Post by alecs on Jul 24, 2024 11:19:39 GMT -8
Happy Wednesday, IFL Fans!
Welcome to Volume XL of my Wager Wednesday series, in which I examine the current landscape of the upcoming week’s games, based on lines and odds from DraftKings Sportsbook (unless otherwise stated). As an advocate of accountability, I will recap my results - whether genius or moronic - from the prior week as well. With that, let's see how my picks from last week turned out:
• MASS @ TUL – TUL +4.5 Spread [$19.09 flat win, $24.82 weighted win]
It’s the end of the regular season, so I have to make this pun, as horrible as it is… This pick was slicker than an oil spill! Even with no immediate rewards outside of the thrill of victory in store for the Oilers, Tulsa gave their fans every reason to cheer as they grabbed this game by the horns and never looked back. As soon as Massachusetts trailed by ten points in the second quarter, they thought better than to chase the game, calling off the dogs and giving Connor Degenhardt mop-up duties while prioritizing the health of Alejandro Bennifield, Jimmie Robinson, and Thomas Owens (inactive), while Isaac Zico was merely a decoy for this one. We probably should have gone with moneyline in hindsight, but at least we made that choice on the three-leg parlay, giving it at least a little love. Tulsa wraps up their season with a fine home win for the second year running, clubbing the Pirates 44-24.
• QC @ JAX – JAX +4 Spread [$19.09 flat win, $17.18 weighted win]
Anyone else have the most exhilarating finish of the week – and perhaps the season – happening in Duval last week?! Certainly not me! The Sharks looked to keep the Steamwheelers situated in the fourth seed, trying to extend their great stretch of football to close out 2024. They got the dream start, scoring the first 14 points of the game and forcing Quad City into chase mode. To the Steamwheelers’ credit, they stayed with it and managed to tie the game at 37 late in the fourth quarter, and even staged a defensive stand late in regulation to set up a potential winner to avoid overtime. Kyle Kaplan, who has nailed as long as a 53-yard winner this season, chunked the 48-yarder short, allowing a chance for a return by Tyler King of the Sharks. He managed to hit the Royal Flush, returning the miss all the way to the house with no time remaining. The wild ending sequence gave Jacksonville the 43-37 win and stomps out any possibility of playoff football in Moline this postseason.
• ARI @ SA – SA +4 Spread [LOSS]
Let’s be honest: Almost everyone not currently entrenched in Rattler Nation wanted to see the Gunslingers potentially contribute to a shot at once-in-a-generation history. A Rattler loss could have prevented them from joining the playoff mix for the first time since the 2007 season in the AFL, at which point a 12-year-old Alec was far too young to legally gamble! With the stakes the highest they’ve been, it was actually the Arizona defense – which has been a decidedly average unit throughout the year – that delivered big and held the Gunslingers explosive offense in check. An interception along with a pair of turnovers on downs was enough to allow the offense to do just enough to separate themselves from their spirited adversaries. In the second-lowest scoring San Antonio game of the season, Arizona takes all doubt out of the equation and clinches the playoffs with a 41-34 road win.
• GB @ SXF – GB -10.5 Spread [$19.09 flat win, $22.91 weighted win]
The power of research and an intimate understanding of situational football quite often paves the path to successful predictions in this game. The Blizzard, seeking the top Eastern seed, just needed to take care of their bottom-dwelling rival Sioux Falls to reach that goal. A 30-7 start to the game was precisely what we wanted to see early in this game, and though the Storm battled back with a quick 15 points in the third quarter, Green Bay reasserted themselves and got back to a comfortable margin well outside of backdoor cover territory. Rookie running back E.J. Burgess wrapped up his OROY-worthy campaign with a nine-catch, 123 yard, two-touchdown evening. His efforts, along with the defense slamming the door shut on the Storm, wraps up Green Bay’s best regular season ever with the 51-30 win. Their sights now are set firmly on the path to their first-ever championship.
• IOWA @ FRI – OVER 94.5 [$18.93 flat win, $15.14 weighted win]
If every “Where’s Eli Mack?” question in the live chat equated to a point scored in the game, this bet probably would have won prior to kickoff. Life don’t work that way, though, so we had to play this game on the field to decide our fate. This was another game where the Over/Under sweat turned into a rollercoaster of emotion, with a blazing first half (58 points) offset by just a seven-point third quarter. All of a sudden, we needed some quick strikes and at least 30 points in the last 15 minutes to make this over. Thankfully, the Barnstormers and Fighters stayed competitive and lit up the scoreboard, with a gorgeous nine-yard slant from Brandon Alt to Quian Williams cashing our wager with just a minute left! And just for good measure, T.J. Edwards added a stat-padding rushing score with no time left as well. Frisco defeats the Barnstormers, 59-47, and they will start their postseason campaign against bitter rival Massachusetts this weekend.
