Post by alecs on Apr 24, 2024 8:30:28 GMT -8
Happy Wednesday, IFL Fans!
Welcome to Volume XXVII of my “Wager Wednesday” bit, in which I examine the current landscape of the upcoming week’s games, based on lines and odds from DraftKings Sportsbook (unless otherwise stated). As an advocate of accountability, I will recap my results - whether genius or moronic - from the prior week as well. With that, let's see how my picks from last week turned out:
• TUC @ SA – OVER 104.5 [Loss]
The reflection on this wager exemplifies why betting an over at triple digits carries more risk than we’d like to think – even involving teams like Tucson and San Antonio whose styles cater to high-scoring football. For starters, Tucson was without starting QB Mylik Mitchell (undisclosed), a development of which fans had no knowledge until right before kickoff. And with San Antonio dominating by halftime, they preferred a clock-killing game script the rest of the way, leaving each team with just nine possessions each and thus very little room for empty possessions (teams typically get 10 to 12 possessions per game). Under normal circumstances, this probably remains the right play, but we didn’t get that really at all. Congrats to the Gunslingers for recording their first IFL win, sending the Sugar Skulls packing, 60-36. 96 points is still a lot for a game with this sort of flow, but not enough to cash for us.
• SXF @ GB – GB -7 Spread [$19.09 flat win, $22.91 weighted win]
This was a very entertaining game, as most Storm/Blizzard matchups turn out to be. The Storm held their ground throughout the first half, trailing the Blizzard by just seven at the half. Green Bay would maintain that one-to-two score advantage throughout the second half, yet the bet had to be settled on Sioux Falls’ final drive of the game, at which point they trailed by 13, and a touchdown plus PAT would have been a backdoor cover to send this slip to the losing bin. Instead, Green Bay logged a key sack with Sioux Falls in the redzone, which ran out the rest of the clock and ensured victory. The Blizzard advance to 3-1 with the win in the rivalry game, 48-35.
• VGS @ JAX – VGS -10.5 Spread [$19.09 flat win, $15.27 weighted win]
Vegas spent Saturday night in Duval keeping up the scorching efficiency on offense that has propelled them to their hot start, but Jacksonville may have found something in new quarterback Fred Payton, Jr., who shot new life into the Sharks offense throughout the first half. Eventually, the Knight Hawk defense adjusted and never allowed a fourth quarter point, which paved the way for what turned out to be a fairly easy cover. The Knight Hawks once again looked every bit the part of a title contender by silencing the Sharks, 61-35.
• ARI @ IOWA – ARI -7 Spread [Loss]
Chalk this one up as a Bad Beat, as the Barnstormers nearly erased a deficit as large as 21 points and almost stole this game away. Just like in Sioux Falls/Green Bay, Arizona kept themselves ahead by seven to fourteen points for the majority of this game, until a defensive stand early in the fourth quarter helped get Iowa back to within two points. Arizona responded with a quick touchdown to go back up by nine, but with 1:30 left in the fourth, Kyle King provided the Iowa touchdown that would serve as the backdoor cover play. Arizona ran out the clock after securing the onside kick attempt, preserving their closer-than-comfort two point win over Iowa, 49-47.
• FRI @ TUL – TUL +7 Spread [Loss]
Sheesh. The one time I veer away from the Fighters, they decide to play God again in what a lot of people were expecting to be a competitive game. After dazzling in last week’s gem against Sioux Falls, Tulsa simply had no answers, falling behind by a baffling 40-10 margin by halftime. Not even a 15-0 run to start the second half could sustain enough momentum for the Oilers, as a seven-touchdown masterclass from T.J. Edwards would prove too much. At Country Cannabis Field on 4/20, Frisco smoked Tulsa out of their own building, 60-32.
• MASS @ QC – QC +9.5 Spread [$19.09 flat win, $28.64 weighted win]
Well, the infamous Pirates road spread drought continues for at least another week, and it will surely be a talking point until Massachusetts can prove otherwise. The Steamwheelers set out with something to prove and showed it in taking a 14-0 lead after one quarter of play. The scrappy Pirates fought back to tie the game at 23 in the third quarter, but ultimately Quad City’s offense, particularly the rushing game led by Eddie Vander, propelled not just the cover, but the outright win. Quad City earns an important second win of the season, robbing the Pirates of perfection on a 54-43 win. With this game, Massachusetts is now 0-for-11 all-time in covering spreads in games outside of the Bay State.
