Post by alecs on Apr 10, 2024 11:26:57 GMT -8
Happy Wednesday, IFL Fans!
Welcome to Volume XXV of my “Wager Wednesday” bit, in which I examine the current landscape of the upcoming week’s games, based on lines and odds from DraftKings Sportsbook (unless otherwise stated). As an advocate of accountability, I will recap my results - whether genius or moronic - from the prior week as well. With that, let's see how my picks from last week turned out:
• BAY @ JAX – JAX +8.5 Spread [LOSS]
This one looked reasonably solid early, with the Sharks playing a very good first quarter. Unfortunately for the Sharks, everything went downhill for them after going empty on a possession following a takeaway while ahead 12-7. Bay Area would spend the next quarter-and-a-half exhibiting their dominance, to the tune of a 28-0 run before Jacksonville next scored. Backup Felix Harper even got in some snaps in mop-up duty in what became our first true blowout of the season. The reigning IFL Champs easily dispatched the 2023 NAL title-holders, with the Panthers cruising to a victory in the IFL/NAL SuperCup, 48-24.
• NAZ @ SA – SA +105 Moneyline [LOSS]
Some more rootin’ tootin’ shootin’ in the second installment of Gunslingers IFL football, with both teams reaching the 50-point mark once more. The teams traded punches early, but it would be the visiting Wranglers who won the takeaway battle, which allowed them to distance themselves and force San Antonio to play catch-up. Had it not been for a sudden San Antonio surge late, this could have potentially been the second big blowout of the evening, with Dillon Sterling-Cole relieving Joshua Jones at quarterback late in the fourth. A buzzer-beating touchdown at the gun (get it?) by San Antonio made the score appear closer, but for us does not change this wager’s fate. Northern Arizona collects win number two by way of this 57-50 win.
• GB @ QC – QC -205 Moneyline [LOSS]
Alas, as it turns out, we simply selected the wrong underdog this week. I suppose this is what I get for talking myself into a “punt” play on an IFL bet. The Blizzard came into Moline ready to do battle and sapped all the energy out of the MARK when they dashed out to an early 20-3 lead, virtually freezing the Steamwheeler offense in place. Quad City didn’t quit, though, eventually finding its rhythm and cutting the Green Bay lead down to two points late, with an opportunity to take the lead late. The potential winning drive was held out of the endzone, though, and a missed field goal put all QC bets on life support. The Steamwheelers would get another chance down eight, but again came up short as time expired. In an unusual outcome for this all-time series, it is the Blizzard stealing the road win by a count of 32-24.
• IOWA @ TUL – OVER 77.5 [LOSS]
These two teams have started out the season with a bit of a rough-and-tumble approach, leaning more upon their defenses in the early going while hoping their lagging offenses can catch up. The Oiler defense in particular made life miserable for D.J. Peterson and the Barnstormers, who wouldn’t get into the endzone until the seven-minute mark of the third quarter. Collectively, the two teams just had way too many missed opportunities with their possessions, often settling for field goals or turning the ball over at inopportune times. In the end, a late surge was not enough to bring the total across, with the Oilers working their way to a 39-31 triumph, their first of the season. The total of 70 points left us short by a touchdown and deuce, and is the first game of the past two years that wasn’t a Tucson/NAZ matchup to stay under a point total when set in the 70’s.
• TUC @ DUKE – DUKE +4.5 [LOSS]
Frustratingly, this bet actually had the best chance at victory late, even though Tucson firmly established itself as the better team throughout this game. The Sugar Skulls’ dominance on offense, coupled with too many turnovers from Duke City’s unit, put this wager behind the eight-ball until the Gladiators recovered an onside kick while down seven points. But inside the one-minute warning, it would be another turnover from a questionable Javin Kilgo interception to cook the wager. Tucson rebounds from its opening-day loss with a resilient 56-49 effort over the Duke City Gladiators, who now sit at 0-3 and need to find some answers quickly to save their season.