• TUC @ VGS – UNDER 88.5 [$19.09 flat win, $15.27 weighted win]
Ladies and gentlemen, “the streak” has reached its only appropriate conclusion! The Sugar Skulls and Knight Hawks battled in Henderson, with the hometown Hawks having an opportunity to earn a playoff game at home in their postseason debut next weekend. The Over actually had a bit of pulse to this one midway through, with the Hawks ahead 28-18 at halftime for a healthy 46 points. The underrated Vegas defense dialed in for the final 30 minutes, though, allowing just one Tucson touchdown the rest of the way and using their run game to put the finishing touches on the evening. They did so, to the tune of a pivotal 49-25 win to grab the second seed in the West. As for the previously mentioned streak, the regular season ends with EIGHT consecutive Tucson games staying Under the implied total! “Rollover” betting strategists could have placed $10 at the beginning of the streak, rolled over all winnings week after week, and turned those series of wagers into roughly $1,764 at the end!
• BAY @ SD – BAY +3 Spread [$19.09 flat win, $21.00 weighted win]
Partial credit for this win has to go to our “Off the Wall” podcast friends, who inspired me with the “Take Bay Area Spread if they’re given the points” strategy that rushed firmly to the front of my mind when I made this selection. We had expected the Panthers to rest several starters, but Nate Davis was a surprise inactive for this contest, which gave a maligned Darius-James Peterson a spot start for an uplifting feel-good story since his release from Iowa about a month ago. Sadly for Peterson, his fate fell victim to several others who have had the misfortune of lining up against the Panther defense, struggling to move the ball and getting contained to just 20 total points on the night. The Felix Harper-led Panthers weren’t much better, but did get a late separating touchdown to put the game on ice. Bay Area’s 30-20 road win in the “Battle of California” actually comes with an interesting aftermath: With San Diego tumbling to the fourth seed, we do get a fifth installment in this series next Sunday at SAP Center. Grab a seat and some treats!
• NAZ @ DUKE – UNDER 94.5 [LOSS]
FIFTY. ONE. Fourth-quarter points. That’s it, that’s the analysis. Our quest for a record-setting seventh win of the week started rocky, with a fast 32 points in the first quarter casting some serious doubt on this wager in a game that could have seen both teams just half-heartedly playing out the string in an ultimately meaningless game. We even got the NAZ quarterback change we had predicted, and with a slight lull in scoring plays throughout the third quarter, even with a flurry of deuces from Ernesto Lacayo, the fourth quarter still started with just 66 points, requiring 29 points to put us on the wrong side. With some big plays both ways, the quarter reached 30 points with four full minutes left to spare. It stands as both a hilarious and sad way to lose the last regular season slip of 2024, but at least it will be memorable for a long time. Duke City’s unwavering perseverance finally pays off in their much-deserved 69-48 win over the Wranglers, putting an end to the 2024 Regular Season.
Heavens, what a way to close out 2024! Against all odds after a rather terrible start, we rescue a winning season-long mark capped off by a six-win week in the Regular Season finale! Everything went largely our way for the most part, with just San Antonio’s seven-point loss and the last 15 minutes of Wranglers/Gladiators as the two exceptions. To put this finish in perspective, we entered Week 14 eight games below .500 at 37-45-1. From that point on, our slips went 27-17-1. We had hinted at the need to win roughly 60% of the slips in that stretch (considered the gold standard of win percentage for several experts) – and the final six weeks saw us hit on about 61% as winners! We had to go Super Saiyan to earn the winning season, and that’s precisely what we did! This week, our $80 budget grew into $114.38 for the flat method and $116.32 for the weighted method, resulting in net gains of +$34.38 (flat) and +$36.32 (weighted). Our year-to-date record finished above .500, where it stands for the first time since Week 3, at 64-62-2; however, we still end the season at a slight net loss on the dollars. The flat method ended down by -$51.43, outperforming the weighted method which clocked in at -$59.33. Considering that we were downward trending as far as -13% ROI at our lowest point, the fact that we came all the way back to end at just -4% ROI is immensely impressive. Put it this way; if you missed my first 13 weeks and started to tail me from Week 14 on, you’re looking at an ROI of roughly +11%, just a shade shy of the 12% mark we managed in total in 2023!
We tried for the motherlode in our final regular season parlay attempt of 2024 – and in what turned out to be yet another fantastic week to pick some underdogs, we again picked one incorrectly to ruin the fun. Tulsa (+145 ML) whipped the Pirates, while the Panthers (+124 ML) struck down San Diego, but ultimately our pick of the Gunslingers at +154 was the bad apple that spoiled the bunch. Annoyingly, I was going to replace that pick last minute with Sharks ML at +145 (which cashed, surprise-surprise), but we all wanted to manifest a Gunslingers historic win. Sadly, that didn’t happen this time around, and it cost us dearly. We took aim at the start of the season to nab four parlay wins, and we finish with… one. For the full season, our parlay attempts returned a net loss of -$125.02. For posterity, we will make one last attempt for this first round playoff game set, but aside from Week 10, our parlay luck was nonexistent in 2024. Nine attempts came up just one leg short, and we won more individual legs than we lost (28 wins, 23 losses, one push). In almost any other sequence of wins-losses, we’d probably wind up with at least one more parlay win on average. I’m hopeful that next season will see some regression to the mean resulting in more parlay victories in the future! Trust the math, as we have done this whole time!