• SD @ BAY – SD +275 Moneyline [Loss]
We got soooo very close on this one! After a slow start that saw Rudy Johnson pulled in favor of Nate Davis, the Strike Force trailed the Panthers by as many as 16 points, but were able to stop Felix Harper on a couple fourth quarter drives that contributed to a fierce comeback, one that saw them take a three-point lead with roughly four minutes to go. The defense even forced a pair of high-pressure fourth downs on the final drive, which Bay Area converted on both. In the end, Harper would scramble for the go-ahead touchdown with 13 seconds remaining. All the Strike Force could do at that point was attempt a 50-yard field goal and try to force overtime. Stevie Artigue’s kick had the right line, but did not have enough leg and came up short. The Panthers escape with victory, staying perfect in prevailing over the Strike Force, 53-50. Notably, the two teams go for an immediate rematch this week at Pechanga Arena.
• DUKE @ NAZ – OVER 90.5 [Loss]
Not-So-Fun Fact: We chose two Over bets this week, this game and Tucson/San Antonio. They were the only two games of the entire weekend to fail to reach their point totals. The chances of incorrectly picking the point total on those two games specifically comes out to about 3.5%. As for the Gladiators/Wranglers game, there were just way too many turnovers, with the teams combining for six giveaways in total. And just like Sugar Skulls/Gunslingers, one team (Duke City) was without its predominant starting QB (Javin Kilgo), instead seeing Geremy Hickbottom take most of the QB snaps on Saturday night. The Wranglers dialed it back to the 2022-23 days, with a stifling defensive effort paving the way to a 39-23 victory. That adds up to 62 total points, far too short of the 90.5 we needed.
Week 6 turns out to be a down week for Wager Wednesday, with some more rough luck resulting in just three wins compared to five losses. Our overall record now stands at 15-18 through Week 6, leaving us with a challenging task of climbing out of this funk. Starting with an $80 budget, the flat method returned $57.27 from the three winning wagers, while the weighted method fared better in pulling back $66.82. Week 6 net loss for the flat method was -$22.73, and -$13.18 for the weighted method. For the entire season to date, the flat method stands with $43.22 of net loss (-13.10% ROI), and the weighted method stands with $33.58 of net loss (-10.18% ROI). Our picks started to catch fire around this time last year, so I remain very optimistic that a rebound is imminent. Especially if we hit a wave of even moderately average luck along the way.
No such luck for the Three-Leg Parlay of Week 6, keeping us without a single parlay win all season. If there’s any silver lining, it’s that any suspense was shot down immediately with San Antonio’s spanking of Tucson on Thursday night (We took Sugar Skulls at -4.5). The only correct selection was the “easiest” of the three (Green Bay moneyline at -265), and Frisco/Tulsa exceeded 85.5 points, to which we bet the Under. Eight of the 15 individual legs to date have been correct, but we’re still looking for three straight on the same week. After five attempts at $10 apiece, the parlay tracker currently sits at $50 of net loss. Again, all we need is one quick win and it gets pretty close to even. Here’s to hoping that success comes this week!
Week 7 gives fans a second consecutive week with all 16 teams suiting up! It’s an immediate shot at redemption for our first true winning week since Week 3, which seems like it was forever ago! The schedule calls for two games on Friday and three apiece on Saturday and Sunday. The sledding has been aggravatingly rough through six weeks; will we find a way to smooth things out with an abundance of winning picks? It is Lucky Week 7 after all, so that should apply to us! Let’s look at the lines!
Friday 4/26, 7:05 PM ET
Iowa @ Green Bay (-11.5)
Over/Under 77.5
Moneyline: <NONE>
Some classic Friday Night Football in Blizz-town, and a fine opportunity for the Blizzard to continue their torrid start to the season, facing off for the second time already against the Iowa Barnstormers, who are still stuck in the mud at 0-4. Iowa’s found some solid life on offense since rookie quarterback Kyle King took the wheel two weeks ago, guiding the Barnstormers to a nice 69 points since the second half of the Massachusetts game – a stretch spanning six quarters of play. The caveat is that the second half in Lowell was essentially all mop-up duty with the game’s outcome already decided, and Iowa's game last week further exposed an unusually leaky Arizona defense. Expect a sizable jump in difficulty facing the Blizzard’s elite defense. Very interesting number for the spread, as it’s just the half-point hook more than the margin of Green Bay’s victory back in the season opener (11 points). If Green Bay can dictate their game script that makes them so hard to play against, I don’t imagine we’ll need any more than the mid-40’s from them to feel good about this pick. Lay it with the Blizzard to stay perfect against the handicap.
The Pick: Green Bay -11.5 Spread, $12 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Blizzard 45 – Barnstormers 30
LINE CHANGE: The Total for this game has jumped up by a field goal, standing at 80.5 effective Friday 4/26 at 6:00pm ET.