Woah, boy. We have achieved an all-time first for the Wager Wednesday series - but in no way, shape, or form is it the history we wanted to make. Week 4 of 2024 will go down as the infamous first-ever instance of the winless week, with all five of our slips heading to the shredder. What a despondent way to negate and overweigh every bit of our hard-gained momentum from the first three weeks of the season. The disgusting string of outcomes saw our $50 budget completely burned up, with absolutely nothing to show for our selections. Overall this season, our single-game betting record is 9-10, as the flat method has resulted in a net loss of -$17.76 (ROI -9.35%), and the weighted method has returned a net loss of -$21.49 (ROI -11.31%). The flat method still remains ahead, but with both now in the negative for the full-year, the task is set to find some winners quickly and bring our record back above .500 where it belongs! Remember, we put together winning weeks (50% win-loss rate or better) in 15 of the past 16 regular season weeks leading up to this one, so it’s important not to get too caught up in this outlier, as shocking and rattling as it was. Luckily for us, we will have an opportunity to respond the right way this week.
Had it not been for the scoring slugfest in San Antonio, where the Wranglers and Gunslingers went over 97.5 total points (we had the Under for this one), it would have actually been a win on our Three-Leg Parlay, which admittedly would have taken the sting out a bit from this week. But it didn’t matter; even with Green Bay covering (at +6.5), and Tucson winning outright, the NAZ/SA leg doomed us. That makes us 0-for-3 on parlays, and a net loss of $30 with those attempts. Last week saw the bottom completely fall out from beneath us across the board, so perhaps luck will smile upon us this week to see one of these parlays through.
Our redemption tour takes the form of a six-game card for Week 5. Green Bay, Jacksonville, Northern Arizona, and Duke City will sit out this week, while the remaining 12 teams go at it. We have two games under the lights of Friday night, a standalone Saturday game, and a Sunday tripleheader lined up to entertain us. Will our road to recovery get kickstarted this week, or will more surprises steal the show and keep us at bay? Time to fight back!
Friday 4/12, 7:05 PM ET
Iowa @ Massachusetts (-14.5)
Over/Under 81.5
Moneyline: <NONE>
The season-opening road trip for the Barnstormers continues, and their bid for a first win in 2024 does not get any easier facing a rested Pirates team seeking to close out a perfect home stand before embarking on the road for the next month. Iowa is still waiting for the return of D.J. Peterson to jump start an offense that struggled without him last year, as Peterson and his teammates have yet to really get acclimated to each other’s tendencies. Nonetheless, they’ve been the least potent offensive attack in the league so far (25.0 points per ten possessions), and that challenge may continue in Lowell against a Pirates defense yielding just 34.0 points per contest in their first three. At home, the Pirates have taken every game in this series by 36, 14, and 20 points. If they’re able to set the tone early on both sides of the ball, it could be another long night for Iowa in the Bay State.
The Pick: Massachusetts -14.5 Spread, $11 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Pirates 52 – Barnstormers 32
Friday 4/12, 10:05 PM ET
San Antonio @ Vegas (-7.5)
Over/Under 102.5
Moneyline: SA +220, VGS -275
Friday’s second game of the evening will see the Knight Hawks attempt to improve their perfect start to 3-0, hosting a San Antonio team that remains in search of its first win as an IFL franchise. The Guns have unquestionably been the league’s most entertaining of the remaining winless teams, with both of their games lighting up the scoreboard for over 100 points apiece. Needless to say, offense hasn’t been the problem for them (46.25 points per ten possessions, 4th in IFL) – but the defense has yet to adapt to the speed and nuance of the league (52.50 points allowed per ten possessions, most in IFL). Vegas, meanwhile, checks in at roughly league-average in most of the advanced metric categories. Quarterback Ja’rome Johnson, who left the game against the Sharks due to injury two weeks ago, is expected to be ready for this game. If active, he should have no trouble getting back to his explosive ways against an attackable Gunslingers defense. That said, Knight Hawk games in Henderson are 6-3 to the Under dating back to last year, and games at 102.5 or above are 13-4 to the Under in that same span. Play San Antonio/Vegas “Under”, as I believe both teams will tailor their game plans to focus on halting the other.
