier. It makes for some interesting calls since we’re locking in picks tonight, a similar conundrum that we faced last year, with some games playing out differently depending on earlier results. Before we start making our picks for the games, here is a quick primer on the playoff clinching and seeding scenarios:
EASTERN CONFERENCE: TO DETERMINE SEEDS 1 AND 2
• Green Bay clinches #1 seed with WIN (at Sioux Falls) OR Frisco LOSS
• Frisco clinches #1 seed with WIN (vs. Iowa) AND Green Bay LOSS
EASTERN CONFERENCE: TO DETERMINE SEEDS 3 AND 4
• Massachusetts clinches #3 seed with WIN (at Tulsa) OR Quad City LOSS
• Quad City clinches #3 seed with WIN (at Jacksonville) AND Massachusetts LOSS
WESTERN CONFERENCE: TO DETERMINE FIRST-ROUND HOME GAME
• San Diego clinches #2 seed with WIN (vs. Bay Aera) OR [Vegas LOSS AND Arizona LOSS]
• Vegas clinches #2 seed with WIN (vs. Tucson) AND San Diego LOSS
• Arizona clinches #2 seed with WIN (at San Antonio) AND Vegas LOSS AND San Diego LOSS
WESTERN CONFERENCE: TO DETERMINE FINAL PLAYOFF SPOT AND SEEDING
• Arizona clinches playoff berth with WIN (at San Antonio) OR Northern Arizona LOSS
• Northern Arizona clinches playoff berth with WIN (at Duke City) AND Arizona LOSS
• NAZ can only earn #4 seed. Arizona, Vegas, and San Diego can earn #2, #3, or #4 seed
Now that we know what’s at stake and for whom, it’s time to take a look at the lines for these last eight regular season games! A winning week – barring possibility of any pushes – gets us at least to .500 on the slips; can we continue our strong finish to the season this weekend?
Friday 7/19, 8:05 PM ET
Massachusetts (-4.5) @ Tulsa
Over/Under 84.5
Moneyline: MASS -175, TUL +145
Friday night offers the first chance at solidifying the bottom half of the Eastern playoff picture as the Pirates travel to Tulsa, hoping for a victory over the Oilers to hang onto the third seed. That won’t change that they’ll be on the road in the opening round, but they’d be set to host a potential Eastern Final if they get through and the fourth seed (would be Quad City in this case) also stages a staggering upset. The Pirates are rested from last week’s bye, have had more preparation to focus in on just one opponent, and will welcome Isaac Zico back from his second stint on IR this season. Add in a matchup against the already eliminated Oilers, and it would seem like the flow is lining up for the Bay Staters to come out on top. I have a really funny feeling, though, that the Oilers could be a genuine threat in this matchup, just as they were when they came one point short of a gritty upset win at Lowell in the previous encounter. We took Tulsa at +4.5 last week, and we get the exact same handicap heading into this one. Back to the well we go; Oilers at home to cover.
The Pick: Tulsa +4.5 Spread, $13 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Pirates 44 – Oilers 41
LINE CHANGE: Prior to the evening Wager Wednesday live stream, we were able to lock this pick in at +4.5 backing the Oilers to cover. As of the 10:00pm show start time, the spread has gone down a point, to Tulsa +4. We luck out and get to grade this pick based on +4.5, so if the Pirates win by a four point margin, this will be a win for us rather than a push.
Saturday 7/20, 7:05 PM ET
Quad City (-4) @ Jacksonville
Over/Under 89.5
Moneyline: QC -175, JAX +145
If only the Sharks had stumbled upon Kaleb Barker before the 2024 season started! Since his addition three weeks ago, the Sharks have two outright wins, three consecutive covers, and no one in their right mind wants to face them at the moment despite their struggles earlier in the season. Quad City is actually in an interesting spot in this game because their playoff prospects will depend entirely on Massachusetts/Tulsa, which takes place on Friday. That means they will already know by Saturday's kickoff if they can still overtake the third seed. If the Pirates win, we’ll probably see the workloads scaled back for key contributors like Eddie Vander and Jarrod Harrington, while Mike Irwin figures to get the QB start after Judd Erickson suffered a nasty-looking injury in last week’s contest at Tulsa. And even if the Steamwheelers do have that upgraded seeding to play for, Jacksonville has proven the past few weeks were not a mirage. I said a few weeks earlier that the Sharks could be a sneaky contrarian pick, both straight up and against the spread, and I will put the money where my mouth is to prove it. Take the points in Duval.