Friday 4/26, 8:30 PM ET
San Antonio @ Frisco (-16.5)
Over/Under 102.5
Moneyline: <NONE>
After their strongest win of the season last week in Tulsa, the Fighters head back home to welcome their in-state rival San Antonio Gunslingers for the first of two straight editions of “The Texas Tussle”. Talk about that for a reward for San Antonio’s first IFL win last week. Frisco’s defense, which has yet to surrender more than 40 points in a game this season, will face a massive challenge going up against Sam Castronova’s Gunslingers, operating as a top-3 offensive unit despite the 1-3 record to show. This game feels awfully similar to last year’s Strike Force at Fighters matchup, which also pitted the offensively-gifted visitors as 16.5-point underdogs. That’s too much wiggle room to give an offense as deadly as San Antonio’s. Regardless of the game’s tempo, logically if San Antonio limits their number of empty possessions to two or fewer, taking the points with the dog likely holds up as the choice to make. And it’s so hard to bet against Castronova and gang right now, especially if they start this game “guns blazing.” Play Guns on the points.
The Pick: San Antonio +16.5 Spread, $9 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Fighters 55 – Gunslingers 45
LINE CHANGE: The Spread has changed from SA +16.5 to SA +14, effective Friday 4/26 at 6:00pm ET.
Saturday 4/27, 7:05 PM ET
Duke City @ Vegas (-16.5)
Over/Under 86.5
Moneyline: <NONE>
Duke City attempts to rebound after a fourth straight loss at NAZ to begin their season, but will run into a buzzsaw in Henderson taking on a Knight Hawk team that’s on absolute fire right now. At nearly 53 points per game, the Knight Hawks are 1st in the IFL in scoring per game and have scored a touchdown on an absurd 18 (!) straight possessions. If Duke City is to somehow make this a game, their path likely involves matching Vegas possession for possession. That will be predicated on the Glads avoiding turnovers and empty drives, both of which have hurt them all season long. Duke City will have to clean that up and crank up the execution level in a hurry if they want any shot at saving their season, and if Vegas continues on their unstoppable track, they could get to 60 all on their own. Overs are 11-3 in the past two weeks, and this game sets up well to add to that landslide advantage.
The Pick: OVER 86.5, $8 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Knight Hawks 56 – Gladiators 34
Saturday 4/27, 8:05 PM ET* [Game to be held at Scheels Arena in Fargo, ND]
Massachusetts (-10) vs. Sioux Falls
Over/Under 88.5
Moneyline: <NONE>
Perhaps the most anticipated game of the week due to its novelty factor, the Massachusetts Pirates and Sioux Falls Storm will participate in the Fargo IFL Gridiron Classic at Scheels Arena, the future home of the Dakota Bucks (formerly Bismarck Bucks), who are on tap to resume play next spring after a state legislation issue forced the team into dormancy after the 2022 season. With the unique neutral site environment, this technically does not identify as a “road” game for the Pirates, where the broken record inside me must mention the ongoing 0-for-11 skid for the Pirates on the road ATS. In my mind, if the game is outside The Commonwealth, then it’s close enough. Something will have to give in this matchup, however, as Sioux Falls is the only winless ATS team left in the league, sporting an 0-4 record both straight up and on the spread. Just as we did last week with great success, let’s go with banking on the longer of the two streaks dragging on and take the double-digit points with Sioux Falls. Will be interesting if the Storm decide to start Billy Hall or the returning Lorenzo Brown at quarterback.
The Pick: Sioux Falls +10 Spread, $15 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Pirates 45 – Storm 39
Saturday 4/27, 9:05 PM ET
Northern Arizona (-5.5) @ Tucson
Over/Under 92.5
Moneyline: NAZ -185, TUC +154
The second of three meetings this season between these two bitter in-state rivals, the home Sugar Skulls sit at 1-3 and risk falling further behind in the Western Conference if they drop this game to the Wranglers, who are already at 3-1. Tucson should have Mylik Mitchell back for this game after Torrance Gibson drew the surprise start last Thursday, while Josh Jones, RZ McCorker, and the rest of the Wranglers should be well-rested after coasting to a fairly easy Saturday night win against Duke City. The Sugar Skull defense, usually vaunted in years past, has been gashed so far for 51.8 points per game (Only San Antonio is worse, at 57.0 ppg against). As in the prior meeting, NAZ should have little trouble moving the ball, which leaves their high-upside defense to come up with a few positive plays of their own. I like the chances of seeing that prediction through, and I love this number at less than six for the visiting Wranglers.
The Pick: Northern Arizona -5.5 Spread, $11 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Wranglers 54 – Sugar Skulls 43
Sunday 4/28, 4:05 PM ET
Tulsa @ Quad City (-7)
Over/Under 82.5
Moneyline: TUL +230, QC -285
Both these squads enter this game at 2-2 and off surprising results from a week ago. Tulsa fell flat in a 28-point loss at home to Frisco, while Quad City dealt a previously unbeaten Pirates team its first defeat of the season. The Steamwheelers will have every bit of motivation to get back at the Oilers, who robbed Quad City of a home playoff game last year in the season finale. Last week, we saw these teams at their respective ceiling (QC) and floor (TUL), and I sense that this could be a regression to the mean type of game that pulls this one fairly close when all is said and done. For that reason, I’m willing to issue a “Get Out of Jail Free” card to the Oilers after last week’s shocking setback, banking on their ability to bounce back and perhaps catch a high-riding Steamwheelers team by surprise. Tulsa at a 42% win probability in my model and absolutely worth a play at delightful +230 odds. Need to start casting our underdog net a little wider as we get deeper into the season, and this is a fine upset pick to get that motive kickstarted.