The Pick: UNDER 102.5, $8 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Knight Hawks 51 – Gunslingers 42
Saturday 4/13, 8:05 PM ET
Quad City @ Frisco (-11.5)
Over/Under 84.5
Moneyline: <NONE>
Saturday will mark the Steamwheelers’ return to Comerica Center, where their season ended last year on a lopsided defeat to the Fighters. And it will take a seismic upset, much like their stunner in the 2022 playoffs, in order to stay above .500 for the season. The Fighters enter this one at 2-0, even though those wins did not come by the usual curb-stomping domination we’ve been accustomed to seeing. They’ve still got T.J. Edwards, and we have seen the ability for the Fighters to reach a higher ceiling, particularly when he gets his favorite receiver Phazione McClurge back from injury. This will also be the first road start for Judd Erickson of Quad City, adding to the challenge of providing a spark to this offense. If Frisco’s defense is able to gum up the gears of Quad City, we may finally get a home cover from them.
The Pick: Frisco -11.5 Spread, $13 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Fighters 50 – Steamwheelers 35
Sunday 4/14, 4:05 PM ET
Tulsa @ Sioux Falls (-1.5)
Over/Under 77.5
Moneyline: TUL -102, SXF -118
Very interesting matchup in the Dakotas to lead off Sunday night’s action, with the Oilers looking to get above the .500 mark for the first time in the franchise’s brief history, and Sioux Falls trying to avoid a winless 0-3 start in their home opener. Thus far, Tulsa has looked very much the part of a team that can compete, evidenced by their effort at Frisco where they led the majority of that game despite dropping it in overtime. The Oiler defense, which has started strong, should be tested well by the likes of Billy Hall, Xavier Jackson, and Kentrez Bell. And as long as the Oilers can take care of the football (just one regulation turnover in first two games), they should have enough in the tank to put up some points and string together a fairly complete game that remains close all the way through. We got burned by betting the over on a 77.5 game last week – which fittingly involved the Oilers. But with so much early-season momentum on the line, I’m returning to the well here, putting my trust in the greater body of results rather than a single outlier.
The Pick: OVER 77.5, $8 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Storm 45 – Oilers 38
LINE CHANGE: Sioux Falls spread changed to -2.5 from -1.5. Moneyline changed to TUL +110, SXF -130. Both changes effective as of 4/13 at 11:55pm ET.
Sunday 4/14, 6:05 PM ET
Bay Area (-7) @ Tucson
Over/Under 95.5
Moneyline: BAY -285, TUC +230
Great matchup in store for us at the Boneyard, with the Sugar Skulls opening the doors at home in 2024 against the reigning champions, who are off to a convincing 2-0 start. We will see if Mylik Mitchell can continue his blazing start to the season versus Daquan Neal and the Panthers, who return to the West Coast following a beatdown of the Jacksonville Sharks last week. In a matchup of two highly efficient offenses (BAY 1st in pts/10poss, TUC 3rd in pts/10poss), early indications point to a classic shootout in this playoff rematch. These playoff-hopefuls should trade punch-for-punch based on what we’ve seen so far from them, and Bay Area could very well be forced to play with more pace than the 9.5 possessions per game they’ve had in their first two contests (league average is 10.5 so far). This is a relatively large number, to be sure, but one that these powerhouses can certainly meet.
The Pick: OVER 95.5, $8 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Panthers 54 – Sugar Skulls 49
LINE CHANGE: Bay Area spread changed to -7.5 from -7. Moneyline changed to BAY -290, TUC +235. Both changes effective as of 4/13 at 11:55pm ET.
Sunday 4/14, 6:05 PM ET
San Diego @ Arizona (-2.5)
Over/Under 96.5
Moneyline: SD +102, ARI -122
Critical game for the Rattlers, who hope that the bye week provided a time of healing, particularly for Dalton Sneed, who has not suited up since his injury on opening week. Strike Force also fresh off a bye to put their 2-0 record to the test in Glendale. It’s another matchup between two high-end offenses, and this one could also be tracking towards shootout territory. Not sure, however, that is the path that Kevin Guy wants to take amidst the Rattlers’ uncertainty at QB. He’s had a successful history of being able to limit Nate Davis the past few seasons, particularly at home. A Rattler win here would thus very likely be fueled by defensive stands and takeaways, and Lorenzo Brown has played admirably filling in for Sneed. Not often do we get the Rattlers as anything less than a touchdown favorite, so 2.5 is a terrific number to lock in now. And considering my model is predicting a nearly double-digit margin, the call here is to back the favorite and lay the deuce and the hook.