After 128 games, we have reduced the IFL field from sixteen teams to eight, and those playoff teams will start their trek to Henderson this weekend, including some first-timers in the Knight Hawks and Strike Force in the Western Conference! The question becomes: Who hits that three-game winning streak from this point? Will the Panthers be the league’s first repeat champion since Sioux Falls’ six-year run from 2011-2016? Can the surprising odds-on favorite Blizzard claim their first ever trophy and bring it back to Titletown? Which dark horses could steal the show and make that Cinderella run to greatness? It’s time to lock in, and see if we can generate a winning record with the seven-game postseason slate, something that actually escaped us in 2023. With all that said, let’s take a look at the lines!
Friday 7/26, 8:05 PM ET
Quad City @ Green Bay (-9.5)
Over/Under 86.5
Moneyline: QC +340, GB -440
Alec’s Projected Chance of Victory: Green Bay in 88% of simulations
A superb local rivalry gets a fourth chapter in 2024, with the fourth-seeded Steamwheelers bound for the Resch Center, where the title-favorite Blizzard will await them. Green Bay should get a resounding surge in what will be their first home game since June 14, and in a venue where their average game margin was +16.5 during the regular season, the Blizzard have the opportunity to stomp out Quad City early and set them in their place. Interesting tidbit about the Steamwheelers, though, is that they do have a win against Green Bay under their belt (along with wins versus Frisco and Mass for that matter), and have played two games in which they’ve held the Blizzard to 32 and 27 points. So even though this is a road game, where Quad City is just 2-6 this season, there exists tangible proof of a deceptively sneaky matchup to watch for as this game progresses. And in the playoffs, sometimes it’s all about matchups. Green Bay’s number-one defense, on the other hand, lines up well with just about any offense out there, and whoever leads the QB carousel this week between Judd Erickson and Mike Irwin will need to make some serious magic happen in order to have any hope of the upset. Their largest scoring output out of the three games against Green Bay this season rests at just 37 points, and in a playoff setting it would certainly surprise me if they were able to surpass that. Even at this relatively modest total, I foresee this number too high for this type of playoff game, particularly between two teams who are both 5-1 to the Under in their last six. Play the dark side of the Steamwheelers/Blizzard implied total.
The Pick: UNDER 86.5, $7 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Blizzard 49 – Steamwheelers 34
LINE CHANGE: Originally opening for a split second at GB -10.5, the line sat at the posted -9.5 for the majority of the week. Shortly prior to kickoff, the spread jumped to GB -11. Moneyline has changed to QC +370 and GB -485. Changes effective as of Friday 7/26 at 7:20pm ET.
Saturday 7/27, 7:05 PM ET
Massachusetts @ Frisco (-9.5)
Over/Under 93.5
Moneyline: MASS +300, FRI -380
Alec’s Projected Chance of Victory: Frisco in 77% of simulations
Since 2021, this rivalry has been quietly among the very best in the IFL, and the Pirates and Fighters seek to add to that lore on Saturday evening. More than ever, Frisco must fight the exponentially increasing pressure of delivering a championship to the suburbs of Dallas. That’s a weird thing to say about a team that has lost just 13 games in FOUR full seasons of play (out of 66 games), and even more astounding to realize they actually haven’t even participated in a Title Game yet. Their first step towards the Promised Land this year will come against a Massachusetts team that historically has accounted for four of those 13 all-time Frisco defeats. If there’s any team that has proven they can make a genuine run at another staggering Frisco upset, even with their shortcomings, it would be the Pirates. And if their third-ranked defense can put the stops on T.J. Edwards and the Fighters’ electric running game (which has lost Justin Rankin north of the border), they’d be firmly in business to add another chapter to Frisco’s anthology of playoff collapses. I feel my mind desperately trying to convince me to fade the Bay State Buccos and their 2-14-1 all-time road spread record, but I’m not going to resist this handicap in a playoff environment that should give us a close-ish game. For context, the lone meeting between these two teams in Frisco on June 1 was a four-point Fighters win, which also marked the Pirates’ first ever road cover after starting the legalized betting era a baffling 0-13 in that category. Take the Pirate points and back them to repeat that feat at Comerica Center.
The Pick: Massachusetts +9.5 Spread, $12 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Fighters 49 – Pirates 41
Saturday 7/27, 10:05 PM ET
Arizona @ Vegas (-4.5)
Over/Under 96.5
Moneyline: ARI +140, VGS -166
Alec’s Projected Chance of Victory: Vegas in 65% of simulations
Saturday’s doubleheader continues late into the night, with the playoff debut of the third-year Vegas Knight Hawks against a tried-and-true Arizona Rattlers team that’s known nothing but playoff appearances since 2008. Bettors for this game will have to take a side of the classic Scott Van Pelt debate; back the youngsters or the vets that have been there before? As tempted as I am to respond by saying, “It’s the playoffs”, there are a few elements to this game worth discussing. For starters, Arizona will be trotting out the defending IFL Championship MVP Dalton Sneed, who cemented his championship legacy in this building last August. His presence, along with a defense that is a week removed from a stellar performance in San Antonio, gives a Rattlers upset pick a ton of merit. On the flip side, though, it’s so hard to bet against Ja’rome Johnson and the similarly sky-high upside of the Knight Hawk offense. In particular, their elite running game figures to be a strength against Arizona, who ranked among the worst teams in rush defense throughout the regular season. If the Knight Hawks activate Antonio Wimbush from Short-Term IR, that just gives them another weapon to help them capitalize on that matchup. Although the two regular season matchups were both decided by Vegas, the combined margin was just seven points in those wins. And we know how the playoff dynamic varies greatly from the 16-game regular season grind, and I believe that translates once more to defense shining brighter than most people might initially believe, and we get another instance where both teams have been leaning more towards Unders to close out the season (ARI 4-2 U in L6, VGS 5-2 U in L7). Play Rattlers/Hawks “Under”.
