Post by alecs on Jun 12, 2024 8:56:55 GMT -8
Happy Wednesday, IFL Fans!
Welcome to Volume XXXIV of my “Wager Wednesday” series, in which I examine the current landscape of the upcoming week’s games, based on lines and odds from DraftKings Sportsbook (unless otherwise stated). As an advocate of accountability, I will recap my results - whether genius or moronic - from the prior week as well. With that, let's see how my picks from last week turned out:
• GB @ MASS – MASS +150 Moneyline [LOSS]
Another heartbreaker to add to our unfortunately expanding list, with another week where both single-game bets and the parlay (we had Over 91.5) fizzle out before the week can even truly begin. For a second straight game, the Pirates started great, despite missing their most pivotal players on both sides of the ball in Alejandro Bennifield and Calvin Bundage. Green Bay’s defense forced a couple of first-half interceptions on Connor Degenhardt, which helped shift the game back in their favor. The second half was hotly contested, culminating in a 33-33 tie with a minute left. And in crunch time, it would be the Blizzard making the winning plays that elite teams routinely do. A defensive stand on fourth-and-goal set themselves up to win the game on the final drive, which they did when Andrew Mevis nailed a 34-yard field goal through the uprights with just seconds remaining. We could have gone spread here and won (Massachusetts was +4.5 pre-kick), but we got a bit greedy for the big dollar payout and came up empty. Green Bay wins for the first time in The Commonwealth in a gritty 36-33 effort.
• TUL @ JAX – JAX +3.5 Spread [$19.09 flat win, $13.36 weighted win]
Games like this one are why we play the full 60 minutes through. This one wasn’t looking good initially, as the Oilers got a much welcomed fast start that saw them lead this game nearly wire-to-wire. Key word here: nearly. The Sharks’ whole season so far has arguably been beset by lackluster efforts in the second half, a trend that was bucked in a big way in Saturday’s game. Facing a deficit that ballooned as high as 17 points, the Sharks got some efficient offense, along with some pivotal fourth-down stops, to offer themselves a chance to win right before the buzzer. Tyler King’s one-yard touchdown run would be the delivering play. Jacksonville led for only one second of this game, but it was the second that mattered most, completing the comeback over the Oilers 45-42 for their second win against Tulsa on the season. Incredibly, my pre-game correct score prediction landed exactly at this 45-42 outcome – just with the teams inverted!
• DUKE @ SA – SA -10.5 Spread [LOSS]
Our lone favorite spread bet of the week failed to really get going from the onset, as a tightly-contest first half saw the Gladiators keep the game close, thanks to a sterling defense effort which kept the Guns at just 14 points midway through. It all led to a second consecutive meeting where San Antonio needed a last-minute scoring drive to avoid being the victims of a Duke City upset. And just like the prior matchup at Rio Rancho, Sam Castronova delivered with 24 seconds left, on a touchdown pass to NyQwan Murray which put them in front. Even with that, it all came down to a buzzer-beating kick from Ernesto Lacayo of the Gladiators, but his effort sailed wide right which would have stolen the game right back. It is San Antonio who once again denies a spirited Duke City upset bid, surviving with a 46-45 win.
• FRI @ QC – QC +11.5 Spread [$19.09 flat win, $15.27 weighted win]
Woo, what a barnburner this one turned out to be! For a game with the highest implied total of the week, the first half dumped that script in favor of a defensive duel, with the Steamwheelers getting the surprise halftime lead and limiting the Fighters to just ten points at that juncture. Though Frisco was able to get to within a point or two at several different instances of the second half, Quad City’s offense proved to be too much, helping the Steamwheelers stay ahead. Frisco’s final chance at a game-tying field goal came after a clutch fourth-down stop of Quad City at the goal line, but the 50-yarder from Bryce Crawford fell just short, preserving the 52-49 win for the Steamwheelers. Rough one for anyone who had the Over, as the 101 combined points left that group short by the hook (O/U 101.5).
• VGS @ SXF – SXF +10.5 Spread [$19.09 flat win, $17.18 weighted win]
The lone game of the 8:00 Eastern window arguably was the most entertaining game of the week, with a rare non-conference showdown between two teams enduring rough stretches thus far on the season. Sioux Falls competed well throughout the entire game, as we had hoped, and even had a two-point lead at halftime. The Knight Hawks largely struggled in this one, trying to cycle between Ja’rome Johnson and Jorge Reyna at quarterback searching for any sort of momentum shift. When Caleb Holley caught a go-ahead touchdown with five seconds remaining, the visitors thought the game was won. Dean Sarris had other ideas, though, beating the buzzer with a 46-yard field goal that barely made it over the crossbar to send the game to overtime. Sioux Falls opened the extra frame with a touchdown while Elijah Reed stepped in front for a game-sealing interception in the endzone on Vegas’ extra possession. Needing a win in the worst way, the Storm deliver with a huge overtime win against the suddenly snakebitten Knight Hawks, 46-40.