The Pick: Arizona -2.5 Spread, $12 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Rattlers 52 – Strike Force 43
LINE CHANGE: Arizona spread changed to -3 from -2.5. Moneyline changed to SD +124, ARI -148. O/U changed to 98.5 from 96.5. All changes effective as of 4/14 at 12:15pm ET.
Recommended Three-Leg Parlay of the Week:
After three failed attempts so far, this week I’m going to try to put something together with the best chance to cash. Consider it a “Just See-It Through” attempt, if you will, but I will stick to my +400 odds criteria to retain enough challenge to this to keep myself honest. So let’s see if this trio comes up all green:
1st leg: San Antonio @ Vegas – Knight Hawks Moneyline (-270)
2nd leg: Tulsa @ Sioux Falls – Storm -1.5 Spread (-110)
3rd leg: Bay Area @ Tucson – Panthers -7 Spread (-105)
Total Odds: +410 [$10.00 wager, Max Payout $51.07]
Here’s a look as well at the Futures market, for anyone seeking to predict the winner of the 2024 IFL Championship Game (August 17th) well in advance! Odds decreases from last week will be indicated in red, and increases in green.
Frisco Fighters: +350
Massachusetts Pirates: +450
Bay Area Panthers: +475
Arizona Rattlers: +600
San Diego Strike Force: +800
Vegas Knight Hawks: +900
Tucson Sugar Skulls: +1000
Northern Arizona Wranglers: +1300
Green Bay Blizzard: +1500
San Antonio Gunslingers: +1800
Quad City Steamwheelers: +1800
Sioux Falls Storm: +1800
Jacksonville Sharks: +2500
Tulsa Oilers: +3500
Iowa Barnstormers: +4000
Duke City Gladiators: +4000
Don’t forget to tune in later this evening for my video coverage of Wager Wednesday, which can be found here. Again, I’ll be going live at around 10pm ET/7pm PT, so swing by if you have the chance!
Good luck to all you bettors out there; and let’s print out the big bucks!! You know, unlike last week’s disaster…
Welcome to Volume XXV of my “Wager Wednesday” bit, in which I examine the current landscape of the upcoming week’s games, based on lines and odds from DraftKings Sportsbook (unless otherwise stated). As an advocate of accountability, I will recap my results - whether genius or moronic - from the prior week as well. With that, let's see how my picks from last week turned out:
• BAY @ JAX – JAX +8.5 Spread [LOSS]
This one looked reasonably solid early, with the Sharks playing a very good first quarter. Unfortunately for the Sharks, everything went downhill for them after going empty on a possession following a takeaway while ahead 12-7. Bay Area would spend the next quarter-and-a-half exhibiting their dominance, to the tune of a 28-0 run before Jacksonville next scored. Backup Felix Harper even got in some snaps in mop-up duty in what became our first true blowout of the season. The reigning IFL Champs easily dispatched the 2023 NAL title-holders, with the Panthers cruising to a victory in the IFL/NAL SuperCup, 48-24.
• NAZ @ SA – SA +105 Moneyline [LOSS]
Some more rootin’ tootin’ shootin’ in the second installment of Gunslingers IFL football, with both teams reaching the 50-point mark once more. The teams traded punches early, but it would be the visiting Wranglers who won the takeaway battle, which allowed them to distance themselves and force San Antonio to play catch-up. Had it not been for a sudden San Antonio surge late, this could have potentially been the second big blowout of the evening, with Dillon Sterling-Cole relieving Joshua Jones at quarterback late in the fourth. A buzzer-beating touchdown at the gun (get it?) by San Antonio made the score appear closer, but for us does not change this wager’s fate. Northern Arizona collects win number two by way of this 57-50 win.
• GB @ QC – QC -205 Moneyline [LOSS]
Alas, as it turns out, we simply selected the wrong underdog this week. I suppose this is what I get for talking myself into a “punt” play on an IFL bet. The Blizzard came into Moline ready to do battle and sapped all the energy out of the MARK when they dashed out to an early 20-3 lead, virtually freezing the Steamwheeler offense in place. Quad City didn’t quit, though, eventually finding its rhythm and cutting the Green Bay lead down to two points late, with an opportunity to take the lead late. The potential winning drive was held out of the endzone, though, and a missed field goal put all QC bets on life support. The Steamwheelers would get another chance down eight, but again came up short as time expired. In an unusual outcome for this all-time series, it is the Blizzard stealing the road win by a count of 32-24.