The Pick: Jacksonville +4 Spread, $9 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Steamwheelers 45 – Sharks 44
Saturday 7/20, 7:05 PM ET
Arizona (-4) @ San Antonio
Over/Under 104.5
Moneyline: ARI -185, SA +154
The Western Conference’s equivalent of “Aspiring Playoff Contender vs. Scrappy Spoiler” for this week, the Rattlers gear up for their lone match against the rootin’ tootin’, ready for shootin’ Gunslingers, who I am convinced will be cheered upon by every IFL fan outside of the Phoenix/Glendale area to log a season-ending win, which could conceivably keep Arizona out of the playoffs for the first time since 2007 (Arizona has made 14 straight postseasons, including AFL era). The Guns have made all kinds of unique history in Year One in the IFL; to drag Arizona down in a “once-in-a-blue-moon” fashion would arguably be the biggest feather in the hat as far as accomplishments go. Both teams rank top-four in points scored and bottom-eight in points allowed, setting the scene for the game with the highest implied total of the week. To guide our selection here, we’ll lean on a trend that we’ve pointed out in a couple instances earlier this season. High implied point totals have tended to shift the odds of covering and winning considerably in favor of the underdog. If Sam Castronova and crew can escalate a full-on barrage against Arizona’s defense, their unrivaled offensive efficiency alone could propel them to this victory. With the odds-on favorite for IFL MVP receiving points on the spread (and also reportedly the farewell tour for kicker T.C. Stevens), we get a rare instance of where my heart and mind are aligned. In the words of the great Ralph Judkins, “Keep your Guns Up” with San Antonio spread!
The Pick: San Antonio +4 Spread, $11 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Rattlers 54 – Gunslingers 52
Saturday 7/20, 8:05 PM ET
Green Bay (-10.5) @ Sioux Falls
Over/Under 85.5
Moneyline: GB -450, SXF +300 [ESPNBet]
The Blizzard and Fighters will play their respective matchups simultaneously on Saturday night, and with the top Eastern seed still to be determined, I’m expecting nothing less than Green Bay’s finest effort to make that a reality with a statement win over the Storm in South Dakota. The relatively firm kick in the teeth the defense received from Jacksonville last week should help tune them up for this game and further prepare them for their push to a potential IFL Championship, which would be their first trophy in team history. This was perhaps the most surprising opening line that I saw this week, considering that Sioux Falls got unequivocally boat-raced by a down-bad Iowa team, where they lost by 11 and trailed by as many as 29. Even with the Storm back home, the handicap realistically should be closer to -13.5, which is as far as I would play this. This is also the second-best spread team (Blizzard at 10-5 ATS) versus the league’s worst spread team (Storm at 5-10 ATS). No trap line to be seen here, the road to Henderson will travel through the Resch for the Eastern contenders. Green Bay to close it out convincingly.
The Pick: Green Bay -10.5 Spread, $12 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Blizzard 53 – Storm 38
Saturday 7/20, 8:05 PM ET
Iowa @ Frisco (-16.5)
Over/Under 94.5
Moneyline: IOWA +475, FRI -800 [ESPNBet]
YouTube may experience serious bandwidth issues attempting to cover the Fighters’ season finale at Comerica Center on Saturday night. The electric news coming out of the Twitter-verse (the X-verse now?) is that viral social media sensation Eli Mack will be set to make his professional debut for Frisco on Saturday, with some snaps at defense and perhaps special teams in store for the former South Florida Bull. Even with that glitzy headliner stealing the show, the Fighters still need to beat the Barnstormers – and hope for an act of divine intervention in Sioux Falls – to steal away the top seed. Frisco has logged at least 49 points in every game since Week 12, while Iowa’s defense has regressed hard, allowing no fewer than 54 points in each of their last four. Despite that alarming defensive dropoff, I’m still at least a shade tempted to take the truckload of points with the Barnstormers here, and while Brandon Alt showed flashes of his potential ceiling last week (six touchdowns and no turnovers), Frisco’s still a seasoned defense to where I have to hold concern about those mistakes popping up again. We should have a pretty solid tempo to this one, offering ample opportunity for both teams to rack up the points, and the combatants are 11-4 (Frisco) and 9-6 (Iowa) to the Over this season. That is the direction we will take here, not to mention the minimally far-fetched conspiracy theory of the league scripting a flashy high-scoring affair in front of what should be the biggest audience ever for an IFL game on YouTube. Play Iowa/Frisco to blast by this total!
The Pick: OVER 94.5, $8 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Fighters 57 – Barnstormers 42
Saturday 7/20, 9:05 PM ET
Tucson @ Vegas (-13.5)
Over/Under 88.5
Moneyline: TUC +380, VGS -600 [ESPNBet]
Celebrations in the desert have already begun, with Vegas playoff-bound for the first time in franchise history thanks to last week’s win at Northern Arizona. Currently, they sit at the third seed in the West, with a chance to slide back into a home playoff game with a win against the 2-13 Sugar Skulls (plus a San Diego loss against Bay Area). With those stakes in mind, expect the full arsenal from the Knight Hawk attack, while Tucson’s constant shuffling of the deck will conclude with this outing, which could feature their ninth different starting quarterback of this season by the time we get to Saturday. All season, we’ve been searching for some strand of consistency in our Tucson picks this season. At long last, on the league’s final week, the answer may be staring us dead in the face. Get ready for this crazy trend; every Tucson game since Mylik Mitchell’s departure after Week 11 has gone Under. That’s seven consecutive contests – you could have started that stretch with a $10 bet, rolled all the winnings into the following games, and you’d be entering this week with an overflowing $925 budget in your wallet. Simply jaw-dropping. That stat is literally screaming at me to take this under, and that’s precisely my play. After all, what left is there to lose, besides yet another Sugar Skulls bet?