• ARI @ SD – SD -192 Moneyline [LOSS]
There’s an infuriating aspect to losing this wager that just continues to rack my brain, and it’s something I made mention of in my analysis last week. Arizona, in my model, was the most likely team to pull off an upset this week, and my view of that got jaded by the season-long spread trends for each team. The Rattlers used three interceptions on Nate Davis – two of which were returned for touchdowns – to build a double-digit halftime lead. San Diego’s defense would get its turn to shine in the second half, intercepting Dalton Sneed for a few interceptions of their own. The Strike Force led 46-40 in clock-killing mode, but were halted from adding any points by an Arizona defense which forced a missed field goal attempt. With 16 seconds to go, Arizona took the lead on a seven-yard touchdown catch from Isaiah Huston, and prevailed when Conor Mangan’s 30-yard field goal attempt at the death veered wide right. A true heartbreaker for the Strike Force – and a bad beat for us – as the Rattlers stage the 47-46 upset over San Diego. Surprisingly, this brings my record picking favorites outright to 2-3, a bet that has converted 70% of the time over the full season. Buzzard luck, I say!
• TUC @ BAY – OVER 88.5 [LOSS]
Ah, yes, the good ol’ Sugar Skulls, our favorite team to predict on a weekly basis. A team with an infinite ceiling and zero floor, I just haven’t been able to diagnose which Skulls team we will get on any given game this season. This one saw the Skulls hopelessly unable to move the football against Bay Area’s top-ranked defense, as Tucson scored only six meaningful points… in the entire game (they did get a garbage-time touchdown with seconds to go to at least get into double-digits). Kinda tough to make an Over when a team can’t even get into the teens on the scoreboard. The clinical effort from the reigning Champions keeps us well short of the pregame point total, with the Panthers dominating 51-12, for just 63 combined points.
Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: The 9:00 ET window of games was the killer for us. Entering those pair of games at 3-2, Arizona’s upset of San Diego and Tucson’s flat effort against Bay Area doomed our bid for that evasive winning week (we haven’t had one of those in ten weeks now), resulting in a second straight down week at 3-4. It is made even more gut-wrenching when considering that we were theoretically two field goal results away from potentially stealing a 5-2 week. A living testament to just how cruel the nature of betting can be, and a microcosm of the unfortunate streak of rotten luck that has defined the majority of this season for Wager Wednesday. The most notable results: Underdogs went 6-1 on the spread (outright winning four times), while Unders struck back with a vengeance at 6-0-1, making it the third week of the season without an over cash (Weeks 1 and 2).The $70 budget for the week returned $57.27 on the flat method and $45.81 on the weighted method, with weekly net loss figures settling in at -$12.73 (flat) and -$24.19 (weighted). On the season, our aggregate record drops down to 37-45-1, with year-to-date net loss marks standing at -$101.88 (flat) and -$106.72 (weighted).
After winning a parlay a few weeks ago, this was the third consecutive week where we couldn’t even get two of the legs to go through. Like several of our other wagers this season, our decision to go entirely with Overs came at the worst possible time, on a week where not a single Over bet cashed – at least not in full. Green Bay/Massachusetts scored just 69 (needed 91.5), Tulsa/Jacksonville hit exactly 87 for a push, and Duke City/San Antonio fell short with 91 (needed 95.5). Thus, we remain stuck at just one parlay win on the season, with net loss on parlays up to -$65.02. To stay on pace with the four-win goal on parlays, we’ll need on average a winner every other week at this point. A tall task, considering we’ve spent the past three months logging just one victory. If the luck is ever going to turn around on a woeful 2024, now would be a fantastic time to catch a break – or two.
We couldn’t ask for a better Week 14 lineup to stage our late-season redemption bid; the first of three straight weeks in which all sixteen teams will be in action, resulting in an eight-game slate! We get our traditional Friday night Green Bay game to lead things off, with six games Saturday evening, and a bookending “Battle of California” Sunday tilt. Several exciting matchups await IFL Nation this weekend; will our selections enable us to finally make that long-awaited breakthrough to help salvage the season? With restored optimism, let’s take a look at the lines!
Overall Record by Bet Type:
Spread: 19-18-1
O/U: 12-16
Moneyline: 6-11
Friday 6/14, 8:05 PM ET
Jacksonville @ Green Bay (-14)
Over/Under 88.5
Moneyline: JAX +400, GB -650 [ESPNBet]
This is Green Bay’s home finale, as they look to reach double-digit wins before wrapping up their season with a four-game road trip. The opponent they’ll welcome, the Jacksonville Sharks, are undefeated against Tulsa and winless against… well… everybody else. Though the Sharks played a tremendous second half in their rally last week, an unusual deviation from the trend of second halves being a sore spot for them on the season. The struggles in the final 30 minutes figure to continue against the league’s most smothering defensive unit in the Blizzard. My points per ten possessions metric has Green Bay at the best differential (+10.1 pts.) and Jacksonville the worst (-13.4 pts.). Needless to say, the Blizzard are well-equipped to neutralize the Sharks running game and should earn the the chance to salt the game away with their own powerful rushing attack. Additionally, their last three wins at Resch Center were by 28 (Quad City), 29 (Frisco), and 20 (Tulsa). Don’t overthink this one, even amidst the sizzling-hot underdog spread streak. Take Green Bay to send their fans off with a convincing performance.