The Pick: Tulsa +230 Moneyline, $6 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Steamwheelers 42 – Oilers 39
Sunday 4/28, 6:05 PM ET
Jacksonville @ Arizona (-13.5)
Over/Under 81.5
Moneyline: <NONE>
The Sharks and Rattlers, who competed against one another in ArenaBowl XXIV in 2011, are set to meet for the first time as IFL teams on Sunday. It will also be their first meeting overall since July 9, 2016, when both were still members of the AFL. Jacksonville made some wholesale changes leading up to last week’s loss against Vegas, but the new-look offense looked solid at times, with Fred Payton, Jr. under center helping Jacksonville attain a new season-high in points (35) against a terrific Knight Hawk defense. He should continue to build on that opening act on Sunday, facing an underwhelming Rattlers defense surrendering the fourth most points per game (46.8) in the IFL. Meanwhile, Arizona has been as consistent offensively as any team in the league, with at least 43 points in all four games so far, even with cycling between Garrett Kettle and the now-departed Lorenzo Brown during that span. This ain’t the classic Aaron Garcia versus Nick Davila matchup of yesteryear, but it still points to a decent shot for at least high 30’s output from each team. Play Sharks/Rattlers “Over”.
The Pick: OVER 81.5, $12 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Rattlers 49 – Sharks 38
LINE CHANGE: The Total for this game got bumped up by a deuce, increasing to 83.5 effective Saturday 4/27 at 6:40pm ET.
Sunday 4/28, 6:05 PM ET
Bay Area (-3) @ San Diego
Over/Under 94.5
Moneyline: BAY -148, SD +124
In the words of fictional weatherman Phil Connors, “Well, it’s Groundhog Day. Again.” In a rare instance of the true home-and-home series in pro football, Bay Area and San Diego face off in an immediate grudge match after providing fans with a “Game of the Year” candidate just last weekend at SAP Center. This time, Pechanga Arena will host, and the Strike Force are hoping the home-turf provides the advantage needed to exact revenge on the Panthers and send them to their first loss. Nate Davis was healthy enough to get back into action last Saturday, and his return boosted the Strike Force from down as many as 16 to leading by three points late in last week’s game. And even at 4-0, Bay Area finds itself with a QB decision to make between Daquan Neal and Felix Harper, as the two have split time in the past few outings. Like the aforementioned 1993 film, same matchup yields same prediction: Plus-odds underdog for the outright win. Let’s hope we get the different ending this time around, too!
The Pick: San Diego +124 Moneyline, $7 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Panthers 47 – Strike Force 45
Recommended Three-Leg Parlay of the Week:
Netting a parlay victory has proven to be a challenge to start the 2024 season, but we are right back on the saddle ready to craft up another attempt. Minimum total odds of +400 still apply, and very few moneyline games are available for the classic “see it go through the hoop” leg possibilities, so our creativity will be put to the test. Here’s to hoping this triad snaps the drought:
1st leg: Iowa @ Green Bay – OVER 77.5 (-110)
2nd leg: Massachusetts vs. Sioux Falls – UNDER 88.5 (-110)
3rd leg: Bay Area @ San Diego – Strike Force +3 Spread (-110)
Total Odds: +595 [$10.00 wager, Max Payout $69.57]
Here’s a look as well at the Futures market, for anyone seeking to predict the winner of the 2024 IFL Championship Game (August 17th) well in advance! Odds decreases from last week will be indicated in red, and increases in green.
Bay Area Panthers: +280
Frisco Fighters: +330
Massachusetts Pirates: +475
Vegas Knight Hawks: +500
San Diego Strike Force: +750
Arizona Rattlers: +750
Northern Arizona Wranglers: +1400
Green Bay Blizzard: +1500
Quad City Steamwheelers: +1800
Tucson Sugar Skulls: +2000
San Antonio Gunslingers: +2500
Tulsa Oilers: +3000
Sioux Falls Storm: +4500
Jacksonville Sharks: +5000
Duke City Gladiators: +5000
Iowa Barnstormers: +5000
Don’t forget to tune in later this evening for my video coverage of Wager Wednesday, which can be found here. Again, I’ll be going live at around 10pm ET/7pm PT, so swing by if you have the chance!