The Pick: UNDER 96.5, $8 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Knight Hawks 49 – Rattlers 46
Sunday 7/28, 7:05 PM ET
San Diego @ Bay Area (-5)
Over/Under 86.5
Moneyline: SD +160, BAY -192
Alec’s Projected Chance of Victory: Bay Area in 63% of simulations
A Sunday in San Jose sounds like a divine way to close out the opening round of the postseason, and what better matchup than the fifth “Battle of California” which promises to upgrade to a full-scale war with early elimination on the line. Bay Area’s first obstacle to a successful title defense will be the San Diego Strike Force, who like Vegas will get their first-ever experience of postseason play, though lining up against the reigning champs is about as much of a “Trial by Fire” as you can get. Save for last week’s ten-point loss with a skeleton cast, the Strike Force’s other five losses were by a combined 12 points, including a pair of losses to these same Panthers by one and three points. The series does also contain a fairly recent 43-42 decision at SAP Center favoring San Diego, so it’s another situation where a precedent for an upset exists. I anticipate this will be a game where defenses could rule the day, with the Panthers allowing the second-fewest points and the Strike Force leading the IFL in takeaways with 34. Both teams were among the league’s best against the spread as well, with San Diego 10-5-1 and Bay Area not far behind at 9-6-1. The one constant this series has offered: Underdogs have covered in all four games and outright won in each of the last two. While it is scary to bet against the Panthers at SAP Center, all three of their losses have amazingly come on home turf. San Diego spread has been a cash cow for the betting public, and there exists enough proof with the underlying metrics to confidently test those waters once more. Take the points on the Strike Force.
The Pick: San Diego +5 Spread, $13 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Panthers 44 – Strike Force 41
Recommended Three-Leg Parlay of the Week:
This week will feature our final attempt at a three-leg parlay win for 2024, as this will be the last with more than three games available for us to select from. There are some interesting options to choose from, and yes, we are holding true to our +400 combined odds requirement. We’ll fuel our selections with selection types that have been high-yield this season, picks that have been spitting out money hand over fist throughout 2024. Does our parlay constructed in this manner stand a chance against the potentially chaotic nature of the playoffs?
1st Leg: Quad City @ Green Bay – Blizzard -9.5 Spread (-118)
2nd Leg: Arizona @ Vegas – Knight Hawks Moneyline (-166)
3rd Leg: San Diego @ Bay Area – UNDER 86.5 (-110)
Total Odds: +465 [$10.00 wager, Max Payout $56.51]
Here’s a look as well at the Futures market, for anyone seeking to lock in their pick now for the winner of the IFL Championship Game on August 17! Odds decreases from last week will be indicated in red, and increases in green.
Green Bay Blizzard: +220
Frisco Fighters: +320
Bay Area Panthers: +360
Vegas Knight Hawks: +650
Arizona Rattlers: +900
San Diego Strike Force: +1000
Massachusetts Pirates: +1500
Quad City Steamwheelers: +2800
Most Likely Future to Cash: Green Bay Blizzard (+220)
When I had my model run a 1000-iteration simulation of the postseason, Green Bay came out as the Champions in over 30% of outcomes, so even at their meager payout, bettors should feel fairly comfortable if they choose the way of the Blizzard. Their only considerable obstacles before the championship figures to be Frisco in the East Final (unless Mass pulls the upset, which would only enhance Green Bay’s on-paper chances), along with the fact that their track record contains no action from Western teams. That’s a “deal with it when we get to it” situation, though, and I have Green Bay favored against all four Western teams anyways in hypothetical championship matchups.
Highest Expected Value Future: Vegas Knight Hawks (+650)
The Hawks’ first ever postseason appearance carries with it an interesting scenario: If the Knight Hawks start their playoff history with a pair of wins in these next two weeks, it’s inadvertent home-turf advantage for the Title Game! I do factor that potential home swing into the model (though it’s slightly more abbreviated on a per game basis than regular season), but even with a small home-turf slider, Vegas carries a 15% chance to win it all currently, and at +650 makes a Vegas title a terrific speculative play.
Don’t forget to tune in later this evening for my video coverage of Wager Wednesday, which can be found here. My plan is to start tonight’s stream around 10pm ET/7pm PT. If you’re free at that time, swing by if you have the chance!