The Pick: Green Bay -14 Spread, $7 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Blizzard 51 – Sharks 31
LINE CHANGE: Significant spike in point total just moments before kickoff, with the O/U increased up to 92.5. Change is effective Friday 6/14 at 7:25pm ET. Those who have not yet locked in a pick could get significant value with Under 92.5, as my model has this game averaging in the low 80's.
Saturday 6/15, 7:05 PM ET
San Antonio @ Massachusetts (-7)
Over/Under 89.5
Moneyline: SA +225, MASS -278
The Pirates find themselves suddenly fighting for their playoff lives, dropping five of their last seven games after a 4-0 start, going against a Gunslingers team on the opposite trajectory (5-2 after an 0-3 start). The matchup is interesting because it pits both teams’ defining strengths directly against each other (San Antonio offense vs. Massachusetts defense in particular will be a lot of fun to watch). Pirates are also dealing with injuries to key players such as Alejandro Bennifield and Calvin Bundage, both of whom missed last week’s loss to Green Bay. I worry too much about the lack of upside in the offense of the Pirates – and that’s even accounting for Bennifield under center – to justify backing them against an opponent with San Antonio’s profile. This will be a hotly contested game, with both teams out to prove that they’re more than just league-average. But offensive ceiling rules the day with my pick, and given that nine of the Pirates' 11 games have been decided by eight points or fewer, go with the underdog Gunslingers with the touchdown spread.
The Pick: San Antonio +7 Spread, $11 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Pirates 44 – Gunslingers 42
Saturday 6/15, 8:05 PM ET
Quad City (-1) @ Iowa
Over/Under 100
Moneyline: QC -115, IOWA -105
A rubber match in Des Moines, with the Barnstormers hosting the Steamwheelers in the third game of this season series, with both teams having logged exciting two-point victories in their home arenas. Those games were defined by explosive offenses and tempo roughly equal to Warp Factor 7, as each team reached 50 points in both prior outings. This time around, Iowa’s starting QB is Daniel Smith, who has already eviscerated this Quad City defense for 72 points earlier this season as an Oiler. With both teams intent on improving their chances of securing a playoff spot, we could get another electrifying edition of this rivalry on Saturday night. But this total seems a shade high, with the aforementioned 55-53 and 57-55 games factoring heavily into this opening line, and understandably so. Although picking the Under has been an outright disaster for me thus far (3-6), I’m praying that the triple-digit threshold provides sufficient breathing room, where a few early empty drives and/or field goal attempts could put us in solid shape from the get-go. Model’s simulations average around 92-94 points for this one; play Quad City/Iowa “Under”.
The Pick: UNDER 100, $7 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Barnstormers 47 – Steamwheelers 45
LINE CHANGE: Slight shift in spread and moneylines, with Quad City now the favorite by 1.5 points. Moneylines have changed to QC -120 and IOWA +100. Change is effective Thursday 6/13 at 7:50pm
Saturday 6/15, 8:05 PM ET
Vegas (-9) @ Duke City
Over/Under 94.5
Moneyline: VGS -380, DUKE +300
It has been a brutal stretch for the Knight Hawks recently, who have felt the joys of a 7-0 start fade significantly as a result of a three-game losing streak – two of which have been in overtime and the other coming in the final ten seconds of the game. If there’s any chance at a bounce-back game for them, it’s this one right here against the 1-9 Gladiators, who will be playing at home for the first time since Week 9. In the teams’ prior matchup at Week 7 in Henderson, Duke City actually chased Ja’rome Johnson early in the game, showing some mettle defensively in the process. But it's hard to ignore the fact that the Gladiators’ offensive production fluctuates wildly on a weekly basis. In the past four games, they’ve logged 45, 21, 53, and 21 points, offering no rhyme or reason for the peaks and valleys. Vegas has been equally as untrustworthy as well for bettors, dropping five of their last six on the spread despite some impressive season-long metrics. Perhaps the result of Vegas dropping three straight, we do get the moneyline option for this one, and we will take it, backing the Knight Hawks to bounce back!
The Pick: Vegas -380 Moneyline, $19 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Knight Hawks 49 – Gladiators 36
Saturday 6/15, 8:05 PM ET
Sioux Falls (-1.5) @ Tulsa
Over/Under 86.5
Moneyline: SXF -120, TUL +100
Both teams in must-win territory here, with the Oilers looking to bring an end to a six-game losing streak in a home clash with the Sioux Falls Storm, winners of three of their last five contests. The visitors bring in a ton of confidence after a stellar overtime win against Vegas, continually looking more and more like the scrappy bunch that surprised the world with their run to the Championship game last year, hoping to craft a similar path to the postseason this summer. As for the Oklahomans, getting Jarrod Ware Jr. back in the mix seemed to unlock an offense that had sputtered since the Daniel Smith trade, and now at close to full health should be able to build on that effort going forward. Along with Quad City, the Storm ranked second in the IFL in games to reach the Over (seven), and both teams crossing the 45-point threshold in this one is certainly achievable here. At two points below the defining 88.5 mark (Over is 27-14-1 at 88.5 or less), look for Storm/Oilers to go “Over” on Saturday night.
The Pick: OVER 86.5, $7 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Storm 47 – Oilers 45
LINE CHANGE: The spread and moneyline bets have changed, with the Storm now favorites by 2.5 points. Moneylines have changed to SXF -130, TUL +110. Change effective as of Thursday 6/13 at 7:50pm ET.