• IOWA @ TUL – OVER 77.5 [LOSS]
These two teams have started out the season with a bit of a rough-and-tumble approach, leaning more upon their defenses in the early going while hoping their lagging offenses can catch up. The Oiler defense in particular made life miserable for D.J. Peterson and the Barnstormers, who wouldn’t get into the endzone until the seven-minute mark of the third quarter. Collectively, the two teams just had way too many missed opportunities with their possessions, often settling for field goals or turning the ball over at inopportune times. In the end, a late surge was not enough to bring the total across, with the Oilers working their way to a 39-31 triumph, their first of the season. The total of 70 points left us short by a touchdown and deuce, and is the first game of the past two years that wasn’t a Tucson/NAZ matchup to stay under a point total when set in the 70’s.
• TUC @ DUKE – DUKE +4.5 [LOSS]
Frustratingly, this bet actually had the best chance at victory late, even though Tucson firmly established itself as the better team throughout this game. The Sugar Skulls’ dominance on offense, coupled with too many turnovers from Duke City’s unit, put this wager behind the eight-ball until the Gladiators recovered an onside kick while down seven points. But inside the one-minute warning, it would be another turnover from a questionable Javin Kilgo interception to cook the wager. Tucson rebounds from its opening-day loss with a resilient 56-49 effort over the Duke City Gladiators, who now sit at 0-3 and need to find some answers quickly to save their season.
Woah, boy. We have achieved an all-time first for the Wager Wednesday series - but in no way, shape, or form is it the history we wanted to make. Week 4 of 2024 will go down as the infamous first-ever instance of the winless week, with all five of our slips heading to the shredder. What a despondent way to negate and overweigh every bit of our hard-gained momentum from the first three weeks of the season. The disgusting string of outcomes saw our $50 budget completely burned up, with absolutely nothing to show for our selections. Overall this season, our single-game betting record is 9-10, as the flat method has resulted in a net loss of -$17.76 (ROI -9.35%), and the weighted method has returned a net loss of -$21.49 (ROI -11.31%). The flat method still remains ahead, but with both now in the negative for the full-year, the task is set to find some winners quickly and bring our record back above .500 where it belongs! Remember, we put together winning weeks (50% win-loss rate or better) in 15 of the past 16 regular season weeks leading up to this one, so it’s important not to get too caught up in this outlier, as shocking and rattling as it was. Luckily for us, we will have an opportunity to respond the right way this week.
Had it not been for the scoring slugfest in San Antonio, where the Wranglers and Gunslingers went over 97.5 total points (we had the Under for this one), it would have actually been a win on our Three-Leg Parlay, which admittedly would have taken the sting out a bit from this week. But it didn’t matter; even with Green Bay covering (at +6.5), and Tucson winning outright, the NAZ/SA leg doomed us. That makes us 0-for-3 on parlays, and a net loss of $30 with those attempts. Last week saw the bottom completely fall out from beneath us across the board, so perhaps luck will smile upon us this week to see one of these parlays through.
Our redemption tour takes the form of a six-game card for Week 5. Green Bay, Jacksonville, Northern Arizona, and Duke City will sit out this week, while the remaining 12 teams go at it. We have two games under the lights of Friday night, a standalone Saturday game, and a Sunday tripleheader lined up to entertain us. Will our road to recovery get kickstarted this week, or will more surprises steal the show and keep us at bay? Time to fight back!
Friday 4/12, 7:05 PM ET
Iowa @ Massachusetts (-14.5)
Over/Under 81.5
Moneyline: <NONE>
The season-opening road trip for the Barnstormers continues, and their bid for a first win in 2024 does not get any easier facing a rested Pirates team seeking to close out a perfect home stand before embarking on the road for the next month. Iowa is still waiting for the return of D.J. Peterson to jump start an offense that struggled without him last year, as Peterson and his teammates have yet to really get acclimated to each other’s tendencies. Nonetheless, they’ve been the least potent offensive attack in the league so far (25.0 points per ten possessions), and that challenge may continue in Lowell against a Pirates defense yielding just 34.0 points per contest in their first three. At home, the Pirates have taken every game in this series by 36, 14, and 20 points. If they’re able to set the tone early on both sides of the ball, it could be another long night for Iowa in the Bay State.