Good luck to all you bettors out there; and let’s print out the big bucks!!
Welcome to Volume XL of my Wager Wednesday series, in which I examine the current landscape of the upcoming week’s games, based on lines and odds from DraftKings Sportsbook (unless otherwise stated). As an advocate of accountability, I will recap my results - whether genius or moronic - from the prior week as well. With that, let's see how my picks from last week turned out:
• MASS @ TUL – TUL +4.5 Spread [$19.09 flat win, $24.82 weighted win]
It’s the end of the regular season, so I have to make this pun, as horrible as it is… This pick was slicker than an oil spill! Even with no immediate rewards outside of the thrill of victory in store for the Oilers, Tulsa gave their fans every reason to cheer as they grabbed this game by the horns and never looked back. As soon as Massachusetts trailed by ten points in the second quarter, they thought better than to chase the game, calling off the dogs and giving Connor Degenhardt mop-up duties while prioritizing the health of Alejandro Bennifield, Jimmie Robinson, and Thomas Owens (inactive), while Isaac Zico was merely a decoy for this one. We probably should have gone with moneyline in hindsight, but at least we made that choice on the three-leg parlay, giving it at least a little love. Tulsa wraps up their season with a fine home win for the second year running, clubbing the Pirates 44-24.
• QC @ JAX – JAX +4 Spread [$19.09 flat win, $17.18 weighted win]
Anyone else have the most exhilarating finish of the week – and perhaps the season – happening in Duval last week?! Certainly not me! The Sharks looked to keep the Steamwheelers situated in the fourth seed, trying to extend their great stretch of football to close out 2024. They got the dream start, scoring the first 14 points of the game and forcing Quad City into chase mode. To the Steamwheelers’ credit, they stayed with it and managed to tie the game at 37 late in the fourth quarter, and even staged a defensive stand late in regulation to set up a potential winner to avoid overtime. Kyle Kaplan, who has nailed as long as a 53-yard winner this season, chunked the 48-yarder short, allowing a chance for a return by Tyler King of the Sharks. He managed to hit the Royal Flush, returning the miss all the way to the house with no time remaining. The wild ending sequence gave Jacksonville the 43-37 win and stomps out any possibility of playoff football in Moline this postseason.
• ARI @ SA – SA +4 Spread [LOSS]
Let’s be honest: Almost everyone not currently entrenched in Rattler Nation wanted to see the Gunslingers potentially contribute to a shot at once-in-a-generation history. A Rattler loss could have prevented them from joining the playoff mix for the first time since the 2007 season in the AFL, at which point a 12-year-old Alec was far too young to legally gamble! With the stakes the highest they’ve been, it was actually the Arizona defense – which has been a decidedly average unit throughout the year – that delivered big and held the Gunslingers explosive offense in check. An interception along with a pair of turnovers on downs was enough to allow the offense to do just enough to separate themselves from their spirited adversaries. In the second-lowest scoring San Antonio game of the season, Arizona takes all doubt out of the equation and clinches the playoffs with a 41-34 road win.
• GB @ SXF – GB -10.5 Spread [$19.09 flat win, $22.91 weighted win]
The power of research and an intimate understanding of situational football quite often paves the path to successful predictions in this game. The Blizzard, seeking the top Eastern seed, just needed to take care of their bottom-dwelling rival Sioux Falls to reach that goal. A 30-7 start to the game was precisely what we wanted to see early in this game, and though the Storm battled back with a quick 15 points in the third quarter, Green Bay reasserted themselves and got back to a comfortable margin well outside of backdoor cover territory. Rookie running back E.J. Burgess wrapped up his OROY-worthy campaign with a nine-catch, 123 yard, two-touchdown evening. His efforts, along with the defense slamming the door shut on the Storm, wraps up Green Bay’s best regular season ever with the 51-30 win. Their sights now are set firmly on the path to their first-ever championship.
• IOWA @ FRI – OVER 94.5 [$18.93 flat win, $15.14 weighted win]
If every “Where’s Eli Mack?” question in the live chat equated to a point scored in the game, this bet probably would have won prior to kickoff. Life don’t work that way, though, so we had to play this game on the field to decide our fate. This was another game where the Over/Under sweat turned into a rollercoaster of emotion, with a blazing first half (58 points) offset by just a seven-point third quarter. All of a sudden, we needed some quick strikes and at least 30 points in the last 15 minutes to make this over. Thankfully, the Barnstormers and Fighters stayed competitive and lit up the scoreboard, with a gorgeous nine-yard slant from Brandon Alt to Quian Williams cashing our wager with just a minute left! And just for good measure, T.J. Edwards added a stat-padding rushing score with no time left as well. Frisco defeats the Barnstormers, 59-47, and they will start their postseason campaign against bitter rival Massachusetts this weekend.