Saturday 6/15, 9:05 PM ET
Frisco (-13.5) @ Tucson
Over/Under 91
Moneyline: FRI -500, TUC +340 [ESPNBet]
We now return to everybody's favorite program of this series: How will the Sugar Skulls “bone” me this time around? For those keeping score at home, my record is a dreadful 1-9 in picking Tucson games this season, and again we’re in a spot where we cannot flee to the land of the moneyline to save us. All that I can reasonably do is confide in some reliable stats as I’ve done all year, and hope they stick for a change. One of those trends: Frisco has yet to follow up a loss with another loss in their franchise history. In addition, Frisco should easily be able to score points against a below-average Tucson defense, with the Fighters averaging 52.7 points per game in which T.J. Edwards is active. And now they bring on Justin Rankin as their newest weapon in the classic “rich get richer” move. The determining factor of this bet will be if the Fighters defense can keep Tucson’s struggling offense at bay, and we’re talking about a team with 32 points in the past two games combined. Lay it with Frisco to log the bounce-back win.
The Pick: Frisco -13.5 Spread, $7 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Fighters 54 – Sugar Skulls 36
Saturday 6/15, 9:05 PM ET
Northern Arizona @ Arizona (-4.5)
Over/Under 97.5
Moneyline: NAZ +160, ARI -192
Huge matchup out west in the Desert, with the Wranglers fresh off a bye travelling to Glendale to face a Rattlers team riding some momentum after a close road win at San Diego last week. These teams have treated us to some memorable episodes in the past couple seasons – from delightful regular season contests to unforgettable postseason classics – and there’s no better way to bring in a new chapter than a game that should have major impact on potential playoff seeding. The teams are near equals according to my efficiency model, with much of the built-in advantage here the result of Arizona being the home team. But Northern Arizona has proven time and again they can beat the Rattlers as the visitors, and their fresh legs should enable them to give this game the best run possible. We get a great number at plus a field goal, making us immune to a potential Arizona game-winning field goal, so take the points with a Wrangler team that’s currently cooking.
The Pick: Northern Arizona +4.5 Spread, $7 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Rattlers 50 – Wranglers 47
Sunday 6/16, 6:05 PM ET
San Diego @ Bay Area (-7)
Over/Under 91.5
Moneyline: SD +235, BAY -290
The “Battle of California” makes a triumphant return in Week 14’s finale, with the Strike Force attempting to shake off a couple tough recent defeats leading up to this game against the Bay Area Panthers. Aside from one hiccup against Vegas, Bay Area has been virtually perfect on their title defense campaign, looking thoroughly unstoppable in several of their wins to date. With all bet types available, this is one instance where we simply have to capitalize of the moneyline while we can. My newly adopted strategy of “Let’s take the favorite every once in a while, since they’re 70% effective” has not at all yielded the results I’ve expected, with just two of five favorites successfully selected as outright winners. So what better way to make a high-percentage run at a victory than by taking the best team in the IFL at home? Panthers move to 10-1 with another rock-solid showing on Sunday night.
The Pick: Bay Area -290 Moneyline, $15 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Panthers 49 – Strike Force 42
Recommended Three-Leg Parlay of the Week:
We are met with an interesting decision this week regarding how we want to construct our Three-Leg Parlay for this week. Overs were scorching-hot prior to last week, until regression to the mean hit hard with six of the seven games falling under the set total. Is that the well we go back to, or do we incorporate some other bet types this time around to diversify the slip a bit? This is the selection I’m thinking carries the best positive momentum into this week:
1st leg: Quad City @ Iowa – Barnstormers +1 Spread (-110)
2nd leg: Vegas @ Duke City – Knight Hawks -9 Spread (-110)
3rd leg: Northern Arizona @ Arizona – Wranglers Moneyline (+160)
Total Odds: +847 [$10.00 wager, Max Payout $94.76]
Here’s a look as well at the Futures market, for anyone seeking to predict the winner of the 2024 IFL Championship Game (August 17th) well in advance! Odds decreases from last week will be indicated in red, and increases in green. ***These are last week’s odds, as the Futures market has not yet been re-opened in DraftKings. Once those become available, I will update them here.***
Vegas Knight Hawks: +320
Bay Area Panthers: +320
Frisco Fighters: +425
Green Bay Blizzard: +500
Arizona Rattlers: +750
Massachusetts Pirates: +900
San Diego Strike Force: +900
Northern Arizona Wranglers: +1100
San Antonio Gunslingers: +2000
Quad City Steamwheelers: +4000
Tucson Sugar Skulls: +7500
Iowa Barnstormers: +7500
Sioux Falls Storm: +7500
Tulsa Oilers: +10000
Duke City Gladiators: +15000
OFF THE BOARD: Jacksonville Sharks
Don’t forget to tune in later this evening for my video coverage of Wager Wednesday, which can be found here. This week, I will be going live on my stream earlier in the evening, at 7pm ET/4pm PT, as a result of tonight’s 8:30pm ET start to Game 3 of the Celtics/Mavericks NBA Finals. If you’re still free at that time, swing by if you have the chance!