The Pick: Massachusetts -14.5 Spread, $11 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Pirates 52 – Barnstormers 32
Friday 4/12, 10:05 PM ET
San Antonio @ Vegas (-7.5)
Over/Under 102.5
Moneyline: SA +220, VGS -275
Friday’s second game of the evening will see the Knight Hawks attempt to improve their perfect start to 3-0, hosting a San Antonio team that remains in search of its first win as an IFL franchise. The Guns have unquestionably been the league’s most entertaining of the remaining winless teams, with both of their games lighting up the scoreboard for over 100 points apiece. Needless to say, offense hasn’t been the problem for them (46.25 points per ten possessions, 4th in IFL) – but the defense has yet to adapt to the speed and nuance of the league (52.50 points allowed per ten possessions, most in IFL). Vegas, meanwhile, checks in at roughly league-average in most of the advanced metric categories. Quarterback Ja’rome Johnson, who left the game against the Sharks due to injury two weeks ago, is expected to be ready for this game. If active, he should have no trouble getting back to his explosive ways against an attackable Gunslingers defense. That said, Knight Hawk games in Henderson are 6-3 to the Under dating back to last year, and games at 102.5 or above are 13-4 to the Under in that same span. Play San Antonio/Vegas “Under”, as I believe both teams will tailor their game plans to focus on halting the other.
The Pick: UNDER 102.5, $8 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Knight Hawks 51 – Gunslingers 42
Saturday 4/13, 8:05 PM ET
Quad City @ Frisco (-11.5)
Over/Under 84.5
Moneyline: <NONE>
Saturday will mark the Steamwheelers’ return to Comerica Center, where their season ended last year on a lopsided defeat to the Fighters. And it will take a seismic upset, much like their stunner in the 2022 playoffs, in order to stay above .500 for the season. The Fighters enter this one at 2-0, even though those wins did not come by the usual curb-stomping domination we’ve been accustomed to seeing. They’ve still got T.J. Edwards, and we have seen the ability for the Fighters to reach a higher ceiling, particularly when he gets his favorite receiver Phazione McClurge back from injury. This will also be the first road start for Judd Erickson of Quad City, adding to the challenge of providing a spark to this offense. If Frisco’s defense is able to gum up the gears of Quad City, we may finally get a home cover from them.
The Pick: Frisco -11.5 Spread, $13 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Fighters 50 – Steamwheelers 35
Sunday 4/14, 4:05 PM ET
Tulsa @ Sioux Falls (-1.5)
Over/Under 77.5
Moneyline: TUL -102, SXF -118
Very interesting matchup in the Dakotas to lead off Sunday night’s action, with the Oilers looking to get above the .500 mark for the first time in the franchise’s brief history, and Sioux Falls trying to avoid a winless 0-3 start in their home opener. Thus far, Tulsa has looked very much the part of a team that can compete, evidenced by their effort at Frisco where they led the majority of that game despite dropping it in overtime. The Oiler defense, which has started strong, should be tested well by the likes of Billy Hall, Xavier Jackson, and Kentrez Bell. And as long as the Oilers can take care of the football (just one regulation turnover in first two games), they should have enough in the tank to put up some points and string together a fairly complete game that remains close all the way through. We got burned by betting the over on a 77.5 game last week – which fittingly involved the Oilers. But with so much early-season momentum on the line, I’m returning to the well here, putting my trust in the greater body of results rather than a single outlier.
The Pick: OVER 77.5, $8 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Storm 45 – Oilers 38
LINE CHANGE: Sioux Falls spread changed to -2.5 from -1.5. Moneyline changed to TUL +110, SXF -130. Both changes effective as of 4/13 at 11:55pm ET.