• TUC @ VGS – UNDER 88.5 [$19.09 flat win, $15.27 weighted win]
Ladies and gentlemen, “the streak” has reached its only appropriate conclusion! The Sugar Skulls and Knight Hawks battled in Henderson, with the hometown Hawks having an opportunity to earn a playoff game at home in their postseason debut next weekend. The Over actually had a bit of pulse to this one midway through, with the Hawks ahead 28-18 at halftime for a healthy 46 points. The underrated Vegas defense dialed in for the final 30 minutes, though, allowing just one Tucson touchdown the rest of the way and using their run game to put the finishing touches on the evening. They did so, to the tune of a pivotal 49-25 win to grab the second seed in the West. As for the previously mentioned streak, the regular season ends with EIGHT consecutive Tucson games staying Under the implied total! “Rollover” betting strategists could have placed $10 at the beginning of the streak, rolled over all winnings week after week, and turned those series of wagers into roughly $1,764 at the end!
• BAY @ SD – BAY +3 Spread [$19.09 flat win, $21.00 weighted win]
Partial credit for this win has to go to our “Off the Wall” podcast friends, who inspired me with the “Take Bay Area Spread if they’re given the points” strategy that rushed firmly to the front of my mind when I made this selection. We had expected the Panthers to rest several starters, but Nate Davis was a surprise inactive for this contest, which gave a maligned Darius-James Peterson a spot start for an uplifting feel-good story since his release from Iowa about a month ago. Sadly for Peterson, his fate fell victim to several others who have had the misfortune of lining up against the Panther defense, struggling to move the ball and getting contained to just 20 total points on the night. The Felix Harper-led Panthers weren’t much better, but did get a late separating touchdown to put the game on ice. Bay Area’s 30-20 road win in the “Battle of California” actually comes with an interesting aftermath: With San Diego tumbling to the fourth seed, we do get a fifth installment in this series next Sunday at SAP Center. Grab a seat and some treats!
• NAZ @ DUKE – UNDER 94.5 [LOSS]
FIFTY. ONE. Fourth-quarter points. That’s it, that’s the analysis. Our quest for a record-setting seventh win of the week started rocky, with a fast 32 points in the first quarter casting some serious doubt on this wager in a game that could have seen both teams just half-heartedly playing out the string in an ultimately meaningless game. We even got the NAZ quarterback change we had predicted, and with a slight lull in scoring plays throughout the third quarter, even with a flurry of deuces from Ernesto Lacayo, the fourth quarter still started with just 66 points, requiring 29 points to put us on the wrong side. With some big plays both ways, the quarter reached 30 points with four full minutes left to spare. It stands as both a hilarious and sad way to lose the last regular season slip of 2024, but at least it will be memorable for a long time. Duke City’s unwavering perseverance finally pays off in their much-deserved 69-48 win over the Wranglers, putting an end to the 2024 Regular Season.
Heavens, what a way to close out 2024! Against all odds after a rather terrible start, we rescue a winning season-long mark capped off by a six-win week in the Regular Season finale! Everything went largely our way for the most part, with just San Antonio’s seven-point loss and the last 15 minutes of Wranglers/Gladiators as the two exceptions. To put this finish in perspective, we entered Week 14 eight games below .500 at 37-45-1. From that point on, our slips went 27-17-1. We had hinted at the need to win roughly 60% of the slips in that stretch (considered the gold standard of win percentage for several experts) – and the final six weeks saw us hit on about 61% as winners! We had to go Super Saiyan to earn the winning season, and that’s precisely what we did! This week, our $80 budget grew into $114.38 for the flat method and $116.32 for the weighted method, resulting in net gains of +$34.38 (flat) and +$36.32 (weighted). Our year-to-date record finished above .500, where it stands for the first time since Week 3, at 64-62-2; however, we still end the season at a slight net loss on the dollars. The flat method ended down by -$51.43, outperforming the weighted method which clocked in at -$59.33. Considering that we were downward trending as far as -13% ROI at our lowest point, the fact that we came all the way back to end at just -4% ROI is immensely impressive. Put it this way; if you missed my first 13 weeks and started to tail me from Week 14 on, you’re looking at an ROI of roughly +11%, just a shade shy of the 12% mark we managed in total in 2023!
We tried for the motherlode in our final regular season parlay attempt of 2024 – and in what turned out to be yet another fantastic week to pick some underdogs, we again picked one incorrectly to ruin the fun. Tulsa (+145 ML) whipped the Pirates, while the Panthers (+124 ML) struck down San Diego, but ultimately our pick of the Gunslingers at +154 was the bad apple that spoiled the bunch. Annoyingly, I was going to replace that pick last minute with Sharks ML at +145 (which cashed, surprise-surprise), but we all wanted to manifest a Gunslingers historic win. Sadly, that didn’t happen this time around, and it cost us dearly. We took aim at the start of the season to nab four parlay wins, and we finish with… one. For the full season, our parlay attempts returned a net loss of -$125.02. For posterity, we will make one last attempt for this first round playoff game set, but aside from Week 10, our parlay luck was nonexistent in 2024. Nine attempts came up just one leg short, and we won more individual legs than we lost (28 wins, 23 losses, one push). In almost any other sequence of wins-losses, we’d probably wind up with at least one more parlay win on average. I’m hopeful that next season will see some regression to the mean resulting in more parlay victories in the future! Trust the math, as we have done this whole time!