Good luck to all you bettors out there; and let’s print out the big bucks!!
Welcome to Volume XXXIV of my “Wager Wednesday” series, in which I examine the current landscape of the upcoming week’s games, based on lines and odds from DraftKings Sportsbook (unless otherwise stated). As an advocate of accountability, I will recap my results - whether genius or moronic - from the prior week as well. With that, let's see how my picks from last week turned out:
• GB @ MASS – MASS +150 Moneyline [LOSS]
Another heartbreaker to add to our unfortunately expanding list, with another week where both single-game bets and the parlay (we had Over 91.5) fizzle out before the week can even truly begin. For a second straight game, the Pirates started great, despite missing their most pivotal players on both sides of the ball in Alejandro Bennifield and Calvin Bundage. Green Bay’s defense forced a couple of first-half interceptions on Connor Degenhardt, which helped shift the game back in their favor. The second half was hotly contested, culminating in a 33-33 tie with a minute left. And in crunch time, it would be the Blizzard making the winning plays that elite teams routinely do. A defensive stand on fourth-and-goal set themselves up to win the game on the final drive, which they did when Andrew Mevis nailed a 34-yard field goal through the uprights with just seconds remaining. We could have gone spread here and won (Massachusetts was +4.5 pre-kick), but we got a bit greedy for the big dollar payout and came up empty. Green Bay wins for the first time in The Commonwealth in a gritty 36-33 effort.
• TUL @ JAX – JAX +3.5 Spread [$19.09 flat win, $13.36 weighted win]
Games like this one are why we play the full 60 minutes through. This one wasn’t looking good initially, as the Oilers got a much welcomed fast start that saw them lead this game nearly wire-to-wire. Key word here: nearly. The Sharks’ whole season so far has arguably been beset by lackluster efforts in the second half, a trend that was bucked in a big way in Saturday’s game. Facing a deficit that ballooned as high as 17 points, the Sharks got some efficient offense, along with some pivotal fourth-down stops, to offer themselves a chance to win right before the buzzer. Tyler King’s one-yard touchdown run would be the delivering play. Jacksonville led for only one second of this game, but it was the second that mattered most, completing the comeback over the Oilers 45-42 for their second win against Tulsa on the season. Incredibly, my pre-game correct score prediction landed exactly at this 45-42 outcome – just with the teams inverted!
• DUKE @ SA – SA -10.5 Spread [LOSS]
Our lone favorite spread bet of the week failed to really get going from the onset, as a tightly-contest first half saw the Gladiators keep the game close, thanks to a sterling defense effort which kept the Guns at just 14 points midway through. It all led to a second consecutive meeting where San Antonio needed a last-minute scoring drive to avoid being the victims of a Duke City upset. And just like the prior matchup at Rio Rancho, Sam Castronova delivered with 24 seconds left, on a touchdown pass to NyQwan Murray which put them in front. Even with that, it all came down to a buzzer-beating kick from Ernesto Lacayo of the Gladiators, but his effort sailed wide right which would have stolen the game right back. It is San Antonio who once again denies a spirited Duke City upset bid, surviving with a 46-45 win.
• FRI @ QC – QC +11.5 Spread [$19.09 flat win, $15.27 weighted win]
Woo, what a barnburner this one turned out to be! For a game with the highest implied total of the week, the first half dumped that script in favor of a defensive duel, with the Steamwheelers getting the surprise halftime lead and limiting the Fighters to just ten points at that juncture. Though Frisco was able to get to within a point or two at several different instances of the second half, Quad City’s offense proved to be too much, helping the Steamwheelers stay ahead. Frisco’s final chance at a game-tying field goal came after a clutch fourth-down stop of Quad City at the goal line, but the 50-yarder from Bryce Crawford fell just short, preserving the 52-49 win for the Steamwheelers. Rough one for anyone who had the Over, as the 101 combined points left that group short by the hook (O/U 101.5).
• VGS @ SXF – SXF +10.5 Spread [$19.09 flat win, $17.18 weighted win]
The lone game of the 8:00 Eastern window arguably was the most entertaining game of the week, with a rare non-conference showdown between two teams enduring rough stretches thus far on the season. Sioux Falls competed well throughout the entire game, as we had hoped, and even had a two-point lead at halftime. The Knight Hawks largely struggled in this one, trying to cycle between Ja’rome Johnson and Jorge Reyna at quarterback searching for any sort of momentum shift. When Caleb Holley caught a go-ahead touchdown with five seconds remaining, the visitors thought the game was won. Dean Sarris had other ideas, though, beating the buzzer with a 46-yard field goal that barely made it over the crossbar to send the game to overtime. Sioux Falls opened the extra frame with a touchdown while Elijah Reed stepped in front for a game-sealing interception in the endzone on Vegas’ extra possession. Needing a win in the worst way, the Storm deliver with a huge overtime win against the suddenly snakebitten Knight Hawks, 46-40.