The Pick: UNDER 88.5, $8 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Knight Hawks 48 – Sugar Skulls 34
Saturday 7/20, 9:05 PM ET
Bay Area @ San Diego (-3)
Over/Under 88.5
Moneyline: BAY +124, SD -148
The selection for this game is going to depend largely on the viewpoints of each individual bettor regarding how they interpret the Panthers’ game plan for Saturday’s “Battle of California Part IV” with San Diego. As for my thoughts, I’m expecting Felix Harper to draw this start and play the whole game, offering a chance to rest for Daquan Neal and perhaps feature back “Sugar” Shane Simpson. The offensive ceiling might get lowered a notch as a result, but I foresee very little to change from the defensive philosophy and personnel. After all, there’s still in-state bragging rights to play for! Interestingly, the Strike Force (who are a league-best 10-4-1 ATS) covered in each of the prior three meetings this season, but this will be the first time where they give points to Bay Area on the spread. And the only other time the Panthers were made the underdog three weeks ago, they won outright in Vegas. Plus, there’s going to be a hint of revenge factor on Bay Area’s side, since the last matchup involved San Diego upsetting the Panthers at SAP Center. Take the points on the California Cats.
The Pick: Bay Area +3 Spread, $11 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Strike Force 44 – Panthers 42
Sunday 7/21, 5:05 PM ET
Northern Arizona (-10) @ Duke City
Over/Under 94.5
Moneyline: NAZ -450, DUKE +300 [ESPNBet]
As was the situation we encountered last year, the regular season’s final game will be a standalone Sunday game involving the Duke City Gladiators, whose opponent’s playoff fate will be decided by action that will have taken place prior to their kickoff. If the Rattlers take out the Gunslingers on Saturday, this game will not matter for the Wranglers, which makes it very tricky to confidently lock a pick in several nights earlier. In that scenario, it could be plausible to see a potential split in quarterback duties between OROY favorite Josh Jones and sparsely-used backup Dillon Sterling-Cole. That strategy has been adopted by the Gladiators in their past two games, with Hasan Rogers starting and Javin Kilgo mixing in later in those outings. Wranglers Overs have been blazing hot since the Week 6 meeting against Duke City at 7-4, including last week’s game that missed by a deuce at 101.5. That aforementioned Gladiators/Wranglers battle saw a combined point total of just 62 points, though, and if we do get a game sequence of both teams rotating at quarterback, that disruption of flow could adversely affect the quantity of scoring. And even if we get a “normal” game script, Duke City’s peskiness on defense and spotty consistency on offense gives me enough confidence for a second straight regular-season ending Under game.
The Pick: UNDER 94.5, $8 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Wranglers 46 – Gladiators 39
Recommended Three-Leg Parlay of the Week:
This is our last chance to grab our second parlay win of 2024! Pretty crushing to the soul to think about, to be honest, but we’re letting it all hang out on the line in the regular season finale! We’re going bold this week on a quintessential “what-the-heck” move, backing THREE underdogs outright to win! Do any of these legs kill the dream, or have we saved the long-awaited “Moneyline Magic” for the very end? If this Hail Mary cashes, we’ll actually wrap up 2024 with a net gain on the dollars despite just two parlay wins to show! We’ve seen crazier things happen in the IFL; why not this?!
1st leg: Massachusetts @ Tulsa – Oilers Moneyline (+145)
2nd leg: Arizona @ San Antonio – Gunslingers Moneyline (+154)
3rd leg: Bay Area @ San Diego – Panthers Moneyline (+124)
Total Odds: +1293 [$10.00 wager, Max Payout $139.39]
Here’s a look as well at the Futures market, for anyone seeking to lock in their pick now for the winner of the IFL Championship Game on August 17! Odds decreases from last week will be indicated in red, and increases in green.
Green Bay Blizzard: +225
Frisco Fighters: +300
Bay Area Panthers: +320
Vegas Knight Hawks: +750
San Diego Strike Force: +800
Arizona Rattlers: +1100
Massachusetts Pirates: +1100
Quad City Steamwheelers: +2500
Northern Arizona Wranglers: +3000
OFF THE BOARD: Tucson Sugar Skulls, Duke City Gladiators, Sioux Falls Storm, Jacksonville Sharks, Iowa Barnstormers, San Antonio Gunslingers, Tulsa Oilers
Don’t forget to tune in later this evening for my video coverage of Wager Wednesday, which can be found here. I will be attending a Pirates community outreach event this evening, but I expect to be back home in time to start up the live stream around 10pm ET/7pm PT on YouTube. If you’re free at that time, swing by if you have the chance!
Good luck to all you bettors out there; and let’s print out the big bucks!!