Good luck to all you bettors out there; and let’s print out the big bucks!!
Welcome to Volume XXVII of my “Wager Wednesday” bit, in which I examine the current landscape of the upcoming week’s games, based on lines and odds from DraftKings Sportsbook (unless otherwise stated). As an advocate of accountability, I will recap my results - whether genius or moronic - from the prior week as well. With that, let's see how my picks from last week turned out:
• TUC @ SA – OVER 104.5 [Loss]
The reflection on this wager exemplifies why betting an over at triple digits carries more risk than we’d like to think – even involving teams like Tucson and San Antonio whose styles cater to high-scoring football. For starters, Tucson was without starting QB Mylik Mitchell (undisclosed), a development of which fans had no knowledge until right before kickoff. And with San Antonio dominating by halftime, they preferred a clock-killing game script the rest of the way, leaving each team with just nine possessions each and thus very little room for empty possessions (teams typically get 10 to 12 possessions per game). Under normal circumstances, this probably remains the right play, but we didn’t get that really at all. Congrats to the Gunslingers for recording their first IFL win, sending the Sugar Skulls packing, 60-36. 96 points is still a lot for a game with this sort of flow, but not enough to cash for us.
• SXF @ GB – GB -7 Spread [$19.09 flat win, $22.91 weighted win]
This was a very entertaining game, as most Storm/Blizzard matchups turn out to be. The Storm held their ground throughout the first half, trailing the Blizzard by just seven at the half. Green Bay would maintain that one-to-two score advantage throughout the second half, yet the bet had to be settled on Sioux Falls’ final drive of the game, at which point they trailed by 13, and a touchdown plus PAT would have been a backdoor cover to send this slip to the losing bin. Instead, Green Bay logged a key sack with Sioux Falls in the redzone, which ran out the rest of the clock and ensured victory. The Blizzard advance to 3-1 with the win in the rivalry game, 48-35.
• VGS @ JAX – VGS -10.5 Spread [$19.09 flat win, $15.27 weighted win]
Vegas spent Saturday night in Duval keeping up the scorching efficiency on offense that has propelled them to their hot start, but Jacksonville may have found something in new quarterback Fred Payton, Jr., who shot new life into the Sharks offense throughout the first half. Eventually, the Knight Hawk defense adjusted and never allowed a fourth quarter point, which paved the way for what turned out to be a fairly easy cover. The Knight Hawks once again looked every bit the part of a title contender by silencing the Sharks, 61-35.
• ARI @ IOWA – ARI -7 Spread [Loss]
Chalk this one up as a Bad Beat, as the Barnstormers nearly erased a deficit as large as 21 points and almost stole this game away. Just like in Sioux Falls/Green Bay, Arizona kept themselves ahead by seven to fourteen points for the majority of this game, until a defensive stand early in the fourth quarter helped get Iowa back to within two points. Arizona responded with a quick touchdown to go back up by nine, but with 1:30 left in the fourth, Kyle King provided the Iowa touchdown that would serve as the backdoor cover play. Arizona ran out the clock after securing the onside kick attempt, preserving their closer-than-comfort two point win over Iowa, 49-47.
• FRI @ TUL – TUL +7 Spread [Loss]
Sheesh. The one time I veer away from the Fighters, they decide to play God again in what a lot of people were expecting to be a competitive game. After dazzling in last week’s gem against Sioux Falls, Tulsa simply had no answers, falling behind by a baffling 40-10 margin by halftime. Not even a 15-0 run to start the second half could sustain enough momentum for the Oilers, as a seven-touchdown masterclass from T.J. Edwards would prove too much. At Country Cannabis Field on 4/20, Frisco smoked Tulsa out of their own building, 60-32.
• MASS @ QC – QC +9.5 Spread [$19.09 flat win, $28.64 weighted win]
Well, the infamous Pirates road spread drought continues for at least another week, and it will surely be a talking point until Massachusetts can prove otherwise. The Steamwheelers set out with something to prove and showed it in taking a 14-0 lead after one quarter of play. The scrappy Pirates fought back to tie the game at 23 in the third quarter, but ultimately Quad City’s offense, particularly the rushing game led by Eddie Vander, propelled not just the cover, but the outright win. Quad City earns an important second win of the season, robbing the Pirates of perfection on a 54-43 win. With this game, Massachusetts is now 0-for-11 all-time in covering spreads in games outside of the Bay State.