• ARI @ SD – SD -192 Moneyline [LOSS]
There’s an infuriating aspect to losing this wager that just continues to rack my brain, and it’s something I made mention of in my analysis last week. Arizona, in my model, was the most likely team to pull off an upset this week, and my view of that got jaded by the season-long spread trends for each team. The Rattlers used three interceptions on Nate Davis – two of which were returned for touchdowns – to build a double-digit halftime lead. San Diego’s defense would get its turn to shine in the second half, intercepting Dalton Sneed for a few interceptions of their own. The Strike Force led 46-40 in clock-killing mode, but were halted from adding any points by an Arizona defense which forced a missed field goal attempt. With 16 seconds to go, Arizona took the lead on a seven-yard touchdown catch from Isaiah Huston, and prevailed when Conor Mangan’s 30-yard field goal attempt at the death veered wide right. A true heartbreaker for the Strike Force – and a bad beat for us – as the Rattlers stage the 47-46 upset over San Diego. Surprisingly, this brings my record picking favorites outright to 2-3, a bet that has converted 70% of the time over the full season. Buzzard luck, I say!
• TUC @ BAY – OVER 88.5 [LOSS]
Ah, yes, the good ol’ Sugar Skulls, our favorite team to predict on a weekly basis. A team with an infinite ceiling and zero floor, I just haven’t been able to diagnose which Skulls team we will get on any given game this season. This one saw the Skulls hopelessly unable to move the football against Bay Area’s top-ranked defense, as Tucson scored only six meaningful points… in the entire game (they did get a garbage-time touchdown with seconds to go to at least get into double-digits). Kinda tough to make an Over when a team can’t even get into the teens on the scoreboard. The clinical effort from the reigning Champions keeps us well short of the pregame point total, with the Panthers dominating 51-12, for just 63 combined points.
Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: The 9:00 ET window of games was the killer for us. Entering those pair of games at 3-2, Arizona’s upset of San Diego and Tucson’s flat effort against Bay Area doomed our bid for that evasive winning week (we haven’t had one of those in ten weeks now), resulting in a second straight down week at 3-4. It is made even more gut-wrenching when considering that we were theoretically two field goal results away from potentially stealing a 5-2 week. A living testament to just how cruel the nature of betting can be, and a microcosm of the unfortunate streak of rotten luck that has defined the majority of this season for Wager Wednesday. The most notable results: Underdogs went 6-1 on the spread (outright winning four times), while Unders struck back with a vengeance at 6-0-1, making it the third week of the season without an over cash (Weeks 1 and 2).The $70 budget for the week returned $57.27 on the flat method and $45.81 on the weighted method, with weekly net loss figures settling in at -$12.73 (flat) and -$24.19 (weighted). On the season, our aggregate record drops down to 37-45-1, with year-to-date net loss marks standing at -$101.88 (flat) and -$106.72 (weighted).
After winning a parlay a few weeks ago, this was the third consecutive week where we couldn’t even get two of the legs to go through. Like several of our other wagers this season, our decision to go entirely with Overs came at the worst possible time, on a week where not a single Over bet cashed – at least not in full. Green Bay/Massachusetts scored just 69 (needed 91.5), Tulsa/Jacksonville hit exactly 87 for a push, and Duke City/San Antonio fell short with 91 (needed 95.5). Thus, we remain stuck at just one parlay win on the season, with net loss on parlays up to -$65.02. To stay on pace with the four-win goal on parlays, we’ll need on average a winner every other week at this point. A tall task, considering we’ve spent the past three months logging just one victory. If the luck is ever going to turn around on a woeful 2024, now would be a fantastic time to catch a break – or two.
We couldn’t ask for a better Week 14 lineup to stage our late-season redemption bid; the first of three straight weeks in which all sixteen teams will be in action, resulting in an eight-game slate! We get our traditional Friday night Green Bay game to lead things off, with six games Saturday evening, and a bookending “Battle of California” Sunday tilt. Several exciting matchups await IFL Nation this weekend; will our selections enable us to finally make that long-awaited breakthrough to help salvage the season? With restored optimism, let’s take a look at the lines!
Overall Record by Bet Type:
Spread: 19-18-1
O/U: 12-16
Moneyline: 6-11
Friday 6/14, 8:05 PM ET
Jacksonville @ Green Bay (-14)
Over/Under 88.5
Moneyline: JAX +400, GB -650 [ESPNBet]
This is Green Bay’s home finale, as they look to reach double-digit wins before wrapping up their season with a four-game road trip. The opponent they’ll welcome, the Jacksonville Sharks, are undefeated against Tulsa and winless against… well… everybody else. Though the Sharks played a tremendous second half in their rally last week, an unusual deviation from the trend of second halves being a sore spot for them on the season. The struggles in the final 30 minutes figure to continue against the league’s most smothering defensive unit in the Blizzard. My points per ten possessions metric has Green Bay at the best differential (+10.1 pts.) and Jacksonville the worst (-13.4 pts.). Needless to say, the Blizzard are well-equipped to neutralize the Sharks running game and should earn the the chance to salt the game away with their own powerful rushing attack. Additionally, their last three wins at Resch Center were by 28 (Quad City), 29 (Frisco), and 20 (Tulsa). Don’t overthink this one, even amidst the sizzling-hot underdog spread streak. Take Green Bay to send their fans off with a convincing performance.
The Pick: Green Bay -14 Spread, $7 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Blizzard 51 – Sharks 31
LINE CHANGE: Significant spike in point total just moments before kickoff, with the O/U increased up to 92.5. Change is effective Friday 6/14 at 7:25pm ET. Those who have not yet locked in a pick could get significant value with Under 92.5, as my model has this game averaging in the low 80's.