Sunday 4/14, 6:05 PM ET
Bay Area (-7) @ Tucson
Over/Under 95.5
Moneyline: BAY -285, TUC +230
Great matchup in store for us at the Boneyard, with the Sugar Skulls opening the doors at home in 2024 against the reigning champions, who are off to a convincing 2-0 start. We will see if Mylik Mitchell can continue his blazing start to the season versus Daquan Neal and the Panthers, who return to the West Coast following a beatdown of the Jacksonville Sharks last week. In a matchup of two highly efficient offenses (BAY 1st in pts/10poss, TUC 3rd in pts/10poss), early indications point to a classic shootout in this playoff rematch. These playoff-hopefuls should trade punch-for-punch based on what we’ve seen so far from them, and Bay Area could very well be forced to play with more pace than the 9.5 possessions per game they’ve had in their first two contests (league average is 10.5 so far). This is a relatively large number, to be sure, but one that these powerhouses can certainly meet.
The Pick: OVER 95.5, $8 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Panthers 54 – Sugar Skulls 49
LINE CHANGE: Bay Area spread changed to -7.5 from -7. Moneyline changed to BAY -290, TUC +235. Both changes effective as of 4/13 at 11:55pm ET.
Sunday 4/14, 6:05 PM ET
San Diego @ Arizona (-2.5)
Over/Under 96.5
Moneyline: SD +102, ARI -122
Critical game for the Rattlers, who hope that the bye week provided a time of healing, particularly for Dalton Sneed, who has not suited up since his injury on opening week. Strike Force also fresh off a bye to put their 2-0 record to the test in Glendale. It’s another matchup between two high-end offenses, and this one could also be tracking towards shootout territory. Not sure, however, that is the path that Kevin Guy wants to take amidst the Rattlers’ uncertainty at QB. He’s had a successful history of being able to limit Nate Davis the past few seasons, particularly at home. A Rattler win here would thus very likely be fueled by defensive stands and takeaways, and Lorenzo Brown has played admirably filling in for Sneed. Not often do we get the Rattlers as anything less than a touchdown favorite, so 2.5 is a terrific number to lock in now. And considering my model is predicting a nearly double-digit margin, the call here is to back the favorite and lay the deuce and the hook.
The Pick: Arizona -2.5 Spread, $12 weighted
Correct Score Model Prediction: Rattlers 52 – Strike Force 43
LINE CHANGE: Arizona spread changed to -3 from -2.5. Moneyline changed to SD +124, ARI -148. O/U changed to 98.5 from 96.5. All changes effective as of 4/14 at 12:15pm ET.
Recommended Three-Leg Parlay of the Week:
After three failed attempts so far, this week I’m going to try to put something together with the best chance to cash. Consider it a “Just See-It Through” attempt, if you will, but I will stick to my +400 odds criteria to retain enough challenge to this to keep myself honest. So let’s see if this trio comes up all green:
1st leg: San Antonio @ Vegas – Knight Hawks Moneyline (-270)
2nd leg: Tulsa @ Sioux Falls – Storm -1.5 Spread (-110)
3rd leg: Bay Area @ Tucson – Panthers -7 Spread (-105)
Total Odds: +410 [$10.00 wager, Max Payout $51.07]
Here’s a look as well at the Futures market, for anyone seeking to predict the winner of the 2024 IFL Championship Game (August 17th) well in advance! Odds decreases from last week will be indicated in red, and increases in green.
Frisco Fighters: +350
Massachusetts Pirates: +450
Bay Area Panthers: +475
Arizona Rattlers: +600
San Diego Strike Force: +800
Vegas Knight Hawks: +900
Tucson Sugar Skulls: +1000
Northern Arizona Wranglers: +1300
Green Bay Blizzard: +1500
San Antonio Gunslingers: +1800
Quad City Steamwheelers: +1800
Sioux Falls Storm: +1800
Jacksonville Sharks: +2500
Tulsa Oilers: +3500
Iowa Barnstormers: +4000
Duke City Gladiators: +4000
Don’t forget to tune in later this evening for my video coverage of Wager Wednesday, which can be found here. Again, I’ll be going live at around 10pm ET/7pm PT, so swing by if you have the chance!
Good luck to all you bettors out there; and let’s print out the big bucks!! You know, unlike last week’s disaster…