• SD @ BAY – SD +275 Moneyline [Loss]
We got soooo very close on this one! After a slow start that saw Rudy Johnson pulled in favor of Nate Davis, the Strike Force trailed the Panthers by as many as 16 points, but were able to stop Felix Harper on a couple fourth quarter drives that contributed to a fierce comeback, one that saw them take a three-point lead with roughly four minutes to go. The defense even forced a pair of high-pressure fourth downs on the final drive, which Bay Area converted on both. In the end, Harper would scramble for the go-ahead touchdown with 13 seconds remaining. All the Strike Force could do at that point was attempt a 50-yard field goal and try to force overtime. Stevie Artigue’s kick had the right line, but did not have enough leg and came up short. The Panthers escape with victory, staying perfect in prevailing over the Strike Force, 53-50. Notably, the two teams go for an immediate rematch this week at Pechanga Arena.
• DUKE @ NAZ – OVER 90.5 [Loss]
Not-So-Fun Fact: We chose two Over bets this week, this game and Tucson/San Antonio. They were the only two games of the entire weekend to fail to reach their point totals. The chances of incorrectly picking the point total on those two games specifically comes out to about 3.5%. As for the Gladiators/Wranglers game, there were just way too many turnovers, with the teams combining for six giveaways in total. And just like Sugar Skulls/Gunslingers, one team (Duke City) was without its predominant starting QB (Javin Kilgo), instead seeing Geremy Hickbottom take most of the QB snaps on Saturday night. The Wranglers dialed it back to the 2022-23 days, with a stifling defensive effort paving the way to a 39-23 victory. That adds up to 62 total points, far too short of the 90.5 we needed.
Week 6 turns out to be a down week for Wager Wednesday, with some more rough luck resulting in just three wins compared to five losses. Our overall record now stands at 15-18 through Week 6, leaving us with a challenging task of climbing out of this funk. Starting with an $80 budget, the flat method returned $57.27 from the three winning wagers, while the weighted method fared better in pulling back $66.82. Week 6 net loss for the flat method was -$22.73, and -$13.18 for the weighted method. For the entire season to date, the flat method stands with $43.22 of net loss (-13.10% ROI), and the weighted method stands with $33.58 of net loss (-10.18% ROI). Our picks started to catch fire around this time last year, so I remain very optimistic that a rebound is imminent. Especially if we hit a wave of even moderately average luck along the way.
No such luck for the Three-Leg Parlay of Week 6, keeping us without a single parlay win all season. If there’s any silver lining, it’s that any suspense was shot down immediately with San Antonio’s spanking of Tucson on Thursday night (We took Sugar Skulls at -4.5). The only correct selection was the “easiest” of the three (Green Bay moneyline at -265), and Frisco/Tulsa exceeded 85.5 points, to which we bet the Under. Eight of the 15 individual legs to date have been correct, but we’re still looking for three straight on the same week. After five attempts at $10 apiece, the parlay tracker currently sits at $50 of net loss. Again, all we need is one quick win and it gets pretty close to even. Here’s to hoping that success comes this week!
Week 7 gives fans a second consecutive week with all 16 teams suiting up! It’s an immediate shot at redemption for our first true winning week since Week 3, which seems like it was forever ago! The schedule calls for two games on Friday and three apiece on Saturday and Sunday. The sledding has been aggravatingly rough through six weeks; will we find a way to smooth things out with an abundance of winning picks? It is Lucky Week 7 after all, so that should apply to us! Let’s look at the lines!
Friday 4/26, 7:05 PM ET
Iowa @ Green Bay (-11.5)
Over/Under 77.5
Moneyline: <NONE>
Some classic Friday Night Football in Blizz-town, and a fine opportunity for the Blizzard to continue their torrid start to the season, facing off for the second time already against the Iowa Barnstormers, who are still stuck in the mud at 0-4. Iowa’s found some solid life on offense since rookie quarterback Kyle King took the wheel two weeks ago, guiding the Barnstormers to a nice 69 points since the second half of the Massachusetts game – a stretch spanning six quarters of play. The caveat is that the second half in Lowell was essentially all mop-up duty with the game’s outcome already decided, and Iowa's game last week further exposed an unusually leaky Arizona defense. Expect a sizable jump in difficulty facing the Blizzard’s elite defense. Very interesting number for the spread, as it’s just the half-point hook more than the margin of Green Bay’s victory back in the season opener (11 points). If Green Bay can dictate their game script that makes them so hard to play against, I don’t imagine we’ll need any more than the mid-40’s from them to feel good about this pick. Lay it with the Blizzard to stay perfect against the handicap.
The Pick: Green Bay -11.5 Spread, $12 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Blizzard 45 – Barnstormers 30
LINE CHANGE: The Total for this game has jumped up by a field goal, standing at 80.5 effective Friday 4/26 at 6:00pm ET.