Saturday 6/15, 7:05 PM ET
San Antonio @ Massachusetts (-7)
Over/Under 89.5
Moneyline: SA +225, MASS -278
The Pirates find themselves suddenly fighting for their playoff lives, dropping five of their last seven games after a 4-0 start, going against a Gunslingers team on the opposite trajectory (5-2 after an 0-3 start). The matchup is interesting because it pits both teams’ defining strengths directly against each other (San Antonio offense vs. Massachusetts defense in particular will be a lot of fun to watch). Pirates are also dealing with injuries to key players such as Alejandro Bennifield and Calvin Bundage, both of whom missed last week’s loss to Green Bay. I worry too much about the lack of upside in the offense of the Pirates – and that’s even accounting for Bennifield under center – to justify backing them against an opponent with San Antonio’s profile. This will be a hotly contested game, with both teams out to prove that they’re more than just league-average. But offensive ceiling rules the day with my pick, and given that nine of the Pirates' 11 games have been decided by eight points or fewer, go with the underdog Gunslingers with the touchdown spread.
The Pick: San Antonio +7 Spread, $11 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Pirates 44 – Gunslingers 42
Saturday 6/15, 8:05 PM ET
Quad City (-1) @ Iowa
Over/Under 100
Moneyline: QC -115, IOWA -105
A rubber match in Des Moines, with the Barnstormers hosting the Steamwheelers in the third game of this season series, with both teams having logged exciting two-point victories in their home arenas. Those games were defined by explosive offenses and tempo roughly equal to Warp Factor 7, as each team reached 50 points in both prior outings. This time around, Iowa’s starting QB is Daniel Smith, who has already eviscerated this Quad City defense for 72 points earlier this season as an Oiler. With both teams intent on improving their chances of securing a playoff spot, we could get another electrifying edition of this rivalry on Saturday night. But this total seems a shade high, with the aforementioned 55-53 and 57-55 games factoring heavily into this opening line, and understandably so. Although picking the Under has been an outright disaster for me thus far (3-6), I’m praying that the triple-digit threshold provides sufficient breathing room, where a few early empty drives and/or field goal attempts could put us in solid shape from the get-go. Model’s simulations average around 92-94 points for this one; play Quad City/Iowa “Under”.
The Pick: UNDER 100, $7 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Barnstormers 47 – Steamwheelers 45
LINE CHANGE: Slight shift in spread and moneylines, with Quad City now the favorite by 1.5 points. Moneylines have changed to QC -120 and IOWA +100. Change is effective Thursday 6/13 at 7:50pm
Saturday 6/15, 8:05 PM ET
Vegas (-9) @ Duke City
Over/Under 94.5
Moneyline: VGS -380, DUKE +300
It has been a brutal stretch for the Knight Hawks recently, who have felt the joys of a 7-0 start fade significantly as a result of a three-game losing streak – two of which have been in overtime and the other coming in the final ten seconds of the game. If there’s any chance at a bounce-back game for them, it’s this one right here against the 1-9 Gladiators, who will be playing at home for the first time since Week 9. In the teams’ prior matchup at Week 7 in Henderson, Duke City actually chased Ja’rome Johnson early in the game, showing some mettle defensively in the process. But it's hard to ignore the fact that the Gladiators’ offensive production fluctuates wildly on a weekly basis. In the past four games, they’ve logged 45, 21, 53, and 21 points, offering no rhyme or reason for the peaks and valleys. Vegas has been equally as untrustworthy as well for bettors, dropping five of their last six on the spread despite some impressive season-long metrics. Perhaps the result of Vegas dropping three straight, we do get the moneyline option for this one, and we will take it, backing the Knight Hawks to bounce back!
The Pick: Vegas -380 Moneyline, $19 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Knight Hawks 49 – Gladiators 36
Saturday 6/15, 8:05 PM ET
Sioux Falls (-1.5) @ Tulsa
Over/Under 86.5
Moneyline: SXF -120, TUL +100
Both teams in must-win territory here, with the Oilers looking to bring an end to a six-game losing streak in a home clash with the Sioux Falls Storm, winners of three of their last five contests. The visitors bring in a ton of confidence after a stellar overtime win against Vegas, continually looking more and more like the scrappy bunch that surprised the world with their run to the Championship game last year, hoping to craft a similar path to the postseason this summer. As for the Oklahomans, getting Jarrod Ware Jr. back in the mix seemed to unlock an offense that had sputtered since the Daniel Smith trade, and now at close to full health should be able to build on that effort going forward. Along with Quad City, the Storm ranked second in the IFL in games to reach the Over (seven), and both teams crossing the 45-point threshold in this one is certainly achievable here. At two points below the defining 88.5 mark (Over is 27-14-1 at 88.5 or less), look for Storm/Oilers to go “Over” on Saturday night.
The Pick: OVER 86.5, $7 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Storm 47 – Oilers 45
LINE CHANGE: The spread and moneyline bets have changed, with the Storm now favorites by 2.5 points. Moneylines have changed to SXF -130, TUL +110. Change effective as of Thursday 6/13 at 7:50pm ET.