After 128 games, we have reduced the IFL field from sixteen teams to eight, and those playoff teams will start their trek to Henderson this weekend, including some first-timers in the Knight Hawks and Strike Force in the Western Conference! The question becomes: Who hits that three-game winning streak from this point? Will the Panthers be the league’s first repeat champion since Sioux Falls’ six-year run from 2011-2016? Can the surprising odds-on favorite Blizzard claim their first ever trophy and bring it back to Titletown? Which dark horses could steal the show and make that Cinderella run to greatness? It’s time to lock in, and see if we can generate a winning record with the seven-game postseason slate, something that actually escaped us in 2023. With all that said, let’s take a look at the lines!
Friday 7/26, 8:05 PM ET
Quad City @ Green Bay (-9.5)
Over/Under 86.5
Moneyline: QC +340, GB -440
Alec’s Projected Chance of Victory: Green Bay in 88% of simulations
A superb local rivalry gets a fourth chapter in 2024, with the fourth-seeded Steamwheelers bound for the Resch Center, where the title-favorite Blizzard will await them. Green Bay should get a resounding surge in what will be their first home game since June 14, and in a venue where their average game margin was +16.5 during the regular season, the Blizzard have the opportunity to stomp out Quad City early and set them in their place. Interesting tidbit about the Steamwheelers, though, is that they do have a win against Green Bay under their belt (along with wins versus Frisco and Mass for that matter), and have played two games in which they’ve held the Blizzard to 32 and 27 points. So even though this is a road game, where Quad City is just 2-6 this season, there exists tangible proof of a deceptively sneaky matchup to watch for as this game progresses. And in the playoffs, sometimes it’s all about matchups. Green Bay’s number-one defense, on the other hand, lines up well with just about any offense out there, and whoever leads the QB carousel this week between Judd Erickson and Mike Irwin will need to make some serious magic happen in order to have any hope of the upset. Their largest scoring output out of the three games against Green Bay this season rests at just 37 points, and in a playoff setting it would certainly surprise me if they were able to surpass that. Even at this relatively modest total, I foresee this number too high for this type of playoff game, particularly between two teams who are both 5-1 to the Under in their last six. Play the dark side of the Steamwheelers/Blizzard implied total.
The Pick: UNDER 86.5, $7 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Blizzard 49 – Steamwheelers 34
LINE CHANGE: Originally opening for a split second at GB -10.5, the line sat at the posted -9.5 for the majority of the week. Shortly prior to kickoff, the spread jumped to GB -11. Moneyline has changed to QC +370 and GB -485. Changes effective as of Friday 7/26 at 7:20pm ET.
Saturday 7/27, 7:05 PM ET
Massachusetts @ Frisco (-9.5)
Over/Under 93.5
Moneyline: MASS +300, FRI -380
Alec’s Projected Chance of Victory: Frisco in 77% of simulations
Since 2021, this rivalry has been quietly among the very best in the IFL, and the Pirates and Fighters seek to add to that lore on Saturday evening. More than ever, Frisco must fight the exponentially increasing pressure of delivering a championship to the suburbs of Dallas. That’s a weird thing to say about a team that has lost just 13 games in FOUR full seasons of play (out of 66 games), and even more astounding to realize they actually haven’t even participated in a Title Game yet. Their first step towards the Promised Land this year will come against a Massachusetts team that historically has accounted for four of those 13 all-time Frisco defeats. If there’s any team that has proven they can make a genuine run at another staggering Frisco upset, even with their shortcomings, it would be the Pirates. And if their third-ranked defense can put the stops on T.J. Edwards and the Fighters’ electric running game (which has lost Justin Rankin north of the border), they’d be firmly in business to add another chapter to Frisco’s anthology of playoff collapses. I feel my mind desperately trying to convince me to fade the Bay State Buccos and their 2-14-1 all-time road spread record, but I’m not going to resist this handicap in a playoff environment that should give us a close-ish game. For context, the lone meeting between these two teams in Frisco on June 1 was a four-point Fighters win, which also marked the Pirates’ first ever road cover after starting the legalized betting era a baffling 0-13 in that category. Take the Pirate points and back them to repeat that feat at Comerica Center.
The Pick: Massachusetts +9.5 Spread, $12 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Fighters 49 – Pirates 41
Saturday 7/27, 10:05 PM ET
Arizona @ Vegas (-4.5)
Over/Under 96.5
Moneyline: ARI +140, VGS -166
Alec’s Projected Chance of Victory: Vegas in 65% of simulations
Saturday’s doubleheader continues late into the night, with the playoff debut of the third-year Vegas Knight Hawks against a tried-and-true Arizona Rattlers team that’s known nothing but playoff appearances since 2008. Bettors for this game will have to take a side of the classic Scott Van Pelt debate; back the youngsters or the vets that have been there before? As tempted as I am to respond by saying, “It’s the playoffs”, there are a few elements to this game worth discussing. For starters, Arizona will be trotting out the defending IFL Championship MVP Dalton Sneed, who cemented his championship legacy in this building last August. His presence, along with a defense that is a week removed from a stellar performance in San Antonio, gives a Rattlers upset pick a ton of merit. On the flip side, though, it’s so hard to bet against Ja’rome Johnson and the similarly sky-high upside of the Knight Hawk offense. In particular, their elite running game figures to be a strength against Arizona, who ranked among the worst teams in rush defense throughout the regular season. If the Knight Hawks activate Antonio Wimbush from Short-Term IR, that just gives them another weapon to help them capitalize on that matchup. Although the two regular season matchups were both decided by Vegas, the combined margin was just seven points in those wins. And we know how the playoff dynamic varies greatly from the 16-game regular season grind, and I believe that translates once more to defense shining brighter than most people might initially believe, and we get another instance where both teams have been leaning more towards Unders to close out the season (ARI 4-2 U in L6, VGS 5-2 U in L7). Play Rattlers/Hawks “Under”.