Friday 4/26, 8:30 PM ET
San Antonio @ Frisco (-16.5)
Over/Under 102.5
Moneyline: <NONE>
After their strongest win of the season last week in Tulsa, the Fighters head back home to welcome their in-state rival San Antonio Gunslingers for the first of two straight editions of “The Texas Tussle”. Talk about that for a reward for San Antonio’s first IFL win last week. Frisco’s defense, which has yet to surrender more than 40 points in a game this season, will face a massive challenge going up against Sam Castronova’s Gunslingers, operating as a top-3 offensive unit despite the 1-3 record to show. This game feels awfully similar to last year’s Strike Force at Fighters matchup, which also pitted the offensively-gifted visitors as 16.5-point underdogs. That’s too much wiggle room to give an offense as deadly as San Antonio’s. Regardless of the game’s tempo, logically if San Antonio limits their number of empty possessions to two or fewer, taking the points with the dog likely holds up as the choice to make. And it’s so hard to bet against Castronova and gang right now, especially if they start this game “guns blazing.” Play Guns on the points.
The Pick: San Antonio +16.5 Spread, $9 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Fighters 55 – Gunslingers 45
LINE CHANGE: The Spread has changed from SA +16.5 to SA +14, effective Friday 4/26 at 6:00pm ET.
Saturday 4/27, 7:05 PM ET
Duke City @ Vegas (-16.5)
Over/Under 86.5
Moneyline: <NONE>
Duke City attempts to rebound after a fourth straight loss at NAZ to begin their season, but will run into a buzzsaw in Henderson taking on a Knight Hawk team that’s on absolute fire right now. At nearly 53 points per game, the Knight Hawks are 1st in the IFL in scoring per game and have scored a touchdown on an absurd 18 (!) straight possessions. If Duke City is to somehow make this a game, their path likely involves matching Vegas possession for possession. That will be predicated on the Glads avoiding turnovers and empty drives, both of which have hurt them all season long. Duke City will have to clean that up and crank up the execution level in a hurry if they want any shot at saving their season, and if Vegas continues on their unstoppable track, they could get to 60 all on their own. Overs are 11-3 in the past two weeks, and this game sets up well to add to that landslide advantage.
The Pick: OVER 86.5, $8 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Knight Hawks 56 – Gladiators 34
Saturday 4/27, 8:05 PM ET* [Game to be held at Scheels Arena in Fargo, ND]
Massachusetts (-10) vs. Sioux Falls
Over/Under 88.5
Moneyline: <NONE>
Perhaps the most anticipated game of the week due to its novelty factor, the Massachusetts Pirates and Sioux Falls Storm will participate in the Fargo IFL Gridiron Classic at Scheels Arena, the future home of the Dakota Bucks (formerly Bismarck Bucks), who are on tap to resume play next spring after a state legislation issue forced the team into dormancy after the 2022 season. With the unique neutral site environment, this technically does not identify as a “road” game for the Pirates, where the broken record inside me must mention the ongoing 0-for-11 skid for the Pirates on the road ATS. In my mind, if the game is outside The Commonwealth, then it’s close enough. Something will have to give in this matchup, however, as Sioux Falls is the only winless ATS team left in the league, sporting an 0-4 record both straight up and on the spread. Just as we did last week with great success, let’s go with banking on the longer of the two streaks dragging on and take the double-digit points with Sioux Falls. Will be interesting if the Storm decide to start Billy Hall or the returning Lorenzo Brown at quarterback.
The Pick: Sioux Falls +10 Spread, $15 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Pirates 45 – Storm 39
Saturday 4/27, 9:05 PM ET
Northern Arizona (-5.5) @ Tucson
Over/Under 92.5
Moneyline: NAZ -185, TUC +154
The second of three meetings this season between these two bitter in-state rivals, the home Sugar Skulls sit at 1-3 and risk falling further behind in the Western Conference if they drop this game to the Wranglers, who are already at 3-1. Tucson should have Mylik Mitchell back for this game after Torrance Gibson drew the surprise start last Thursday, while Josh Jones, RZ McCorker, and the rest of the Wranglers should be well-rested after coasting to a fairly easy Saturday night win against Duke City. The Sugar Skull defense, usually vaunted in years past, has been gashed so far for 51.8 points per game (Only San Antonio is worse, at 57.0 ppg against). As in the prior meeting, NAZ should have little trouble moving the ball, which leaves their high-upside defense to come up with a few positive plays of their own. I like the chances of seeing that prediction through, and I love this number at less than six for the visiting Wranglers.
The Pick: Northern Arizona -5.5 Spread, $11 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Wranglers 54 – Sugar Skulls 43
Sunday 4/28, 4:05 PM ET
Tulsa @ Quad City (-7)
Over/Under 82.5
Moneyline: TUL +230, QC -285
Both these squads enter this game at 2-2 and off surprising results from a week ago. Tulsa fell flat in a 28-point loss at home to Frisco, while Quad City dealt a previously unbeaten Pirates team its first defeat of the season. The Steamwheelers will have every bit of motivation to get back at the Oilers, who robbed Quad City of a home playoff game last year in the season finale. Last week, we saw these teams at their respective ceiling (QC) and floor (TUL), and I sense that this could be a regression to the mean type of game that pulls this one fairly close when all is said and done. For that reason, I’m willing to issue a “Get Out of Jail Free” card to the Oilers after last week’s shocking setback, banking on their ability to bounce back and perhaps catch a high-riding Steamwheelers team by surprise. Tulsa at a 42% win probability in my model and absolutely worth a play at delightful +230 odds. Need to start casting our underdog net a little wider as we get deeper into the season, and this is a fine upset pick to get that motive kickstarted.