Saturday 6/15, 9:05 PM ET
Frisco (-13.5) @ Tucson
Over/Under 91
Moneyline: FRI -500, TUC +340 [ESPNBet]
We now return to everybody's favorite program of this series: How will the Sugar Skulls “bone” me this time around? For those keeping score at home, my record is a dreadful 1-9 in picking Tucson games this season, and again we’re in a spot where we cannot flee to the land of the moneyline to save us. All that I can reasonably do is confide in some reliable stats as I’ve done all year, and hope they stick for a change. One of those trends: Frisco has yet to follow up a loss with another loss in their franchise history. In addition, Frisco should easily be able to score points against a below-average Tucson defense, with the Fighters averaging 52.7 points per game in which T.J. Edwards is active. And now they bring on Justin Rankin as their newest weapon in the classic “rich get richer” move. The determining factor of this bet will be if the Fighters defense can keep Tucson’s struggling offense at bay, and we’re talking about a team with 32 points in the past two games combined. Lay it with Frisco to log the bounce-back win.
The Pick: Frisco -13.5 Spread, $7 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Fighters 54 – Sugar Skulls 36
Saturday 6/15, 9:05 PM ET
Northern Arizona @ Arizona (-4.5)
Over/Under 97.5
Moneyline: NAZ +160, ARI -192
Huge matchup out west in the Desert, with the Wranglers fresh off a bye travelling to Glendale to face a Rattlers team riding some momentum after a close road win at San Diego last week. These teams have treated us to some memorable episodes in the past couple seasons – from delightful regular season contests to unforgettable postseason classics – and there’s no better way to bring in a new chapter than a game that should have major impact on potential playoff seeding. The teams are near equals according to my efficiency model, with much of the built-in advantage here the result of Arizona being the home team. But Northern Arizona has proven time and again they can beat the Rattlers as the visitors, and their fresh legs should enable them to give this game the best run possible. We get a great number at plus a field goal, making us immune to a potential Arizona game-winning field goal, so take the points with a Wrangler team that’s currently cooking.
The Pick: Northern Arizona +4.5 Spread, $7 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Rattlers 50 – Wranglers 47
Sunday 6/16, 6:05 PM ET
San Diego @ Bay Area (-7)
Over/Under 91.5
Moneyline: SD +235, BAY -290
The “Battle of California” makes a triumphant return in Week 14’s finale, with the Strike Force attempting to shake off a couple tough recent defeats leading up to this game against the Bay Area Panthers. Aside from one hiccup against Vegas, Bay Area has been virtually perfect on their title defense campaign, looking thoroughly unstoppable in several of their wins to date. With all bet types available, this is one instance where we simply have to capitalize of the moneyline while we can. My newly adopted strategy of “Let’s take the favorite every once in a while, since they’re 70% effective” has not at all yielded the results I’ve expected, with just two of five favorites successfully selected as outright winners. So what better way to make a high-percentage run at a victory than by taking the best team in the IFL at home? Panthers move to 10-1 with another rock-solid showing on Sunday night.
The Pick: Bay Area -290 Moneyline, $15 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Panthers 49 – Strike Force 42
Recommended Three-Leg Parlay of the Week:
We are met with an interesting decision this week regarding how we want to construct our Three-Leg Parlay for this week. Overs were scorching-hot prior to last week, until regression to the mean hit hard with six of the seven games falling under the set total. Is that the well we go back to, or do we incorporate some other bet types this time around to diversify the slip a bit? This is the selection I’m thinking carries the best positive momentum into this week:
1st leg: Quad City @ Iowa – Barnstormers +1 Spread (-110)
2nd leg: Vegas @ Duke City – Knight Hawks -9 Spread (-110)
3rd leg: Northern Arizona @ Arizona – Wranglers Moneyline (+160)
Total Odds: +847 [$10.00 wager, Max Payout $94.76]
Here’s a look as well at the Futures market, for anyone seeking to predict the winner of the 2024 IFL Championship Game (August 17th) well in advance! Odds decreases from last week will be indicated in red, and increases in green. ***These are last week’s odds, as the Futures market has not yet been re-opened in DraftKings. Once those become available, I will update them here.***
Vegas Knight Hawks: +320
Bay Area Panthers: +320
Frisco Fighters: +425
Green Bay Blizzard: +500
Arizona Rattlers: +750
Massachusetts Pirates: +900
San Diego Strike Force: +900
Northern Arizona Wranglers: +1100
San Antonio Gunslingers: +2000
Quad City Steamwheelers: +4000
Tucson Sugar Skulls: +7500
Iowa Barnstormers: +7500
Sioux Falls Storm: +7500
Tulsa Oilers: +10000
Duke City Gladiators: +15000
OFF THE BOARD: Jacksonville Sharks
Don’t forget to tune in later this evening for my video coverage of Wager Wednesday, which can be found here. This week, I will be going live on my stream earlier in the evening, at 7pm ET/4pm PT, as a result of tonight’s 8:30pm ET start to Game 3 of the Celtics/Mavericks NBA Finals. If you’re still free at that time, swing by if you have the chance!
Good luck to all you bettors out there; and let’s print out the big bucks!!