The Pick: UNDER 96.5, $8 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Knight Hawks 49 – Rattlers 46
Sunday 7/28, 7:05 PM ET
San Diego @ Bay Area (-5)
Over/Under 86.5
Moneyline: SD +160, BAY -192
Alec’s Projected Chance of Victory: Bay Area in 63% of simulations
A Sunday in San Jose sounds like a divine way to close out the opening round of the postseason, and what better matchup than the fifth “Battle of California” which promises to upgrade to a full-scale war with early elimination on the line. Bay Area’s first obstacle to a successful title defense will be the San Diego Strike Force, who like Vegas will get their first-ever experience of postseason play, though lining up against the reigning champs is about as much of a “Trial by Fire” as you can get. Save for last week’s ten-point loss with a skeleton cast, the Strike Force’s other five losses were by a combined 12 points, including a pair of losses to these same Panthers by one and three points. The series does also contain a fairly recent 43-42 decision at SAP Center favoring San Diego, so it’s another situation where a precedent for an upset exists. I anticipate this will be a game where defenses could rule the day, with the Panthers allowing the second-fewest points and the Strike Force leading the IFL in takeaways with 34. Both teams were among the league’s best against the spread as well, with San Diego 10-5-1 and Bay Area not far behind at 9-6-1. The one constant this series has offered: Underdogs have covered in all four games and outright won in each of the last two. While it is scary to bet against the Panthers at SAP Center, all three of their losses have amazingly come on home turf. San Diego spread has been a cash cow for the betting public, and there exists enough proof with the underlying metrics to confidently test those waters once more. Take the points on the Strike Force.
The Pick: San Diego +5 Spread, $13 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Panthers 44 – Strike Force 41
Recommended Three-Leg Parlay of the Week:
This week will feature our final attempt at a three-leg parlay win for 2024, as this will be the last with more than three games available for us to select from. There are some interesting options to choose from, and yes, we are holding true to our +400 combined odds requirement. We’ll fuel our selections with selection types that have been high-yield this season, picks that have been spitting out money hand over fist throughout 2024. Does our parlay constructed in this manner stand a chance against the potentially chaotic nature of the playoffs?
1st Leg: Quad City @ Green Bay – Blizzard -9.5 Spread (-118)
2nd Leg: Arizona @ Vegas – Knight Hawks Moneyline (-166)
3rd Leg: San Diego @ Bay Area – UNDER 86.5 (-110)
Total Odds: +465 [$10.00 wager, Max Payout $56.51]
Here’s a look as well at the Futures market, for anyone seeking to lock in their pick now for the winner of the IFL Championship Game on August 17! Odds decreases from last week will be indicated in red, and increases in green.
Green Bay Blizzard: +220
Frisco Fighters: +320
Bay Area Panthers: +360
Vegas Knight Hawks: +650
Arizona Rattlers: +900
San Diego Strike Force: +1000
Massachusetts Pirates: +1500
Quad City Steamwheelers: +2800
Most Likely Future to Cash: Green Bay Blizzard (+220)
When I had my model run a 1000-iteration simulation of the postseason, Green Bay came out as the Champions in over 30% of outcomes, so even at their meager payout, bettors should feel fairly comfortable if they choose the way of the Blizzard. Their only considerable obstacles before the championship figures to be Frisco in the East Final (unless Mass pulls the upset, which would only enhance Green Bay’s on-paper chances), along with the fact that their track record contains no action from Western teams. That’s a “deal with it when we get to it” situation, though, and I have Green Bay favored against all four Western teams anyways in hypothetical championship matchups.
Highest Expected Value Future: Vegas Knight Hawks (+650)
The Hawks’ first ever postseason appearance carries with it an interesting scenario: If the Knight Hawks start their playoff history with a pair of wins in these next two weeks, it’s inadvertent home-turf advantage for the Title Game! I do factor that potential home swing into the model (though it’s slightly more abbreviated on a per game basis than regular season), but even with a small home-turf slider, Vegas carries a 15% chance to win it all currently, and at +650 makes a Vegas title a terrific speculative play.
Don’t forget to tune in later this evening for my video coverage of Wager Wednesday, which can be found here. My plan is to start tonight’s stream around 10pm ET/7pm PT. If you’re free at that time, swing by if you have the chance!
Good luck to all you bettors out there; and let’s print out the big bucks!!