The Pick: Tulsa +230 Moneyline, $6 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Steamwheelers 42 – Oilers 39
Sunday 4/28, 6:05 PM ET
Jacksonville @ Arizona (-13.5)
Over/Under 81.5
Moneyline: <NONE>
The Sharks and Rattlers, who competed against one another in ArenaBowl XXIV in 2011, are set to meet for the first time as IFL teams on Sunday. It will also be their first meeting overall since July 9, 2016, when both were still members of the AFL. Jacksonville made some wholesale changes leading up to last week’s loss against Vegas, but the new-look offense looked solid at times, with Fred Payton, Jr. under center helping Jacksonville attain a new season-high in points (35) against a terrific Knight Hawk defense. He should continue to build on that opening act on Sunday, facing an underwhelming Rattlers defense surrendering the fourth most points per game (46.8) in the IFL. Meanwhile, Arizona has been as consistent offensively as any team in the league, with at least 43 points in all four games so far, even with cycling between Garrett Kettle and the now-departed Lorenzo Brown during that span. This ain’t the classic Aaron Garcia versus Nick Davila matchup of yesteryear, but it still points to a decent shot for at least high 30’s output from each team. Play Sharks/Rattlers “Over”.
The Pick: OVER 81.5, $12 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Rattlers 49 – Sharks 38
LINE CHANGE: The Total for this game got bumped up by a deuce, increasing to 83.5 effective Saturday 4/27 at 6:40pm ET.
Sunday 4/28, 6:05 PM ET
Bay Area (-3) @ San Diego
Over/Under 94.5
Moneyline: BAY -148, SD +124
In the words of fictional weatherman Phil Connors, “Well, it’s Groundhog Day. Again.” In a rare instance of the true home-and-home series in pro football, Bay Area and San Diego face off in an immediate grudge match after providing fans with a “Game of the Year” candidate just last weekend at SAP Center. This time, Pechanga Arena will host, and the Strike Force are hoping the home-turf provides the advantage needed to exact revenge on the Panthers and send them to their first loss. Nate Davis was healthy enough to get back into action last Saturday, and his return boosted the Strike Force from down as many as 16 to leading by three points late in last week’s game. And even at 4-0, Bay Area finds itself with a QB decision to make between Daquan Neal and Felix Harper, as the two have split time in the past few outings. Like the aforementioned 1993 film, same matchup yields same prediction: Plus-odds underdog for the outright win. Let’s hope we get the different ending this time around, too!
The Pick: San Diego +124 Moneyline, $7 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Panthers 47 – Strike Force 45
Recommended Three-Leg Parlay of the Week:
Netting a parlay victory has proven to be a challenge to start the 2024 season, but we are right back on the saddle ready to craft up another attempt. Minimum total odds of +400 still apply, and very few moneyline games are available for the classic “see it go through the hoop” leg possibilities, so our creativity will be put to the test. Here’s to hoping this triad snaps the drought:
1st leg: Iowa @ Green Bay – OVER 77.5 (-110)
2nd leg: Massachusetts vs. Sioux Falls – UNDER 88.5 (-110)
3rd leg: Bay Area @ San Diego – Strike Force +3 Spread (-110)
Total Odds: +595 [$10.00 wager, Max Payout $69.57]
Here’s a look as well at the Futures market, for anyone seeking to predict the winner of the 2024 IFL Championship Game (August 17th) well in advance! Odds decreases from last week will be indicated in red, and increases in green.
Bay Area Panthers: +280
Frisco Fighters: +330
Massachusetts Pirates: +475
Vegas Knight Hawks: +500
San Diego Strike Force: +750
Arizona Rattlers: +750
Northern Arizona Wranglers: +1400
Green Bay Blizzard: +1500
Quad City Steamwheelers: +1800
Tucson Sugar Skulls: +2000
San Antonio Gunslingers: +2500
Tulsa Oilers: +3000
Sioux Falls Storm: +4500
Jacksonville Sharks: +5000
Duke City Gladiators: +5000
Iowa Barnstormers: +5000
Don’t forget to tune in later this evening for my video coverage of Wager Wednesday, which can be found here. Again, I’ll be going live at around 10pm ET/7pm PT, so swing by if you have the chance!
Good luck to all you bettors out there; and let’s print out the big bucks!!